Joined Aug 2, 2009
1,847 Blog Posts
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Aversion?
That chart is GOD.. but i am an atheist 🙂
kschep,
Either that, or “I’ve already shit my pants, will someone buy the dip” phase.
I’m buying dips today: WLT, ECL, BIIB, CELG, AMZN…holding HII, CMG (had a bad entry, but its closing above my stop). Holding GMCR…simply earnings play at this point, ready to lose all of it.
and NFLX…I felt like I needed to put something to work in this market. Still leaving some powder though.
my last idea…TMO. I literally played coed volleyball against a team of TMO a few weeks ago…and I kid you not…they were nerdy. 1 game played out 25-0…no athleticism, so I trust their genius!
I like it – forget TA or fundamentals – invest in what you see
JCP traded 94 million shares today…
that’s either a shooting star, or someone with inside info on something big happening.
Volume pocket till 12…
Magnetized to 1100 on the RUT.
i love that front page picture. always cracks me up. LOL
Clearly we are in the “disbelief” phase. Thank you Justin Mamis
It sort of looks like that. Geez…
it does look almost identical to disbelief stage, but do you really think that we have gone through a public enthusiasm stage?
I thought Disbelief as well. Looked like a ‘subtle warning’ to me.
Review any market top. The rejection of the last move up would have been fast. This has been anything but fast.
if this is disbelief, then that was quite an angry enthusiasm stage.
The chart is from 11/1 though.
good observation. Wonder what OA has up his sleeve for the call today…
If taper starts in december people will disbelieve no more
If we were in disbelief don’t you think enthusiasm would of been way more enthusiastic?
Either buy the dip or Disbelief…lol
Not good; definitely not good.
Here is your poll answer for sentiment.
E. Scared shitless
I just got long calls on a new company called Aversion, the premium is cheap…
You people drive me crazy. I clearly see we are at the aversion stage.
Fellas, we’re in denial. Markets skyrocketed past 1700 to 1800 then was denied. Retail investors are still underinvested i.e. households. This chart would be perfect for the 90s, before people knew the pangs of debt, but average households are still scared as shit of investing. Once shoeshine boys start talking about the latest 3D IPO, then you should be scared.
Look at the sentiment chart. One thing that’s very clear is how enthusiasm is rejected fast, as big money unloads into strength. Everything has been slow and on light volume.
I think he means the Denial Phase. Lots of different opinions on where we are in the sentiment cycle but what is clear is in the opinions that we’re in front of upside. Possibly some major upside. Maybe even generational upside.
With the sentiment spread being on the extreme, it fits to think of the impending disbelief.
OA, I completely agree, that’s why I think we’re nowhere close to enthusiasm yet. I propose we’re in the “denial” stage, maybe you read “disbelief”. I think confidence isn’t completely restored at all, and I think we’re heading to 2250 by EO2014.
I agree. I was saying the same thing on the call today. Everyone is still pissed off with the market at highs.
Great analysis.
As a corollary, I think we’re going to see consistent but not ridiculous gains (20-25% isn’t ridiculous historically), due to loss aversion. I think we’re mimicking the market sentiment of 1982- 2015 won’t be great because people get it, stocks are going up, but then we’ll get consistent 20 or even bigger years. Then we’ll have pullbacks based on “real recessions”, then people will forget debt a while from now and everything will start all over.
Shit didn’t even realize that was RUT and not SPX, woops. Ha oh well, not sure about small-caps but SPX is going up.
For the market to be ready for the next ramp up, shouldn’t the VIX be much higher than it is today?
hang tuff Jeff, we are in the “blame Kohler for the market downturn”phase…the worm is about to turn,as it always does
I wish the volume of thanks for overnight trades like AAPL or 3 day 1000% LNKD trades matched or exceeded the “your mother wears combat boots” posts in a sideways (can’t really say down) market.
I’m betting a nice steak dinner that Jeff’s negative emails on off days are 3:1 to positive emails on those spectacular days we’ve all enjoyed.
Pity
Part of putting yourself out there.
i think that we’ll be past the Denial Phase and heading towards Returning Confidence when people stop saying BTFD. 2010-2011 = Wall of Worry. 2011-2012 = Aversion. We’re struggling to climb out of the Denial Phase right now. Just my two cents.
VIX only ramps in bear markets from what I understand. Avg VIX in bull markets is more like 15 fwiw, not that low right now.
Dida not see and enthusiasm in the market lately..really..
Is this a rorschach test in the church of behavioral markets ?
Jeff – just wanted to note that tonight’s AHWOA was excellent – informative, thoughtful – and just the right amount of cold water.
x2
+1
Yep, aversion..
And then… !!!
Give me a $NYMO in -60 to -80 range, and then ‘with both hands’ looooooong
Feeling better this morning; just hope that afternoon Bernanke/Ichan sell off doesn’t take hold. or else my IBS my start acting up….:-)
I see a clear H&S on the 30 min on SPX. So far, this kind of pattern has failed. If it goes higher, I’ll go with the Denial phase. If it breaks down that pattern for real, we got a disbelief overt warning sign. I still think the H&S top on the 30 will fail and with reach new highs.. we’ll see
Can you throw out a chart? I’m struggling to see anything remotely close to a head and shoulders pattern.
what’s your email again?
tradingaddicts@gmail
on the 30 min chart, i’m seeing a potential wedge in which SPX is at the top trendline right now. (connect 11/4 low with monday afternoon 1800)Apex is at 1775 around early next week.
or we can just take off now. works for me.
haha
$RUT up 11 – could there be a Friday “miracle” in our future ?