The 1998 references are swirling the internet these days referencing the dollar strength and oil weakness comparisons. Again, we’ve been following this same analogue since March. The most critical difference is that during that time period, the S&P 500 saw roughly a 22% decline in the fall of 98. This year, we’ve had three market declines of 4%, 10%, and currently working on about 5%. Despite the lack of the big correction, underneath the surface we’ve had countless stocks down more than 20% on the year and still holding those losses.
For tradeable lows, I follow the $NYMO which printed -81 yesterday. Oil is somewhat stable, and the oil service stocks are bid here. The divergence in risk stocks is mixed, but look at the divergence in the Russell here, being the first Index to go green this morning.
As we discussed last night in After Hours with Option Addict, in this high volatility environment, go easy with options. They tend to get expensive in these environments. However, this has the look of bounce here…so start building a list.
Top picks: BABA, BAC, FB, SCTY, ERX.
OA
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SCTY is a fav. Love BABA too just scared of the lockup expiration.
when is this ‘lockup expiration?’
12/19
Did BABA received some kind of exemption from the standard 180 day lockup expiration? As I recall, some insiders were allowed to sell on the initial offering and YHOO agreed to a one year lockup, but I couldn’t for any information on an early lockup expiration for the remaining shareholders.
i have a feeling THE trading moment to secure your reputation once and for all is coming. The kind of gains that make winter 2013 look like child’s play.
hi matt_b
sup homie. chest and tri’s last night?
?
you even lift bro?
Pencil me in
last night was clean like a psycho and burn thickets of sage to ward off the seller vikings
iBC, PPT, 12631 already missed the trade of the year, so good luck with your prediction.
You didn’t predict that move either. You chased it like everyone else.
I posted Nov 27th on your blog to short oil: small drillers and services.
Oil Bbl priced at $74 the day after my post.
So if you had “chased” my short trade, you would have made +30%. But whatever you do, don’t let pride get in the way of a good trade.
And may I remind you of your post of Dec 4th,
“The Russell and Crude are setting up here. The Russell is holding its ground, north of 1170 while Crude is probing $68. This little dip in the NASDAQ may be your last dip buy here for the next two weeks.
I still like the energy theme for the near term.”
SPWR been strong from the open
Gasman, you out there?
How can I be of service?
My strategy for today has been selling oil stocks into the rip and getting long oil the commodity.
That’s what I was wondering, thanks.
I like the look at $MITL long.
The Fly is down 44% after recent losses in yelp, slca, trn, gpro etc…..i know you are faring much better, where do you stand? tough mkt out there
I’m down.
I remain short YELP and TWTR on strikes that expire Friday 🙂
Let those nuts get crushed!
Hey now..both puts are up this morning…yelp more so than TWTR. They both continue to look weak.
Those cheap calls in UBNT are paying off big time.
CAB has an interesting look. Surely our Appalachian brethren will be stocking up for the coming apocalypse…?
What? Did we just got invaded?
OA kidnapped by KGB?
Wana see declines ‘russian style’…
Sberbank – major russian bank, third largest in europe, 19000 branches – SBRCY down 70% since summer – PE 4
Gazprom – major russian oil and gas, owner of worlds’ largest pipeline system – OGZPY down 50%+ since summer – PE 1 (ONE!)
Just be careful buying this shit – russians have a habit of just closing stock market down when SHTF
Это пиздец
Let’s not have short memories. The market can reverse in an instant. Let’s see if we can make it unscathed to 3:00
+1 If you have a good profit take it.Fed tomorrow.today looks like a gift.
well that’s a 100 points shed in 60 minutes.
Let’s hope the fade is done.
Now its almost 200. Sheesus.And i’m seeing the VXX p/c at 1.5. Always a bad sign.
Just saying…
If you play for dividends..
The energy related MLPs have been totally destroyed in the last month or so. It is to the point where some dividend yields are 25-30%. Even if (and there is still a big if) these MLPs cut their dividend, the move lower has been overblown. I ended up picking up LINE and MCEP yesterday with YOC at 30%+.
For a longer term hold, I like the medium risk / high reward here. Note, MLPs are a pain to deal with at tax time (K-1s) and you should not hold them in retirement accounts. Not for everyone.
Also, some of the REITs and other high dividend paying stocks (insurance companies) have been hit lately. Some of this is market related and some of this is end of year selling, but there are some good dividend plays to monitor.
LINE and MCEP both have a ton of debt. Divvy may go away at these low oil prices.
Yes, these stocks are certainly not the cream of the crop. If oil prices stay depressed, LINE will have serious problems in 2016. I am risking the dividend being cut and/or the stock going to $0. But, if the move lower is overblown, I can capture some big upside in the stock and have a large dividend producer.
I have a portfolio dedicated to boring, dividend producing stocks. Lots and lots of slow moving names. A .5-1% portfolio risk on stuff like keeps the portfolio interesting.
FWIW my favorite MLP for the long term is $EVEP. they are part midstream company and part nat gas focused E&P. They own a ton of Utica shale acreage and have only ~10% exposure to oil.
December 19 is BABA lockup expiry. Who knows though it could rally either wsy
thx
Totally agree on the risk profile for options at this time. Waiting for price acceptance here for a couple of days before getting into depreciating assets here.
I’ll watch and will congratulate those who buy the bottom, because they will be my reference point when I buy.
Sold 1/2 my Oil position +1.9. Will hold the rest and see how we close. Stop at B/E. Hope some people caught the move!
SOCL Gap down:
http://scharts.co/1swXTjo
Yelp put options Dec. $54 strikes up nicely this morning as are the TWTR $38’s. Both looking weak heading in to Friday, folks. $$$$$$
Rags you always show up around lunch, is your net worth $72 mil? You should hurry along before you miss your life skills class.
crack crack goes that gdxj stabilizing bid…tough Q1 15 for gold
Out of everything + 100% on all my option plays except for TRLA. Market getting weak again. I’m a day trader until we get some solid footing
Hey that’s not nice, Chief.
Give me my proper on the TWTR, YELP Dec. expiry’s my man. They are both winners.
Nice job with the oil trade.
if you stop using so many alias so I can see exactly what your trading I’ll give you your props. Use one handle.
Understood.
The Fly is down 44% after recent losses in yelp, slca, trn, gpro etc…..i know you are faring much better, where do you stand? tough mkt out there
I’m down.
Ha, I made some money off of Russia this morning through the $RUSL. Once oil took off, it seemed a good bet that Russia would benefit. Mostly I owe thanks to Gasman as I followed him into $BAS yesterday and $REXX this morning.
Nice trades. You might want to take profits here if you haven’t already. energy names reversing.
Thx Gasman, one thing you can depend on as a nervous market newbie, I always sell too soon…but thanks so much for your insight…I did alot of research into oil stocks last night and found out you are spot on about buying oil companies with exposure to nat gas. That will carry the strongest through depressed oil prices.
SLCA Dec 25 Calls for the YOLO….
OA – I am now being moderated, and not sure if my comments are posting. Do you care for the CAB? ImpVol doesn’t seem horrendous..
Not sure why you were flagged, but I approved it. Love retail, the setup is great, plus its hunting season.
Would presume I was flagged because R.W. Pelican is an excellent judge of character. Thanks for the reply.
FYI…..hunting season (deer) is almost over in most places.
DUCK SEASON BRO.
Thx OA. I can’t make heads or tails of this market. So your insights are much appreciated.
Thank God I got out with profits. Utter BS a 200 point fade on DIA in 2 hours
Here comes the whipsaw.Is that your 4140 or fight Raul?
Something is amiss underneath the surface here. You don’t rip like that in the morning and then give it all back in 2 hours…usually. If that was the bounce…wow.
The smartest thing I heard this year was OA’s Maximum Pain Market Theory. It’s on full display once again.
This does not feel right
Last time I uttered those words I was in a prison shower
If i don’t add to mu shorts we crash. If I add we rip much higher. I am paralyzed at the moment.
BLUE. Is there any way of telling whether this is big money or retail creating this volatility? Or does it not matter.
Retail can’t move markets like this.
OK.That might explain why highs or lows of the day often come early.I don’t get sucked in the way i used to.Still learning from you all.
These are whispers of de-leveraging and margin calls. Some one very big is off sides. When it hits the press we will be lower and you cover that day if short.
Did you add to shorts?
No. I am a pussy. I wanted to see Janet’s hand. we will know more tomorrow. I may add if I like what I hear.
I read that when you posted to your blog – and got delta neutral on almost all of my positions. The one or two that I haven’t don’t that to yet are probably getting hedged tomorrow. Thank you for your post sir.
You are welcome. trying to spread good karma.
don’t be selfish…triple your position.
Long TF 1142.5. We can go lower now.
nice entry
Good luck bros. I’m adding some QQQ puts to my IWM puts.
Nice retracement this is the spot to buy if you think we bounce.
At least the rip up allowed me some premium salvage on a few Fri. expirations. So now do we rip back up again? Let’s see what happens at 2:30.
ужасно название блога
But its true. It has to be.
I sure hope so
TWTR and YELP puts EXPLODING HIGHER!!!!!! I think this wins the gentleman’s bet. The put options in social media “growth stocks” proved to be major winners in the end, when it counted, despite them holding their own last week as the markets pulled back. Expiry is Friday and these two are big winners right now. Let ’em run and enjoy the ride.
Good luck to everyone going forward.
купить дизайнерскую обуви склад
I will end with this….LET OIL BE YOUR GUIDE GUYS. Oil has not found a bottom yet and things are going to get worse before they get better. QQQ puts exploding higher now too after they backtested 50 ema this morning. BOUNCES WILL BE SOLD UNTIL OIL FINDS A BOTTOM.
Good luck to you all!!!!!!!!!
-Ragnar
End? You’ve been 90% of all comments posted since 12/5. Why stop here?
Because I’ve proved my point now with the growth stocks and “shorting them in the hole” in the face of a falling market. They held up for a few days, but tanked in the end when it counted most, as expected. Good luck to you next year, OA. Sorry I cluttered up the blog so much. Will never post here again under ANY alias.
Those stocks are flat dude.
http://scharts.co/1BUYnrV
Remember, Expiry if Friday. These are done.
You fucking fraud. This wasn’t a good call on your part. These stocks were up daily last week into a 4% decline…this was a good call on your part? You warned or helped someone here with your chaotic rants in 40 different aliases talking to one another? YOU PICKED THE ONLY STOCKS THAT DIDNT GO DOWN LAST WEEK.
Here’s a clue:
SPX, QQQ, RUT, AAPL, etc etc etc all backtested their respective 50 EMA’s this morning on the bounce and got rejected. Anyone who is looking to get long is nuts (extra nut crusher). Great action thus far today as the bounces continue to get sold. Markets are in deep do doo.
Said it weeks couple weeks ago and I’ll say it again..No X-Mas rally this year.
Please say it 10,000 more times u are such a well meaning guy
Right on. Closed my SPY long for a sizable loss and went short near the close. The gains in my Oil short partially offset the loss. I think the S&P will test the Oct lows in short order.
OA;
What do you make of these movements; I figured we would have a cemented bounce today. Instead we just got a choppy mess
I like the RUT divergence and oil flat, but this has been shit chop all day.
Только что вернулся из Сибири. Все произошло так, как я отсутствовал ?
OA, how pissed is the fly right now?
Are you a reporter?
Back in QQQ weekly calls.. Down on them so far (thats nothing new) but I’m hopeful.
An old name from the OA list I used to follow a lot ARWR ripped nice today.
Some of the comments left here over the last few days represent everything I hate about the internets
+1
i can only comment on what i see. Twitter opened December at 41 and it’s now 35. My dec twtr calls (43’s) are zero’s. I also see the daily /ES range being a 50 handle candle. That’s not good either. Today has more of a 2008 feel after watching this rally fail hard.
Wow glad I’m all cash here WTF is going on in the markets
Yeah I’m pretty much all cash. You can sleep well!
With the way the USD.JPY is tanking into the U.S. close and the threat of terrible headlines out of Russia and/or Europe I feel like I have to press these markets shorts overnight.
really hard to hold anything significant overnight. Gun to the head I would be long but this is a daytraders market.
Bullseye.
Maybe tonight we can have a “Markets In Peril” Edition of AHWOA.
Let’s do it.
Hope you can get the scary sound track in time
Russian accent plz?
I did not short more. I am a ginourmous pussy and it is assured that we now crash.
I was banking on this. Check’s in the mail.
If we do I still make a shit load of money.
RIght there with you. I’ve been pyramiding the shit out of my gains up and down. This either ends gloriously or I lose most of those same gains.
We aren’t gonna crash. It’s stupid to think that. But we may pull back for another 5%
You are correct crashes are very stupid. The can be avoided. They happen every 25-30 years. The last one was 28 years ago in 1987.
The last crash was 25-30 years ago? What about 1998? Or 2001? Or 2008? Or 2011?
Is it normal for $3.7 billion worth of SPY trades to cross throughout the day at basically the same price? Is this the Fed buying SPY?
https://twitter.com/nanexllc/status/544941976215617536
So… What’s to stop an unaudited fed from buying up s&p futures contracts so as to avoid any unpleasantness?
Nothing at all.
Oil services look cheap now? Just wait, it gets better than this. But heaven forbid should Fly buy some over priced company thinking this is the bottom. Wonder how many will follow the trade…
Moment of truth for TSLA being quickly separated from the momo group . Tough to short and puts are very expensive , however , notice that Elon has been quiet for quite some time . Seriously , what can this thing really be worth ???
Futures up 8 handles on the DOW and all other indices are green. Nikkei rallied two percent overnight. Somehow I am still scared shitless to put anything on due to the fades which have been occurring.
Hell; maybe that is what Mr. Market wants scare the shit out of everyone and then rip higher with a bunch of cynical traders sitting in a semen filled dumpster broke and angry they missed one of the best rallies before the new year.
Well played Mr. Market Well Played INDEUD
Futures look ready to roll over with the yen here.
Yea I was watching the fade. Not appetizing at all; wonder if I should press some shorts here
Be careful shorting. I’m bearish still long term but we don;t go over the cliff today after this much selling already. There will be a retracement of this leg lower to suck in the bulls and then WHACK. At least that’s what I’m looking for.
I agree its unwise to short…I think it may be unwise for a while.
Short DIA 171.85
Looks like traders are piling into usd.jpy ahead of the fed. would not be surprised if the news is sold.
Did I read this correctly? Blue star saying there was no crash in 2001, 2008 or 2011??? Wff???
Every bone in my body is telling me to double down short here.