Behold, here is my Weekly Watchlist. Trade it well:
ANGI, GMCR, MS, KBH, Z, SRPT, BITA, VIPS, QIHU, MU, ZHNE.
We’ll be spending some time on After Hours with Option Addict putting together an “Under $10” equity list for the upcoming week.
See you in the morning,
OA
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In the spirit of “better exits for 2014”, I offer the following data on current trades.
Below find my 5 most profitable (paper plan) OA trades.
I’ve attached my entries, because they may differ from the original OA plan (both higher and lower).
Targets are original OA trade plan, stretch goals are my own extrapolation of what is possible.
All returns assume a target hit of 01/10/2014 – obviously if it happens earlier, returns are better.
I’m posting this in the spirit of “we’re leaving too much on the table” in terms of profit on hard won stock picks and returns.
Hopefully you can use it as a reference as you contemplate a “sell order”.
It always amazes me how well we do in buying into the targets for a buy order, but completely ignore this data when exiting a trade.
All prices current as of 01/05/2013
ANGI
Current: 13.07
Option: Jan 15’s
Entry: 0.30
Target: 17.00
Stretch Target: 19
RAT = Return @ Target
RAS = Return @ stretch
RAT: 583.33% RAS: 903.33%
CRM
Current: 55.12
Option: Jan 55’s
Entry: 0.71
Target: 60.00
Stretch Target: 62
RAT: 274.07% RAS: 418.52%
CRM
Current: 55.12
Option: Jan 57.50’s
Entry: 0.43
Target: 60.00
Stretch Target: 62
RAT: 546.51%% RAS: 962.79%
NOTE: This is NOT an OA Trade !!!
CZR
Current: 22.71
Option: Jan 22.50’s
Entry: 0.50
Target: 25.00
Stretch Target: 26.00
RAT: 412.00% RAS: 604.00%
SSYS
Current: 136.45
Option: Jan 140’s
Entry: 2.15
Target: 150
Stretch Target: 155
RAT: 402.33% RAS: 611.63%
YY
Current: 58.02
Option: Jan 55’s
Entry: 0.95
Target: 58.00
Stretch Target: 60.00
RAT: 321.05% RAS: 484.21%
I hope this is helpful in your trade planning.
Good stuff here, thanks. I’d be happy if ANGI only makes it to 16
Me Too !
Love the RAT and RAS. I typically only project one target price. I ;like the idea of the two targets.
Note: NO inference or likelihood is implied with the above numbers – these are simply the statistical returns IF a trade hits its’ target or stretch goals.
YOU and only YOU are responsible for determining IF and WHEN you would like to enter the trade – the sole liability for whether the stock goes up, down, or sideways is entirely YOURS.
Thanks alot!
lanforce, what’s your exit point or trigger if some of the prices drop before 1/10?
The stock takes out lower lows or lower highs. Trading in range is expected which will inevitably involve “dips”.
See: “Broken Trades”
http://vimeo.com/52714700
Thanks for your insight lanforce.. nicely put together.
…as mentioned new to this. I went over some of the videos Jeff posted on breakouts – the technical stuff such as candles,hanging man, support line etc. It would be interesting for newbies to go over some of the upcoming trades and examine the type of breakout trigger (candles, testing the support line …) the decision was based on to get into the trade.
Thank You Goldman Sachs!! Doushe nuggets
OA have you already covered determining target price over time? If not can you do so in one of your sessions?
So much for my Jan FSLR calls…GS…FTL
Thank you, GS. Monday morning flame thrower to my book heavy with FSLR calls. Time to start all over again.
To be honest guys; I may add to my position if I see it hold $55 today. I don’t think this trade is broken yet. Need to see how it moves when the market opens. FSLR was one of my largests positions also
word of the day “solar” and we be lookin’ prime
stick with HAL
Would love to believe that, Danny. But I think GS has killed any chance of 60 over the next 10 trading days. We shall see
I’m going to hold my position as I entered in the $54’s last week so my profit got erased. S/A just did an article on whyFSLR is the best solar play for 2014. Hopefully it can hold $55.
For the no stress play, just go with the common and sit on it for the year – you know it’s going for the hun-roll.
Former SCTY position now over 65 pre market not making me feel any better
SCTY 65 calls were crazy idea I see…payday
On the bright side, a “sell” from Goldman means that FSLR mgmt will not be diluting the stock (or has told Goldman that they will not be using them if they do:)
FSLR was selling for a 12 PE before Goldman’s “sell”. Do you think that the market knew this stuff already? The only thing new is Goldman’s public assessment of how the market will value the stock.
Public assessments from Goldman should be viewed as potentially having agendas other than your well being.
Good luck if you are holding $55 calls. I’m sitting on $57.50 and $60 calls. Methinks they are now on the fast track to zero.
Before you sell this option at the open, just look to see what happened to GS calls when they “downgrade to sell” throughout 2013.
MSFT on Apr 11, 2013
FMC on July 8, 2013
HPQ on Apr 2, 2013
LLY on Nov 11, 2013
C on Dec 4, 2013
FST on Oct 22, 2013
SVU on Nov 18, 2013
AMD on May 16, 2013
I am not saying buy or sell this. I’ve got em too, but GS doesn’t care about me one iota.
And BOOM just like that my Pandora calls make up for the FSLR BS
Good work. I don’t know what I thinking getting out of that trade. That thing looked great to $29, saw morning weakness on Friday and freaked out. Keep it going!
punt SCTY or hold?
for God’s sake, hold, man. Hold.
you must mean FSLR? SCTY kickin balls
break to new highs is a buy signal to some. hold
Will keep my finger off the trigger til later this week. Equities you cited all higher in days or weeks after downgrades?
Somewhat, Forest Oil went down, but those aren’t all of GS downgrades. I’ll probably get out if the price drops below the pre-market low. Has anyone seen a tick below $54 today?
Looks like $53.57 is the pre-market low so far.
I show 53.64
yes there have been plenty of ticks below 54 this a.m.
Solar Citay!!!!
SCTY, SSYS, and TRLA….talk about morning wood.
SCTY 21% short .. talk about your nuts in a vice !!!
uhhh YGE SOL also
Keep holding SCTY and YGE?
YGE also 21% short
Cliff and Angie. uggghh
sharp reversal on ssys and yy
whoa FSLR… slow down.
Not getting a good feel with the market. Moves higher across the board met with selling.
The only green for me is SLV and AG
sold my FSLR
and my P weeklies, +250% while holding for only 3 trading days
Congrats bro you beat me:-) Nothing like tripling your money on the first trading day. Just hoping WDAY and MS breakout for me now
Me too, i picked up my MS on the 30th though so she’s already pretty green
Going to eat a sandwich………..
Bot some MS
Stock? If option which strike and expiry, thanks.
Jan 31 monthly options.
Sold FSLR for a loss and sold Pandora for a 210% gain
sold my $FSLR options at a considerable loss.. still holding stock
BOT Feb 22 FSLR calls, 2.85 60
If it touches 47, I’ll initiate a HUGE long stock position.
Anybody know why SWKS options are up while stock is down? I’m guessing higher IV… but why?
Jeff – Is there a point you would add to your FSLR stock position?
if i would guess not before the 61.8 Fib level
Really liking what ANGIE is doing here; rejected teh 12’s again! I know Jeff saw that also; probably added to his position
ANGI has just gotten dumped by those who don’t want her anymore. I think she needs some “lol” for a couple weeks to help her get over the dumping… ha
Don’t worry ANGI, I’ll “hold” you… SURE you can bring your asian friend QIHU
Good thing I went for that sandwich. I missed the PM flashcrash. Nothing to see here…………
Anyone like this dip in DANG? It’s running off of higher lows and higher highs.
I’m looking, but to me, the bottom of the wedge is around $8.50.
Thx jacked rabbit. Buy order in for KBH at 17.86. FYI
Don’t thank me too soon. I see DANG is reversing today, at least. Up about 8-9 cents since we talked.
Bought ANGI today. If you look at the 3 day minute chart you see a pretty obvious reversal. Bought stock at 13.13. Low volume. Put your seatbelt on. Thanks OA
MS on the move
i thought it was a tad weird that $FSLR was underperforming the $TAN over the past 3 to 4 days, perhaps telegraphing this move a bit. But a 10% drop on a GS downgrade… ouch!
i would say its “sandwich time”, but i’m liable to throw my sandwich at someones face.
jan $60 calls are definitely broken in my eyes, i just want a little upswing to salvage some premium.
Maybe we get a swing back like TRLA did following capitulation a few weeks back.
The volume is hefty on FSLR so far and would suggest this is morning should be the low.
caught the low in aapl. also bot MU
sold half of my w 57 fslr puts from last friday (+ 420 % ) , next stop 61.8 fib
Goldman just getting their position on in FSLR at everybody elses expense…yawn…
Really?? Goldman target 24
http://prognolic.com/ticker/FSLR/analystcalls
getting waxed today in a lot. guess this is the drawdown I need to climb back up from…yuck. still holding onto gains in SSYS, but didn’t get out earlier today like I maybe should have. Wish i knew if it was a 3D dip today or if further lows are ahead.
Today is a day to take the hit, regroup for another day.
For me I’ve gotta position size better.
What I can never get right is what positions to take profits on and which to let ride.
The last thing today is telling me loud and clear is to be more patient and wait for those setups that build up over months rather than on a 5m chart. Like that first OA trade I took in FSLR back in August.
I’m right there with ya, only two of my ten positions are green. I’m still holding my Jan DDD calls with a big gain (although that’s been cut almost in half today). May cash out on a bounce.
Today is day to BUY, not SELL
Agreed, unfortunately I am 100% invested and have to sell something in order to buy anything.
Its almost as if GS looked at my port and said let’s downgrade those holdings.
+1
PCLN either teetering on great entry point or ready for a big drop.
lan thats great work up top – im just wondering out loud, we all pay for the service, and there is a private chat associated with it, seems awfully generous to share this stuff day in day out with the hoi polloi
Agree on private chat – but everything contained in my post has, at some point, been posted in this forum.
FSLR is fugly, no doubt about it. It’s unlikely to recover in the short term, but should be okay in the intermediate term and long term.
But do you want to wait with albatross around your neck at the start of 2014? I ate the loss and am moving on to new trade ideas.
@Matt_Bear
Followed your lead (shorthand for “stole your idea”) and took the 4th week Jan calls @ 0.46.
CLF that is…
got GMCR 24 Jan (weekly) 81’s at .89 and some MU 24 Jan (weekly) 22’s at .80.
Looking at VIPS but I’m struggling with the cost… so damn expensive!
@ lanforce, you have any ideas on SWKS today? The option is up but stock is down, im wondering if it’s a free opportunity to sell
Option prices are a pretty good indicator of where the stock is headed.
Never anything wrong with a profit.
Thanks for the input, im struggling with it only because I shot first then asked the questions. Amateur hour here
Up 200% on my YOKU calls. Outside of FSLR I’m having a complete opposite day of Friday