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Report: FHA to Exhaust Capital Reserves

“The Federal Housing Administration’s projected losses hit $16.3 billion at the end of September, according to an independent annual audit to be released Friday, a much larger figure than had been forecast earlier.

The report suggests the FHA will require taxpayer funding for the first time in its 78 years, though that won’t be decided until early next year.

Housing officials said late Thursday they would announce a series of steps on Friday to raise revenue and avert such a milestone. Those steps are likely to raise the cost of FHA-backed mortgages for future borrowers.

The FHA is required to maintain enough cash to pay for projected losses on the $1.1 trillion in loans that it guarantees. Last year, the independent audit said the FHA would have $2.6 billion after covering estimated losses.

But the latest forecasts show that while the FHA currently has reserves of $30.4 billion, it expects to lose $46.7 billion on the loans it has guaranteed, resulting in a $16.3 billion deficit.

The report is likely to unleash a political fight over the government’s role backstopping the housing market, which already has required taxpayers to spend $137 billion to rescue Fannie Mae FNMA -0.36% and Freddie Mac FMCC +2.15% . Together with Fannie and Freddie, federal agencies are backing nearly nine in 10 new mortgages.

“If [the FHA] were a private company, it would be declared insolvent and probably put under conservatorship like Fannie and Freddie,” said Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist in Leesburg, Va.”

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October Foreclosures Up 3% in October, Down 19% YoY

“A total of 186,455 foreclosures filings were made in the United States during the month of October, according to real estate tracking firm RealtyTrac. That number represents a rise of 3% month-over-month, and a decline of 19% year-over-year. In January of this year, 210,941 foreclosures were filed. That equates to one in every 706 housing units in the United States.”

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Spain to Make a Decree on Foreclosures as Talks Break Down

“Socialist party officials, who had argued for an overhaul of the mortgage law, and the government failed to agree on measures that Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy pledged to implement last week after a woman facing eviction committed suicide. After three nights of negotiations, talks fell apart just as police and protesters clashed during a general strike that the Socialists had supported.”

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Mortgage Applications Rebound on Rebuilding After Hurricane

“The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its weekly report on mortgage applications this morning, noting a rise of 12.5% in the group’s seasonally adjusted composite index, compared with last week’s decrease of 5%. Unadjusted, the composite index rose by 12%.

Applications for refinancing rose 13% (seasonally adjusted), while seasonally adjusted purchase applications increased by 11% from the previous week. Unadjusted, the purchase index rose by 8% compared with the previous week and rose 22% compared with the same week a year ago.

This week’s report is very strong, and an MBA executive explains why:”

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Hong Kong Takes the Title of Most Expensive District for Retail Space

“Hong Kong ended New York’s 11-year reign as the home of the world’s most expensive district for retailers as luxury-brand companies competed for space to sell goods to mainland Chinese tourists.

Average annual rents at Causeway Bay on Hong Kong Island rose 35 percent to $2,630 a square foot at the end of June from a year ago, Cushman & Wakefield Inc. estimates. Hong Kong overtook Fifth Avenue in Manhattan, while Paris’s Avenue des Champs-Elysees rose to third in a global ranking of 326 prime shopping locations published by the real estate broker today.”

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Zillow: Prices Between Foreclosed and Non-Distressed Homes Leveling Out

“The days of buying discounted foreclosed homes throughout the United States seem to be coming to an end, according to a report by Zillow.

The foreclosure discount rate, for which Zillow compared the actual sale price of foreclosed homes nationwide with the estimated price of the same home if it were to sell in a non-distressed transaction, dropped from 9.1 percent in September 2011 to 7.7 percent in September 2012, meaning traditionally purchased home and ones owned by banks in foreclosures have almost evened out.

At the peak of the housing crisis in August 2009, prices of foreclosed homes were discounted at a national rate of 23.7 percent, on average, relative to the prices of non-distressed home. ”

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$BRK.A Joins Forces With $BAM to Extend Bets on U.S. Housing

 

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) is extending its bet on the U.S. housing market by forming a venture with Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (BAM/A) as low interest rates, inventory and prices spur a real-estate rebound.

Berkshire’s HomeServices of America Inc. unit will be the majority owner of the venture to manage a U.S. residential real- estate affiliate network, according to a statement on the new company’s website. The firms plan to offer a new franchise brand, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, starting next year. Brookfield’s network has operated under the Prudential Real Estate and Real Living Real Estate brands.”

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New Regulations are Expected to Crimp Lending in the Housing Market

“Mortgage bankers and Realtors are warning that it could become even harder for borrowers to qualify for a home loan early next year as the industry faces a barrage of new rules.

Regulators are preparing to release the language of two rules taking effect in January to set standards for non-abusive lending and require banks to hold a slice of risky mortgages on their books. In addition, U.S. banking overseers must also complete new capital standards mandated in the international Basel III accords next year.”

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Existing Home Sales Drop 1.7%, In Line With Expectations

“Existing home sales declined to 4.75 million in September right in line with expectations.

This was down 1.5 percent.

 

But last month’s reading was revised up to 4.83 million and up 8.1 percent.”

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Fitch Sees Less Robust Housing Growth in 2013

“Fitch Ratings has a call on an improving outlook of the U.S. housing market. The report, titled “U.S. Homebuilding/Construction: The Chalk Line Fall 2012,” talks about the gains being sustained with positive reports on single-family starts, new homes and existing home sales. The report shows that 2012 has so far been well above 2011 levels, but still assume a moderate rise off a very low bottom. Here are some 2012 projections:”

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Deutche Bank: Housing Recovery is Real and the U.S. Economy is Not Far Behind

“Despite some nagging doubts that have remained over the U.S. housing market, consensus is that housing has turned the corner and is recovering.

In his latest note titled The Housing Recovery Is For Real, Deutsche Bank’s Joseph LaVorgna writes that the “residential housing market is in the very early stages of a durable recovery.”

LaVorgna says this recovery in housing is important because housing is what led the U.S. economy into a recession, and is part of the reason the recovery has been so slow. Moreover,  as “a leading indicator of underlying domestic demand,” any improvement in housing suggests that underlying domestic demand should improve as well. From LaVorgna:

“In the second chart below, we show the year-over-year growth rate in residential investment compared to the year-over-year growth rate in non-residential aggregated demand, which is defined as real GDP less inventories less residential investment. There is a four-quarter lead on the former relative to the latter.”

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$HD CEO: Housing is Far From a Real Recovery

” Here’s an interesting housing update from the CEO of Home Depot who was interviewed by Reuters.  He says the housing market is far from a real recovery and that this could be a headfake.  Here are some highlights (via Reuters):

“It’s starting to recover, but we’re a long way away from true recovery,” Blake, 63, told Reuters in a wide-ranging interview that touched on his views of the so-called Fiscal Cliff to why he sees the internet as Home Depot’s next frontier.”

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Canada is About to Join in the Fun of a Housing Bust

” Canada avoided many of the mistakes that the U.S. made in its housing market.

Banking regulations and lending standards have been much tighter, and that has prevented prices from getting completely out of control.

However, top economists including Robert Shiller and David Rosenberg are increasingly sounding alarms that the Canadian housing market is the next bubble and it’s about to burst.”

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Mortgage Applications Rise on Lower Interest Rates

“Applications for U.S. home mortgages surged last week as demand for refinancing rose to the highest level in more than three years, driven by a drop in interest rates to yet another record low, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, jumped 16.6 percent in the week ended Sept 28.

The index of refinancing applications surged 19.6 percent, hitting the highest level since April 2009.

The gauge of loan requests for home purchases – a leading indicator of home sales – also rose, though not as strongly, gaining 3.9 percent.”

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