Feeling pretty good about this look heading into next week. All conditions in oil, credit, banks, carry trade, etc are looking better here ahead of the weekend.
Here’s another look at last years bottoming process.
And a look at the last two months on the hourly.
After getting shook from the NKD last night at breakeven, I bought the NQ this morning as well as some $NFLX and $GOOGL calls that expire today…just for some day trades. As a reminder to my beloved After Hours with Option Addict patrons, I am leaving here in a few hours for the weekend.
Have a great long extended vacation away from this stuff, and email me with anything you need.
Also, a quick public service announcement, but next weeks Investor Boot Camp with Jeff and Jeff is locked and loaded.
We’ve got some great things planned for you next week, so be sure not to miss it.
OA
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OA,
Thoughts on biotech bouncing with a market rebound?
The weekly chart suggests this is the spot to bounce.
TY for your cont’d actionable ideas.
Sold the remainder of my TZA. It was a hedge against my now 2% long TNA. Will manage into the spring with call sales and occasional put buys.
I dont think I’ll ever understand why you “hedge” by buying TZA instead of selling and buying back or flipping
I used to try to time my purchase of both TNA & TZA. I usually sucked at it.
By scaling in & out of both, I gotten better returns for myself.
Thus I often will carry both as I am scaling in/out.
And it only works for me during elevated volatility.
I took the nice win in $LABU from the ETF purchase at the end of the day yesterday. Purchased at $5.30 and sold at $5.62. I’m elated.
Bot back SCO at 184.97 that I sold this morning at 207.58. It is now a hedge.
Oil hit my target today so I’m being prudent. It needed the rig count to hit it so I suspect it’ll chill into the weekend.
I am a 1/2 position long oil.
Algos are analyzing where the stops lie and in what numbers.
A move in oil to OA’S 31.50 line w/TBT going to 40 is within the realm of reason.
Would only bet w/throw away money.
Sold SPY/ XIV. Looks promising but some things on my checklist aren’t being met.
What does the quietness on such an up day mean?
I don’t know that traffic in here can be a reliable sentiment gauge given the recent changes to IBC. OA’s posts used to always be on the front page. They’re now buried by a shitload of Fly’s posts given the recent move by IBC to a “churn out content” model.
replace your ibankcoin bookmark with this
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/
like I did. Fewer Fly droppings to wade through = better mental health!!!
feye and cybr. any of these look like a good buy here?
Cobra Kai !!!
I didn’t know until late last year that Django’s outfit was based directly on Little Joe’s: http://www.bgowear.com.br/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/8113-little-joe-cartwright-bonanza-409×600.jpg
It’s not sexy but I believe the next rotation is into consumer staples so I picked up $KO $PEP $PM for longer term holds. In the short term I like the Oil sector so I went with $SLB and $HES.
Chief
I think $PM will clear all time highs soon. what is your take?
Brave. The next rotation is out of everything. Staples first with Utes a close second. 20x toothpaste and sugar? Could be wrong. As soon as crude rolls over again. Staples floorboard. Only thing left to dive.
Baba,
It’s basically been in a range for 4 years so it’s coiled up to say the least. I think it moves up out of the range and this is a good environment for it to happen. If it does it should be a very solid move. Same think applies to $KO
I’ve been thinking about this all morning and I think you’re on to something here Chief.
What do you get with a bunch of new $15/hr jobs and lower gas prices? You get people buying better smokes, coffee, soup, soda, cereal, etc., right? People don’t feel wealthy but they have a little extra $ for supermarket kinda thing.
The relative low risk of staples plus potential better performance from those companies could prove attractive for investors in this environment.
XLP barely down YTD and near all time highs.
Related Question: Do utilities usually outperform during market downturns?
Going with the “my personal experience equals the universal truth,” out in the real world I don’t see any signs of a slowdown or recession. People clogging the highways and restaurants and movie theaters. Nobody’s depriving themselves of their beer and cigarettes.
People sometimes forget that the stock market is not the economy. Most people out there don’t even notice that 2009 is over. Hell I didn’t even notice the crash and I had a 401(k). Now that I manage my own investments I’ve gone down the rabbit hole.
Chief
My thoughts as well. I am guessing it will go on a rampage , once it clears 91 92 level. The other tobacco stock $RAI is appealing as well
Wed, 2:30 pm is the last time to trade the March /CL option contract.
I am 1/2 position long oil. Short leash. Expecting the March contract to touch the 50D. Then head south again t prepare for its monthly ramp into the first of the month.
Added to a UGAZ long at the equivalent of /NG 1.99 last week. Been accumulating below the 50% retracement of the recent squeeze in /NG of 2.09 and a seller above.
Damn, OA, you got shook out of your NKD. That was a great spot, had a rally then it gave it all back at the end of the day (Japan day). Only to grind higher during Europe, U.S. hours, and their next session.
Weekend OEW Update:
“With a potential Major wave A low now in place, a potential Major wave B uptrend can now be anticipated. Normally uptrends during bear markets last from two to four weeks, and retrace from 50% to 61.8% of the preceding downtrend. This would project a rally to between SPX 1963 and SPX 1999 within the next month. Since Int. iv topped at SPX 1947, and Int. i bottomed at SPX 1993 this would create another potential range. Within both of these ranges there are the 1956 and 1973 pivots. With this market having a fondness for the pivots we should start looking for an uptrend high once the 1956 pivot range has been reached.”
Am I the only one upset about holding any long position over the weekend? Futures are raging. I’m going to miss a huge gap up for Tuesday morning.
Not holding any long positions I meant
That’s what the market wanted. Brutal
After the intra-day double bottom/leg sweep on 2/11, we have only ourselves. Probabilities say that was a bottom for the short term at least, I was a pussy on Friday.
Does anyone trade any inverse ETFs besides the crude/nat/gold ones? I usually use $TZA as a hedge but wasn’t sure if folks liked anything else. Trying to make sure my quiver is stocked if there’s anything behind this mini-rally.
$SPXU for the S&P 500 short 3X
$SPXL for the S&P 500 long 3X
I am an active TZA user to hedge my 2% long TNA. I buy TZA below 60 and have been able to successfully sell it above 70. That has lowered my cost basis for TNA.
Disappointing for now that /CL hit 31.50 in the pre market overnight. My late Friday purchase of SCO was made because of this possibility.