I’ve been trading since 98, which is not nearly as long as some of the senior citizens that participate on this great space of financial content. This trading experience of mine has allowed me to participate in an entire catalogue of market conditions. I can recall with great detail, the positive environments of the late 90’s, the great run from 03-07, and of course, the ugly times too. However, the one thing that has stood out to me, as a generation of market participants have gotten starched over the last 15 years, is that sentiment towards the financial markets has never been worse…from my experience.
You people are all miserable, and rightfully so. You exploded onto the scene in 99, only to lose your shirt and your savings. When you built it back up, you returned from a motivational seminar with a new wad of cash fresh off a second mortgage, only to watch it burn along with your job in 2008. Most of your friends, family and co-workers have fled the scene long ago, realizing the playing field is not level. They no longer believe in the system, and long term optimism has completely diminished over the last 5 years.
Now that everyone has turned towards the idea that the long term outcome of the financial system is doomed, it’s a rigged game, house of cards, etc… The new class of “short and hold” strategists can only pick fights out of frustration. They’ve been saying for years how screwed we all are. They hate stocks and love Gold, especially at their basis of $1700 per ounce. But the rest of us just follow the paper money, until she runs dry.
The last multi-year run like this we had was fun. The mood was positive, people were supportive, and eager to learn. This time around, everyone is a disgruntled burnout – angry when they lose money, and even angrier when they make it. It feels like the higher we go, the more tension it creates.
I can say all this from experience, not just from observation. In my own personal life, my attitude is shit, people generally annoy me now, and personal relationships are suffering as a result of the negativity I have to immerse myself in everyday. Funny that this is the case even though I have made a ton of money over the years. At the end of the day, it feels like less of an accomplishment now that nobody cares.
My venture here is to provide actionable trading ideas and commentary. In doing so, I am going to work hard to keep it as positive of an environment as I can. My track record suggests I swing better when I am having fun and am in a better mood. You should do the same.
OA
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Always appreciate the ideas and knowledge you share here…GRPN included.
GRPN was a smash. Happy to see someone traded it.
GRPN put me in a great mood this morning! thanks! then the VMW went into the money and I cashed out too. Sushi for lunch today! ha
Word.
I had a looooong conversation with my shrink last night about this exact topic, like seriously it was word for word. (He also trades, but way less frequently.)
I’m headed back to a shrink…decided last night. I did this in 06 with someone who traded…one of the best things I’ve ever done for my trading.
Nice post! I think you are onto something with the generally negative environment. A positive attitude can make a huge difference towards success in my experience and can be a struggle to keep up when surrounded by negativity. I would also add that trading is best left alone during times of personal stress.
Nice stuff OA. I be rooting for you Capn!
Up tremendously on GRPN and TSLA Aug calls. My dilemma is when to cash them post earnings. Any insight would be appreciated.
I booked GRPN. TSLA is a tough one.
Thank you for all that you do. It amazes me that people come on here to bash a free POV, advice, tips, or whatever you want to call it.
the problem, OA, is that math doesn’t lie. It is what it is and there is no changing it. We are simply delaying it. A lot of people are mad because if we took our lumps back in 2007, while we would have gone thru some pain as the bad debt is cleared thru the system, we’d be well back on our way in a recovery stage. The route that the TPTB have chosen means the amount of pain later will be even greater. Trading the tape while ignoring the facts is tough for most people to do.
You would think it wouldn’t matter. You are right, the math doesn’t lie, but the timing is what we are arguing. Its like buying stocks in the first half of 07, knowing it would all collapse in the near future. One would think they could just focus on making money, and STFU about everything else. Wishful thinking, I suppose.
Be more specific… What numbers are you talking about?
Too funny , give it another 20 + yrs. and the noise will make you an angry s.o.b. 24/7 . It’s a terrible curse to be addicted to this garbage .
Meanwhile I exited most of UBNT ahead of earnings and doubled down on BX .
Blessed is he who expects nothing for he shall never be disappointed.
Words of wisdom from Alexander Pope?
After all these years, still having trouble letting the market do the work. Maybe if I listen to surfing music while trading? It’s the wave, man, not the surfer?
Or as they say “let the Dude abide”
Do you see $CLF going higher from here? Made some good returns on Aug calls and thinking if I should cash probably half of them today on the surge.
Bought some last Thursday, caught a huge lift and sold. I think these stocks outperform the rest of the year.
I agree. I just couldn’t let a nice profit go to waste. Booked it completely. Will enter back on pullbacks.
OA, seems like everyone hates XCO now. Watching the hammers on the hourly, see how she breaks for a quick hit on the long side. How’s it looking to your eye?
Not bad, Granpa. Like the idea.
well said. as a reformed degenerate gambler myself, I have learned if Im going to risk it, I should be ready to lose it. It used to effect my persona as you described. Now I try to make a few bucks, without swinging for the fences everytime in an all or nothing approach. See I felt it was WIN OR LOSE like a game. Now Ive learned that winning even by just a little is OK. Enough. I need a fresh idea. Whats you best idea today OA? Love your writing. Thanks for all the help.
DECK, OIBR and GMCR.
Thoughts on FSLR at this point? – looking to average down if it continues lower to 35-36, but just staying the course at this point.
I have this vision of a $100 stock in 1-2 years.
If you want me to make heads or tails of the noise in between, I won’t have much to say for a few weeks. I plan to add to this also, since I bought small at the onset.
That works – treating it as a buy and forget for the most part, but would definitely be looking to add on further weakness
…which I guess could actually be categorized as a “buy and check price constantly and in a frenzied state.”
lol
OA
You put me in a good mood with your great idea (great work on AAPL, at least thusfar).
Goldbugs put me in a bad mood as gold is the world’s fiat. Anybody who thinks otherwise doesn’t understand the socio of socio-economics.
ideas, not idea, my bad
Will follow you FSLR holding tight. GMCR will be short idea or long ? By the way I do tai chi, it helps me a lot physically and mentally.
I do Crossfit and sparring sessions at my local gym. Helps me get through the day.
Boxing?
Yeah, love to throw punches.
You and me both.
I’d bet you couldn’t punch your way out of a paper bag.
I can be in your home state tonight. I would pay you for the opportunity.
You’d get hoo-li-hanned, son.
Do you like YELP here ?
I like it enough to cheer for you.
Thanks. I needed ! Do you accept new client to manage their money ?
Ask me in December.
Will do. Thanks.
OA, re: $GMCR, piggy backing on your thesis about volume pockets, doesn’t this one look like it has a potential to shoot up from 81.5 to 110 or so?
Excellent analysis
PCLN gonna give me a heart attack…which tells me I should not be playing the earnings release.
BNNY been holding this since Jan ..working this thesis of healthy lifestyle stocks..anyone have any others?
Love that thesis. Best trend for the long term out there…besides new world order.
Nailed it on the head. We are all waiting for the next shoe to drop. That’s why I envy the youngster and their virgin ignorance.
Thanks OA, i was looking at a small biotech NNVC, nice rounded bottom, any room on your bitoech list for this one?
OA says “They hate stocks and love Gold, especially at their basis of $1700 per ounce. But the rest of use just follow the paper money, until she runs dry.”
OA, If I wasn’t actually contributing to the better of society by creating real jobs that actually produce something of intrinsic value, I may take you by the head and stick it in the sand with regards to this trading game you speak of. What makes you think that us “gold bugs”, a term made up by those who rely on rigged ponzinomics, are really holding physical at higher prices? Do you understand that there are people in this world that actually invest in secular cycles and don’t spend there lives in front of a computer? Do you get this, you trading pleb? This is a cyclical bear in Metals within a longer secular bull that will last much longer than your short sided brain can handle. What are you going to say when AU is hitting new highs, you called the bottom?.. Idiotese!
Sierra Water
LOL. I rest my case. A little pissed your thesis is getting fleeced.
Nice! My thesis is getting fleeced? My secular call is wrong? I’m hold a cost basis of 1700? My secular call is up 7 digits and will hit all time highs within 12 months. I have made wrong secular calls before, but this is not one of them. This is all documented in the halls of IBC… And who is antagonizing and talking out of your ass? You sir!
Sierra Water
LOL – you started it. I tripped an obvious nerve. Hey, we’re a shoulder to cry on…feel free to let it out.
Look at the volume in gold, cost basis indeed has a HUGE portion of capital tied up at $1700 an ounce and higher. Just facts and as a general statement to say the gold bugs have that cost basis is not too farfetched, even if a few specific goldbugs may have bought at $800 or whatever.
Plus, if you re-read the post asshole, it was a blanket statement about sentiment in Metals. There was no call. Apparently my labeling of your personal and irrelevant sentiment was misguided. However, in the sentiment chart I provided, there wasn’t an emotion labeled “pissed off.”
I talk secular cycles weekly, and just because yours is wrong doesn’t invite you to come bark up my tree. Call your broker.
I used to be an investor, but became primarily a day trader out of fear of the shit hitting the fan when I wasn’t looking. Your approach of swinging and using options to define risk is very appealing to me for this reason.
Shit man, If you’re doing this well while suffering from negativity, I can’t wait to see how you do after you’ve been shrunk.,
After I hit the couch in 2006, after having drawn down nearly 20%, I rolled my accounts nearly 500% as of the end of year, 2007. That streak put me on the map back then.
Any suggestions on who is worth talking to? Or how to find one that would actually be useful?
That is hard to do. Word of mouth is best. I sent out a few emails to former colleagues…looking for someone relatively local.
OA – you’re analysis is apt. I question who these “retail” investors are that I hear people speak of, because I’ve never met anyone who did this sort of thing less than 100%.
People who had money made it in the 90’s only to lose it all by ’08. Since then they are either broke, or have someone else manage it.
But I agree – since the beginning of my foray into this, there is no “joy” in it. There is the thrill of the hunt, but money made and lost is a side effect.
Here I find people who at least “understand”. They are the rare breed. People who understand the joy of stalking a trophy and mounting it on your wall. A great many people in life never truly understand what we pursue.
Great comments. Thank you for posting them.
OA, good commentary. It’s time to clear out the stale holdings in order to refresh with new ones. . . .
I did just that this morning. I’m jumping in the metal trade once some of these front runners pull back. I have a ton of junk in my portfolio that is not performing. Out with the old and in with the shiny and cupric while it’s still cheap.
Thoughts on RAX 42.50 calls for 3.60 into earnings – Yeah or Nay?
Sorry, I got nothing.
Not the vote of confidence I was wanting. Thanks for all your hard work and ideas.
Left the bid in at 3.60, hit 3.62 – RAX 49.25 AH – damn missed that one.
Good call tho.
Nice blog OA!!
You’re good for IBC!