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Germans see Merkel as defender of euro

BERLIN (Reuters) – Angela Merkel’s supporters praised her for getting France to drop demands to use the European Central Bank to leverage euro crisis funds, but looked like making a meal out of the German parliament’s new right to be consulted on how these are used.

“Merkel’s Battle for our Euro,” was Monday’s headline in the mass-circulation conservative paper Bild, saying she taught France’s Nicolas Sarkozy “that the EFSF rescue fund cannot be used to print money” to solve the debt crisis.

“The chancellor must stick to her guns — in the interests of Germany and of Europe,” said the newspaper.

But while her supporters in the Bundestag (lower house of parliament) welcomed the assertiveness in Sunday’s summit from a leader often accused of dithering, they also risked delaying Europe’s response to the debt crisis at a crucial juncture by insisting on a full debate before Wednesday’s second summit.

Her Christian Democrats’ (CDU) floor leader Volker Kauder was said to want a full debate rather than just a vote by the 41-member budget committee, which would be quicker and less risky while still fulfilling new rules on consulting MPs.

A government source said the lower house would vote on the issue on Wednesday.

With criticism ringing in Germany’s ears from the head of the Eurogroup of single currency members, Jean-Claude Juncker, about it being slow to make decisions, Merkel met the heads of the main parties to seek consensus.

As a result of a constitutional court decision last month, she cannot agree to changes to the 440 billion euro European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) without the agreement of the Bundestag’s budget committee, scheduled to meet on Tuesday.

She is then due to address parliament on Wednesday before returning to Brussels for what should be a more decisive summit on boosting the firepower of the EFSF, raising the contribution of private banks to Greece’s rescue, and getting European banks to increase their own capital to prevent contagion.

Her conservative bloc’s chief whip, Peter Altmaier, said Sunday’s summit “made headway” on all three issues, including “using the EFSF to avoid having to print money,” and it should now be possible to produce the “comprehensive” crisis response that Merkel and Sarkozy have promised by the end of this month.

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Libya moving to implement Shariah Law

This naturally includes such principles as totally banning interest on loans because it “pits man against man” or some such nonsense. Awesome…

Read here:

The transitional government leader Mustafa Abdul-Jalil called on Libyans to show “patience, honesty and tolerance” and eschew hatred as they embark on rebuilding the country at the end of an 8-month civil war.

Abdul-Jalil set out a vision for the post-Qaddafi future with an Islamist tint, saying that Islamic Sharia law would be the “basic source” of legislation in the country and that existing laws that contradict the teachings of Islam would be nullified.

In a gesture that showed his own piety, he urged Libyans not to express their joy by firing in the air, but rather to chant “Allahu Akbar,” or God is Great. He then stepped aside and knelt to offer a brief prayer of thanks.

“This revolution was looked after by God to achieve victory,” he told the crowd at the declaration ceremony in the eastern city of Benghazi, the birthplace of the uprising against Qaddafi began. He thanked those who fell in the fight against Qaddafi’s forces. “This revolution began peacefully to demand the minimum of legitimate rights, but it was met by excessive violence.”

Tens of thousands gathered in the eastern city of Benghazi Sunday as Libya’s transitional leader declared his country’s liberation, three days after ousted dictator Muammar Qaddafi was captured and killed.

President Obama congratulated Libya on their declaration of liberation.

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Dozens remain trapped after quake in Turkey

ANKARA, Turkey – Rescue teams on Monday sifted through rubble of flattened multistory buildings to try to reach dozens of people believed trapped beneath after a 7.2-magnitude earthquake struck eastern Turkey.

Cries of panic and horror filled the air as the earthquake struck, killing at least 238 people as buildings pancaked and crumpled into rubble.

Tens of thousands fled into the streets running, screaming or trying to reach relatives on cell phones as apartment and office buildings cracked or collapsed. As the full extent of the damage became clear, survivors dug in with shovels or even their bare hands, desperately trying to rescue the trapped and the injured.

“My wife and child are inside! My 4-month-old baby is inside!” CNN-Turk television showed one young man sobbing outside a collapsed building in Van, the provincial capital.

The hardest hit area was Ercis, an eastern city of 75,000 close to the Iranian border, which lies on one of Turkey’s most earthquake-prone zones. The bustling city of Van, about 55 miles to the south, also sustained substantial damage. Highways in the area caved in. The temblor struck at 1:41 p.m. local time, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

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Karzai says Afghanistan would back Pakistan over U.S. in war

KABUL, Afghanistan – Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said if the United States and Pakistan ever went to war, his country would back Islamabad, drawing a sharp rebuke Sunday from Afghan lawmakers who claimed the country’s top officials were adopting hypocritical positions.

The scenario is exceedingly unlikely and appears to be less a serious statement of policy than an Afghan overture to Pakistan, just days after Karzai and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Islamabad must do more to crack down on militants using its territory as a staging ground for attacks on Afghanistan.

“If fighting starts between Pakistan and the U.S., we are beside Pakistan,” Karzai said is an interview with private Pakistani television station GEO that aired Saturday. “If Pakistan is attacked and the people of Pakistan need Afghanistan’s help, Afghanistan will be there with you.”

He said that Kabul would not allow any nation, including the U.S., to dictate its policies.

Both Washington and Kabul have repeatedly said Pakistan is providing sanctuary to militant groups launching attacks in Afghanistan.

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Banks seek to limit imminent losses from Greek debt

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The world’s biggest banks are squabbling with European leaders over the size of losses on their Greek bonds as they seek a deal to cut the country’s debt load, two people with knowledge of the discussions said.

The financial companies, represented by the Institute of International Finance, proposed a loss of 40 percent on Greek debt, said one of the people, who declined to be identified because talks are confidential. The European Union is calling on investors to forfeit as much as 60 percent, making a compromise at 50 percent possible, the person said.

The talks are part of an attempt to solve the two-year-old sovereign-debt crisis that has pushed Greece closer to default, roiled global markets and dented confidence in the survival of the 17-nation currency. EU leaders are scrambling to reach an agreement on bolstering the region’s rescue fund, recapitalizing banks and relieving Greece to avoid contagion spreading to Italy and Spain before another summit in two days.

Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads the group of euro-area finance ministers, said talks on private-sector involvement in a second aid package for Greece are focusing on losses of “about 50 percent, 60 percent.”

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EU PMI contracts most since July 2009

LONDON (Reuters) – The euro zone’s private sector tipped further into decline in October, according to business surveys on Monday that showed the bloc’s economy is in serious danger of lurching from stagnation into outright recession.

Shrinking order books and plummeting confidence sent euro zone factories into contraction for the third month in a row, and service sector companies for a second month.

The Flash Markit Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures business activity at thousands of firms from banks to restaurants, sank to 47.2 this month from September’s 48.8, well below a Reuters consensus of 48.5.

In fact, none of the 35 economists polled by Reuters thought this preliminary reading of the services index would fall so far below the 50 mark that divides growth and contraction.

With Europe’s leaders laboring over effective means to fight a sovereign debt crisis that threatens to unleash a new global financial crisis, the PMIs showed little hope of cheerier days ahead soon.

“Most indicators seem to suggest it is going to get worse not better in the coming months. So there is a significant chance of a contraction in the fourth quarter,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at survey compiler Markit.

He said the current level of the indexes, which have a good record of tracking economic growth, could signal a quarterly rate of decline approaching half a percentage point.

The services new business sub-index fell to 46.2 in October from 47.1 in September, its lowest reading since July 2009 when the euro zone was still escaping the worst recession since World War II.

A Reuters poll conducted earlier this month showed a 40 percent chance the euro zone will slip back into recession, while economists now expect the European Central Bank to reverse some of its monetary policy tightening later this year.

German manufacturing contracted this month for the first time in two years, according to individual country PMIs released earlier on Monday. The service sector rebounded unexpectedly but that was perhaps the only bright spot among this month’s surveys.

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China PMI rebounds modestly

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s vast manufacturing sector expanded moderately in October to snap three months of contraction, reflecting the resilience of robust domestic demand that is likely to soothe fears of an abrupt slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

HSBC’s flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) also showed price pressures eased in China, underlining consumer price data that has shown a slight pullback in inflation from three-year peaks.

The flash PMI, designed to give an early snapshot of the month’s factory activity, rose to 51.1 in October from September’s final reading of 49.9 as new orders and new export orders expanded.

The reading surpassed the 50-point level demarcating expansion from contraction for the first time since June, when the PMI was 51.6.

“Thanks to the pick-up in new orders and output, the headline flash PMI rebounded back into expansionary territory during October, marking a steady start to manufacturing activities in the four quarter,” said Qu Hongbin, China economist at HSBC.

“Meanwhile, inflation components within the PMI results confirmed stable output prices growth and slower input price inflation. All these data confirm our view that there is no risk of a hard landing in China,” he said.

Qu expects annual industrial output growth to hover around 13 percent in October and the central bank to keep monetary policy stable in the coming months.

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EU outlines bank plan, rescue fund

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European leaders reached the halfway mark of their marathon to end the debt crisis, outlining plans to aid banks and ruling out tapping the European Central Bank’s balance sheet to boost the region’s rescue fund.

Stocks advanced and the euro rose after Europe’s 13th crisis-management summit in 21 months, which also explored how to strengthen the International Monetary Fund’s role. The leaders excluded a forced restructuring of Greek debt, sticking with the tactic of enticing bondholders to accept losses to help restore the country’s finances. China said today that it had “faith” in the European Union’s ability to tackle the crisis.

“It seems that progress has been made over the weekend to get to a ‘comprehensive package,’ but it is unlikely to be a bold one,” said Juergen Michels at Citigroup Inc. in London. “There remain many open questions.”

Greece’s deteriorating finances have narrowed Europe’s room for maneuver in battling the contagion, which threatens to pitch the country into default, rattle the banking system, infect Spain and Italy and tip the world economy into recession.

The complete blueprint won’t come together until a summit in two days, giving German Chancellor Angela Merkel time to go back to Berlin to brief her lawmakers and seek their approval for the next steps. Like yesterday, it will start with all 27 EU leaders before the 17 heads of euro economies gather on their own.

‘Options are Converging’

“Work is going well on the banks, and on the fund and the possibilities of using the fund, the options are converging,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy told reporters at the Brussels summit yesterday. “On the question of Greece, things are moving along. We’re not there yet.”

The euro rose as much as 0.4 percent to $1.3951, trading at $1.3897 at 9:49 a.m. in Berlin. The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.5 percent to 240.12, its second day of gains.

The mayhem began in Greece in October 2009, when an unexpected cash shortfall left the new government unable to pay for its election promises. Since then, 256 billion euros of bailouts have failed to stem the tide, which rattled France this month, prompting Standard & Poor’s to warn the country may lose its top sovereign credit rating.

Expressing concern over the potential impact on their nations, world leaders including President Barack Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao have stepped up calls for Europe to defuse the risk to the global economy.

European leaders reached the halfway mark of their marathon to end the debt crisis, outlining plans to aid banks and ruling out tapping the European Central Bank’s balance sheet to boost the region’s rescue fund.

Stocks advanced and the euro rose after Europe’s 13th crisis-management summit in 21 months, which also explored how to strengthen the International Monetary Fund’s role. The leaders excluded a forced restructuring of Greek debt, sticking with the tactic of enticing bondholders to accept losses to help restore the country’s finances. China said today that it had “faith” in the European Union’s ability to tackle the crisis.

“It seems that progress has been made over the weekend to get to a ‘comprehensive package,’ but it is unlikely to be a bold one,” said Juergen Michels at Citigroup Inc. in London. “There remain many open questions.”

Greece’s deteriorating finances have narrowed Europe’s room for maneuver in battling the contagion, which threatens to pitch the country into default, rattle the banking system, infect Spain and Italy and tip the world economy into recession.

The complete blueprint won’t come together until a summit in two days, giving German Chancellor Angela Merkel time to go back to Berlin to brief her lawmakers and seek their approval for the next steps. Like yesterday, it will start with all 27 EU leaders before the 17 heads of euro economies gather on their own.

‘Options are Converging’

“Work is going well on the banks, and on the fund and the possibilities of using the fund, the options are converging,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy told reporters at the Brussels summit yesterday. “On the question of Greece, things are moving along. We’re not there yet.”

The euro rose as much as 0.4 percent to $1.3951, trading at $1.3897 at 9:49 a.m. in Berlin. The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.5 percent to 240.12, its second day of gains.

The mayhem began in Greece in October 2009, when an unexpected cash shortfall left the new government unable to pay for its election promises. Since then, 256 billion euros of bailouts have failed to stem the tide, which rattled France this month, prompting Standard & Poor’s to warn the country may lose its top sovereign credit rating.

Expressing concern over the potential impact on their nations, world leaders including President Barack Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao have stepped up calls for Europe to defuse the risk to the global economy.

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Financing U.S. Debt: Is There Enough Money in the World – and At What Cost?

I’ve isolated the money quote from the research. The research suggests that in order to finance our debt, by 2020 foreigners will have to allocate 19% of their GDP to finance the debt of the United States. Any emphasis is mine.

Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs at the University of Wisconsin-Madison

Working Paper Series
La Follette School Working Paper No. 2010-015
http://www.lafollette.wisc.edu/publications/workingpapers

5.4.3. Is there enough money in the world … in the “global portfolio?” A third challenge is whether the increase in foreign holdings of such magnitude as in the base case is plausible or even possible. That is, reflecting the Meltzer quote earlier in the paper: “Is there enough money in the world?” Chart 11 shows the implied effect from the base case on foreign official holdings of U.S. Treasury securities as a percent of world GDP (in U.S. dollars). The large increase in foreign official holdings implied by the base case would require those holdings to rise to about 19 percent of rest-of-world (ROW) GDP, up from less than 5 percent for most years of history. Bertaut, Kamin and Thomas (2009) and Mann (2009) examine the issue of the U.S. asset share of the total world asset portfolio and the extent to which foreign investment in U.S. assets can increase under continued U.S. current account deficits and growth in the U.S. net international debt. Mann observed a “financial leverage” for the “global investor portfolio” of 1.6 times (160 percent) ROW GDP. The implied change in foreign official holdings from about 7 percent of world GDP in 2009 to more than 18 percent of ROW GDP by 2020 could at first glance therefore represent a potentially manageable shift compared to the total (non-U.S.) world portfolio. Mann showed that the share of U.S. assets held by foreigners in the world portfolio was about 14 percent in 2006, and that even with a doubling or tripling of that share (associated with projected U.S. current account imbalances), “these percentages would appear to imply US assets in the global investor’s portfolio about equal to the market cap weights.” Although questions would remain about the implementation and allocations associated with increased foreign official holdings – including issues associated with private versus official portfolio allocations and competition for funds amongst various international borrowers in a time of higher debt – the relationships suggest at face value that “there would be enough money in the world” to meet the financing requirements for U.S. Treasuries over the intermediate horizon (through 2020) and under the assumptions considered in this analysis. Uncertainty remains, however, under such a projection whether world portfolio allocations would, in fact, adjust sufficiently to accommodate higher shares of U.S. assets. Further, such an expansion has limits that ultimately could not be sustained indefinitely over the long run and beyond the intermediate horizon considered here. 35 34 Auerbach and Gale (2009) discuss concerns about negative effects on GDP growth and lower potential output. 35 Similarly, Mann concluded that, in contrast to the implications from the average portfolio percentages, it “looks unreasonable” for the required marginal contributions per dollar of new investment that would have to occur for holdings of U.S. assets under those increased world portfolio shares.

Read the research here.

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Middle East Power Players Want Their Marshall Plan and They Want it Now

Arab politicians and financiers at the World Economic Forum in Jordan called on Saturday for a huge injection of cash to narrow the inequalities that led to the Arab Spring revolts against authoritarian regimes across the region.

Days after the killing of former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, senior figures said a home-grown version of the Marshall Plan was needed in the wake of the revolts, which have raised people’s hopes for swift economic improvements after decades of corruption and mismanagement.

The proposal was the most specific put forward by senior figures meeting at a luxurious Dead Sea convention center to try and chart a new economic course for the region after its most sweeping upheaval since colonial powers divided most of the Middle East following the downfall of the Ottoman Empire.

Under the Marshall Plan, large sums flowed into Western Europe to rebuild the continent, restore productivity and prevent U.S. allies from falling under the Soviet sphere of influence.

“I am afraid that Arab Spring could turn into an autumn if the issue of social justice is not achieved. A Marshall Plan is needed,” said Hassan al-Boraei, Egypt’s labor minister.

“The old model of relying on state employment and big projects is no longer viable,” Boraei said, adding that Egypt needed to find jobs for 950,000 people entering the workforce annually, with unemployment running at 12-17 percent.

Outrage against autocratic rule and associated nepotism and corruption sparked a democratic revolution in Tunisia in December that cascaded into what has become known as the Arab Spring.

So far, the revolts have toppled the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, with mass protests continuing in Syria and Yemen, threatening their autocratic presidents.

ANTIQUATED POLICES

“If the Arab Spring hopes to achieve anything it is to attain good governance. This does not necessitate only democracy and freedom but social justice, meaning economic policies that meet popular aspirations,” said Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby.

Prominent banker Ibrahim Dabdoub said the proposed “Arab Marshall Plan” could be funded by Gulf petrodollars and regional development banks, as there is little hope for major funding from Western nations dealing with their own economic trouble.

“This region needs 85 million jobs … and a Marshall Plan with the help of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund has become a pre-requisite of development,” said Dabdoub, a Palestinian who heads the National Bank of Kuwait, the country’s biggest lender.

Libya’s Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril was more skeptical about whether money alone would improve the region’s lot, saying “the problem of the Arab world is not a question of money but the management of money.”

Jibril also said on Saturday that Libyans should be allowed to vote within eight months to elect a national council to draft a new constitution and form an interim government.

Making a keynote speech at the conference, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad al-Thani said economic models had only benefited ruling classes and their cohorts, sparking the Arab Spring.

Qatar, an absolute monarchy with one of the world’s highest per capita incomes, has played an international role beyond its tiny size by virtue of its natural gas wealth and ownership of the satellite al-Jazeera channel.

Al-Thani did not address the issue of funding but said Arab economic policies that rely on attracting investment in tourism and real estate while ignoring corruption and the need to raise productivity and education standards have largely failed.

In recent years Arab states have tried to emulate the ‘Dubai model’, encouraging the setting up of big holding companies tied with the ruling hierarchy that were awarded privatization deals and embarked on large property ventures while public corruption deepened and unemployment remained stubbornly high.

Asked about his advice for Arab rulers, al-Thani said: “Don’t fight to stay in your position. What sort of power (will) you have after killing your own people?”

(Additional reporting by Tom Pfeiffer and Suleiman al-Khalidi; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

SOURCE 

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Chinese Military Adds Customer Service to Their General Tso

China may make its neighbors nervous with its robust military build-up, but it’s also increasingly using the army as part of its charm offensive abroad.

The People’s Liberation Army, in a cultural shift for an institution known for strident nationalism and unbending loyalty to the Communist Party, is expanding overseas aid missions and military exchanges in a major way. It sent 50 medics to flood-hit Pakistan this week and dispatched a hospital ship last month on a 105-day trip to poor nations in the Caribbean — right in America’s backyard.

The diplomatic push, part of a larger global campaign by the Chinese government, aims to portray China as a responsible rising power, while softening the image of the 2.3 million-member military and boosting its ties with other nations’ armed forces.

“It’s has been a big step for them, but China appreciates this as a part of the normal practices of respected major powers in their relations with other countries,” said Ron Huisken of the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defense Studies Center.

China’s “soft power” drive also includes foreign aid, cultural exchange and a massive expansion of state television to reach foreign audiences — all attempts to win friends and correct what China considers to be a biased Western portrayal of it.

The military took its first big stab at overseas disaster relief last year, sending helicopters to help out with floods in Pakistan. Last month, the air force flew 7,000 tents to the once-again flood-ravaged country and it is also shipping aid to flooded areas of Thailand.

The People’s Liberation Army, or PLA, has also become the biggest contributor of manpower to U.N. peace keeping missions, and its navy is part of a multinational anti-piracy flotilla off the coast of Somalia.

The Peace Ark hospital ship, which sailed to the Horn of Africa last year, set off on Sept. 16 for Cuba, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, and Costa Rica. More than 100 medical personnel are aboard for an operation dubbed Harmonious Mission 2011.

“The international community expects China to play such a role and that is part of China’s foreign policy,” said Xiong Zhiyong of the China Foreign Affairs University in Beijing.

Only recently has the PLA acquired the skills, equipement, and political will to carry out such missions.

Its previous inability to provide relief overseas was especially evident following the 2004 Asian tsunami.

While the U.S. Navy and other countries’ militaries rapidly shipped in huge amounts of aid and personnel, and winning tremendous goodwill for their governments, China could do little more than send a medical team to Indonesia, along with tents and other supplies.

Overseas missions also help grow its ability to deal with domestic disasters, such as the massive 2008 Sichuan earthquake, Xiong said.

At home, students from across the developing world are increasingly coming to China to take two-year military command courses, while the PLA’s University of Science and Technology has taken in a dozen army officer candidates from Laos, Mongolia, Turkmenistan and seven other countries.

The military’s newspaper called that a sign the force is “integrating itself into the world with a much more open attitude.”

Foreign military attaches are being granted more access to Chinese bases and training exercises, although much of that is carefully scripted. Top commanders have also began making more frequent visits abroad and participating in multinational forums such as the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore that attracts top defense officials from the U.S., Britain, and other major nations.

The exchanges are part of the PLA’s effort to evolve into a modern force, right down to the introduction of smart new dress uniforms intended to break down the distinction between PLA officers and their Western counterparts.

The military has been upgrading its warplanes, ships and submarines, and began sea trials this summer on a refurbished Soviet aircraft carrier, demonstrating how a once-decrepit force seems determined to go toe-to-toe with the U.S. and other regional militaries.

While that modernization disconcerts the U.S. and China’s neighbors, China says it’s needed to defend its interests. Some analysts say military diplomacy is a way to show off its strength to potential rivals, while also joining in international relief efforts.

“There is little trust between China and the U.S. so China’s recent response is to demonstrate its military capability, which also fits its commitment to helping the global community,” said Ni Lexiong, a military expert at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.

Humanitarian missions such as the dispatch of a hospital ship to Cuba also deliver a signal of China’s military resolve to its own public without risking actual confrontations with the U.S. or others, Ni said.

“The enormous public pressure requires a response and this doubly demonstrates the Chinese navy’s logistical capability,” Ni said.

The U.S. military for its part has been generally supportive of the PLA’s humanitarian drive, saying that boosts transparency and chances for peaceful interactions.

“As the Chinese military develops the capability to deliver medical and humanitarian assistance beyond its immediate region, there will be opportunities for the United States and China to collaborate and share,” the Pentagon said in its most recent report to Congress on China’s armed forces.

But on military exchanges, the PLA has yet to grasp the intrinsic value of strong ties, said Australian expert Huisken, citing the recent suspension of exchanges with the Pentagon over U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. It’s unclear what if any exchanges have so far been suspended or canceled.

“It remains a relatively superficial program,” he said. “We still don’t have a clue what their real aspirations are.”

SOURCE 

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U.S. to unfreeze Libyan assets

WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) — Even before Moammar Gadhafi’s death Thursday, the Treasury Department was already starting to thaw some $37 billion worth of frozen Libyan assets to make them available to the new government in Tripoli.

The new Libyan government will get all the money. Eventually.

Earlier this year, the United States froze its piece of what some analysts believe to be as much as $150 billion in assets that had been available to the Gadhafi regime around the world.

Outside of the United States, those assets range from real estate to stakes in the Italian bank UniCredit, the British publisher Pearson, which owns the Financial Times, and Italy’s soccer club Juventus.

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