Here’s a scenario for you tomorrow, since we’re tetering on the edge of a cliff here.
A little divergence went off in the market about 30 minutes ago. SPX, NASDAQ, and DOW go to new lows on the day. Russell does not. We’re watching this chart like a hawk, and are sitting on the last level of support before we head to the lows of the year.
If we open lower tomorrow, this ought to put markets into oversold territory (NYMO -60 right now). If we do open lower, but the Russell is firm, I am a buyer. Like the early August lows, the Russell firmed up, while the rest of the market drifted a little lower.
If these conditions exist, look for me to initiate a few new longs.
OA
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VXN can be a friend to you.
There is a disturbance in the force. I sense immense hedge fund pain and meetings tonight and tomorrow about taking gross down. Stay frosty. The indices are not telling the story today. But you may be right.
That’s funny …. in a rather twisted way
XME the force got castrated.
XME was 3.5 standard deviation move. Disaster.
i mentioned it a couple blog posts ago…until 1115 it broked on the /TF this is a big wedge in the making. Low of day…1120.
is broken*
love the avatar, matt. I had the penny shoes in 5th grade.
thanks, but it’s not the shoes, it’s my portfolio’s value now.
I keep going back to what hurts the most as this seems to be the main market driver lately (and keeps poking me in the (f)eye)
yeh, but you think most people are short right now? I feel like most people are long since every dip has been bought in relative short order. So what would hurt the most is a flush down.
I still don’t think all the bears are flushed and they keep pointing to all the signals that the market is going down. I still think choppy weeks are going to be the norm for the intermediate timeframe until we break higher or lower. There are definitely still bulls out there, so I am looking at how stocks are trading within ranges (GOOGL, AMZN BIIB) and seeing what short term opportunities I can squeeze from these – went with weekly AMZN 330 calls at the close
Under-positioned is where I think the market is.
The market is losing a few perma-bulls due to hedge funds getting tommy gunned by the pension plans. Not sure what time frame this impacts, hopefully well after this critical point.
lol @ last stand.
my october paper was all chopped 60-80% in 1 day. At least the positions can’t go lower than $0.
Seems like with options it can take days or weeks to build a big up position, and one day for them all o go to shit. Frustrating as hell.
On Friday morning I saw the UVXY dip to levels we haven’t seen in awhile, right before the BABA ipo. Everyone was getting comfortable. Ever since then the market has been straight down.
Really don’t want to see the Russell trade back down to 1080 for the 3rd time. You play with fire too many times and you get burned. Russell needs to hold the line here or a few points lower.
most guys I have talked to have had the wrong trades on throughout the year, including some carrying large cash positions. I still think we head higher after this vol period.
OA what’s the game plan if the Rut doesn’t lead but all indices move up?
If you take a bearish stance on that scenario, wait to sell the next rally.
#crossroads
Bought TSLA call
#timestamp
the time has been stamped. but the details are still hazy.
ul ul ultra timestamp. 8% out of the money same week options is how I ball
http://i.imgur.com/DNmNLD3.png
it was a free trade
KNDI?
$FSLR looking Strong.
THERE IS ZERO DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT THIS TRADE WORKS.
Back up the truck!
OA, what do you think of $FLY
Looks like it wants to go down.
You guys expect YELP to retest $100?
$FEYE Shock and Awe on horizon.
$RUT starting to lead.
OA, With the divergence between RUT (and NDX) and other indices apparently playing out as you had hoped, at what point would you consider backing up (no homo) the truck?
Last August it took a week to put in the low. Might do the same here. When I see the signs, you’ll be the next to know.
Sorry for the jinx you guys
I don’t think it was just you…lots of people hoping for a change
Bought 2nd lot of TNA – 68.60
Protect ya neck, tho.
I might be selling 2 lots of TNA here shortly 😀
weak bounce so far.
Kicking myself for not buying BIIB yesterday markets don’t look too sure here, but I still like AMZN
Really liking AMZN as long as it stays above 323
OA- whts your view here on FEYE. Above average volume for the past several weeks and the chart resembles the “denial” sentiment. Let me know baus!
I like it to $40.
to be clear “above average buy volume”
This market is supposed to be “risk off” and I’m just staring at MBLY and GPRO, ripping heads off to the upside.
Bought some TNA at 68.13 for a quick trade today
Sold all my GPRO yesterday. Ugh.
OA, you think YELP will retest $100 this year?
Zero clue…why do you ask that?
if you ask one more time. I suspect OA will appear before you, grant you the answer to your YELP query, and POOF! … disappear into thin air.
lol
Banned !!
haha, I have a large position. seems to be following the market sentiment chart.
YELP TO A HUNDRED!
OA, Should I have the Tenderloin Burger or Pulled Pork for lunch. TIA
Today is a tenderloin kind of day. Enjoy. Please report back with how your decision held up.
I’m having valium for lunch today
LOL
$CRTO
FINNIN’ to $40 Rip. Just Reloaded and let’s do this…
Definitely cliff hanging day. I’m still sitting in cash and waiting. Tough to do given how conditioned we have been to buying dips.
AMZN seems to be just hanging around on support.
AMZN is trading in a range from 320 – 340 – looks like it is coiling up again for a pop again – I like it as long as it holds 323
RUT/IWM flipped from relative strength to relative weakness
I guess the bounce is over. Fellas, if that was the bounce we are in trouble.
and down we go now. this sux
Gotta draw shorts into the hole before you bounce. That’s the deal.
i like the sound of that.
Looking at a short term CMG put as hard downside protection.. Low IV and big volume pocket to the downside. Is this a sensible protection play OA?
If the IWM is gonna bounce this is the spot. I think we are going to get a fast move either way before the end of the day.
i think the springs are broken or they are waiting for 111
Is the bounce in DDD a reversal or a head fake?
here comes the volume, big area here.
$FEYE and FSLR holding up beautifully so far.
Very different pulse here buddy.
Bloop Bloop
its crazy. every other blogger on IBC seems to be calling for a correction except for OA. They are all pu$$ies.
Apparently, I am the one with issues here.
Let’s give thanks for their fear, that is what makes a market…. As for me I pay good money to OA for great market incite so I am going to take it- adding to FEYE, FSLR and LULU, Z will be next…..
Looks like I will be sitting on my hands today….I logged out of my trading account so I wouldn’t be tempted to do anything I hadn’t thoroughly researched – that is how I needlessly lost money back in July
I just chickened out and went flat my $FEYE. 100% cash.
No shame in protecting assets
Over allocating (way) will make us do stupid things like not letting things develope. One second you think you fucked yourself, the next you were “right”. Shame does indeud fall upon my house for this play.
ALAS, I still own $FEYE OCT calls in firecracker account.
hmm….this is not good. RUT/IWM gettting dragged down now
GOGO is the place to be – still my largest position. Up 2.78% today. It will move higher if the market bounces. If it falls, I’m not concerned either. There is still a lot of opportunity in that name.
So what exactly drives the markets in these situations where there is a trading range and no speed? Does it take a large bank/investor/hedge fund/ to push the market one way or the other? I understand that news will push many market participants in a direction, but we seem to be meandering right now
It means defense is being applied.
If the market stands firm here I love the look of TWTR.
Totally agree.
Surely the MOSC hit that -80 today….?
Bought TWTR Oct 3rd calls
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