This was the 3rd major conviction day in the Russell since the October lows. Breadth was on fire today, scoring the highest ADV/DEC read in over 2 years. Volatility came in, the Russell led, the Yen was parabolic, TLT sold off, and TWTR was flat.
It’s been a challenging year, and I’ve given back all my gains I had earned. Even if the sun, moon and stars align, even if Santa brings me a rally, or even if my Joe Jacobsen turn date comes as planned….I’m still playing for breakeven at best.
I haven’t been willing to trade against my convictions, which is something I am determined to work on moving forward. Despite being mentally and emotionally drained, I’m still relatively in tact here. I’m ready to put this year behind me and get back to a more productive output for the time we’re investing here.
In closing, I hope everyone is wading through the speed ok. I don’t root for anyone to lose, but the later part of this year has been filled of a whole other element of hate and anger in the comments about who’s right and who’s wrong. I’d rather wave the white flag here and start getting back to a more productive group think. You assholes wear me out. To the others, thank you to those who constantly fill the stream with ideas. That’s why we’re all here.
I’m purging my watchlists tonight and will toss some fresh ideas out here tomorrow.
Stay Frosty,
OA
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Thanks for all you do OA. Have learned a lot from you. Happy Holidays!
You too Woj.
I guess CEO Dickless Kostolo is expecting the axe any day now considering he sold his remaining shares in the TWTR.
Pre-planned sales from July. I wouldn’t read too much into it. It would be nice, but I don’t see it happening unfortunately.
I’ve heard him speak / present back when they IPOed… I liked him a lot. Why the hate?
No hate. I’m just confused as to why he is silent while his stock goes from 56 to 35. I think they are doing a very poor job of explaining the business model.
I had the opposite impression on IPO day – I was not impressed in the least (betas running large companies?!? Give me a break!). But I guess that’s what makes a market.
Picked up WDAY Jan1 calls today. Seems easy to manage from here.
OA – Saw you mentioned you think a lot of the oil names may have bottomed today? What makes you think so? Thanks as always for all of your insights. Happy holidays + new year sir.
Sentiment chart looks compelling. Worth doing a comparison against a basket of names.
Thanks – I understand your perspective, just apprehensive to get burned more on these names when I’ve been crushing myself with what I believe to be higher quality oil names… hah. Thanks as always.
It’s hard to accept the fact that I would have been better off doing the dumbest ETFS investing this year. The only saving grace is that bears and bulls alike got screwed all year long. However, I’ve learned a TON from you in a very short amount of time this year in the worst possible market conditions. I know it will pay off, eventually. Thanks for leading from the trenches.
linmoo-
Don’t beat yourself up too much about that.
20/20 hindsight there is usually a simple stock or whatever trade that could have delivered great results as the year’s single trade.
That sure would be nice for those of us who do our own Schedule D
Been here a year and a half and have seen my account quadruple twice due to your calls and get cut in half twice mostly because of lack of discipline on my part.I resolve to attack my faults by buying low and selling high or at least salvaging premium when the charts say as my news years resolution.By the way where’d ragnar go.Must have lost at least one nut today.
Risk management is job #1. Please for your sake get the fundamentals down before you halve your account again. I got a lot of great advice in this regard from the technical analysis book by Brian Shannon from Alphatrends (no association – I just think he’s a good teacher.)
How can anyone not love BABA as the 2015 play of the year. Chart looks oh so lovely
Don’t know about that. BABA winning next year would mean the plumber with an E-trade account wins. It could be that easy but could not.
My schedule doesn’t allow for active daily trading, so I am indeed eyeing BABA as a play of the year. Go all in oct 130’s or something. Targeting 150
BABA looks like the cup-and-handle is materializing. I like its looks and would be stalking it, if I weren’t already loaded to the gills in social media and oil stocks that I’ve picked up in the last few days (don’t worry – I’m a weak long and will bail at a moment’s notice!)
BABA to $200 in 2015.
Love the idea of ideas…and that being why we are here. Also tend to love talking shit…but I will resist the urge in pursuit of a more workflow conducive atmosphere.
+1
I bought the panicle in Wynn today. Valuation and yield (4.4%) is very compelling support at these levels even if it’s only a trade
Panic
Jeff — thoughts on YY?
Hmmm….
What a shock the loudmouth screamers disappear without even an “oh shit”
Who you callin’ a Ho?
You know what they say Jeff. You build 1000 bridges and no one calls you a bridge builder but you suck one cock and everyone calls you a cock sucker. These asshole pundits posting shit all need to take a step back and have a good think. if you’re so fucking smart go get a couple thousand of your own twitter followers and start your own blog. If you are reading this one maybe try and bring something positive or FUCK OFF. Good night and good luck all
[insert “say hello to my little friend” joke here]
Good post. It’s all about karma. Everyone in this business is wrong a lot. Myself included. The idea is to be more right than wrong and quickly cut your losses when you are not right. Jeff is right this bull bear shit Is for the birds. Let’s all make some scratch next year.
What happened to my avatar.
Maybe this is a sign from the Gravatar gods that it’s time for a change? Surely a few readers around here have an idea or two…?
Anyone remember this guy? If so, I’ll be surprised and impressed… http://i.imgur.com/0QsQwyJ.jpg
Or how about this guy? I didn’t know he had passed away.. http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/man-turned-blue-silver-dies-article-1.1466905
I kinda like the idea of this one. Have to stop for now and get ready for work. http://i.imgur.com/wVD393A.jpg
I have been following Jeff for a year. The two biggest reasons for my losses has been position size and time. When your position size is too big and the stock moves against you, you tend to get nervous a stop out. If you buy many small positions with some time, (30 days min) you can comfortably let them fluctuate.
OA – Thanks for this year. You showed me a new way trade options that actually makes sense. I have had some big wins with the new ideas.
The perma long bond-villains, aka TLT truthers, had their year. They don’t realize it’s a pit-stop, a hesitation, toward greener pastures. They believe they have been vindicated, that oil and breakevens have confirmed that the world is truly going to hell.
Alas, the bond villains will be stuffed into our respective stockings, while they burn, slowly, until they die of carbon monoxide poisoning. Cheers OA.
scaled out of about 1/3 of my FSLR +5.9%
CSIQ? Same chart pattern…
yeah but it’s weird, it was up big pre market and then selling? I’m not sure.
Sold 1/2 BABA YOLO 110 calls +150% playing with house money now. Bot CAT 193 YOLO up 50% already
Cut GPRO -0.6% Not holding losers in this environment. The bottom line is this stock sucks.
Valuation matters in this market…still talking about a company trading at like 120 times trailing net income and 75 times FCF.
If valuation is what’s causing GPRO to drop, why is, for instance, GRPN ripping? I think the market’s much too complex to draw causation from one factor.
There’s going to be some big winners everyday until the new year. Solar was the place to be today, may be retail tomorrow.
sold remaining 2/3 of FSLR here +7.3%. Done until the close and back to heavy cash
Chief, what did you like about FSLR? Great call obviously. Was it simply the break of the falling wedge?
The break of the wedge was a big part but a number of other factors were involved. Oil finding support and the rally in stocks yesterday and some intuition all went in to the trade. It’s always hard to pinpont just one reason to take a trade. Hope that helps.
Thank you sir!
Give the trolls a break you guys. It must be frustrating to be a total fucking douchebag
lol sure does clean up the blog
Look how fast all those cock goblins returned to their bridges — c’est la vie
Bought CSIQ Jan 23 calls.
While everyone I here is busy jerking off on each other because the markets have ripped higher, the $54 YELP puts due to expire tomorrow worked out beautifully as did the GPRO and TWTR puts. None of you have mentioned the fact that oil is down today and is a tell this SnapBack will be short lived. Calm down.
That is all. I’m done. $$$$$$
It’s cool you managed to make a few bucks into that. These stocks are now all back above where we made this bet. This should have just been a fun spirited debate on bull/bear bullshit, but you took this to a disturbing level.
Apologies Jeff…was getting hit from all,sides and went in to pure DICK mode for sure. That was lame on my part…acted like a fucking ass. Best of luck to you! You are a far better trader than I will ever be.
Truce.
@Gasman — taking a good hard look at EVEP here for the long haul.
Every (well amost every entry) I identified last night is long gone. GRPN, FEYE, JCI. GLUU is getting too far gone as well. What’s actionable that hasn’t already went?
The long term wedge on FSLR is beautiful
CSIQ – same pattern and turning here intraday.
I like this action but I’m finally getting some traction in my Jan positions. Looking at Feb in a couple weeks. Maybe volatility will come in and options will be cheaper.
TRLA- kind of like this pull back on light volume. It’s coming into old support here.
OA, for my investment port, is here a good place to add FSLR ? or wait ? Thank you always.
Yes, it is.
“HO…HO…HOPING YOUR BALLS WERE REMOVED” hahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahaha
Fuck yea !!!
In the FWIW column, I pick a few trades to hold long stock in my 401K from the ideas here. BLOX is up a cool 27% from my entry. Thanks to you OA and Merry Christmas.
Glory be got out of my BLOX 17.5 for a triple and FNSR 18 for a double.Best trades for me in awhile.
Jeff does it seem strange the VIX is holding up as well as it is after this giant rally.
No, I think the crowd is nervous as shit.
Joined you in CSIQ Jeff.
BOT Z Jan 120’s. She’s looking to bounce of this trend line IMO. Already own TRLA.
I’ve been neutered.