My one and only macro call at the start of the year was to short the dollar, and take part in all the festivities that come with that. Commodities, energy stocks and materials related stocks. That was the biggest portion of my gains thus far this year.
While everyone is dialed into this range in the dollar, zoom out a bit. What lies beneath should be just as interesting as what lies above. The main factor here though is that the dollar was a very crowded trade coming into the year. If this unwinds, this all gets to be pretty fun.
I pointed out the bull trap that took place on Friday, but how this resolves will play a major role moving forward.
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Any thoughts on ALB?
My HF guy asks about that one often. Good sign
Dollar falls, gold up and so goes miners right
everything Im looking at has a similar pattern,…
FSLR earning AH. I don’t like green before earning. Any predictions?
I’ve been asked that every quarter since 2013. No, no prediction. If they offer guidance, and its decent, then it could do well.
My Europe trip is getting more expensive by the minute
Bought VVUS
Trying VRNS here. Risking .40 cents
$OA….would you add to $NK at this level?
If the $IBB trades back above $280, yep
Gold gold gold!! Boom. What a fake out
It will be too late to buy if you wait for indexes to break out to new highs. Load up here.
Lots of supply here — expecting a vacuum if indexes take out highs of the day
Sloppy action so far, i did add a few NFLX puts as insurance since I am long everywhere else.
Hindsight play of the year entering 2016, sell FANG and buy $FANG
Am I chasing if I’m buying oil stocks here? Lol
I have a big basket you can buy from me.
ha no thanks
haha. that’s answer says it all. awesome
OA,
I’m already loaded up with LABU and XBI, but what about RLYP, KITE and ZIOP here?
If you buy them, make sure you set stops and factor risk in advance.
Thanks!
VSLR getting really close to that volume pocket
OA – if one was feeling contrary to the XLE action, would you suggest ERY, or XLE puts, or something else?
When $XLE hits $70, let’s look at $ERY.
Copy. Thank you.
OA,
Just joined AHWOA, what time do webinars start and where can I find the link?
THanks!
Thank you. We start at 4:30 pm ET, and the links can be found here: http://www.ibankcoin.com/afterhours
I reloaded ITM SPY May 20 calls and added AAPL 93 May 20 calls on open. Looking very carefully at GLD calls expiring later this summer.
3:30 train running a little early…
OA,
Is 280 above balance for IBB?
287
And….there’s the aforementioned move thru highs of the day.
Folks should be fully invested here…
What do you mean? Or lots of stuff?
Fully invested = less than 20% cash on sidelines. My sense is that many guys are severely underinvested. Couple that with record short interest and you have a recipe for a runaway market.
There are so many compelling setups with favorable risk:reward’s out there, there is no reason not to have a majority of funds deployed after today.
The long dollar trade already unwound. CFTC has managed money net positions at the smallest long since June 2014 and almost short.
That doesn’t mean the trade could be right, and everyone that rushed to get less long and short the dollar in the past few months can’t reap further gains from here, but short dollar is not a contra-opinion anymore. Everyone is on the short dollar trade. Very few are long. Sentiment on the dollar has changed completely. My Starbucks barista this morning told me to sell the dollar against the yen.
Was she hot?
She had the right attitude. Hot in an nontraditional way.
FCX wants higher….a lot higher
I was having an epic day but am catching a few tails pointed in the wrong direction.
OA, are you in FB for earning trade? I am long for years. Thanks.
Nope
Its almost like there is market disbelief out there after the market leaders for the past few years have taken major hits, but the market has stayed resilient.
Huge recovery by XON – last looked it was below $25 – considered some May 30 calls, but decided against it…now back above $27
FB….BOOM
let the rotation begin
Three for four so far on yesterday’s top option ideas:
FB May 115 Calls $2.47
FCX May 12.5 Calls .42
PYPL May 42 Calls .70
TSLA May 275 Calls $5.90
Props!!!
I put in my order for FB last night to execute at market at the open. I got it for 107.94 then sweated all day.
I don’t recommend this strategy.
Wondering if $FB would have gapped down over earnings, would you still have left this comment?
ROTFL
I have been talking up FB on your blog since $90 with buy reccos below 100. Look it up. Dozens of posts.
The funny thing is we have been agreeing 100% on entry points into the market and bull runs vs bear runs, you can look that up also.
I know. I won’t let you show up for the win without a heckle.
Cost basis now at 97.
So, you don’t sell/take any profit FB ? keep 100% invested?
Because I am going to take some off. Thanks.
I took 600 off two weeks ago at 108.12.
I re-entered based on his speech last week, it was impressive.
Selling now is not a bad idea but there is more upside, AAPL investors may see FB as a better instrument.
52 week 72.00 – 117.59
P/E 84.42
Div/yield –
EPS 1.29
Shares 2.29B
Beta 0.73
Inst. own 70%
Q4 (Dec ’15)………. 2015
Net profit margin 26.72% 20.57%
Operating margin 43.83% 34.72%
EBITD margin – 45.60%
Return on average assets 13.06% 8.25%
Return on average equity 14.56% 9.14%
Bot $GOOGL calls for a $FB play, not posting only cuz they beat though, Check the time stamp in #12631
Notice how they ripped QQQ back above last week’s low of 108.02…Odd, no? Classic washout / fuckery.
Congrats to today’s buyers and sweet dreams to the bears who shorted in the hole today.
120 tonight on FB?
Yeh I stuck my hand into the blender w AAPL calls on the open but wondering a safer play would’ve been just to go long QQQ. That said, AAPL has had a very good history of reversion after these big down gaps.
My FB gain helps FSLR loss. Still FSLR giving not bad guidance. Both long term hold, so keep holding.
How are you losing in FSLR?
OA. Can you elaborate on some opportunities you see unfolding should the U.S. dollar continue to unwind – further push into cyclicals? I love reading your posts and comments and I think they are deliberately written to be a bit cryptic to make us do our own homework.
I live in Canada and there are some great opportunities taking place in cyclicals and for currency (it’s not all Valeant and BreX and Nortel etc. etc. here). So far this year the TSX is up over 7% plus another 15% or so if you translated it back into U.S. dollars.
I think those plays were a layup thus far, but the trend in the dollar will suggest whether that trend continues. I came up with another list in AHWOA today of names I like for quick trades if that’s the case.
Thanks MSGT Hartman for disclosing ! I intend to sell 1/4 holdings and hold lest.
Gold trying to break out. Bought more AUY in PM
TWTR – buy any break below yesterdays lows…could trade down to 14.60 befroe reversing higher.
Bought FSLR yesterday afternoon without checking earnings date for some reason.. ouch.
Bot TWTR weekly 15 calls .11