Honestly, I just wanted to write a blog that would enable me to post this pic one last time.
I had a local basketball coach call me out of nowhere last night asking me about Gold and why it isn’t going up.
The natives are getting nervous.
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did you get back into JDST?
I am long from $15ish with a 7% size.
what’s your price target?
i have 4000 left http://prntscr.com/51adpj
GDR
Looks like gold is going to “rally” off of $1195
It takes someone driven by emotion to buy gold here. There is no reason gold can’t drop 200 in just a couple days sometime very soon.
Higher short term rates, no inflation, not a fed-supported market… crash time.
I can’t wait for the conspiracy theories to start flying about everything gold. I listen to multiple radio stations driving to work and all the conservative stations still have gold advertisements on them, not so with the liberal stations. Will be interesting to see if they stop or increase in volume….
sure feels like that motivated buyer from Tuesday is back…hopefully you guys got some TWTR on the cheap this morning
This post made me think of my days playing football in Jr High w/ a young gent whose surname was Alumbaugh. The coach would call him “aluminum balls”. Soon we all called him that, until his mother made a complaint against the coach…
That illustration needs a sign with an arrow that says “lick here”
VEEV and AVNR waking up.
I will be looking to start a position in SLW and GG pretty soon.
Great job guys on the JDST. Couldn’t get in and not chase.
((NICE)) move, OA
Lots of air below RGLD. If gold does drop, this should get killed. Most miners are at or below their June 2013 lows. This is 20 points above.
Wow… 5y chart on RGLD looks like a giant H&S pattern with a target around -$20.
Anybody seen JakeGint?
Yep, unless gold bounces, this has $52 written all over it by November expiry. check out the volume pocket on the 5 year as well.
Hilarious
Bought PCRX today around $90. I know this company fairly well. It will be a big biotech company. Their drug is completely replacing opioids like morphine and oxycodone in hospitals. Huge potential.
Looking to join you there at some point. I have access to hospital pharmacists where i work.
OA, when managing your hedges, seeing that the ^RUT has been amazingly strong, do you take off your hedge or you just leave it on and not care
The rut hasn’t been amazingly strong dude. One day in the last 8 it performed better.
i guess today is #2
Somebody just woke up GPRO — all aboard!
Check out NUS. Looks pretty attractive for a long entry. A lot of empty space above. Thoughts?
Question for OA and all the experienced people- I have been trading for over 2 years now with a full time job. Lately, I have reached a point of total frustration as my account doesn’t seem to grow and remains stagnant. My portfolio always seems to be flat when I net the gains and losses. Keep in mind that my equity is small (only 20k). What am I doing wrong here? My risk management is fairly good (since I have avoided material drawdowns). However, the goal of growing my equity via technical/short term trading is becoming a challenge. I have been watching AHWOA like with 100% dedication in order to learn. Any inisight/tips on how to improve will be appreciated. Ps- I hate my day job lol
Hard to say what you’re doing wrong. What’s your strategy typically? How long do you hold? How many stocks do you hold at a time?
swing trading, holding not more than 2-3 stocks, look for breakout setups so usually hold time is less not more than a week at most. Similar to OA’s style
Are you looking for near term catalysts if you’re swing trading? I’ve had my most success knowing a fundamental catalyst that is coming up and trying to buy in anticipation of other traders flocking to it.
Yes but then that means you are more of a fundamental trader. I place more reliance on technical trading with less reliance on fundamental trading
Realize that your trading does make three people wealthy; your broker, Uncle Sam, and whatever premium service providers you are signed up with. Then read “Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth”, “The Behavior Gap”, and “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever need”. These books all have 4.7 or higher ratings on Amazon, because they are worth their weight in gold (when gold was worth something), and actually help to generate real wealth.
I am actually looking for good reads. Do these books actually teach you investing or its more of those general/inspirational talk books. Excuse my ignorance here
They help to put you in the right frame of mind for making good decisions. There is a time and place for speculation, but that is only one component of an overall plan for building wealth. I’d also add “The Success Equation”, “Fooled by Randomness” “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” “The Richest Man in Babylon”. When it comes to trading, this site and its readers are a great resource for generating ideas and understanding sentiment in real time. A healthy dose of skepticism any time someone tries to forecast the future will go a long way as well.
hard to say without knowing what some of your trades were…entries/exits. It hasn’t been easy this year, so don’t be discouraged…but it’s good you’re willing to take a step back and try to figure out what to change. if you want to review past trades, either post them here or you can e-mail and we can take a look…not that I’m an expert, but I can offer an opinion. (On the other hand, you’ve managed to not blow up your account this year, and that’s good compared to several others…the fat pitch will come).
With only 2-3 trades on at a time, you don’t have many balls in the air that can net you a big winner. In certain environments, you don’t want to juggle too many balls, but when the environment is better, you have to give yourself more opportunities. if you had on 6-10 trades and continued to manage well on your exits to the downside, you’ve got 3-7 more opportunities to get the bigger wins. That doesn’t mean take trades to take trades, you still need to find good risk:reward setups.
awesome man. Would love to review trades etc. whts email address can i reach you at?
my holdings as of now: Loco @ 36, tsla @222 twtr @ 40.
loco- breakout play. looking for target of 40. short term hold
tsla- always bounced off 200ma, long term hold
twtr- good spot to buy given close to gap fill. stop below 39. long term hold
[email protected] I’ll check e-mail there this weekend. Are you subscribed to AHWOA?
Yes. But i watch the recorded sessions because of my day job so i always miss out on asking questions live
Are you doing well in obvious bull markets like late 2013 to early 2014? Are you waiting too long to get cautious? Not letting profits ride? What’s your win:loss ratio? And, are you putting in a lot of review time, journaling, and tracking of your trading/psychology?
If your balance has been stagnant in your first 2 years of trading, you’re doing fine. You’re getting free education and experience. Keep doing more of what has worked for you and less of what hasn’t and you’ll become profitable. Rule of thumb seems to be that even the best traders needed 3-5 years.
I’m fairly similar Alec, have gained ground and have built up the trading account but not steady enough to quit the day job(frustrating!) and definitely flat lately, took some hits, regained some ground, mixed. In my case, been focusing on how I was wrong on the trade, how I was right, and how my own analysis/psychology is factoring on the wins/losses. My biggest lesson lately – being right on each trade is the wrong worry, instead, “trading well” on what I see – not believe if that makes sense. Personal psychology I suppose makes everyone’s winning style a little different.
One of my thoughts is to get a great wireless/cell internet package and liquidate into a mobile command center aka airstream or diesel RV 🙂 haha. Risky but would be awesome and could focus more. Cheap rent area may be another way, I’m suspicious living like an artist may be needed to focus and transition. But like people have said, this year has been tough so avoiding major draw down may be a win here.
Go back and read the OA and Fly comment sections from 3 mos, 6 mos, 1 year, etc.. going back and see how the names keep changing. Go on stocktwits and look at the “member since” dates of the people commenting on your favorite tickers. Its harder to even avoid blowing up than people here will ever admit to. Turning 20-30k into a living by trading is damn near impossible unless your expenses are zero. SPY is up nearly 50% since Nov ’12, yet i bet less than 1/4 of the people here can say the same, minus taxes and commissions. If the greatest bull run in modern history didn’t produce a bunch of full time trading millionaires, what will? People keep saying its been such a tough year, but when you look at the year as a hole, what specifically made it so tough, that you wouldn’t expect to see in future years?
while many probably view this year as a “hole”, i meant to say “whole”
Bruce Dickenson had gold plated diapers.
OA ya still like GOGO ?? its basing
MBLY is teasing me. Damn
OA FLTX, took some profits on Nov 35’s, still have a few contracts. With roughly 20% short interest, does target of $39 seem reasonable 21 days to exp or is there a pocket higher?
Has anyone seen…..NUUUGGGTTT???
SPY went down 20% and back up 20% in 6 weeks. It is what it is but is that a healthy market? I’ve never seen anything like it and we are either in a blow off top and it just keeps going for months or this is a huge bull trap. At this point they seem like the only 2 scenarios to me.
Speed at the highs means one of two things.
Strange day. Utilities & Healthcare leading, Dow and S&P outperforming Nasdaq and Russell … but everything performing well (except my idiotic shorts, which I would liquidate but for the preceding).
NOBODY HAS EVEN MENTIONED THAT THE MARKET BROKE TODAY. BLACKOUT.
I bought a tiny position in 11/7 TZA 14.50 calls just now. I have an uneasy feeling so I want to put a little hedge on my RHT and LOCO which are both working well so far.
Damn my entries in TUBE and JMEI looking the best ideas I’ve had. Keep em runnin
The main thing that appears to be confirming a blow off top seems to be the movement out of Gold. I think large sums of cash are moving I to the equity markets and leaving the yellow stuff.
Did a lot of call buying
100 DDD Weekly (next week) 40’s @ .25
50 MACK Nov 10’s @ .47
NDLS Nov 22.5’s @ 1.25
TWTR Nov 45’s @ .92
GPRO weekly 71’s @ 2.2
If you made it through this stretch then you have what it takes to be a trader.
EVERYONE WRITE THIS DOWN IMMEDIATELY.
I wrote it down, but damn I’m trading on fumes here.
LOL. i “made” it, but the wound in the account needs stitching.
Define “making it”. I had huge drawdown from high but account balance is “only” down slightly on the year.
the last 6 weeks was the market trying it’s best to say FU and only come back when you have more money to lose.
the last 6 weeks and the hundred years before that
Bought another 50 MACK Nov 10’s and another 50 TWTR Nov 45’s
Added another 50 TWTR Nov 45’s @ .72
Another 20 MACK Nov 10’s @ .48
40 more MACK @ .48
$BABA tightening up and looking good for a move tomorrow or next week.
Bought Nov1 104C
bankers gonna pick up hard assets for pennies on the dollar, just like they did with houses in 2008
last buy — more NDLS Nov 22.5’s
Thinking about putting in a hedge here just for safety sake…lol seems unreal the rally
It may very well be time to bring back the GRPN earnings rally speech. In fact, it may be a regular earnings post until the 9 out of 10 rule is broken. Trent J, if you still have your YOLO, this is for you:
Great moments, are born from great opportunity. And that’s, what we have here tonight…that’s, what we’ve EARNED…HERE…TONIGHT! One earnings release. If we played ‘em 10 times we might lose 9…but not THIS earnings release…NOT…TONIGHT. Tonight..we buy with them. Tonight…we rip with them…and we stuff those shorts down, BECAUSE WE CAN! TONIGHT…WE are the greatest stock pickers in the world. We were born to be stock pickers…every one of us. And we were meant to play earnings tonight. THIS…is OUR time. Cramer’s time?…is done…Its over. I’m sick and tired of hearing about what a great stock picker Cramer is. Screw him, THIS is OUR time. Now go out there and RIP IT!!!
ha…0 for 2 on this speech.
You’ll get em’ next time.
recovered initial reaction and up as high as 25% on the day, nice.
Took some Nov 1 UVXY $27 calls.just to protect my longs
OA
Do you like HBI here, if it holds the MA
Finally a social media stock trading up after earnings
Out JDST for 125%. Thanks OA.
Unreal. An option style return in an ETF. Well done.