Which of the following statements best describes you?
- I am bullish, but feel I missed a lot of opportunity recently.
- I am bullish and am confident in how I played this move.
- I am bearish, but am tentative after a few misses recently.
- I am bearish and am confident in how I have played this move.
- None of the above. I am an asshole troll.
We’ve climbed the wall of worry in record speed. In fact, that 5 day rally in the SPY was 7%. That’s faster than the European Financial Crisis rally of August 2011. That stat helps to put things into perspective.
After an elevated move like this, both sides of the trade tend to get anxious. You saw this yesterday after the E-Bowl-a news hit the tape towards the close. It was a fast reaction because participants are anxious.
If sentiment is a guide we might see just a little risk aversion into next week. Whether or not we see buyers will be determined later. Not a bad spot to insure a few longs here going into the weekend, or to take a shot at the market pairing back some of these gains.
While you debate this over a few days away from the screen, debate coming out to Vegas with me. Learn more here: https://ibankcoin.com/investors-conference/
OA
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•I am bearish and am confident in how I have played this move.
I will continue to remain bearish unless the market makes new highs.
I’ve been selling put spreads on SPX and RUT with the elevated volatility lately but started getting short yesterday and today. I’ve got 35 days worth of time and am continuing to sell spreads on the weeklies to combat theta decay and neutralize a bit of negative delta. I believe we trade sideways into fed news and GDP next week.
I am short term bearish, long term bullish.
Bullish but waiting for better entries.
I was bullish but I am all cash going into the weekend with the exception of FB/SPY Nov puts (handful). This whole move up just feels weird. Econ data has been too optimistic IMO.
1) missed opportunity
2) pleased with navigating Oct, as I’ve already made back Sep losses despite playing smaller hands.
3) Cash at year high, waiting for primetime
4) down to a few longs and 1 short for next week.
I am bullish, but feel I missed a lot of opportunity recently
None of the above. I am an asshole troll.
Long BABA, YHOO, RAD in 401k and I only daytrade with my other money.
What are you day trading? Stocks?
Day trade stocks only. High movers usually, today: VXX,SODA,AMZN,P
I am bullish, but feel I missed a lot of opportunity recently.
OA， do you still remember the book’s name
the sentiment chart you always show us from? Thanks.
The Nature of Risk – Mamis.
Thanks
The school shooting is 3 blocks from my old house. My niece was in the cafeteria. Crazy… how shit gets real
Another school shooting?
Yeah – Marysville WA. I live in Seattle now but have a lot of friends/family who live up there.
If we had kids in school now, we’d home school them for sure.
I am bullish and am confident in how I played this move.
i feel like i completely screwed up last month, and now feel i missed good opportunities at quick recovery. I feel like i’m faced with a multi-month grind to work off my draw down.
Emotionally I am bearish, but my indicators turn bullish. I am playing small either way.
Do you trade emotionally?
When did your indicators turn bullish?
Gut feel from reading blogs and looking at charts is what i meant. A system I follow flashed buy signal 3 days ago.
Went all long Oct 2 just before things rolled into the ditch, then shorted into the hole. My, what a mess. Asshole troll here, shoulda just bot $NUGT and saved myself all the commissions.
I’m leaning bullish here but only have 50% committed to EDC / EWZ / TUP / PNRA / TWTR / HCLP. I’m trying to build out a larger holding of stocks than I’ve had in the past because its getting harder for me to get in and out of stuff quickly. I only trade equities. Looking to add into any weakness next month. My thinking is if the Fed exits and people buy it up then we should see a solid Q4/Q1.
we’ve had a banana trend lately , if everything is gone back to gay we should be bullish for a while
I’m not a troll – I’m a whiny female – and none of the above because I’m totally confused (kind of goes along with being female and blonde – sorry). I’m doing some day trading in equities mostly to keep me from totally messing up my portfolio.
If you don’t know what you are doing, day trading will mess up your portfolio even more.
Actually, the day trading is helping my portfolio – keeps me from overtrading. I make pretty good money with my day trades – I just do them for lunch money anyway.
Most definitely Asshole Troll.
+1
I’ve been struggling with committing to the long side lately but the more trader comments I’m seeing on other blogs and just a rough gauge of sentiment tells me a lot of people are skeptical and looking to short stuff. Maybe they’re right who knows.
I’ve been bullish since 2009 and have been a bit skittish over the past couple of months because of the enormity of the run since 2009. But I still get surprised at just how skeptical people have stayed. It’s really amazing to me and is why I still keep open the possibility of another leg higher.
I have kind of kept the late 1970’s / early 1980’s period in mind only because the late 1950s-early 70s period was so similar to the 1990’s – 2000’s period.
There was a fake breakout in 1981 that was reversed and lead to a 25% pullback into the massive bull market start of 1982. I noticed some parallels with the RUT starting last year and have kept it in mind. If it holds then we should see lower prices eventually (for RUT) after this rally stalls out.
Tough period nonetheless and am not fully committed to either side yet. I could make the case for either side right now.
Bearish but surprised at how strong this snapback rally has been. Worried the bulls are going to rip us to new highs ala 2013 but pretty confident in long term bearish thesis with QE ending, last POMO next monday.
Neither a bull or bear am I,
always trying to keep my powder dry,
yet I await for medical marijuana to pass,
so I can trade high and lose my ass.
Bullish and literally bottom ticked the small-cap downturn on October 14. Massive divergence between small & large caps made it a slam dunk.
There’s a lot of smart people in here so I wanna throw this out there—I’m looking for historical archives of the WSJ after a 5-year run like we’ve had in stocks, maybe mid ’80s, mid ’90s, or maybe early ’50s…I’m basically looking for that period’s John Hussman, before another massive run in stocks. Holler if you hear me.
#6.) Boolish and upset i missed the deadline to book Wynn room for vegas at ~50% off.
I’ll book you a room.
Neither bull or bear. I am confused as ****
I capitulated on Oct positions at basically the lows on 15 Oct and proceeded to try and short this bounce every few days. Been one step behind this entire time.
Now 150% long. Had some drawdown over the last few weeks but almost back to new equity highs. Approx 5% down now. My longer term trend following system has turned back on as well.
I think whatever move comes next will be a precursor for a reversal which will stick. Thankful for smaller position sizing and lots of cash this past 6 weeks, so I still have an account to trade. Feel like I’ve graduated from dumb money to almost-average money over my first month at AHWOA. I’ve missed some (retroactively obvious) opportunities both up and down, but I’ve also been better about staying disciplined and capitalizing on the trades I am making.
Bearish but confident … I promised not to post OEW info again but this weekend update could be helpful to some;
“… we noted the characteristics of the market had changed, and suggested Major wave B was underway. We also suggested the OEW 1973 pivot range would probably be the upside target. However, we expected the advance to be quite choppy. The rally started off choppy, SPX 1821-1898, but then took off to the upside after a pullback to SPX 1878. At first we thought the uptrend would be three Int. waves subdividing into three Minor waves. When the market cleared the 1956 pivot on Friday we updated the charts to display Int. A at SPX 1898, Int. B at 1878, and Int. C underway. When this last rally concludes, Major wave B should conclude, and a potentially nasty Major wave C downtrend should follow. Medium term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance a the 1973 and 2019 pivots.”
“We noted during the week that we have been observing seven wave patterns again on the way up during this uptrend. These patterns have been much larger than during the decline. The first rally, Int. A, unfolded: 1869-1835-1868-1852-1876-1857-1898. Then after an Int. wave B pullback to 1878, Int. C has unfolded as follows: 1892-1882-1949-1927-1962-1946-1965+. Two sets of seven wave patterns, with the second set yet to complete. Our upside target has been the OEW 1973 pivot range, so we expect this last rally to top within the 1966-1980 range. Of note, Int. wave B of Major wave A ended at SPX 1978. Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Short term momentum continues to form a negative divergence as the market has worked its way higher. The first 10 point reversal off of any high could suggest the top has been achieved.”
Make note of the last sentence as a timing aid to raise cash, go short or add puts/hedges.
Also sounds like Tony’s reference to Interior WaveB of Major WaveA which ended at SPX 1978 is probably what he’s expecting for a final top here.
OA, you know what stock looks great on all timeframes? MEET. I’m going to grab some shares Monday probably. Looking for a clean double from here.
I’m neither bullish nor bearish, but I am confident. I added to my Apple long twice during the correction, a risky move prior to earnings, and those purchases look pretty good now. I bought XONE in the 18-range and will hold through earnings. I started positions in UCO, FCG and LULU.
I have noticed how HYD performs well on bearish days and pays a small divvy so I have that and REM in my investment port along with Apple, but not much else. That was an awesome correction and there were good buying opportunities but I also made some money shorting thanks to BlueStar CI’s advice. I am waiting to hear from him again as I think he has a good sense of all things bearish. Enjoy reading you as well OA though I haven’t traded options in a few years.
Confidence in this environment is a commodity. Great work.
FWIW, the beloved BABA put in a lower high last week and today’s s morning strength should be sold into. Delay of Hong Kong Connect has marked a top in the Shanghai Comp and the burritos identified as short candidates are ripe for the selling. Add YHOO to that list of shorts…
here’s your ideal short entry on YHOO — above 44.01 Sept High….
anywhere above last week’s 98 high in BABA is where stock should be unloaded — thesis is stock will not exceed 99.25 high from day of IPO.
What is that based on?
all the buy recommendations are out + reversal / top in Shanghai Comp. Hot money opting for US shares rather than Burritos. Not suggesting short BIDU — there are plenty of ideas like YOKU, TEDU, etc that will be probing 52 week lows in short order
No, why BABA?
I know most of your accts have been totally destroyed twice this year and you’re ready to throw in the towel.
Let me try to help you back slowly ( none of these stupid % plays )
Nice and easy and we’ll be fine .
Buy to open 5 $GNW Nov 7 14s
Buy to open 3 $LNG Nov 7 75s
Buy to open 2 QIHU Nov 7 70s
Check back @ 1:00 and 3:00 for updates .
Margined up / All In — MACK
meant to say not suggesting short BABA however at best shares are range bound and 99.25 high from IPO will cap price appreciation. YHOO riding on BABA’s coattails and should be sold down to mid 30’s
OA – what’s your take on IBM flagging oversold for 5 days, now – but absolutely not budging from that volume shelf..? http://i.imgur.com/fdSK8ov.jpg
I like this trade because you have zones above and below. I’d think rally to retest here, IMO.
ok. Thanks OA.