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The Aussie Dollar Hits Monthly Highs in Anticipation U.S. Employment Data is Getting Better

“Australia’s dollar touched the highest level in more than a month on speculation U.S. data today will show the labor market in the world’s biggest economy is improving, supporting demand for riskier assets.

The so-called Aussie headed for a fourth weekly advance, the longest winning streak since August, as Asian shares rose. Gains in the Australian and New Zealand currencies were limited as Greece’s lawmakers squabbled over austerity measures needed to secure a bailout and keep the nation in the euro.

“Investors are getting more optimistic about the outlook for the U.S. economy,” said Marito Ueda, senior managing director in Tokyo at FX Prime Corp. (8711), a currency-margin company. “The risk-on tone across the market is supporting the Aussie.”

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Commodities Decline B4 U.S. Employment Report, Euro Drops Below 1.29

“Commodities snapped two days of gains before a report forecast to show the U.S. isn’t adding jobs fast enough to cut the unemployment rate. The euro weakened, while stocks and equity-index futures were little changed.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 raw materials slid 0.4 percent at 7:45 a.m. in New York, with copper falling 0.7 percent and oil dropping 0.8 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.1 percent and S&P 500 futures added less than 0.1 percent. The euro declined 0.5 percent to $1.2883 as the dollar strengthened against all but two of its 16 major counterparts.”

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Investors Flock to Safety in the U.S. Dollar Overnight

“The dollar rose for the first time in three days versus the euro as investors sought the safety of the U.S. currency after manufacturing data from Norway and Sweden added to speculation Europe’s debt crisis is slowing growth.

The U.S. currency gained against all except two of its 16 major counterparts as economists said as American report today will show manufacturing growth slowed in October. The yen fell before the Bank of Japan releases minutes tomorrow of its October meeting amid speculation the central bank will ease monetary policy. The impact of Hurricane Sandy on U.S. gross domestic product is still being assessed with some estimates that the storm caused as much as $50 billion of damage.”

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The Aussie Dollar Rises Near Two Week Highs on China PMI Data

Australia’s dollar traded near its strongest level in two weeks after an improvement in manufacturing gauges in China, the South Pacific nation’s biggest trading partner.

The so-called Aussie rose for a third day against the yen ahead of next week’s policy decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Demand for the Australian and New Zealand dollars was limited as investors awaited the last jobs report in the U.S. before the presidential election.

“We’ve been seeing a pickup in the Chinese economy,” said Takuya Kawabata, an analyst at Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo, a unit of Japan’s largest currency margin company. “The improved sentiment about China can create upward pressure for the Aussie.”

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Optimism Rises Over Greece and Portugal, Euro Rises

 

“The euro rose for a second day versus the dollar and yen amid speculation Portugal’s parliament is coming closer to agreeing on a budget and as euro-area finance chiefs hold a conference call today on Greece.

The 17-nation currency strengthened against 13 of its 16 major counterparts before Portuguese lawmakers hold an initial vote on the 2013 budget proposal. The dollar fell after Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said yesterday monetary policy is currently “too tight,” speaking as the northeast U.S. assessed the damage caused by the tropical cyclone Sandy. Norway’s krone rose after the central bank said it won’t buy foreign currency.

“Positive news from the parliaments of Greece and Portugal — that could be supportive for the euro,” said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. “The perception that the Fed could leave policy more accommodative for longer on the back of the rebuild because of the floods is also supportive. If it’s good for risk appetite, you could see it pushing the euro a little bit higher.”

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The Yen Climbs Despite BoJ Stimulus

The BoJ release a new stimulus program into the economy; however, investors were not impressed and the Yen climb against most of its peer currencies. Not what the BoJ was looking for.

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The Aussie and New Zealand Dollars Rally as Investors Doubt Stimulus Action

 

“The Australian and New Zealand dollars gained versus most of their major peers as investors pared bets that the countries’ central banks will lower interest rates.

The so-called Aussie and kiwi slid versus the yen after the Bank of Japan (8301) expanded its asset-purchase fund, its main policy tool, by 11 trillion yen ($138 billion) to 66 trillion yen. Demand for the higher-yielding currencies recovered after being limited earlier amid concern Sandy, the super-storm ravaging the American Northeast, will hurt the U.S. economy.

“Our house view is that the RBA will push a rate cut to December,” said Lee Wai Tuck, currency strategist at Forecast Pte in Singapore, referring to the Reserve Bank of Australia. “I’m pretty surprised by the resilience in the Aussie.”

Australia’s dollar climbed 0.3 percent to $1.0364 as of 6:07 p.m. in Sydney and fell 0.1 percent to 82.40 yen. The New Zealand currency added 0.4 percent to 82.20 U.S. cents. It declined as much as 0.6 percent before trading little changed at 65.34 yen.

Overnight index swaps data compiled by Bloomberg showed traders estimate there is a 59 percent that the RBA will cut its key rate to 3 percent from 3.25 percent at its Nov. 6 meeting, compared with a 64 percent probability yesterday. The odds for New Zealand’s central bank to lower its benchmark, currently held at 2.5 percent, in December by the same amount fell to 14 percent from 18 percent.”

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The Aussie Dollar Falls on U.S. Election Prospects

Australia’s dollar fell as declines in Asian shares and concern over the outcome of the U.S. presidential election sapped demand for higher-yielding assets.

New Zealand’s dollar weakened against most major peers as U.S. President Barack Obamaand Republican Mitt Romney entered the final stretch of the presidential contest, where opinion polls have tightened. Losses in the so-called Aussie were limited as traders reduced bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates at a meeting next week.

“If we get polls that still show that Romney and Obama look to be pretty neck-and-neck, then I think that leads to uncertainty,” said Ray Attrill, Sydney-based global co-head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. “There is potential for some negative price action in the risk market. In that case I can see the Aussie heading back down towards $1.03.”

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The Euro Drops on Shrinking EU PMI for October

“The euro weakened for a second day against the dollar and yen after reports showed services and manufacturing in the region shrank in October more than economists predicted as the debt crisis stifled growth.

The 17-nation currency fell versus all except two of its 16 major counterparts as the Ifo institute in Munich said German business confidence dropped to the lowest level in more than two years. The Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to the highest in almost two weeks before Federal Reserve officials end a two-day policy meeting. Sweden’s krona slid for a fourth day against the dollar after a report showed consumer confidence worsened.

“We’ve had some bad news and the euro has gone down,” said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. “Given the extent of the poor news that’s been around, I think it’s still amazing that the euro has been so resilient.”

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The Aussie Dollar Lifts on Inflation Data and China PMI Results

“The Australian dollar climbed against all of its major peers after a private report signaled that a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing is abating, improving prospects for exports to Asia’s biggest economy.

The so-called Aussie snapped a four-day drop after data showed a faster-than-estimated increase in Australia’s consumer price index, easing expectations the Reserve Bank will cutinterest rates. New Zealand’s currency was 0.3 percent from a one-month low as Asian stocks extended global declines.”

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The British Pound Bounces on Expectations The U.K. Has Exited Recession

 

“The pound strengthened the most in more than three months against the euro as stocks rose on optimism the U.K. economy pulled out of recession in the third quarter, boosting demand for British assets.

Britain’s currency rose against all but one of its 16 major counterparts even after a report showed the nation’s manufacturing industry unexpectedly slumped in October. Gross domestic product expanded 0.6 percent last quarter from the previous three months, according to a Bloomberg survey before the data tomorrow. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said yesterday the data may confirm a “zig-zag” pattern of recovery in the U.K. Gilts fell.”

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The Hong Kong Monetary Authority Tries Again to Weaken a Rising Currency

“The Hong Kong Monetary Authority sold its own currency for a second time in a week to stem appreciation after it traded near the upper limit of a 29-year- old peg to the U.S. dollar.

The central bank bought $855 million at a rate of HK$7.75 per U.S. dollar, the authority said in an e-mailed statement today. That followed a $603 million intervention on Oct. 19, when it stepped into the market for the first time since 2009. The Hong Kong dollar was at HK$7.7503 as of 6:36 p.m. local time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, with local financial markets closed for a public holiday.”

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Forex Carry Trades Show Optimism is Waning on Europe’s Ability to Stem the Sovereign Debt Crisis

“The $4 trillion-a-day foreign- exchange market is losing confidence in central banks’ abilities to boost a struggling world economy.

Rather than sparking bets on growth, the JPMorgan Chase & Co. G7 Volatility Index, which more than doubled in 2007 to 2008 before policy makers employed extraordinary measures to address faltering global expansion, has dropped to a five-year low. While small foreign-exchange swings historically favor the strategy of borrowing in low-yielding currencies to buy those with higher returns, a UBS AG index that tracks profits from the so-called carry trade has fallen to the lowest level since 2011.”

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The Yen Continues Its Fall as Exports Dwindle, Stimulus Expected from BoJ

“The yen fell for an eighth day against the dollar, the longest streak in seven years, as a report showing Japan’s exports fell the most since the 2011 earthquake fueled bets the central bank will add more stimulus.

Japan’s currency dropped at least 0.6 percent versus all 16 of its major counterparts after Economy Minister Seiji Maehara pressed the Bank of Japan yesterday for more action to boost the economy. The euro rose after Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy extended an electoral majority in his home region of Galicia, vindicating the government’s austerity program. South Africa’s rand appreciated against all of its major peers.”

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Disappointment Over the EU Debt Crisis Summit Sends the Euro Lower

“The euro declined for a second day against the dollar on speculation this week’s European Union summit in Brussels will fail to provide clarity on potential financial aid for Spain.

The 17-nation currency dropped for the first time in seven days versus the yen after Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said his nation doesn’t feel under any pressure to ask for a bailout, fueling concern the debt crisis will be prolonged. The yen rose after French President Francois Hollande said leaders at the EU meeting didn’t discuss more assistance for Spain, spurring demand for safer assets. The pound gained against the euro after the U.K. budget deficit narrowed.

“There is some disappointment over the latest EU summit,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. “That’s why the euro is a bit lower. We need some fresh good news to get things going further. It’s not apparent today.”

The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.3047 at 7:48 a.m. in New York time after dropping 0.4 percent yesterday. The shared currency depreciated 0.3 percent to 103.27 yen. The yen strengthened 0.2 percent to 79.15 per dollar, trimming this week’s decline to 0.9 percent.”

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The Aussie Dollar Has Its Biggest Monthly Gain on an Improving Global Outlook

Australia’s dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain in more than a month as signs of improvement in the global economy supported demand for riskier investments.

The so-called Aussie traded 0.4 percent from its strongest in three weeks before data today forecast to show U.S. sales of existing homes hovered near a two-year high. Figures yesterday showed gains in China’s industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment. The appeal of the Australian and New Zealand currencies was also supported after Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, said it has boosted holdings in the South Pacific nations’ assets.

“Recent data have been easing pessimism over growth in the U.S. and China, supporting the Aussie,” said Kumiko Gervaise, an analyst at Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo. “There is a risk that the Australian dollar has gained too much in a short period of time.”

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The Euro Hits a One Month High on Crisis Optimism, Moody’s Let’s Spain Keep it Investment Grade Rating

 

“The euro strengthened to a one-month high against the dollar after Spain kept its investment grade credit rating from Moody’s Investors Service, spurring a rally in Spanish and Italian bonds.

The 17-nation currency appreciated for a fifth day versus the yen amid speculation European Union leaders meeting in Brussels tomorrow will reach an agreement on providing more help forGreece. The dollar weakened before a U.S. report that economists said will show house building climbed last month, damping demand for safer assets. The pound rose against the greenback after U.K. jobless claims unexpectedly declined.

“It’s about potential relief with regard to Spain” and optimism that Greece will receive additional bailout payments, said Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK) in London. “Those two factors are the key to understanding why the euro is going higher.”

The euro gained 0.5 percent to $1.3116 at 7:01 a.m. New York time after rising to $1.3129, the highest level since Sept. 17. The common currency advanced 0.2 percent to 103.22 yen, extending its rally over the past week to 2.5 percent. The dollar declined 0.3 percent to 78.70 yen.

Moody’s said yesterday it kept Spain’s credit rating at Baa3, one step above junk, as the risk that the nation would lose market access had fallen because of the European Central Bank’s willingness to purchase its bonds.”

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