In the last few weeks, the periods of collective silence and lack of conviction between parties have been outstanding turning points for the market.
For instance, after you watched stocks give back a 4% gap up on Tuesday, you came in on Wednesday SILENT about the rally into the close call.
After Wednesday, the bulls loitered in the streets talking about how high this thing would go. Gap down on Monday? SILENCE.
Bears were out on my front lawn yesterday after a Dow 500 loss, throwing garbage at my house, telling me how far this thing would drop.
Gap up today? SILENCE.
I think we rally through tomorrow, but that’s just me. I’m only trying to help you wade through the volatility for the next few weeks, and I’ve been pretty fucking spot on.
OA
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the old silent indicator .. clever!
They are defending last nights breakout in ES at 1916, trying a long here.
Not through the whole thing but enjoyed last night’s AH w/OA. Picked up a couple cheap Sept 11 TNA calls just to have in case we rip up to denial.
Hey, thanks.
I am sure that you are a witch…..
Ha ha! wOArlock…..
If you guys want a real life example of that sentiment chart, look no further than the 1990 chart (hope this link works):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&st=1990-01-01&en=1991-06-03&id=p10221049037
Nice!
2011 was perfect too.
Yeah it sure was. What a great guidepost.
After this rally I think odds still do favor lower prices. Fly brings up a good point: Where the hell is Yellen? They call off a rate hike and we should see a nice move to 1990/2000 again, at least.
Thank you. Very Nice.
What does 1990 have to do with 2015? Most of the companies popularly traded here didn’t even exist then. How many hedge funds now vs then fucking with the market?
It’s about market psychology.
I’m with you. Levered long into tomorrow’s close.
I got the “manipulated markets” and “gold is the best option” talk from my brother in law last night. He repeatedly cited jim Rickards
Ah, the ole brother in-law talk.
Jersey,
What is your brother in law’s background if you don’t mind my asking? Education? General work experience? Weird question I know, but I’m always curious about the demographics behind certain plays. FWIW, I have a PM miners position……curious to know the type of people I’m in the boat with. Thanks for any color.
He’s a project manager for a large company, well educated. He’s always bearish, never trusts stocks and is always positioning for crashes and the apocalypse. Smart guy but when it comes to investing it’s crazy talk, ignorant of the 150% upward moves in between crashes. Never says it’s not a good time to buy gold. I love him like a brother tho.
Your brother in law can be an indicator just like jeff’s – and, actually, my hubby is a reasonably good indicator too.
I am a great day trading indicator. Seriously, I should start a site called “Opposite Trading” so traders can track my trades during the day and do the exact opposite. OR, I could contact my broker to see if they can program my buy sell buttons to execute the exact opposite of the button labels. I’d be fucking rich !!
ROTFL
Thanks Jersey. Good info.
I liked the setup better this morning when Crude was $46…anything can happen from here given the volatility in that contract. perhaps the PPT has figured out they can prop the market by simply buying crude futures
if we can recover 4200 on NQ we will get more buying interest & short covering
Look at Sept 2nd portion of this chart. Looks like we are at denial point to me.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=1&yr=0&mn=0&dy=2&id=p20444294292
Ah, my bad. I have account there and intraday not avail to public, please ignore.
OA,
I think your post from yesterday still applies today. About says it all.
“Option AddictSeptember 1, 2015 at 3:57 pm
Then I don’t think the pain trade is down. Are people actively buying this? If anything, late conviction buyers are getting fucked today. The guys that didn’t start til Thursday or Friday. They all stopped out today, and bears aren’t covering here.
I think up. I’m going to be up trying to buy everything tonight.”
very interesting spot for the indices on the smaller time frame. You’ve the NQ that looks looks decent but the SPY and DOW both look like bear flags. I’m leaning towards down for the afternoon.
If VIX were a stock it’s breakout has returned towards “balance” at around 27.5 and it’s retesting.
so far it looks like a failed retest.
All-in.
Today’s buys:
DDD Sept 15 calls
MPEL Sept 18 calls
WTW Oct 7 Calls
MDBX 10.01
Nice, back to flat for me. Killed ES today.
You had the right bias.
you both had the right bias — just took longer to recover than many expected
this was the first selloff that I closely followed oil and index futures and I must admit, it has made a considerable impact on my ability to see the laces. thank you jeff and everyone else
The timing of today’s reversal was almost identical to last Wednesday. 15 minutes apart in timing. Odd, no?
Tomorrow is the “obvious” grind higher into the holiday close.
Crude ripped $3 in the course of three hours….confidence inspiring move.
Closed ES for a 5 pt loss. I’ll admit it, poor trade. I’m done for the week. See you guys after the holiday!
Intraday action has really thrown me for a loop. Have been looking for continuation up but have only seen a number of fake-outs. Yen has seemed supportive at times but also has faked me out.
(But got long toward the close yesterday and unloaded around 1932 on the ES, so have done OK. Just have been burned thinking on a few occasions that the Yen was breaking down and that we were going to get that move up that I see as a good possibility.
I want to see one last plunge into the abyss to really screw traders over.
Power reversal in crude followed up by late afternoon rally is the ideal fuckery to end today’s chopfest.
Guys that went home flat or heaven forbid short have a lot to think about on the way home tonight…China’s markets are closed for the next two days so there is a good chance for continuation thru Friday.
Got a feeling The Fly will be posting a pic of Clubber Lang in the next few days.
Bought FXI Sept 38’s
Never give up !!
No link today to sign in AHWOA?
Links and passwords are always on the site.
$NYSI — going back to 2010 has only reached these extremes on two other occasions. Couple that with extreme TRIN yesterday and the anecdotal evidence is leaning in the favor of the bulls. I am going to sleep well tonight for the first time in several weeks.
I am building a short position in ES. Not only did I avoid disaster by going flat yesterday, but I was able to capture a lot of upside. I’m ok being early here.
What did you see that made you think short right here?
Resistance on ES between 1950-59. VIX, while down a lot, still held 24.50. The main factor is how we closed August. Until we recapture the uptrend on a monthly chart I’m assuming short.
Haha, futures literally spiked right when I clicked “submit comment”.
Use the volume profile. The thinnest part of the range travels all the way back to 1970, FYI
Yeah, volume profile shows around 67-70.
Being early makes it so much more difficult to hold the position with conviction when the heat is really on.
Dips are to be bought — should be some steep drops along the way. Good luck.
Jeff – thoughts on FIT here?
I was diggin that $MB today. $FIT not bad.
$AZO – wow, just wow
AZO
Anyone playing nat gas? I grabbed some ugaz into the close today at 1.6. Looking to add on weakness tmrw if the reaction to report is negative. Thinking of a month to two month hold
Crude futures on the move again…buy em up boys!
Have fun with it. Will put you in psycho ward.
EXXI is gonna rip to $4 on the back of higher Crude. Long Sept $2 calls
Just bought $SN
Lots of beaten up small cap energy names to choose from. DDD is getting going this AM. Thoughts on MPEL & WYNN?
Dude, the 3D stocks give me wood.
Point of control for last 5 days of trading on $ES_F is 1978.50
$ES_F trend day so far
OA – what do you think of crude right here. You think has some legs to keep going?
I think range, just like it did in Jan after its massive 3 day run.
Thanks. Thinking about closing my uwti position.
Sold FXI calls — put Save Tom Brady Trade back on with next weeks DIS 95 Puts
If 1962.25 on $ES_F holds, retest of today’s highs still in play, otherwise…
Closed out my $IWM weekly for just under a double. Would’ve been a 3 bagger if I didn’t get a twitchy trigger finger and buy early. If I can get back to a computer near the close may flip to puts.
Nice work.
Thanks. Just got a look at the markets since my post and am feeling great!
Tried to get what I could out of my IWM Sept calls today. I think I’m going to just wait for the market to become less correlated and for the chop to end. I was up good through half of May and have lost since then. for June July and August, I should have sat out.
Lots of people lost money during that time including yours truly. I like your plan of using patience. Persevere.
I just bagged a 90% trade in SPY calls and I give all credit to Option Addict. I’ve learned so much from this guy that it’s scary to ponder his understanding of the markets. I couldn’t stress enough what an unbelievable value AHWOA is not only for making money, but from learning about how to view the market.
Thank you Le Fly for bringing him on board !!!
Couldn’t agree more. I’ve learned more from OA than anyone.
+100. I have executed 4 trades since volatility showed up, all very profitable, none in the red. Without his guidance I would have executed 10 trades, with maybe 1 profitable.
Took off my UGAZ trade, probably too early. Just trading at this point. I have PGH on just in case.
Not a very promising looking day in general for risk given IBB / XBI / AAPL / GOOGL are down.
I bought into SDS at 22.35 today. I’m taking the approach that every single day is opposite day. Do the opposite of what the crowd is doing. Its helped me make a few % the past 2 weeks despite not taking much risk at all.