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Monthly Archives: June 2014

June Marks 5 Years as the Offical End of the Great Recession, Are You Celebrating?

“It’s June 2014, and that means it’s been five years since the Great Recession officially ended. If you’re not ready to celebrate this milestone, you’re certainly not alone.

The majority of Americans still rate economic conditions as “poor” and for good reason: This jobs recovery is the slowest on record, wages are barely rising, home prices are still below their peak and more Americans are using food stamps than ever before.

Main Street America still doesn’t feel recovered, because, quite frankly, it’s not.

So how much longer will the healing process take? Economists surveyed by CNNMoney expect a full recovery is still two to three years away.

“The labor market is the scar on the economy that remains from the Great Recession, the financial and housing crises. It may be fading, but it is still clearly visible and will remain for years to come,” said Sean Snaith, economics professor at the University of Central Florida.

Interactive: Why you don’t feel recovered

Here’s how far we’ve come: Technically, the Great Recession ended in June 2009. That determination was made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, an independent group of economists that has officially called the beginning and end of business cycles since the 1920s.

Why pick that date? Essentially, that’s when the bleeding stopped and the slow healing process began. After that point, economic activity started picking up. Auto sales started rising, and the manufacturing sector slowdown ended. Home prices hit their bottom and finally started rising again, and the stock market came back to life.

Now, five years later, U.S. economic activity and the stock market are at all-time highs. States like North Dakota and Texas are benefiting from energy-related booms. Jobs in health care keep growing, and professional office positions are back. There are also more low-wage jobs at restaurants and bars.

But the recovery was far from a quick bounce-back. It’s been more like a long, slow slog, and here’s the key missing component: The broader job market…..”

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BoA Expects Basing and Bear Trends to Continue for Treasury Yields

“US Treasury yields are on the verge of basing and resuming their long term bear trends, warns BofAML’s MacNeil Curry, as Treasury volatility (MOVE Index) appears poised for a reversal higher

Via BofAML’s MacNeil Curry,

Treasury yields poised to base 

US Treasury yields are on the verge of basing and resuming their long term bear trends. While we need to see a 10yr yield close above 2.568% to confirm, we reiterate our comment: THE LONG-TERM BEAR TREND IS POISED TO EMERGE FROM HIBERNATION. While such a turn would be supportive of our bullish US $ view against the likes of € and CHF (we are long the US $ against both) , it should also help push many $/EMFX pairs higher as well. The reason being is that Treasury volatility is also poised for a significant turn to the topside. Indeed, a turn higher in US yields should be the catalyst for such a turn in vol. In such an environment, $/ZAR is particularly well placed to benefit as it has just resumed its long term bull trend. 

Chart of the week: 10yr Treasury yields at the basing zone

US 10yr Treasury yields have reached the 2.420%/2.346% basing zone. From this zone we look for a base and resumption of the long term bear trend…”

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Jeremy Siegel expects bond yields to rise if data comes in stronger

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