I can’t help myself, I am hitting epic winship this year, and been doing the Bernie around my office all morning.
When I start getting giddy, run for your life.
Bought $RLYP calls this am…watching $P, $QUNR.
OA
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Hat tip sir. Picked up calls in $RLYP, $VIPS, $VMW recently. All working nicely.
Only downside with RLYP is that Wedbush recommended it a couple days ago. They are so consistently wrong on everything it’s scary.
Everything is just a tad too expensive for me out there – I’m watching PACB and LIFE and looking for other pullbacks
Funny timing, as i was thinking about this last night … Have you ever gone back and analyzed how long a hot streak typically holds? I think the least comfortable move can continue to be up for a quite a while based on what you see out there, but I’m sure these typically do operate over a general interval and evolution.
Bot UWTI at 27.72. Effectively making me neutral ahead of the inventory reports. Never got a decent short from Friday’s high in oil.
While we haven’t taken out that high, I’m going with my gut that a run to 45 is being setup.
Lots of ways to win in this market — congrats. Your post yesterday got me thinking which encouraged me to play to win this morning rather than play to trade another day.
Top ideas: BAC CSCO NKE PYPL SSYS TSLA
Do you still like VIPS. Maybe short squeeze to 18 or so?
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=GLUU,CRIS,EZPW,KCAP,STV,MOBI,CNIT,ABIO,VRNG,CDTI
I sorta like that GLUU
OA = Winner of iBC video of the year!
When I start getting giddy, run for your life.
lol
CYTK looking beautiful.
DAX and FTSE green … the Easter Bunny Rally is on!
Good spot to buy TBT or short TLT
Agreed….
Feels like we just hit the top. Some fast reversals in the last 15 mins
yes I’m sensing a change in tone
TWTR yolos @17.00
Bought my April SPY puts, still holding CTRP and GLNG.
Jeff – are u still in PACB?
Sold it at $13 last year, purchased at $2.
You mentioned it a few times the past couple of weeks. Just curious what the re-entry point.
I was thinking $7.6-7.7
Still remarkably similar to the big October run. It lasted 26 trading days and gained roughly 244 points before pulling back 94 points to the nearest support. Friday was 26 trading days from the bottom and roughly 242 points. Hears hoping for the same 94 point pullback as last time.
OA did you ever buy CTRP? If so, what’s your target? I bought April’s but the possible move looks much bigger maybe after a small pullback first.
Yes, right after that plunge post earnings @40.
The floor boards are giving way on the rotting TLT ark….another morning trap for the bears and another buying opportunity for the bulls
This morning I bot MOAR TNA at 55.54.
Looking to sell partial HFC from 35.00 in case the TSRO rumours are just that ….
Melt up coming in the financials if my “Demise of TLT” thesis is correct. Position accordingly….
Accidential research trip this weekend. We were traveling and I finally got to try $NDLS.
We really liked it. My wife got italian, i got asian, and my son got mac & cheese, all under one roof, all quite good, for under $30 (including cookies). And I was in & out with takeout in about 15 mins. It exceeded my expectations by quite a bit. And it’s trading at a ridiculously attractive P/S compared to it’s peers, even as it’s showing good sales growth. Nov options look really cheap here. I think I will start some shares or longer dated options in $NDLS as soon as I sell something, as the spot looks okay to me right now.
I’m skeptical of any concept that goes from doing well with the core product of only noodles and decides to add: salads, soups, sandwiches, potstickers, flatbreads. I would bet they don’t survive.
Any restaurant that serves beef strokinoff is a must short.
LOL. I missed the strog’ when I was reviewing the menu. That’s hilarious. I hereby retract my interest in the name.
I didn’t want to google the spelling.
AMBA finally getting some legs
Unrelenting bid in NKE — earnings tonight. Expecting a blowout number.
puts are actually kinda cheap (for earnings). $62’s for 70 cents.
Stock will trade 70+ tomorrow
Ill take the other side of that trade. For no reason but gut feeling. Not much innovation coming from them and the quality has been going downhill
self-tying shoes
Hopefully you picked up those puts Matt
Good call guys…I did not post but I sold my calls @ .26 @ 3:02. Stock felt heavy and I had my son’s first baseball game to attend. My win ratio is low on earnings plays so I took the scratch. Might revisit tomorrow but expecting volume to become muted as the long weekend approaches.
They’re a global giant with constant pressures on labor costs (there’s not much more to go lower than paying out slave wages in 3rd world countries), they make a lot of money, but pay no dividend. Wish i was only back in 1996. But not so much in 2016.
Indeed. OA has taught us about cheap options into earnings. Had to.
PYPL APR 45 Calls are attractive for .25
GS interests me here
LNKD is not moving at all while other bottom dwellers are spiking. No stock overhang tamping it down. OA.. any thoughts on this?
I went 0-2. New rule for this year…when I do this, I avoid the strike-out and don’t try a third time.
Closed out this week’s $XBI calls for a 50% win. I was early with my buy. Rededicating a portion into April $PACB’s if I can get my bid hit.
TLT green to red….bad omen for the bears. Next target low 127s.
Took TLT puts this AM. Good spot to manage.
http://ibankcoin.com/Hattery/bond/
Btw, nice calls lately. (E.G. BAC&CSCO yolos). Thanks for sharing your ideas.
Good stuff Hattery…I am expecting a gap lower tomorrow and a test of last week’s low of 127.21. Should TLT break thru those lows, its possible we cascade lower to test 2/1 low of 126.29. A break of 2/1 low is the ultimate confirmation of trend reversal but last week’s lows should be reason enough. Ideally both levels are broken in the same day and mutiny erupts on the Ark…stay tuned!
Wow , looks like sune to file bk soon
Just did some chart surfing.
Interesting spots on $DANG and $FCAU. Considering a YOLO on one or the other.
$UVE caught my eye.
And OA, did you ever do anything about $CAFD? That’s back to the lower end of it’s range.
What’s up with GS? Anyone reading into its relative underperformance for the past 2 months?
No investment banking income or IPOs. Boohoo for GS. Focus on money center banks that could divest various divisions. There was some notable FAS call buying this afternoon.
“The floor boards are giving way on the rotting TLT ark….another morning trap for the bears and another buying opportunity for the bulls”
“TLT green to red….bad omen for the bears. Next target low 127s”
“Took TLT puts this AM. Good spot to manage”
hmmmmmm
Looking at P coiling like OA said… What would make one pick 10.50 or 11 calls ? Always have issues picking the proper strike price
API inv shows 8 mil build w/ gasoline at 3 mil draw.
More API details :
Gasoline -4302K vs -1900K expected
Distillates -391K vs -750K exp
Cushing -1370K
Nice drawdown in Cushing. For once it does not build along w/ overall inventories. Looks like the beginning of summer gas production.
Jeff – any concern about Utilities making all time highs in this rally?
No. They did the same thing in early 2013 before the positioning back into equities. HUGE run from Nov 2012 into April 2013. Timing here seems about right.
BOT NKE APR 67 @ .14 and .19
added a few more @ .17
Wanted: Motivated Buyer.
Market has turned
Fuck the Ark…talk to an accountant or industry trade group and get some real data. What’s happening in my world of commercial equipment financing will not hit bottom lines until Q2 and Q3. Further, there was a significant number of businesses that held back sales at end of 2015 so they could recognize sales in 2016 and take advantage of Section 179 Deduction. Couple that with an early Spring with no snow related disruptions as in years past and you have recipe for blowout Q1 earnings and improved forecasts for balance of 2016.
Week in my world of corporate banking, every institution is predicting 2016 to be one of the toughest years since 08. As a result, a ton of layoffs in the banking industry has begun.
They’re just cutting dead wood…last few years have been tough for equipment financing business because legislation was not enacted until late in the year (for the entire calendar year) so business had no time to plan spending to offset with accelerated deduction. They finally extended deduction thru 2019 in the most recent legislation that was passed in Dec 2015.
P and YELP look manageable here any thoughts?
Is that another bull trap / reversal in TLT??? A test of yesterday’s lows is next……
Good spot to buy TSLA calls for next week’s Model 3 Launch
Long tna 53.8
With ya from 53.55
I’m usually early sorry
Oil:
Imports up: hedge funds were delivering Caribbean stored oil for profit taking. MHE
Cushing: down over a mill. Summer gas processing. It’s what bulls wanna see
Production Lwr 48 & Alaska: down.
Gasoline: down. Room to make moar.
As such I bot MOAR UWTI for a run to 45. Slightly long oil.
That’s MHO, my humble opinion. Goddamn phone.
Pretty dang bloody…. stocks taking it right on the kisser. Not sure if I’m feeling buying the dip. At least not yet
Bloody? Not really. Perfect time to look for relative strength stocks.
Most everything I’m watching is down 1-9%. CMG is up, lol.
I’m watching RLYP and DK
Depends on perspective. 93% on the day is very bloody.
But of stocks making 1% moves, ~27% of down stocks are down at least 4% compared to ~22% of up stocks up at least 4%. So while it’s a correlated sell, it isn’t one where bulls lack conviction and bears are piling on anything that’s up.
Also, in the context of the week, things are still holding up.
Per your request, you are hereby notified that $VALE is under $4. I figured it would take more than 12 hours to trigger that notification!
In stocks over 100k avg daily volume
145 stocks up 1%+
1988 stocks down 1%+
32 stocks up 4%+
500+ stocks down 4%+
Weekly:
2685 up on the week
702 stocks down on the week
376 up 10%+ on the week
77 down 10% on the week
idk why I didn’t put the exact number on stocks down 4%. Just rechecked it’s 541 now.
Which ones mainly? Energy related? Most of my board is down marginally. I know people are looking for these types of divergences so thanks for posting.
Energy and materials getting ramshackled. Also lot’s of biotech being fucked with. My sense is we got a leg down coming here fellas
Kidstock- continuing the bank layoff conversation, it’s not just the dead wood this year. I know cuz I was forced to do some and told it’s too great for a shower and tougher economy to grow revenue. The same for my regional counterparts at hsbc and bofa. Not saying we’re going to crash like 08, but the finance world is definitely not signaling good times