I said at the open “This is it.” It sure is starting to feel that way.
The more I think about this whole thing, the more I’m convinced that the only thing both sides of the trade are watching for here is the lows. All analogues call for a break of the lows, right? Except for the 2015 analogue?
The ultimate pain trade here is that while everyone watches the lows with bated breath, the market has already bottomed.
As discussed mid-day, everything was divergent again. Breadth, Market Darlings, Biotech, GS, Yen, EEM, FXI, you name it. Twice now we’ve seen this into weakness. I said last week that “divergence” would be the theme for this week. It’s been a source of comfort in initiating risk here, into weakness.
There are two checklist items that I need in order to say that this is all over. We need to see USD/JPY breakout, and I need to see the initiative buyer emerge. After that, I hope we can stop watching this market for a long, long time.
Happy NFP tomorrow.
OA
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what indicator do you use to gauge initiative buyer?
I don’t think people believe you
Which part? All of it?
That we are undergoing a shift in market sentiment. I didn’t until this afternoon.
love this fact, if true.
Confirmation today.
But AAPL WMT CAT TWTR SLB HES can’t catch a bid.
Regime change. Always happens in these moves.
Your new leaders are: CRM, VMW, FEYE, DATA, etc
Wow. Thanks. Was wondering what they were now.
add CYBR to that list???
I would not add cyber yet. Market still trying to work out valuations and the market hasn’t come to terms with pricing for services yet. Need a little more time.
If you like VMW then you must like RHT even more.
I like RHT.
AAPL is the new MSFT
youdaman OA would be lost without you
is there more chopping tomorrow or go up big tomorrow? Any projection?
Why?
OA – I appreciate how objective you were through this week.
I’ve tried to call both bull and bear opportunity for the last month. Hope it worked for both sides.
thanks.
Hmmm…good avatar that pic would be for you
OA – you have great instincts man and even better at not letting cognitive bias take hold. I was in the camp of the final flush had to occur (and was short) and pulled then off yesterday as I was seeing way too many indexes showing strong positive divergence on the daily charts. I was getting anxious and finally came to my senses and let go of the position. Appreciate you thinking out all the angles.
Thank you.
Been utilizing the ‘pain trade’ concept also to test any position I might have to make sure I am being sufficiently objective…
That always helps in volatile environments. It works so well if you can be absolutely objective about the days action, and how it might have screwed people.
Started buying today so I’m like 25% invested. It’s hard not to like some of these prices and I love the confidence you exude OA. .
Would this go along with the devil having SPLK as a top pick?
SPLK was one of 4 I started back on Grey Monday.
I got out of my shorts at the end of the day. Man do I hope you’re right.
wow – the market, she is moody now
Appreciate your level headed wisdom through the turbulence, Jeff . I have been following your posts carefully (unlike some others) and am amazed at how well you have called this step-by-step. Appreciate how you don’t rely on bluster or ego to push your thesis, but charts and trends. Keep up the stellar work!
Check out the ten year 🙂
Here we go for the flush. Not sure if it’s the last though.
USD/JPY not good..
I believe this may be the come to jesus moment. Aka man behind the curtain stick save.