I was hoping last nights weakness in the futures would have carried over into the open today. Just about any stock out there would look amazing given a 2% pull back or so. I’m not sure how much downside we’ll see in the overall market, so I am trying to set alerts for lower prices on each of my favorite names, including BABA, P, TWTR, YELP, etc.
On the day, I like SKX, AMBA and PANW.
I’m on the road this week, and will return home on Thursday. Raul will be taking my place on After Hours with Option Addict. He’s going to be illustrating and simplifying the art of using market profile. Stop by and have a look.
OA
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OA- I ran some stats to see how oversold Small Caps are relative to Large. The long short of it is, large caps have only outperformed small caps by a greater margin 8% of the time going back to 1999, and the ratio is edging up toward small cap outperformance. I’m expecting some mean reversion here. Cheers.
So overweight small caps this year? I agree. This same relationship happened back in 2011-2012. The Rut was the only one left to take out its 2011 highs back at the end of 2012. Great time to get overweight is when it lags the broad market.
Yes, I overweighted small caps in my retirement account actually based on this. Ever since small caps were absolutely crushing large caps in 2010 they’ve been on a relative downturn as you know. I wrote about it here, I applied moving averages to the recent relationship, since 10/10/2014 it’s going the other way: http://vegavandal.tumblr.com/
Nah. This flies in the face of the 1998-99 analogue. SPY 15% in ’98, Russell red. Russell then outperformed in ’99 (barely), but ONLY because of small cap tech M&A activity. Small caps to underperform till we wrap this thing.
Show me where I said this is 1998-99. Small caps have historically underperformed later in the business cycle, but that doesn’t mean this isn’t a great risk-reward right here. Go ahead and fade it though and lose your shirt.
Such lame ass shiiit. Come correct with some fresh new trades goose. Always be like long Bidu or let’s get long before volume pocket or wow! speed of market is hectic. Same crap. Change up the game fool Or you best protect yo neck son.
time to get back into JNUG
I want to be just like you when I grow up.
HAHA. SO MANY PERMA BEARS ON GOLD. WOW, LOOK AT GOLD DOWN TODAY. CAN’T BELIEVE GOLD IS SO WEAK. GOLD BUYERS GETTING KILLED OUT THERE. WISH I WAS SHORT MORE GOLD.
Just trying to make the next week of comments all in one shot, similar to the way we did on the way up, lol.
WYNN popped on news, but it looks like a short squeeze up to its upper range – watching to see which direction it breaks, but leaning towards buying puts
OA – that PPT screener that I use as a personal Ouija board is pointing to BNFT. Do you think the devil’s just trying to play tricks on me?
Hmmm…easy to manage…but if the Ouija is speaking, I would listen.
Buccs – I have the PPT also.. Is this your personal screen or another one you follow? My screens I was using weren’t all that successful last year and was looking for some others.
Trent – sorry it took so long to see your reply. Within the PPT, go to User Screens, select my profile, and “Unc’s Favorite Screen”, then apply AHWOA principles to the charts in selecting a breakout candidate..
$GOLD is moving into its daily cycle low on day 23. On average the low is between day 24-28, so we should get a bounce out of that low soon. If we can get above 1347 out of this low, the market has changed from bear to bull.
It’s already Bull.
BABA looks exactly how GPRO looked at the end of Dec
failed to get above 105 thrice (extra Chess) times
want to buy puts.. but earnings
Re-Short GOGO update from this morning:
5,000 shares short @ 14.97…just before it tagged S1 on the BUTTON.
Plan to add on any move higher to the 50ema, ($15.55).
GOGO remains by bitch 🙂
http://scharts.co/15LCXR8
youve been short since the beginning of last week and the stock is up 5% alone today
I bet your wife/mom thinks you’re an idiot
Listen up pleb…I posted here FOR ALL TO SEE where to cover (S2) on the first short trade. Now run along and trade $500 positions. Chump.
Based on your antics here and your multiple personality disorder…I’d bet large that you are poor. Folks with money don’t behave that way.
Quick Honest Question: Why would one need to post under multiple aliases? I make losing trades everyday. I’ll give you my name and phone number if you want, I’m not all that important..
I changed my mind, I don’t want to be just like Bchu when I grow up, I want to be like you, JPMoreGain …wait, but you and Bchu are the same person.
Bet your wondering about that “grassy knoll” too… 🙂
So… did you cover yet?
BABA looks awesome wish it would come back in just a hair for a quick dip. Already in 106’s from last week but would add on weakness also. HAL and CLR calls doing alright also
Love the SCTY call here OA. I grabbed some feb 52s this morning targeting about $57 or so.
Did you grab any PCLN? I forget if you were the one saying you were going to jump back in it this week or if it was someone else.
Liked the way it was holding up so I grabbed some 1055’s @ 3.60 this morning.
I’m trying to be surgical with PCLN this time around. Stock has burned me too many times. I may miss out.
That was me looking to buy – I haven’t yet, but to be fair, I haven’t done anything in this market yet – still like the PCLN set-up though, but looking at others as well.
I’m calling the bottom in Oil right now. Someone had to do it and be wrong in a week.
Don’t get what you have against me position my plays on gold via jnug. I’ve been making money hand over fist on it since November. You started seeing a bullish trend in miners in like late December. Even my picks on when to sell have been spot on last 3 times. It’s not like I’m batting .500 on Mid Cap picks. I’ve been on Fire. Just cuz you require folks to pay a lot of money for real time picks don’t mean I should be silent when I’m Enjoying a red hot steak in my plays
Glad you are here to just trade ideas dude and not blow your own horn or diss the person whose blog it is. Stay strong Bruthuh!
Not just on fire, but on Fire. Let me stand next to your Fire, so I may be Warm.
dont mean to toot my own own horn but….oh whatevers, i love tooting. $JNUG!
HAL CLR beast mode activate…PAY ME
I’m a buyer of HAL/HES when the time is right, even knowing that their management team blows huge chunks of shit. There’s no denying explosive growth.
Serious question. What O&G co. has great management?
Hey guys if you haven’t subscribed to any of OA’s services you’re really missing out. I’m 10x the trader I was a year a ago and still trying to improve, thanks to Jeff’s guidance.
I am not a paid shill. Just felt like putting this out there after recently resubscribing to both services.
Looking forward to a great 2015 of trading with you guys.
TAN for an entry,,,for the long turn around
also new investments KSU CNCE CLDN time to make it big….spec play ECOM
OA, do you have a read on GOOGL into earnings. Frankly I think expectations are pretty low, especially as compared to some other stocks like AAPL where expectations are pretty high.
IV is pretty low for earnings. I really think it gaps up. However, I think you need to see it gap above $608 or so to get above all the volume it traded last year. This is ripe for two types of plays IMO, DOTM yolos and DITM calls or stock. To me if it gaps up inside the volume it’s previously traded at it will probably move fairly slowly. If we can get that gap above $608 it can move very quickly to new highs. I’m thinking of doing some FEB 500 calls as well as a smaller position in the weekly 580s. I think this could be an X style earnings event where we gap the range, but if not the DITM calls should still give a great return on a move up into the range.
BTW, I really would like to buy this thing at about $518.50-520, being a roughly 50% retracement of this most recent ramp up.
@quality, your GOOGL is at the 50 day. Let’s see if it holds…
Umm – the market decided to make a left at Albuquerque?
All the conditioned dip buyers wondering what they should buy here…Gotta love it! You folks will be able to get stuff real cheap today…massive gap down as earnings disappoint across the board. Yesterday’s bull trap snared more Bulls 🙂
GOGO’s purdy chart… The “live” trade in action. Any guesses as to where the second helping of shares sold short was yesterday? (Hint: blue line). Fully loaded 5k at $14.97 am yesterday and 10k at $15.42 as it made the run for the 50ema. Now it’s time to sit back and enjoy the show again. I may snack on some popped corn this morning! 🙂
This is what TA is all about. Boom.
http://scharts.co/18oHhXA
Hey…where did all the dip buyers go?! It’s so quiet here this morning? Party poopers…the lot of ya!
JP,
I’ve made more money on the short side than you could dream of. STFU
JCP on the move….get some!
Here’s your shot to buy many stocks. Ragnar to get his nuts crushed be day’s end. Russell will be first to go green.
Be careful, aggressive and fast selling.
JP, no one cares about your little fantasy trades. You are clearly an insane person. Speaking of, anyone watch that @thetathief dude on twitter have a complete meltdown? People are nuts. He was telling people he was a $50mil hedge fund manager and posting paper trades of 7 figures p&l’s. Turns out he was a 29 year old dude that was scamming people into $100 phone consultations. Ha. JP may be thetathief.
Good time to buy your favorite Biotech here.I like KERX CLDX JUNO BDSI HALO.
I had a nice straddle earning GS play on MSFT i wanted to share. Good confidence builder for me. Closed out the put side for 1278% big volume profile near 42. Closed AAPL puts also. Trying some LKND. Stalking Google.
if you’re bullish this isn’t the type of pullback you’re looking for.
Feels more like lack of bids than aggressive selling…with TLT up 1.33, of course they’re gonna sell stocks.
SPLK is a screaming buy right here. 200 DMA is about $54.29. Should see s bounce if it gets down there.
Bot TBT 39.68
Bought GOOGL and SPLK here. This is a great spot to manage them IMO
GOGO Update for all the “non-believers” out there…especially you, chieftain.
http://scharts.co/18oHhXA
Put that in your peace pie and smoke it. This trade was LIVE AND UP CLOSE for you to watch. Killing it again with GOGO. Boom 🙂
Hooray for you!
How was it live? You mentioned yesterday that you shorted 5k at $14.97. Where did this mysterious 10k add come from within .05 of the highs yesterday? Forgot to mention that one I guess.
Nothing mysterious about it. You clearly don’t know how to read the most simplest of charts. Can you say BACKTEST OF THE 50 EMA? That’s the area where one goes in LARGE after initiating a position. You people are too fucking funny.
That’s not the point. The point is if you are going to flex your muscles about your positions, at least post them when you take the position and not the next day. GOGO never got to the 50day ema. If you actually shorted 10k shares at the bell yesterday, you would have said something. Your hindsight trading is hilarious.
Indeed…I’ll be sure to make that a top priority next time I’m banking coin. Have to remember to let you know immediately next time…LMAO. Fool.
You’re an idiot. I feel sorry for you. A horrible trader and given your attitude, you most likely have no friends. That sucks man. I hope the GOGO short works out for you though, I’m sure you could use the money.
Come on DIP BUYERS….get busy buying the weakness!! You folks are a glutton for punishment so far this year. Funny how conditioned Joe Six Pack continues to be. Get ready for a waterfall, bitches.
You just bottom ticked us. Thanks douchebag.
Keep buying those dips, idiot! 🙂
You have attracted the opprobrium of EVERY reader of this blog, do you sleep well at night knowing that your priorities in life are egregiously doltish?
Bot UGAZ 3.59
Something is up in the whole convenience store / truck stop segment. I own $TA which is basically flat today. But look at $PTRY. They had an all cash buyout offer for $36.75. I just looked at the last trade which was $36.81. Additionally Gabelli took a 5% or 6% stake in the company AFTER the buyout. Seems to me the market is sniffing out another deal. This entire space is cheap in my opinion and a major beneficiary of low oil…fuel margins are rising but on top of them its been shown that people spend all of their oil savings on food at fast food joints, QSRs, and convenience stores. TA owns like 300 c-stores and 360 QSRs. Take a look at this chart on CNBC about where oil savings have been spent:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102351843#.
I like the thesis and stocks are moving in tandem…The Fly highlighted IMKTA, MUSA and CASY recently and was onto the group before PTRY offer. Congrats on FCAU…
There has been a ton of activity in the entire space…SUSS, PTRY, CAPL, LPG are all ones with activity over the past year. MLPs are hunting in the space too. It’s a really inexpensive segment of the market.
Were you the guy that shorted FCAU last time it was at $13.3? That was a nice trade. I’m holding for the Ferrari IPO
IWM coming back.If it can hold 118 I think damage will be contained.And I love dip buys. Why pay up?
CLDX starting to go.If it can break 25, target of 30 possible.
ZQK is on my radar. Particularly over 2.15ish.
Does anybody hold AAPL through er ?
Social media investors appear to be swapping out of FB & LNKD and rolling into TWTR. I no longer wish to be betting my house on SOCL index knowing FB & LNKD are 20%+ of holdings. Any bidders lol?
Nice bull flag RDWR. Sweatin out earnings tmro.
I wanted to #timestamp that I ________ 1,000,000 shares of Apple here. I will fill in the blank tomorrow morning whether I bought or shorted. (H/T the multiple personality guy)
I am long so many apple shares that I would wipe my ass with a 1000 of them then through them at youre goddamm stoopid ass face. I bet you would pick them off the ground and yo broke ass would try to cash em. Biatchhhhh
any thoughts on X?
Hell of a round trip.Low risk entry here i would think.
closing out all $JNUG shares. $$$
Sold UGAZ…keeping TBT
Keeping my $UCO. Barely back to even now. MAybe should just get out here unscathed but I’ll gamble a little here. Hopefully Crude can make a real run to $51
Maybe you should just get a job at Mickeedees. That way you’ll at least make coin instead of losing yo house.
Bot PCLN 1050 Calls into the close today – the AAPL results should help that cause tomorrow (unless this is the bizarro version of the market….crap)
Bought some IBM and SPY weekly calls and FEb calls in X and PBR at the close. Hope the AAPL beat lifts the Qs and my LNKD tomorrow.
edit damn go US Steel. Forgot they reported.
BEBE did go. Hope someone got in since I’m twiddling my thumbs waiting on a brokerage transfer.
Pausing here under 3.75 as expected…you might get one last shot in the 3.3’s.
Apologize for being mr. Show-up-for-the-win but I bought a handful of aapl 114 yolo’s at the bell. Was in a meeting all day but the chart set up looked like flag ready to go.
Dick.
Nice trade. You are 2 for 2 on earnings calls. Feeling Googl at all?
Google is my go to OPEX Friday afternoon gamble. Never really had success with earnings.
Amzn puts will be my next earnings play.
Oil about to crack, new lows coming.
Inventories matter – all the supply, no demand
out of apple for 145%….funny how it just doesn’t feel as exciting when your last trade was 1000%
But those 145% trades help keep your capital up for the next 1000% trade – ice job!
Market look to drift until 2:01 – I suppose I can stop watching the tape until then
I cheated – and this tape is looking ugly.
Sold MACK shares and rolled into JMEI
HD LOW TJX on the move early
Hold on folks…have I mentioned that GOGO is my bitch? :-). :-). 🙂
GOGOing down after a backtest kiss of the 50 ema Monday. Easy trade that I threw out for all to see. Instead of taking advantage of it, ya’ll acted like bitches too. Now you can watch from the sidelines as I once again BANK COIN. You dip buyers need a good washout in the markets….its a comin’!
You sir have some serious issues. Were you tormented as a child?
The more nervous he gets, the more he yaps. Prepare your short covering order. The clock is ticking…Tick tock
Ha, dave that is a really good point. The more he posts is usually a sign that his position (real or not) is about to go against him. Remember SOCL in December? Remember when he said spx had 0% chance of going up and then ripped 100 handles in 5 days. Ha. I love when this guy posts.
Yes sir.
AMBA weekly 58.5s FTW. Looks good on all time frames. Looking for about $63 here.
Seriously, fuck this fucking market. Pick a damn direction.
You haven’t put enough quarters in for that to happen yet
How much does this ride cost? I’m out of damn quarters.
No kidding – its like being at the arcade when everyone is watching the one kid play because everyone else is out of quarters – everyone hated that guy and wanted to be that guy at the same time. No one realized we were all losers.
Jeez dude, thats rough.
Anyone playing FB or BABA earnings?
Bought MTW March 20 calls for .90.Might pop with Icahn sniffing about. Congrats to buyers of X. Didn’t look at the chart till end of day so missed it.
OA, are you a BABA dip buyer here ? ER is tomorrow, and price looks tempting.
I grabbed some around 99
Took a starter in $MBLY and added to $TWTR. fighting back the urge to buy more $DHT
Hi Gasman. What do you think of nat gas here? Seems to be finding a base here recently.
2.80 and 3 is the range right now. Good spot for a swing long IMO. I am long but hedged.
$RRC very attractive here. Best in class nat gas producer. $REXX Just announced a huge increase a in their proved reserves in some of the best nat gas acreage out there. Company is priced for bankruptcy, but I can’t for the life of me figure out why. I bought a small position today and will look to add. Has buyout written all over it.