What I typically aim to do when initiating risk in a trade is to ask myself prior to entry where I am wrong on this trade.
At times we might overlook a low risk entry point for fear of missing out on a move. For example, the fact that FSLR was sitting a top its yearly highs all week had me a little anxious that if it went without me, I wouldn’t be able to enjoy the luxury of an option trade to run with my stock position. Looking at today’s beatdown, I now regret initiating the position as high as I did, even despite the fact that I still have a pretty strong reason to believe that it will/could work.
Even though I am technically wrong because I now have an unrealized loss, I still feel I am right in this trade. It’s okay to debate this line of thinking, because most of you evaluate unrealized gains/losses with a sense of finality that I do not. I trade for tomorrow, where most people I observe only trade for today.
As it pertains to being wrong in this trade, I think it is a move under $65-66. What say you?
Trading for today… Trading for tomorrow. I believe I will live longer trading for tomorrow. 🙂
Are you using Oct options for FSLR?
I have October, yes.
Still holding your TF? Thoughts on that one?
The futures contract? From Friday?
Yes, the one from Friday afternoon.
Shit no. I only day trade futures. Can’t think of any reason one would hold through a weekend.
Good place to average down on Oct 80s?
Tell me about your size first (no homo).
2% of portfolio size
average cost $0.78 for FSLR Oct $80
Only if you are comfortable with the risks. Always hard to dollar cost average an instrument that can go to zero.
What kind of bull$hit answer is that? Sounds like typical registered rep CYA garbage.
What’s the smart play here? Double down, bail out, or let it ride?
My line in the sand was a bit lower, 63-64ish but at this point wouldnt make a huge difference in premium salvaged. More a question to add or not tbh, or perhaps use the opportunity to buy a closer strike. Currently hold Oct 80s
holding 50% fib rtrace. some short covering on the 5min…hope it holds above 50dsma…top half of candle
yeah, I think $60 is short term resistance, but some signs of holding at $65, I have some jan calls so I have a little time. but if we lose $60 I may bail.
Support?
yeah sorry support, not resistance.
I think one more push higher on market. But bail quickly. IMO you guys are flying to close to the sun. As a side note my favorite bar in Cambridge MA was Dadealus.
That will put us at day zero for QE, yes?
The market has always anticipated QE ending by a few weeks to months. So I just don’t know.
Push to new highs Blue, or just a quick bounce from OS levels?
thnx
Hard to say. This is a very dangerous time. If we bounce and fail to go to new highs then look out below. The structure will be compromised and selling will ensue rapidly.
I say $VMW!
The market is starting to show it’s hand.
Stick a fork in it? BABA top?
who cares about Fizzler when you have Veemware…
any high flyer still has fuel?
Buy low, sell high. Worked in the exact same template last week.
I think we need a good shake out and get this top business out of the way. The long term charts in the SPY and QQQ look good but we need some selling to get the weak hands out.
Does the action in solars today or if it continues downward in the days to come affect your thinking about buying and holding the VSLR IPO?
No. You?
No.
I think if it holds the 50 SMA (which is at 67.66 FSLR would go back to about 70. So far, it looks like the 50 has held, but, then again, all my screens are red today so who knows.
YGE holding the line
any reason you seem to be choosing to ignore the overall market breadth divergence?
Me? I’m not ignoring anything.
I think you misused the term divergence too, fwiw.
My timing was off last week so I passed on FSLR. Decided to go in today buying a bit more time with Nov’s. Yieldco decision expected on or before ER, should get the next leg up going.
$ARWR…
OA, with CORN getting literally planted in the bottom of my screen, I had to take a gander at REX. Does it look to you like it’s down at a longer term trendline, or does it look like absolute death?
No.
Russell 1160 still your “line in the sand?”