Our map for the week is looking ok thus far. 1090 was the action point.
If you bet against some stocks, or the market itself, you’ve got some good traction for lower prices early next week. Whether or not we get a buyer there is yet to be seen.
Once we see a little downside, I’ll post a few favorite longs to engage the market from both sides – short term time frames.
After Hours with Option Addict members, I have uploaded a video of my market opinion for the day. I need to head out to help a family member in need and won’t be there to interact this afternoon. The video goes over revised strategy and ideas for the next 2-4 days.
OA
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Problem is most missed the beginning of the year end move and it is wishful thinking IMHO to go the hopium route that will exonerate their miss . Looking forward to an explosive close and a great market next week .
Spot on with the prediction, jeff
Thanks for the video. Hope things go well with your family mrmber.
Stranded with a flat. I happen to be closest.
Good man!
Waiting for AAPL to break one way or the other so I can close out my last trade. Very quiet for an opex Friday considering the week we have had.
Closed out for a small loss – will go at it again next week. Have a great weekend all!
What is the level on the Russell we are looking to hold? 1060?
Tempted to buy TZA or VXX here. I think more people get Ebola over the weekend and shit is going to hit the fan.
i ended up closing out my TZA right before the close. Felt the ‘gap risk’ pain this morning that OA mentioned on the session.
I ended up not picking up anything and just staying 20% cash. I still feel bullish overall so feel uncomfortable going short even if it is a hedge.
bought next week puts in SLV and picked up DUST. Playing for the flush that OA’s been calling for…looks ready.
I bought some Oct 5 AAPL 92 puts into the close. Playing for the APPL fade with an extra week for the markets to digest the move
I love the AAPL short trade – just not sure chart is ready to roll over just yet. Either they a) blow the number and gap down like NFLX or b) open around 101/102 and get sold hard. Good luck.
The puts were cheap and this is a small position, but to me, the risk/reward is skewed in the puts favor. it is a small position, so I am fine if it goes to 0.
Looking forward to getting all of those Oct positions with a $0.03 or $0.05 value (and $0.00 bid) off my account page. New beginnings start on Monday. Enjoy your weekend everyone!
No kidding. Oct cycle made me look like and feel like an idiot. 25 some positions up in smoke. Makes me question this whole process.
Looking for a retest of the lows next week.
looking for an island, ebola free zone or a bubble. This one is popped, am short for the weekend spread. It doesn’t matter what you think, Guinean EBOV is here, a mutated Zaire lineage, why not again? This viral spread is no different then the boiling a frog metaphor, as infections gradually creep to the boiling point, it is known that commoners will not panic until it is too late, then its over, markets et all. Welcome to the final solution.
-and this:) “If there is one thing the history of evolution has taught us it’s that life will not be contained. Life breaks free, it expands to new territories and crashes through barriers, painfully, maybe even dangerously, but, uh… well, there it is.” /rant off
Were u around for SARS? H1n1? I was. This exactly the type of thing being said. This is nonesense. Start buying stocks now and give them to your grandchildren. If the end is now then go all cash and break windows for food. This is not that time.
I have a t-shirt that says “UVXY 4EVA” and will be putting it on indefinitely at some point in the next two weeks.
I was tempted to short IWM but I sat on my hands. May be a mistake but i am eyeing AMZN for targeted action.
OA – do you have JDST as a long term hold?
I have it. Just trying to trade around my gold bear call.
JDST is exploding up come monday, look at that chart! Sunday futures are going to be interesting to say the least.
NEVER FORGET:
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/2014/10/09/i-will-bet-your-ovaries-that-the-market-trades-higher-from-here/
Gimme those fucking ovaries, NOW
Short IWM QQQ BIDU. Thanks Jeff.
Jeff – I know you dismissed my parallel between the Russell 2000 now and the S&P 500 back in 1981 but take another look at the similarities of these charts man:
This is from the 1979 to 1981 period:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC+Interactive#{%22range%22%3A{%22start%22%3A%221979-09-21T19%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%2C%22end%22%3A%221981-09-30T19%3A00%3A00.000Z%22}%2C%22lineType%22%3A%22ohlc%22%2C%22indicators%22%3A{%22sma%22%3A[{%22id%22%3A%22sma50%22%2C%22name%22%3A%22sma%22%2C%22params%22%3A[50]%2C%22lineType%22%3A%22line%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22%2338761d%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1}%2C{%22id%22%3A%22sma200%22%2C%22name%22%3A%22sma%22%2C%22params%22%3A[200]%2C%22lineType%22%3A%22line%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22%2338761d%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1}]}%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22}
We’re basically right now at Sept 11, 1981. Obviously nothing is perfect in terms of parallels but noticing this pattern has really boosted my returns this year.
It’s a long url so just copy and paste it. The similarities are pretty incredible. Ultimately a sideways pattern for 10 months or so lead to a break down. Prices ultimately lead lower for the next 10 months until the great 1980s-90s bull market began about 15% or so lower. I’m not expecting anything horrible here, but I do think it will be hard from the long side for another 6 to 12 months.
I’ll be playing TZA from around 1095 in the RUT, hoping for a move down below 1000. That would lead to about a 25% rise in TZA. After that I’m thinking we get a sizable rally to 1,110 or 1,120
That is an interesting perspective, great find. However, I think we can’t discredit the Russell because it still printed a new high in July. The S&P during that time period made the new high then continued to make lower highs. IMO, I think the major indices are carving out an inverse H&S, with the small caps leading. FWIW, interesting record inflows in small caps last week:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102097833
No…I laughed at how quickly you dismissed it. The very next day you threw it out the window.
ha ok. i’ve had it in my mind the whole year. you can trade the bounces but still have a bigger picture in mind. like not selling FSLR at $70 despite an obvious technical top and negative divergences being in place, thinking that the bigger picture is solar will be in play for years. know what i mean?
No, not sure what you mean. No idea how FSLR relates to this.
Creepy numerology: Jeff just wrote his 666 blog post.
Didn’t see that until you pointed it out… Indeud!
even more creepy his suggestion to own IBM for safety…yikes
Safe meaning low beta. Wasn’t an earnings prediction. Dumb fuck.
You have felt fslr is going higher longer term despite short term hiccups. I have felt the market has downside despite short term relief rallies. We can play both sides.
Clear enough?
It has been going higher since I bought it. I’ve been in this trade forever. Why even bring this up when you were originally trying to convince me of a similar market environment two decades ago that you dismissed fairly quickly?
Jesus Christ I never dismissed it fairly quickly just like you haven’t dismissed fslr quickly. I said we would get one last rally that I would like to participate in but I thought the market was heading lower. You can trade both sides no?
The fucking point isn’t trading both sides. I’m wondering why you went after a holding of mine for no apparent reason.
Market set to chop nuts off this morning already
Glad I finally set up a couple hedges
Gotta cover my AAPL puts here way too many people bragging about how they crushed it this quarter. Maybe take a shot at Pandora; looks vulnerable
That actually makes me somewhat suspicious – to me that means there is limited upside and much greater downside for the earnings as expectations will be too high. Again, playing earnings is a gamble for this, but I still like my puts – may be worthless come tomorrow morning, but that is the risk….
I shorted AAPL @ 99.12
Oil weak market up. Last week when this happened the market reversed hard. Interesting to watch if it happens again.
out of TWTR…into UVXY
OA
CAR looking for a rebound?
Don’t have a strong opinion on that one right here.
I’d short the cruise lines though in relation to travel stocks.
OA
How about UAL. Wait for some pop and then short?
Depends on the news here.