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Monthly Archives: April 2013

To Worry or Not to Worry Over $AAPL’s Stock Price

“Apple is in the news for losing its rank for a time on Wednesday as the most valuable publicly-traded U.S. stock. And now Henry Blodget — who first became famous for the gap between his bullish reports on tech stocks and his bearish emails about them — is touting seven reasons why Apple is a buy.

But I think all those reasons are wrong and the stock has further to fall.

Apple fell $23 a share — dipping below $400 on April 17. According to Bloomberg, one of its audio-chip suppliers, Cirrus Logic, produced too much inventory — which analysts concluded meant that iPhone sales could fall short of analysts’ expectations.

Vernon Essi, Jr., an analyst at Needham & Co., wrote in a research report, “We blame Apple for losing its mobility mojo. This was simply an inventory overbuild for the iPhone 5 relative to Apple’s forecast.”

But this has not stopped Henry Blodget’s Business Insider from arguing that investors should buy Apple shares. According to the SEC, in 2000, Blodget issued a very bullish analyst report while at Merrill Lynch on a company called 24/7. The next day, he wrote an email claiming the company was “a pos [piece of shit].” This helped get him banned from the securities industry.

And now Blodget is touting Apple as a buy – citing seven reasons. Here’s why I think his argument does not hold water…..”

Full article

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Stop Worrying About the Death of the Petro Dollar

“In July 1944, delegates from 44 nations met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire – the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference – and agreed to “peg” their currencies to the U.S. dollar, the only currency strong enough to meet the rising demands for international currency transactions.

Member nations were required to establish a parity of their national currencies in terms of the US dollar, the “peg”, and to maintain exchange rates within plus or minus one percent of parity, the “band.”

What made the dollar so attractive to use as an international currency was each US dollar was based on 1/35th of an ounce of gold, and the gold was to held in the US Treasury. The value of gold being fixed by law at 35 US dollars an ounce made the value of each dollar very stable.

The US dollar, at the time, was considered better then gold for many reasons:

  • The strength of the U.S. economy
  • The fixed relationship of the dollar to gold at $35 an ounce
  • The commitment of the U.S. government to convert dollars into gold at that price
  • The dollar earned interest
  • The dollar was more flexible than gold

There’s a lesson not learned that reverberates throughout monetary history; when government, any government, comes under financial pressure they cannot resist printing money and debasing their currency to pay for debts.

Lets fast forward a few years…

The Vietnam War was going to cost the US $500 Billion. The stark reality was the US simply could not print enough money to cover its war costs, it’s gold reserve had only $30 billion, most of its reserve was already backing existing US dollars, and the government refused to raise taxes.

In the 1960s President Lyndon B. Johnson’s administration declared war on poverty and put in place its Great Society programs:

  • Head Start
  • Job Corps
  • Food stamps
  • Medicaid
  • Funded education
  • Job training
  • Direct food assistance
  • Direct medical assistance

More than four million new recipients signed up for welfare.

During the Nixon administration welfare programs underwent major expansions. States were required to provide food stamps. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) consolidated aid for aged, blind, and disabled persons. The Earned Income Credit provided the working poor with direct cash assistance in the form of tax credits and welfare rolls kept growing

Bretton Woods collapsed in 1971 when Nixon severed (known as the Nixon Shock because the decision was made without consulting the other signatories of Bretton Woods, even his own State Department wasn’t consulted or forewarned) the link between the dollar and gold – the US dollar was now a fully floating fiat currency and the government had no problem printing more money. With gold finally demonetized the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the world’s central banks were now free from having to defend their gold reserves and a fixed dollar price of gold.

The Fed could finally concentrate on achieving its mandate – full employment with stable prices – by employing targeted levels of inflation. The Fed’s  ‘Great Experiment’ had begun – the objective being a leveling out of the business cycle by keeping the economy in a state of permanent boom – gold’s “chains of fiscal discipline” had been removed.

But there was a problem – because of the massive printing of the US dollar to cover war and welfare reform costs Nixon worried about the strength of his country’s currency – how do you keep the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency, how do you keep demand strong, if one you remove gold’s backing and two print it into oblivion?

Recognizing that the US, and the rest of the world, was going to need and use more oil, a lot more oil, and that Saudi Arabia wanted to sell the world’s largest economy (by far the US) more oil, Nixon and Saudi Arabia came to an agreement in 1973 whereby Saudi oil could only be purchased in US dollars.  In exchange for Saudi Arabia’s willingness to denominate their oil sales exclusively in U.S. dollars, the United States offered weapons and protection of their oil fields from neighboring nations.

Nixon also abolished the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) international capital constraints on American domestic banks. This allowed Saudi Arabia and other Arab producers to recycle their petrodollars into New York banks.

Global oil sales in U.S. dollars caused an immediate and strong global demand for US dollars – the ‘Petrodollar’ was born.

By 1975 all OPEC members had agreed to sell their oil only in US dollars in exchange for weapons and military protection.

“In a nutshell, any country that wants to purchase oil from an oil producing country has to do so in U.S. dollars. This is a long standing agreement within all oil exporting nations, aka OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The UK for example, cannot simply buy oil from Saudi Arabia by exchanging British pounds. Instead, the UK must exchange its pounds for U.S. dollars…”

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Rail Traffic Continues to Fall

“Recent rail trends have weakened substantially from very strong levels earlier this year.  The latest weekly reading came in at 3.3% year over year, but continues a trend of low single digit readings.  This latest data brings the 12 week average to 4.4%.  That’s still a healthy level, but well off the March high of 3.6%.  In this environment I guess any growth is good growth so this has to go down as a moderate positive for the economy even though the trend is negative.

Here’s more via AAR…”

Full report

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Fitch Strips UK of Triple-A Rating, Austerity Debate Deepens

“Britain’s credit standing took a further blow on Friday when Fitch Ratings became the second major international agency to strip the country of its top-notch credit rating.

The move is an embarrassment for Britain’s Conservative-led government which promised to protect the country’s rating when it took power in 2010, and will heighten the debate about whether austerity is still the right approach.

Fitch trimmed the rating to AA-plus from AAA, citing a weaker economic and fiscal outlook. But it returned the outlook to “stable,” removing the threat of any further rating action, at least in the near term.

“The fiscal space to absorb further adverse economic and financial shocks is no longer consistent with a ‘AAA’ rating,” it said in a statement.

Economic stagnation has pushed the government’s deficit reduction program several years off track, leading critics to argue the government should focus less on the deficit and more on growth. Even the International Monetary Fund, once a key ally in the case for fiscal austerity, has urged Britain to consider slowing the pace of deficit cuts.

But although sterling fell in the immediate aftermath, analysts said the downgrade was likely to have limited impact on debt markets or the government’s economic policy.

“The downgrade only tells us what was already known: that fiscal consolidation has ground to a halt and that the growth outlook is poor,” said Rob Wood, UK economist at Berenberg Bank.

Moody’s was the first agency to downgrade Britain in February and Standard & Poor’s has said there is at least a one-in-three chance it will follow suit….”

Full article

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Big Blue Suggests a Grim Future Ahead

“IBM’s poor earnings performance in the first quarter likely foretells a rough time ahead for the stock market.

In an after-the-bell report Thursday, the information technology leader missed narrowly on bottom-line profit but widely on top-line revenue. Profit of $3 a share missed Wall Street estimates by a nickel, while revenue of $23.41 billion fell short of hopes for $24.62, a 5 percent whiff.

As a result, traders punished IBM in Friday action, with the shares closing down more than 8 percent.

IBM has been underperforming the market the way it is, dropping 10.9 percent over the past month while the Standard & Poor’s 500 has risen about 0.2 percent.

The earnings report may well confirm weakness both in the company and broader market.

IBM earnings, in fact, have served as a highly efficient proxy for market movement going all the way back 10 years, according to research from Bespoke Investment Group.

While many investors focus on Alcoa because it kicks off earnings season, as a barometer, IBM has proved more efficient.The company’s stock movement immediately after earnings has had a stunning 75 percent success rate in predicting market movement over the next five weeks.

More recently, the correlation has been perfect over the past five quarters. In the three times IBM rose after earnings, the S&P 500 also gained. Likewise, the correlation held in the two quarters when the company’s stock fell.

In the 10-year period, the trend has been more accurate when IBM has a positive earnings reaction, with the market up 80 percent of the time. Negative earnings have correlated with market movement at a 70 percent rate, Bespoke found.

“Part of the explanation lies in the fact that IBM generates more than half of its revenues from its services unit, which has a presence in practically every S&P 500 company,” Bespoke said. “Any weakness in the performance of corporate America (or even the corporate world) will likely show up in the results of IBM.” …”

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Superbug Bacteria Enters Food Supply at an Alarming Rate

Always order your pink slime well done if you must indulge.

Just because a place tells you on the menu that is is freshly ground or of ‘Black Angus’ quality does not mean your getting quality product.

Truth in menus is dead and your health is seriously at risk!

Full article

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Capital Economics Cautions of a Crisis Out of Turkey and Venezuela

“With the bloom coming off the emerging markets rose, one economic model has drawn a circle around two countries that stand the greatest risk of falling into a crisis.

David Rees, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said the firm has developed five criteria to identify whether a country’s economy has overheated to the point where it is threatening to develop into a full-scale problem.

The good news is that the Capital model finds no country in “immediate threat of crisis.”

But the bad news is that at least two countries are tilting in that direction and could pose danger to investors.

Rees identifies the endangered duo as Turkey and Venezuela.

Turkey’s stock market has surged 7.3 percent in 2013 and is up 42 percent over the past 12 months. The country outperformed virtually all other emerging markets in 2012 as it modernizes its economy and pushes pro-growth programs.

Venezuela’s markets tell an even more robust story, with the Caracas exchange booming 37 percent this year and more than 200 percent over the past 12 months. While some feared the rally might falter due to political upheaval after President Hugo Chavez’s death, the market has gone on its merry way.

Despite the powerful gains, Rees advises investors to watch five factors: Growing current account deficits; rapid credit expansion; surging short-term external debt; bubbling stock market prices (50 percent is considered a red flag); and large growth in real exchange rates…..”

Full article

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DOW 16k in the Cards? Very Bullish Investment Managers Say it is Quite Possible

“…..This week we saw our first real market rattling in awhile.

Commodities got absolutely hammered, and the renewed deflationary chill law to a series of violent up and down swings, resulting in the worst week in some time.

Also, US data is softening (and things aren’t hot in Europe or China either).

And yet. At least as of very recently, big money managers are bullish on historical levels.

From Barron’s cover story:

The stock market isn’t the only thing that has set records this spring. Barron’s semiannual Big Money poll of professional investors also is setting a record — for bullishness, that is. In our latest survey, 74% of money managers identify themselves as bullish or very bullish about the prospects for U.S. stocks — an all-time high for Big Money, going back more than 20 years. What’s more, about a third of managers expect the Dow Jones industrials to scale the 16,000 level by the middle of next year, notwithstanding a dismal week of selling that left the blue-chip index at 14,547.51 on Friday…..”

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$ISRG Has a Growing Problem With da Vinci

Some 500k plus surgeries have been performed with robotic technologies from Intuitive Surgical. Unfortunately, there is a growing number of cases where routine surgeries are resulting in complications and even death. Lawsuits are beginning to mount…..

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Good News on America’s Debt Front

“A couple of updates …

From Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips: The Federal Budget Deficit: Shrinking Faster:

The federal deficit continues to shrink. Through the first six months of the fiscal year, revenues have come in higher than expected, while spending has come in lower than expected. As a result we are lowering our deficit forecast for the current and next two fiscal years.

Earlier this year we lowered our FY2013 deficit forecast from $900bn (5.6% of GDP) to $850bn (5.3%). In light of recent trends, we are lowering it again to $775bn (4.8%). Spending in the fiscal year to date is lower than a year ago and the nominal growth rate is lower than it has been in decades. Revenues have also exceeded expectations, with a 12% gain fiscal year to date. What is more notable is that the strength in revenues preceded the payroll tax hike at the start of the year, and the spending decline does not seem to reflect sequestration, which has just started to take effect.

We expect the improvement to continue for the next few years….”

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The FBI Has Some ‘Splaining’ To Do Over Boston Bombers

“The FBI needs to explain in more detail why it failed to realize that the older Boston bombing suspect, Tamerlan Tsarnaev, was a terrorism risk.

By the FBI’s own admission, the FBI was warned about Tsarnaev in 2011 by a foreign government (presumably Russia).

The foreign government told the FBI that Tsarnaev had become “a follower of radical Islam and a strong believer and that he had changed drastically … as he prepared to leave the United States for travel to the country’s region to join unspecificied underground groups.”

In response to this warning, the FBI says it checked databases and interviewed Tsarnaev and other family members in the summer of 2011 but found no evidence of “terrorism activity.”

Then the FBI says it “requested more information” about Tsarnaev from the foreign government but never received it.

Less than two years later, Tsarnaev is suspected of masterminding a successful terrorist attack on the city of Boston that killed three people and injured nearly 200.

So the FBI has some questions to answer.

Namely:

  • Given the explicit warning, why didn’t the FBI continue to monitor Tsarnaev?
  • Why didn’t the FBI follow up with the foreign government when it didn’t get the additional information it requested?
  • How common is a warning from a foreign government about a specific person like this? Does the FBI get thousands of them?
  • What made the FBI effectively clear Tsarnaev — and what might the FBI change  to avoid making this mistake again?
  • Will the FBI conduct a full investigation into what happened?

Here’s the key section of the FBI’s statement….”

Full article

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Read the Tweets of Suspected Boston Bomber Dzhokhar A. Tsarnae

Gawker.com has cracked open the tweets of one of the suspected bombers…

“A cached profile photo that matches his picture, and tweets from other users he’s interacted with suggest that this is the twitter account of 19-year-old Dzhokhar A. Tsarnaev, the fugitive suspect #2 in the Boston Marathon bombings: @J_tsar. The account is listed under the name “Jahar,” which is what classmates called him because his full name was hard to pronounce.

Surprisingly, Tsarnaev has been active on Twitter since the bombing. His last tweet was on Wednesday, two days after he is alleged to have helped carry out the Marathon bombing…”

Full article and tweets

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Documentary: Standing Army

The U.S. is largely a Christian nation that goes by the religious motto of “Do onto others as you would have them do onto you.”

This country was founded for many reasons, of which do not seem to be upheld by our behavior.

Call it human nature, call it…. manipulation by a few. It is your duty as a citizen to be informed and to insist we adhere to a moral compass.

Otherwise, your patriotism and unspoken support of our behavior are complicit in allowing Devil like behavior to reign over this world.

Cheers on your weekend!

Click here for documentary

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCWdCKPtnYE 450 300]

 

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U.S. House Passes CISPA, Obama Said to Veto Bill

Source

“The US House of Representatives  passed the Cyber Intelligence Sharing and Protection Act (CISPA) on 18 April, by a margin of 288 to 127, despite President Barack Obama’s veto threat.

CISPA, which was approved by the House last year, allows the US government and authorities to have access to private companies’ cyber threat information.

In an official statement, the US government recognised the importance of disclosing cyber security data in order to prevent and respond to malicious activities.

However, “the Administration still seeks additional improvements and if the bill, as currently crafted, were presented to the President, his senior advisors would recommend that he veto the bill”, the White House said.”

Full article

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Market Update

U.S. equities managed to follow the lead of overseas markets and go green after a volatile week of downside action.

The DOW remains in negative territory, but not by much as $IBM weighs on the index. The NASDAQ and S&P show the bounce back with upside by as much as 1%.

Volume is low, gold and oil are rebounding along with equities.

Currently leading the market higher are conglomerates, consumer cyclicals, healthcare, transportation, and capital goods. Financials are doing alright while technology remains weak.

Leading the downside are the miners and ag stocks.

Europe managed to close higher than earlier unchanged trade action.

Market update

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIylUcGDi-Y 450 300]

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