History Suggests Higher Indices in December

“It was an incredible November for stocks in what’s been an amazing year for the market. Will the rally continue in December?

The Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq both ended November with a gain of about 3.5%. The S&P 500 advanced almost 3%. The Dow and S&P 500 are near record highs, while the Nasdaq rose above 4,000 last week for the first time in 13 years.

So far this year, the S&P 500 has soared nearly 27% in the latest phase of a bull market that started in March, 2009.

If history is any guide, stocks should head even higher in December. Over the past 30 years, the S&P 500 has gained in December 80% of the time, according to data from Schaeffer’s Investment Research.

Stocks often benefit in the last month of the year as fund managers bulk up on the best performers in an attempt to “window dress” portfolios.

But with prices at record highs, there are growing concerns that stock valuations are becoming stretched. The S&P 500 is currently trading at more than 15 times next year’s earnings estimates, which is slightly above the long-term average…..”

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