In response to the confidence in my feed recently that the market would be plunging lower today in crisis form, how do you feel about this response? Just holiday noise? Real crisis surfaces tomorrow? Real traders don’t sell out of respect for Columbus?
I’m emboldened by the 4 point range in the S&P today. She’s quiet as a lamb.
Since speed was the #1 signal we were looking at this week, it’s official; we’re off to a slow start. If this market were seller controlled, then they’d be selling this, no?
Rather than read too much into today, let’s continue to apply the same analysis over the course of the week.
I did way too much over here for such a quiet day. If things are quiet again tomorrow, try and remember that less is more. I’m going to try and focus on that this week and work on managing what I have already.
OA
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Today doesn’t count OA. Tomorrow doesn’t either. it’s all about Wednesday.
What’s Wednesday?
JPM AMC Tuesday
WFC and BAC Wednesday BMO
Fed Beige Book Wednesday afternoon.
Not sure how much these things matter, but it’s what I am expecting to turn the market lower at least through Friday.
Today’s puny volume across the board makes it difficult to predict anything. At least that’s what I’m telling myself after missing an entry point or two.
a wise person once told me to “Never sell a dull market”.
Bond market closed. Markets had a chance to levitate with the idled bond trading monies. Couldn’t muster a rally. Oil was clobbered. Positioning for a leg sweep kick in the morning then turning on the “turnaround tuesday commodity” algos. Looking to enter oil at USO 14.75. Shorting long bond via TBT around 42.75 – 43.00. If these prices look like they will be breached at the open, I will pull my orders.
The strongest TICK came from that opening move lower.
Agreed on the TICK. However, my “spider sense” tells me that we will once again test the 38% ish fib level of 46.30. That would scare the beejesus out of the oil bulls and setup up a favorable r/r for me. In that circumstance, you will also be rewarded for your entry as I would expect to oil to be trading around 50 by the time the inventory numbers are released on Thursday.
Thank you for engaging with me.
Any time.
How would you think folks would react to a gap up tomorrow?
Depending on the gap, it could put us back over the super long term trendline in oil going back to your “favorite” year of 1998! Thus a gap over around $49.50 would negate my position above. I believe it is unlikely as E.I.A. inventories are not released till Thursday. A.P.I. not released until Wednesday.
To definitively answer your question, momentum traders should take the oil ball and run if we open above 49.50ish and close above the 200 day moving average for the front month contract which was rejected on its first test in a long time on Friday, 10/9
$46.30 will also likely be very close to the 20 day moving average for the front month contract for oil.
Been selling index calls and buying calls on individual names.
Hey OA – any thoughts on $HACK vs. any individual names like FEYE, CYBR, RPD, etc.?
I always prefer to pick stocks.
$TSLA can’t catch a bid.
You in it?
yes 🙁
Stock? Calls?
stock and leap call
No stop on the stock?
I’m green. Nothing to worry about here unless you are a daytraderz…
And Oil teaches the neophytes yet another lesson.
Yeah, but you are green sitting in mutual funds. Start calling some shots while you take the high road, eh?
+1
no stop, RSI =17 but stocktwits is still bullish on this one. What stop do you suggest?
Don’t you have to base that on capital invested?
originally set at 215, my mistake to set too low.
Your bigger picture analysis has been spot on lately, great job and thanks. On the frivolous side, what do you have in your mouth in your pic, a Virginia Slim?
They call that a “bleezy.”
I’m clearly behind the times. Good luck when the kush hits.
No shares to short at Scottrade for X, bought 10 Nov 20, 11 puts.
PPC 65% short interest.
i agree in that today would have been kind of a selling day if this was a near term top
but please do not castrate me again , bro
my testicles still hurt
I feel bad for your broker brother. He could have made some coin.
i’m a bit busy at moment but will come payin visit to your ah, for my interest . promise
SKEW index hits an all time high today. Traders pricing in black swan event apparently.
Higher than it was in 1998?
Higher than it’s ever been, even during the financial crisis. According to sentiment trader, there’s a 15% chance of a “black swan” event. Not very high, but the last time it was this high was Sep 18th, and we dropped 9%.
This is not a contrarian indicator.
Actually, it is. It was higher in 98 than it was in all of the financial crisis.
I should have put that in quotes. That’s according to sentiment trader. I never even used the SKEW index before I joined that service.
Seems like sentiment here is once again bearish. I’m sure OA is loving it. Let’s gap the f up tomorrow
Hey guys.
The market will be down until the full moon.
Be careful out there, investors feeling nervous due to lunar changes.
LOL. Most investors I’ve chatted with lately did mention the moon as a possible headwind or catalyst to the next leg lower.
You charge for that shit? Really?
stupid delayed settlement kept me out of TWTR yesterday – only trade I wanted to make. Looks like I get to watch it fly, fly away – I need a shotgun
Nice fuckery in the oil markets overnight. I believe the o/n low of 46.70ish will be tested today. Looking to go long around USO 14.75ish. Algos, do you dare troll this site and stop me!
Ps: short term mean recession trade only.
O/n oil low retested at 9:20am. TBT responding with oil. Recently this has bode week for oil. I may not get my USO 14.75…….