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Markets Cheer ECB Action on Saving Greece, Temporarily That Is

“The European Central Bank (ECB) has saved Greece from bankruptcy for the time being by securing it interim financing in the form of additional emergency loans from the Bank of Greece, German newspaper Die Welt said on Saturday.”

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Can ECB Deliver?

After the Federal Reserve declined to spike the punchbowl Wednesday, fans of monetary stimulus are now entirely dependent on the European Central Bank for a fix.

In leaving its policies unchanged, the Fed gave investors what they expected, but not what they wanted. Now, all eyes are turning to Frankfurt, where top ECB officials will meet Thursday for their monthly policy discussion.

ECB president Mario Draghi raised the stakes last week when he said the ECB will do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro currency. In a coda that caught the attention of many stimulus-hungry investors, Draghi added: “Believe me, it will be enough.”

But investors who think that Draghi is going to do something big and bold as soon as Thursday morning are much more likely to be let down if he fails to deliver. Beware, this could end in tears.

“We think there is plenty of scope for disappointment,” said John Higgins, senior market economist at Capital Economics. “The ECB’s bark could prove louder than its bite.”

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Timothy Geithner: Congress Can ‘Make Growth Stronger’ In ‘Near Term’

“* EU leaders committed, have the means to resolve crisis – Geithner

* U.S Congress must also do more to boost growth – Geithner

* Expectations mount on ECB action at Thursday policy meeting

Aug 1 (Reuters) – United States Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has called on European leaders to do more to solve the region’s debt crisis, including lowering interest rates for those countries that are undertaking painful reforms.

Interviewed on Bloomberg Television in Los Angeles on Tuesday, Geithner said the euro zone had to take steps including “bringing down interest rates in the countries that are reforming and making sure those banking systems can provide the credit those economies need.”

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Why the FOMC May Engage in More Operation Twist

“The most probable outcome of the FOMC meeting currently under way is the continuation of “Operation Twist” and possibly the extension of the current “exceptionally low… through late 2014” rateguidance to “mid 2015.”

Other policy changes are much less likely. A drop in the rate paid on bank reserves is possible but not preferable because it could destabilize money markets functioning (potentially pushing repo rates deep into negative territory with a sharp drop in liquidity). A UK style policy to lend to banks below market rates (to encourage lending) is also unlikely because of legal limitations and political ramifications of the Fed lending to banks again. And there is almost no chance that any sort of unsterilized asset purchases (QE3) will be announced.”

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Wall Street Now Almost Certain Fed and ECB Will Act

“Markets now overwhelmingly expect significant action from the U.S. and European central banks, according to the latest CNBC Fed Survey.

In the survey of market participants, 89 percent said they believe the European Central Bank will purchase more sovereign debt and 78 percent said they expect the Federal Reserve to undertake additional quantitative easing.”

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Consensus: No QE3 This Week

“Here’s a nice round-up of opinions from the analyst community on whether or not there will be QE3 this week.  I’m really torn here.  The Fed seems to be signalling that they’re more likely to act, but the recent data still isn’t totally consistent with more Fed action.   Most importantly, core inflation is still above 2% and GDP, while weak, was better than expected last week.  We all know it’s comMore viathe WSJ:”

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Harvard’s Feldstein: Select Eurozone Bond Buybacks ‘Dangerous’

“A proposal to give Europe’s bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, a banking license so it can borrow from the European Central Bank (ECB) to buy sovereign bonds from debt-weary nations is a dangerous thing, said Harvard economist Martin Feldstein.

Any bond buybacks should involve a basket of bonds that would include debt issued by healthier countries like France or Germany, as buying debt from troubled countries alone would give governments too much wiggle room to avoid tough-but-necessary fiscal reforms.

“While any central bank must be able to conduct open-market operations to manage liquidity in financial markets, selective purchases of individual country bonds that bear high interest rates because of current and past fiscal profligacy is both unnecessary and dangerous,” Feldstein wrote in a Project Syndicate column. ”

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Investors Seeking Higher Yields Find Subprime Auto Loans Attractive

“Sales of bonds tied to payments on subprime car loans are accelerating at the fastest pace in five years as investors seek high yields amid speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at record lows until mid-2015.

Led by Santander Consumer USA, issuance of $10 billion this year in asset-backed debt linked to vehicle loans to borrowers with spotty credit records compares with $8.2 billion in the same period of 2011, according to Barclays Plc. Top-ranked securities backed by the loans yield between 15 and 25 basis points more than benchmark swap rates, versus 5 to 8 basis points for similar debt of prime borrowers, Deutsche Bank AG data show.”

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Financial Times: Our Digital Subscribers Now Outnumber Print, And Digital Is Half Of The FT’s Revenue

“A milestone reached as the world of old media continues its push in a digital direction: the storied, pink-sheeted daily newspaper the Financial Times, read by 2.1 million readers daily, today said digital subscribers now outnumber those in print, and that digital revenues now account for half of all sales in the FT Group. And what’s more, sales actually grew rather than declined.”

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Study: High-Speed Trading Hurts Long-Term Investors

WASHINGTON—Some of the most heavily traded U.S. stocks might also be among the most expensive to trade, costing investors as much as $2.5 billion a year, according to a New York trading and research firm.

Stocks such as Bank of America Corp., Microsoft Corp., Cisco Systems Inc., and Ford Motor Co. are so popular with high-frequency trading firms that long-term investors often have trouble quickly buying and selling the stocks, according to a report by Pragma Securities LLC.

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Senate Passes Cuts for All but Richest Americans

“WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate has debated, sniped and voted on the politically fraught issue of tax cuts, and next week the House is likely to do it all over again. Still, Americans won’t know until after the November elections how much more of their paychecks will go to the government next year.

House Speaker John Boehner said Thursday that his Republican-led chamber is “more than willing” to make Democrats vote on thePresident Barack Obama’s plan to extend former president George W. Bush’s tax cuts for all but the wealthiest Americans. He also is bringing up the GOP’s proposal to extend the tax cuts for everyone.

The outcome is almost certainly stalemated until the November elections, so leaders of both houses of Congress are turning the House and Senate into campaign stages on one of the defining issues of the presidential and congressional races.”

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Ben Bernanke Talks About Early Childhood Education

It is very important to teach children at a young age what the Fed is so they don’t bother to question it when they grow up…

Thank you very much for the opportunity to address you today. I’m especially pleased as an economist and policymaker to discuss the importance of education to the success of our economy. At the Federal Reserve we spend a lot of time looking at economic data, such as production and employment. In doing so, we try never to forget that these seemingly sterile numbers are, in fact, reflections of the economic aspirations, opportunities, and well-being of millions of Americans. When individuals are denied opportunities to reach their maximum potential, it harms not only those individuals, of course, but also the larger economy, which depends vitally on having a skilled, productive workforce. As a result, we all have a stake in the essential work that you are doing for our children.

So how can we improve the opportunities for all children and give them a chance to succeed in our ever-changing, globalized economy? As the husband of a teacher and an educator myself, as well as a parent and former school board member, I know from personal experience that, for creating opportunity and changing lives, there is no substitute for a quality education. The research shows that effective educations lead to lower rates of poverty, higher lifetime earnings, and greater satisfaction on the job and at home. And specialists in economic development have identified educational attainment as a key source of economic growth and rising incomes in many countries around the world.

Although education and the acquisition of skills is a lifelong process, starting early in life is crucial. Neuroscientists observe that if the first few years of a child’s life include support for healthy development in families and communities, the child is more likely to succeed in school and to contribute to society as an adult. Conversely, without support during these early years, a child is ultimately more likely to drop out of school, earn lower wages, depend on government programs, or be incarcerated.1

Consistent with this research, early childhood education programs aim to nurture healthy development from the earliest years. Programs that provide enriched experiences for children and that also involve parents have shown to benefit children from all backgrounds, but they have the strongest influence on children from disadvantaged environments.2 Importantly, state preschool assessments have shown that early childhood education programs make children better prepared for school, a precursor of future success.3

The benefits of early childhood programs are not just short-term in nature. Careful studies demonstrate that early interventions can have a positive effect on young children from low-income families that lasts well into adulthood. For example, analysis of one program showed that children who attended a high-quality half-day preschool program at ages 3 and 4 were, at age 40, more economically successful–for example, more likely to own their own homes–than nonparticipants in a control group.4 In other evaluations, long-term benefits were demonstrated for a full-day early childhood education program starting before age 1 and for a nurse-based home visiting program.

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