I’ve been plotting this post since hitting submit on my short write up of this idea over a week ago. Not a moment has passed where I haven’t been asked…
“OA, you still like LULU?”
“Is LULU broken?”
“Still like LULU?”
“Would you buy LULU here?”
“OA, you still like LULU?”
“Are you concerned about LULU?”
With that said, let’s chat about LULU. Retail stocks have been mostly bludgeoned to death in the last several months. LULU is a heavily shorted name that has grossly underperformed the market in the last year, but has recently had buyers step in, slowing its death spiral. Take a look at the structure in this stock above $40.
Having already placed my bet, caught a lift, sat through a low volume decline, I find myself patiently awaiting that initiative move that sends this stock up to $45. Having already seen people round trip this thing several times over, buying into the strength and taking losses into small declines, I’d propose a different management approach to this trade.
Let the trade work while the stock is within balance here. Should it sell off and trade below $38, BREAKING this beautiful balance of price and volume, it is a sell. However, if it hangs here, patiently wait for the trade to work, and for buyers to control this issue.
When I offered this idea, I chose the word “investment” carefully. Meaning something that won’t resolve within everyone’s expected time frame of IMMEDIATELY.
With any luck, the move starts this week. That is all.
OA
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I imagine OA has nightmares with words like “SUNE”, “FSLR”, and “ZU” running through his head.
Angi was the best, we rode it from mid 12’s to 18-19, and everyday was Angi this and Angi that…Angi Angi Angi. 50% gain in the stock and it seemed all the longs were pissed .
19.80 when my price target was 20. Craziest thing I’ve seen in terms of sentiment.
in hindsight it was the warning. 50% move in the common yielding a 270% gain in the front month option. Nice, but didn’t exactly jive…hence why people were pissed.
Definitely something to remember for next time.
OA – are we there yet? (said from the back seat)
Love it!
I’m boolish on LULU and have been for a long time at these levels. I can be a friend to you OA… and promise never to ask “Do you still like it? What about now? Still?”
HAHAHA
Lulu is gonna go full Zulu.
Look at SODA, which I bought because it looked like LULU and has a high short interest. When that downtrend snaps, it’s going to move fast.
Love me some SODA
if youve been following this TRUE, same buyer, same time today..if you can get a goofy opening balance print (extra raul) in the 16s, youre good to go. theres some interesting buying behind this one
Yoga pants for EVERYONE!
Love this post…well done. I’d love to get LULU’d
love the emphasis with the capitalized words, but you know there will still be someone out there to ask if its ‘broken’…even though its been spelled out very clearly haha
Broken is my favorite technical term now.
Broken is the new cautiously optimistic
Seems when things OA likes goes down we should be happy to accumulate at better prices rather than question whether the move happens
Sometimes “down” is just normal fluctuation.
that fucking whore ANGI tying up my trade $$..not sure if I should wait for a rebound or cut my losses and move..fucked up by not setting a stop on the bitch now Im underwater
I only sold my latest LULU calls because they were 40.50 for this Friday so just took profits. May get back in… retail is bouncing today for sure.
Long LULU from 38.60! Ready for this train to leave the station OA, thanks Bud.
My body is ready
OA, still excited about BAC for September?
About as excited as one can be in BAC.
Slow moving POS. I’m in it from about $15.20, but theta has eaten all my monies.
prepared to get NUGTed!
OA, did you get those SINA Sept calls?
This morning…yes.
Bought first week Sept 41s last Thursday at the close, loved the low vol pullback there.
I’m now watching my positions less to avoid emotional trading, and overtrading in general. Using alerts and pre-made limit and stop orders to automate the process.
Had to change from putting in limit orders once a week to now setting them up when the alert hits.
nice LULUs
Ha, thanks. Had trouble focusing on which one I should put into a pic. By the way, google by name of wearer, not yoga pants in general. There are some really “to-don’ts” in the yoga pants game.
nice tip… I googled nina agdal yoga, but felt the results were a little too racy for work
I have first week $40’s. got in last thurs mid day.
twinkies, how the hell have you been? Been awhile.
yeah… i’ve been less active over the past few months. Got the little rugrat to take care of (can’t believe he’s 5 months old already), which leaves less time for scouting out trades. I’m slowly climbing back into it.
but to answer your question. i’m doing well. how bout yourself.
Just great. Was off the grid for for a few weeks fishing and cabin hunting.
i was up at the BWCA for about 5 days fishing and camping. like you said… off the grid. it was awesome. didn’t catch anything that massive, but got some decent “eaters”. 5 pound northern, 4 pound walleye.
OA, What expiry do you recommend to initialize a new position in LULU? Thanks
I bought some more on Friday during the despair. I am prepared for this to go to zero that is why I don’t even watch it all that much. Easier to hold when you don’t sweat every tick. I am curious what days in Sept do you own. I am long 9/5 40 calls.
I have monthly September calls (19th)
OA- I thought you like to use volume pocket analysis on longer time frames (eg: monthly charts going back 10yrs). Your chart above seems to be on a smaller time frame for lulu. Please advice.
5 year profile. This is what I always use.
5yr profile on a daily chart? or monthly, weekly etc? I find this type of analysis useful so just trying to learn
OA-you holding WUBA through earnings?
I have no WUBA
i trade in WUBA for LULU.
also in PCLN
BITA hasn’t seen this much selling since 7/8. Today’s action, longs got spooked, then shorts got rattled, then longs getting bled. Will yesterday’s low be defended, if not, look out below.
I aint feelin none of dis shit
OA – Are you still in BORN? I can’t remember if you initiated it yesterday or earlier this week
Yes.
Anyone know a good trading platform or website where you can get price by volume profiles? Thanks.
http://www.stockcharts.com
Also freestockcharts.com if you want to be specific to a 5 year chart.
Thanks guys, much appreciated.
OA- I pulled the 5yr daily chart and the volume profile is totally different from what you have illustrated. I am using stockcharts. Should i use the 5yr profile on the monthly chart?
I’m on daily bars. You are probably on weekly.
Yes?
Jeff- what are your top 5 nike shoes?
NKE looks pretty solid longer term
Wait…i need to make sure i fully understand your question. Shoes i own?
i would say of all-time, but if that were the case you probably own them. Top 5 that you own.
OA , have you ever seen a better setup than AMZN 337.5 for fri ????
Short HSY.
I like scty for Friday.
Thank you OA , I shorted HSY with my kid’s trust/ tuition money . My broker called this a solid idea . I’m o.k. for two weeks until the tuition is due .
Let’s find the next yolo
Bought the LULU Sept1 43 Calls for .21 Expire in 16 days. Looked like one of the better deals on the board.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101934485
Euphoria…
Bot Sept SINA $51’s
damn… i knew i shoulda waited. today is a much better entry for SINA.
hell, i’ll add a few.
LULU above $41.07 and technically it is gone on its way to $45 in a heartbeat.
Watch MLNX for a dip to enter. Bot Sep 43 yesterday
likewise, i traded in most my china for more LULU, couple other similar setups. making a rotational call, probably a touch early. did keep this bloody CCIH tho
AHWOA Crowd – If you havent been tuning in to hear Raul teach Market Profile – you are missing the boat! Super informative, easy to grasp, and easy to put into practice. Plus you can read his daily insight and actually follow what the hell he is talking about.
+1
long XXII SEPT
long ERF SEPT
long CYOU OCT
long EVRY shares
long DIA Sept1 puts
EVRY…nice
YELP for the win…LULU for the big ass win
Sold GOOGL and YELP yolos, replaced them with PCLN. Still have TWTR yolo. Any other yolos you guys are excited about? I might add SCTY tomorrow per discussions in the chat today.
Are you the only TWTR bull around here? I just noticed the chart. Price action looks good, but it’s in a comfortable place on the volume profile, with lots of bag holders from $50-$75. Seems like it would be worth waiting a week.
Thoughts?
I’m not the only one. I think you get a fast move once it gets going. Maybe it does take another week, maybe not.
I’ve got TWTR calls and am looking for 50 to 54.
Sold SPLK today for a small win. Today looked bad in that stock. Broke the most recent up trend and it closed on the lod.
Retest of the breakout. This is typical in breakout situations.
OA- Thanks for keeping me in JAZZ options. Do you think it still has more room to run?
September?
yes, Sept
I’m finally starting to look through the stock screener properly… CMI looks beast.
On further inspection, looks good for a lot of the petroleum / natty gassers. OXY looks ready to rip 10% pretty soon too. I feel dumb for being too lazy to do this before (I’d just pull up individual charts.)
Bruce Keller- what process do you follow? Do you use Finviz. I struggle with coming up with a good screening technique
Last night on Fast Money 3 out of 4 traders said they would be putting a short trade on the indexes. I knew the futures would be up this morning!
Is there a good trader on that show? If you want conventional wisdom that’s your go to place. I can’t believe some of those guys manage money.
Bruce, you signed up for the PPT tool? You highly reccomend it?
The screener is through Finviz 🙂
CAMT ripping this morning.
Bought some DNOW this morning. Good looking chart.
PCLN 1275 for tomorrow. 3.20ish
accepting lower price, out
HRL is one of my main investments. Today is a good day 🙂
weekly options aren’t expiring on Thursday this week are they? Trading still open tmorrow right? this am my brokerage had typical warning message that “options expiring today”. But now it doesn’t happen… so they probably just glitched
I have $CYOU Oct 24s and I just know this stupid stock is going to burn me yet again in the end. Fell for it 2x already…
Developing
objectively, looks like you can hold till 23.75ish (23.50 with a quick rejection)…and with Oct’s you should have plenty of time for it to decide if its going to run higher or probe lower.
Thanks for the thoughts, appreciate it!
OA, thoughts on whether we are closer to a Lampert Squeeze ? Noticed in the past SHLD has taken off when news is horrid, like today.
Very close. SHLD is the perfect “4” stock.
$HSY Sept 90 Puts are a great deal. Baut it. TY OA
$N is perking up.
Someone please make $P explode to the upside. Thanks in advance.
R Kelly?
A baby getting its diaper changed?
Good lord CMG was shitting on me this morning, now it is I who am doing the shitting.
Hey OA, any thoughts on nflx? Thanks
I think my long entry at $420 was decent.
OA – WFM chart not as pretty, but to me looks loosely similar, thoughts?
YOLO on AMAT
Hey OA, what do you think of nflx here? Thx
What do you think of NFLX SMDM?
wow, any of the JRJC traders hold through all of this? amazing.
No but it makes me look pretty silly for selling out of impatience before it started the move.
Bruce Keller- what process do you follow? Do you use Finviz. I struggle with coming up with a good screening technique
I kind of do what OA does, just screen for liquid stocks of say >750k volume and personally I look for >70 price, then it’s simply a matter of looking for what’s in a trend or has been basing for a while and filtering those out. I’m still learning, CMI was probably too late.
i follow the same process. But most of the time i feel that i find charts too late
Anyone need some Danny McBride?
http://youtu.be/bqzUI1ihfpk
Ragin had the trigger at $40.25. Hoping shorts wake up Monday to find that their LULU trade was broken.