S&P 500 – as expected but there´s sth. pretty disturbing

512 views

 

Market developed as anticipated in my last post “The topping process is in full shape”. As I wrote I think we will bounce from here and there is strong evidence for that. When AAII Investor Sentiment released their data last week I thought that cannot be true. But this weeks data confirm them.

 

AAII Sentiment

 

You see here the S&P500 index and the AAII Bearish Readings. Normally such high bearish readings are only seen after corrections but normally not when the markets are already extended and supposed to be in a topping process. That´s really unusual. But it is what it is – meaning the market as I wrote in the last post will at least bounce around for some more weeks before correcting. Technically you have all evidence there that the topping process is in, from a sentiment point of view quite the contrary. We just can wait and see how it plays out, maybe market is not correcting at all. Yesterday I saw CNBC talking about a Head and Shoulder pattern forming and there was also a yahoo poll about if there is a market correcting coming. That makes me very very skeptical if we can correct. Best guess we bounce, make new highs and sentiment changes.

 

Cheers

 

p.s. if u like what u see I would be delighted about a comment thx

 

 

The Topping Process is in full shape

216 views

 

 

This is my second post. In the first one I was confident we are in a topping process. Admitted I was a bit early but I would say half right, just early.

Now the evidence is even more clear.

Capture2

 

As you see we have divergences in the weekly – that´s heavy sh**!

 

My buest guess is:

Capture

 

I think it´s more likely we come tomorrow into the 154 SPY area and then bounce from there. After that we either bounce in this sideways chanel or make a new high, then bounce and fail and drop or make another high and drop from there. we had something like this in 2012 until we broke in May support and headed lower. So this chopfest could go some while DO NOT OVERTRADE HERE when u don´t know how to do it properly.

 

Cheers

 

p.s. I always edit my post 100 times – I don´t know why too stupid I guess so here is an important chart I wanted to add:

 

Capture3

The first chart  shows stocks above their 40 day moving average, the second is the McCLellan Summation Index. In short when most of the stocks don´t move higher with the market that normally ends bad for the main indexes.

 

MAJOR EVIDENCE OF A TOPPING PROCESS

301 views

 

 

This is my 1. post and as I am not much of a speaker/writer I just give u the facts:

1. In my opinion we are at the beginning of a topping process – the evidence is there.

2. What we see today is pretty similar to what we saw in the first half of 2012.

3. negative RSI Divergences / more and more falling stocks; not participating stocks (NYSI) / weak Emerging Markets

p.s. if u are not familiar with NYSI pls infrom u about the McClellan Summation Index

 

Conclusion: Be careful here / do not use margin / select ur stocks carefully / don´t get sucked in the market after big movements / of course nothing is for sure

 

pls let me know if u find this helpful

yours noEquity

 

ibc

S&P 500 – as expected but there´s sth. pretty disturbing

512 views

 

Market developed as anticipated in my last post “The topping process is in full shape”. As I wrote I think we will bounce from here and there is strong evidence for that. When AAII Investor Sentiment released their data last week I thought that cannot be true. But this weeks data confirm them.

 

AAII Sentiment

 

You see here the S&P500 index and the AAII Bearish Readings. Normally such high bearish readings are only seen after corrections but normally not when the markets are already extended and supposed to be in a topping process. That´s really unusual. But it is what it is – meaning the market as I wrote in the last post will at least bounce around for some more weeks before correcting. Technically you have all evidence there that the topping process is in, from a sentiment point of view quite the contrary. We just can wait and see how it plays out, maybe market is not correcting at all. Yesterday I saw CNBC talking about a Head and Shoulder pattern forming and there was also a yahoo poll about if there is a market correcting coming. That makes me very very skeptical if we can correct. Best guess we bounce, make new highs and sentiment changes.

 

Cheers

 

p.s. if u like what u see I would be delighted about a comment thx

 

 

The Topping Process is in full shape

216 views

 

 

This is my second post. In the first one I was confident we are in a topping process. Admitted I was a bit early but I would say half right, just early.

Now the evidence is even more clear.

Capture2

 

As you see we have divergences in the weekly – that´s heavy sh**!

 

My buest guess is:

Capture

 

I think it´s more likely we come tomorrow into the 154 SPY area and then bounce from there. After that we either bounce in this sideways chanel or make a new high, then bounce and fail and drop or make another high and drop from there. we had something like this in 2012 until we broke in May support and headed lower. So this chopfest could go some while DO NOT OVERTRADE HERE when u don´t know how to do it properly.

 

Cheers

 

p.s. I always edit my post 100 times – I don´t know why too stupid I guess so here is an important chart I wanted to add:

 

Capture3

The first chart  shows stocks above their 40 day moving average, the second is the McCLellan Summation Index. In short when most of the stocks don´t move higher with the market that normally ends bad for the main indexes.

 

MAJOR EVIDENCE OF A TOPPING PROCESS

301 views

 

 

This is my 1. post and as I am not much of a speaker/writer I just give u the facts:

1. In my opinion we are at the beginning of a topping process – the evidence is there.

2. What we see today is pretty similar to what we saw in the first half of 2012.

3. negative RSI Divergences / more and more falling stocks; not participating stocks (NYSI) / weak Emerging Markets

p.s. if u are not familiar with NYSI pls infrom u about the McClellan Summation Index

 

Conclusion: Be careful here / do not use margin / select ur stocks carefully / don´t get sucked in the market after big movements / of course nothing is for sure

 

pls let me know if u find this helpful

yours noEquity

 

ibc