Epic fade off the strength this morning. Apparently, the market still won’t sell its TWTR, YELP, FB or P just yet as all these stocks continue to hold gains and get bid underneath the broad market weakness. As for our discussions on this matter going back to last Friday, I still think this cannot go ignored.
As of this moment, the $NYMO has tripped oversold. If your view point has changed in regards to this market, there will be a rally for you to sell soon.
More later,
OA
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Retail holding up. Trashy, but ARO appeals to me. Can’t quit looking at HIIQ today, either..
try APP for the win.
Taxmonster – I see APP as a real possibility. TLYS is hard for me, here. Maybe on a pullback?
yeah I am not sure any of these stocks are going to pull back since many are at the lows for the year. I like all retail here – I have PSUN, TLYS, ZUMZ, APP
Also TLYS looks like a nice one as well.
Lets not forget ZQK.
JP – that Quicksilver absolutely beasted the last two days… all while the indexes plummet.
I can’t buy or sell anything right here. The most uncomfortable trade of the year.
By far.
Same. Not adding to shorts. not covering either.
BTW, I know you hate the Utes as a trade, but check out ETR. Awesome structure on the 10yr, just retesting a breakout now, and might actually a decent play in this macro environment.
Small long SVXY 59.4
Then again, P printed 52 wk lows today and YELP is $3 above its 52 wk low.
nibbled on jan in the money calls FSLR SCTY. weeklies in IWM. damn near caught the lows. and TWTR. My hunch is this was a massive fake out in the Iwm range. Power thru to the upper side of the range til end of the year…..
Jeff,
You need to heed the advise of Dr. Fly! He saw this rout coming a couple weeks ago and clearly stated that until oil found a bottom, the markets would not hold any rally. So far, so very good! Short the bounces and let oil be your guide my friend. It’s really just that simple.
+1
But wait, you and I are locked in one specific bet, yes? Are you right thus far?
Corn is my ho ho ho
Corn-ho?
No, Cornholio!
https://images.search.yahoo.com/images/view;_ylt=A0LEVvRZMY9U9xMA5DcPxQt.;_ylu=X3oDMTBsa3ZzMnBvBHNlYwNzYwRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkAw–?p=cornholio&back=https%3A%2F%2Fsearch.yahoo.com%2Fyhs%2Fsearch%3Fp%3Dcornholio%26ei%3DUTF-8%26hsimp%3Dyhs-001%26hspart%3Dmozilla&w=600&h=450&imgurl=i89.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fk209%2FCobalis%2Fcornholio.jpg&size=24KB&name=cornholio.jpg&rcurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.freerepublic.com%2Ffocus%2Ff-chat%2F2806196%2Fposts&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.freerepublic.com%2Ffocus%2Ff-chat%2F2806196%2Fposts&type=&no=8&tt=120&oid=699d593dad358c76e70d60a6a5e9d659&tit=Cornholio+Pictures%2C+Images+and+Photos&sigr=11mk11miu&sigi=11lrklepj&sign=10dup1du9&sigt=103vg5ole&sigb=12ll46c0i&fr=yhs-mozilla-001&hspart=mozilla&hsimp=yhs-001
try that again ….
http://i89.photobucket.com/albums/k209/Cobalis/cornholio.jpg
I’ve had a decent month fading any gap up opens. Worked pretty well today. I’m on the strugglebus when it comes to picking our usual high momentum breakouts, so I had to switch it up a little.
+1
Just another day at the office and another gap up bull trap! The tide has finally changed!
Until they reverse the gap down tomorrow for a two-day rip rally.
Bought RDWR Mar 23’s at .85.Support 21.5 today. To chicken to buy Jan. Think sentiment getting bearish as hell. VIX spiking which is good. Here comes Santa.
XON and KORS holding up wonderfully. Z faded but didn’t break.
Long SPY calls here off the 50 day. Lets see they are YOLO’s kind of it is Monday so not sure about the term but for the sake of Semantics. I like it off the 50
Purchased January TRLA 52.50’s and also TXRH $35’s. Good setups lets hope Crude Oil doesn’t poop on my setups
yoga pants.
hahahahahhahahahahahaha
“Ho Ho Hold Me !!”
Out UVXY @28.5 – want to lock in profits.
nice trade
Some scary stuff going on with high yield here. This may not affect us today, this week or this month, but something to watch going into 2015.
i dont know what youre looking at in high yield, the ETF or something else, but im looking at the CDX NA HY swaps, and the spreads have been widening out enough for us to notice – between that and the EEM action, im not happy
Azulgrana I think the decrease in liquidity from the end of QE is having an adverse effect on the entire system, but this is far beyond what anyone thought possible.
VSLR back from the dead
The spreads are getting to be insane. IMO many of the debt ridden energy companies are already insolvent, we just haven’t been told yet. I’m having flashbacks to 2008 here. We probably won’t see the chickens come home to roost for a few months at least.
TWTR – big ol nasty black candle. Doh!
Indeud. More bulls trapped.
OA, when I asked last week regarding $veev, you mentioned you are watching but want lower prices. Today 24 see a greater than normal decline. Would this decline refrain you from looking to get into this anymore?
Yeah, pass at this point.
Nothing to trade right now. The only thing I’m interested in here is getting long the Euro. No position yet but I like the chart.
I also think the NQ hits 4115-4120 before we get a tradable bounce.
+1
If looking for bio, CLDX at support off a bull flag.Maxxed out on risk capital but would buy in this range as long as it holds around 17
NDX tanking nicely 🙂
Puts exploding higher….again 🙂
would be interesting to know how many retail investors leave the market after this year.
This is worse than 2011, no? Stocktwits traffic is getting hit.
I work for a company that sells live market data / trading software. I can tell you both that based on my sales numbers, it’s a LOT.
The stats on my side are the worst I’ve seen in a decade. Talked to my guy at AMTD. The phone traffic died. They are worried they won’t have jobs soon.
Wife works at TD Jeff – although with only High Value Asset Clients. She said everyone is frozen. Sitting on their hands, not sure what to do. It’s not just a chart, but what seems to be a whole industry in frustration mode. Something will give, and soon.
Interesting, I wonder if we are looking at big money rotations as FED witching ends – which was patching a giant economic pothole and made kind of a crappy, confusing road – so the training wheels are coming off and the whole place is wobbling like a kid a new xmas bike. Come on kid, pedal!
don’t fall into the pothole.
I love visualizations, and this is a good one
Have a bad feeling about another crash-type close.
Anyone have the NYMO reading?
fucked
LOL.
I just laughed out loud, literally
Jeff. what do you think of AXL as a buy off bull flag?
Nice profile above.
Thanks .will be stalking it after this market settles down.
…and the collapse in oil continues for the win.
+2
Hear Ye! Hear Ye!
..assume the position for the shagging in proper is commencing (Have a Holly Jolly Xmas playing in the background).
Lumps of coals this year for the bulls!
OA, Have $LULU Dec calls expiring this week. It is holding well, I am feeling nervous about this. Dont want to lose the gains, but seeing how well it is holding compared to market – cant decide. Can you please give your feedback.
My target was $60, but if you have a gain in this market, chances are you will lose it.
Say it aint so, Jeff!! Don’t give in now…shorting in to the hole doesn’t work! 🙂
Can you imagine if the pro’s who short oil last week did not take the trade because oil was so deep in the hole then? Your thesis of not shorting in to the hole is akin to shorting a stock at it’s 52 week highs because “it is over extended”. Just sayin’
Thanks for the feedback. Then Is it a good idea to roll to Jan expiration? Thanks again.
Just ask yourself, if you didn’t own Jan calls, would you chase them up here? You can book gains, but you’d have to wait for another entry.
Booked the gains. Will wait for better entry. Thanks again for the feedback.
Thanks again for the feedback yesterday about $LULU calls. Looks like that was perfect timing.
The Saudis will NOT BE GETTING A CHRISTMAS CARD FROM ME THIS YEAR. Thanks a lot guys. sniff sniff
LOL
+100!
Global exchanges getting absolutely pummeled here…ouch
Covering here and going Long IWM for a last hour bounce.
Atta boy. Everyone needs to try and be a hero now and then (extra GPRO/Fly). Let us know how that works out for you.
I know you’re not talking to me….since you know, I’ve been nailing the Russell moves up and down for two weeks.
“Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!” (chorus)
SOCL chart:
http://scharts.co/1BQ8Zs3
Ha, you are up .40 cents MAYBE on that bet here. I’d be worried you picked the wrong bet given how much the market has fallen.
I have this whole week 🙂
I said the same thing last week. This thing doesn’t move, why waste the capital? I could probably name 500 better shorts out there given the fact that we have just seen about 100 handles of downside and this thing has lost .40 since then.
A different look at SOCL for those whose charts are able to zoom out a little further in time….
http://imgur.com/3CNFqsP
All you had to do was follow oil. It was just that simple.
Dec 20 QQQ puts ripping tits 🙂
Yoga pants taking off1
FWIW, JNK is printing a massive reversal hammer today and coincided with the turn back in October.
OIL
Knockout volume (extra Mike Tyson)!
http://scharts.co/1BQaQgm
The global stocked markets should react favorably to this any moment, right?
“There will be blood”
Man i hate chest thumpers.Gets like stocktwats .Anyways networking and net security stocks are holding up FNSR JNPR CIEN CAV etc.
Add FNSR to those
Meant RKUS
Gold is in a free fall. So much for that ‘safety’ hedge.
Crazy how VJET is on a 1 stop trip to 0. 3D stocks getting crushed anytime the bell rings. Eventually these will be the trade of the century. But you will probably have to wait a few years for the ultimate trade.
I really dislike, even perhaps hate that fucking HedgeEye guy.
Sorry everyone. My bad.
Hey, im still in JDST from like a month ago. Still bearish on gold till 900 right?
wow you held $JDST that long? My timing is off so don’t listen to me, but I would cash that, which probably means holding is the move 🙂
well i have a large gold position in my IRA, so i held this as a hedge. Its a small position so i can withstand the volatility. Entry is around 13.. I want to see 40 again. Just curious if thats in the cards
Bought some CLDX at 17
Dec put options up a combined 277% today…and it’s only Monday. Markets lost September high support today. Oil continues to get slaughtered and global markets breaking down through all sorts of supports. Bullish, right?
Game over for bulls until new year.
“There will be blood”
+1 (for the win)
Ragnar.Bull markets rotate from sector to sector.Bull is not done.Unless Russia pulls some shit.
Russia just blinked…again. They raised rates from 10% to 17% after our markets bell rung. Can you say, “Holy SHIT!!”
Light out for global markets my friend…and yes, the Fed knew this was going to happen and will not save the conditioned “dip buyers” any longer. Remember, they announced the ending of QE recently and are in “stand down” mode.
Markets will continue to collapse on the heels of this Russian BOMB SHELL.
…got puts? 🙂
sheesus they did.but futures are up.already discounted possibly? Congrats on your wins.Everybody is right sometimes. OA’s analysis has garnered massive wins overall, i mean massive.We’ll see what tomorrow brings. Good luck.
Thanks Biffer. I know OA is very good at what he does and picks winners over losers more often than not. I was just giving him shit the past couple of weeks because I honestly could not see how he was buying stocks as oil was collapsing…I knew the contagion would spread, and it did. I think OA is a top notch trader most of the time truth be told. He knows I was ribbing him a bit…he’s a great sport.
As for markets? They are headed lower. The Russian hike is a panic move and oil has no signs of catching a bid here. If short, stay short.
Ragnar, what are your positions right now?
Our gentleman’s bet was:
Put options GPRO, TWTR, YELP, GOGO, QQQ and SPX
Ragnar, no…it wasn’t a market bet at all.
Sorry. I have the SPX and Q’s…not part of the bet. Got excited
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/files/2014/12/tothemanofmanyaliases.png
FEYE…forgot about that one from the 5th. Cut loose. Think I’m getting wires crossed with my plays vs. Chiefton more recently.
You approached me about my thesis. My thesis was that the growth names (TWTR, YELP, FB, LNKD, etc) were not going lower. On average they are up from where we took this bet….which is impressive given the rout in the overall markets.
FedEx records busiest day in company history:
http://www.wmcactionnews5.com/story/27631517/fedex-expects-to-move-226m-packages-in-busiest-day-in-company-history
Jeff,
I apologize for cluttering up the blog at times whilst my conviction was at its peak on these trades. I was adamant that falling oil would kill any bounce attempts in the markets and pounded the table a bit too hard admittedly. You deserve better. Sorry my man.
Time for a steak…rare.
-Ragnar
“This Is The End” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRwwUZLV-IE. I think this site attracts contrary SOB’s and you are one!
I think you might get your nuts crushed in the morning Ragnar.
For those still in the Gold Bear cave… this is looking pretty sweet here.
http://imgur.com/hZoxdtQ
long NQ 4112
sweaty palms
out 1/2 +10 that was quick
Rock solid support here in the NQ. I think this holds, should present some great day trading opps.
Out last 1/2 +18. Sorry for littering up the stream. I’m going to start posting daytrades on twitter FWIW
I love when you post here, fwiw.
Awesome Chief! I wanted a bigger drop am then this. Either way we are oversold now; should get a nice reversal through the week. Happy we aren’t opening up again
Russia is dead and oil is low; best news ever unless you’re a commi
OIL setting up for a monster bounce here. Bet it closes green tooday
Master chief – what makes you say that?
anyone taking a swing at that IWM second half of December trade today? high level of discomfort there which makes me think it’s the right trade
chart is squeezed, falling wedges on multiple time frames. I’m in at 54.3, not a trade for the faint of heart though. Palms are extra sweaty on this one.
missed it, hell of a call so far
Long DIA calls from 171
In some USO calls here also I realize the IV is high keeping a tight watch on
here we go boys and girls, Oil on the move
If this trade plan comes together I’ll be surprised took DIA AAPL and USO calls. All seem to be working here up 20 % so far. Market bouncing. God I hope USO rips tits Chiefton…lol Make all the idiots eat their pooo.
Jeff the your indicator may have worked again here.
I hope so too!!
Risk reward here to ‘buy the blood’ is good. I like GPRO if we stabilize
Closed the morning gap and trended down. Lets see if we catch a bid
This is one day I’m not stepping away from my computer. All in monitoring until 4pm; not to be annoying or anything. Just feel like blogging today. UBNT looking good here; hope it holds
Safe to buy here. Buyers have stepped up big time.
Good lord did we catch a bid. Nice
Flipped my QQQ puts into QQQ calls. Gotten the hang of trading this lately. Sucked at our usual MOMO stocks so switched it up and had a good run. It willwork until it doesn’t. 🙂
Getting my teeth kicked in on my TRLA play from yesterday but it’s a January play