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Monthly Archives: February 2013

$HTZ Posts Better Than expected Numbers, Company Expects a Strong 2013

“(Reuters) – Hertz Global Holdings Inc reported a quarterly loss due to costs related to its acquisition of Dollar Thrifty, but adjusted profit beat analysts’ expectations and the car rental company forecast strong results for 2013 on higher pricing.

Hertz forecast adjusted earnings of $1.82 to $1.92 per share for 2013 on revenue of $10.85 billion to $10.95 billion.

Analysts on average expect earnings of $1.78 per share on revenue of $10.79 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Hertz is off to a “fast start” for the year, Chief Executive Mark Frissora said in a statement.

Car rental revenue per transaction day at U.S. airports rose 6 percent for Hertz and 2.6 percent for Dollar Thrifty in January, Frissora said.

This compares with a 1.6 percent increase for Hertz in December and 4.6 percent for Dollar Thrifty.

The car rental industry, tied closely to airline traffic and hotel bookings, has benefited from recovering business and travel in the United States.

Pricing in the U.S. commercial business, which serves corporate customers at airports, has been under pressure in recent quarters as the major players try to attract more customers by offering lower prices.

To diversify away from airport rentals, Hertz fought a long battle with rival Avis Budget Group Incover Dollar Thrifty, which serves the leisure car rental market.

After more than two years of first making a public offer, Hertz acquired Dollar Thrifty for $2.6 billion in late 2012 after agreeing to give up 29 Dollar Thrifty airport locations and sell its low-cost Advantage brand….”

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$GM Ditches $VZ and Picks Up $T for OnStar Service

“NEW YORK (Reuters) – General Motors Co has chosen AT&T Inc to provide high-speed wireless service for its 2015 car models, dropping its long-term provider Verizon Wireless.

OnStar – best known for connecting drivers to live operators who provide directions or summon emergency help after an accident – will start using AT&T in its 2015 models, which go on sale in mid-2014.

The companies will discuss their partnership on Monday at the Mobile World Congress show in Barcelona.

GM is hoping to boost car sales and OnStar subscriptions by expanding its offering to include advanced applications such as video streaming for passengers for most of its Chevrolet, Buick, GMC and Cadillac models.

It is also looking into possibilities such as wirelessly sending customers alerts about possible engine problems or sending data or even video from a car to the owner’s mobile device to show what’s going on next to the vehicle in case of any problems, according to Phil Abram, a GM executive director.

For their part both AT&T and Verizon Wireless, a venture of Verizon Communications and Vodafone Group Plc , have been ramping up efforts to expand their services beyond cellphones as they seek to continue growing in a market in which most people already have smartphones.

GM said that Verizon Wireless, which has been the company’s wireless provider since 1996, would still support OnStar services for all existing GM vehicles and any new models that come out before the 2015 models are launched….”

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Hurricane Sandy Helps $LOW to Post Better Than Expected Earnings, Company Guides Higher

“(Reuters) – Lowe’s Cos Inc’s quarterly results beat analysts’ estimates on Monday as sales benefited from rebuilding after Hurricane Sandy and the retailer’s own efforts to improve product selection and customer service.

The results prompted the world’s No. 2 home improvement chain to forecast higher revenue in the current fiscal year. Lowe’s said it expected total sales to rise about 4 percent from $50.52 billion in year ended on February 1.

The company also forecast a 3.5 percent increase in fiscal-year sales at stores open at least a year.

Lowe’s, which has lagged behind larger rival Home Depot , is in the middle of a makeover. It has closed locations, curbed openings, cut jobs, streamlined its supply chain and invested in its stores and its online business.

Home Depot plans to report its results on Tuesday….”

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PIMCO and Investco Agree That TIPS are What You Want to Own

“At a time when the bond market expects inflation to stay at about the past decade’s average, the biggest buyers of government debt say they need protection from rising consumer prices as central banks focus on growth.

Pacific Investment Management Co. and Invesco Ltd. say growing central-bank tolerance of inflation means securities with interest or principal tied to consumer prices are the ones to own. Global expectations indicated by the gap between yields on so-called linkers and government bonds reached a 21-month high of 1.70 percent, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. Economists in Bloomberg surveys forecast consumer-price gains of 2.72 percent in 2013, in line with the 10-year average.

After four years of stimulating economies, central bankers are starting to see signs of accelerating growth, spurring some bond investors to prepare for a rise in yields from record lows. Index-linked securities are favored because sovereign-debt returns are being erased by what little inflation there is.

“There’s an element of central banks, whether they say it or not, being more relaxed about allowing inflation to rise,” Paul Mueller, a London-based fund manager at Invesco Asset Management, a unit of Invesco Ltd. (IVZ), which manages $713 billion, said in a telephone interview Feb. 19. “While I don’t think we are going to see inflation escaping to very high levels, it does make sense to have protection.”

Global Stimulus…”

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The Fed Has Yet to Take a Bow for Stimulating Job Growth in Housing and Autos

“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has something to tout before Congress in hearings this week: job growth in the auto and housing industries.

Consumers rely on loans to buy cars and homes, so these segments of the economy are among the most responsive to Bernanke’s strategy of holding interest rates low and pressing on with bond purchases of $85 billion a month.

“The rate-sensitive sectors, most notably housing and autos, are kicking into a higher gear,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “This reflects the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy and resulting rock-bottom interest rates,” along with “working off the excesses of the boom and bubble.”

Bernanke and his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee have pledged to continue buying bonds until the labor market improves “substantially.” Climbing employment in construction and vehicle manufacturing bolsters the case that asset purchases can help spur the improvement….”

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Hedge Funds Cut Gold Bets The Most Since 2007

Hedge funds cut bets on a rally in gold by the most since 2007 and became the most bearish ever on sugar and coffee as concern that the Federal Reserve will slow U.S. stimulus programs drove prices for raw materials to the biggest loss this year.

Money managers and other large speculators reduced their net-long position in gold futures and options by 40 percent in the week ended Feb. 19 to 42,318, the biggest drop since July 31, 2007, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Wagers across 18 U.S. raw materials tumbled to the lowest since December 2011 as investors’ net-short positions for sugar and coffee hit record highs. Bullish corn wagers fell the most since June 2010….”

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The Pound Sterling Touches 16 Month Lows as Moody’s Cuts U.K AAA Rating

“The pound fell to its weakest level in almost 16 months against the euro after Moody’s Investors Service cut the U.K.’s AAA credit rating, citing weakness in the nation’s growth outlook.

U.K. government bonds pared an earlier decline. Moody’s lowered Britain’s rating by one level to Aa1 from Aaa on Feb. 22. Sterling, which has tumbled 6.8 percent against the dollar this year, dropped to the lowest since July 2010 before a government report this week that analysts said will show Britain’s economy shrank last quarter.

“Although the timing of the downgrade was a surprise, overall the market has been anticipating a ratings change,” said Ian Stannard, head of European foreign-exchange strategy at Morgan Stanley in London. “In recent weeks we have seen sterling’s safe-haven status erode. After the initial knee-jerk reaction there is the potential for a rebound.”

The pound slid 0.7 percent to 87.59 pence per euro as of 11:27 a.m. London time after depreciating to 87.75 pence, the weakest since Oct. 31, 2011. The pound was little changed at $1.5149 after declining to $1.5073, the lowest since July 2010.

Sterling has slumped 6 percent this year, the second-worst performer among 10 developed-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. Only the yen has fallen more, losing 6.7 percent. The dollar strengthened 1.7 percent.

Switch Emphasis

Three-month implied volatility on the pound versus the euro climbed as high as 9.4 percent, the most since May. 18. Volatility on the pound versus the dollar climbed to 9.23 percent, the highest since June. 19….”

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Italian Bond Yields Pare Gains Into Elections

Italy’s bonds rose for a second day amid speculation the winner of the nation’s parliamentary election will maintain austerity measures imposed to stem financial turmoil in the euro area’s third-largest economy.

Italian two-year securities fell as the country sold 2.82 billion euros ($3.73 billion) of zero-coupon notes due 2014 as well as inflation-linked bonds due in 2021 and 2026. Pier Luigi Bersani will probably gain a majority in the 630-seat lower house, according to polls published Feb. 8. Challengers include former Premier Silvio Berlusconi, incumbent Mario Monti and Beppe Grillo. Benchmark German bunds were little changed.

We are expecting a rainbow coalition outcome that doesn’t include Berlusconi and that would be acceptable for the market,” said Padhraic Garvey, head of developed-market debt strategy at ING Groep NV in Amsterdam. “Fundamentally, Italy is in decent shape and as long as we don’t see any divergence from the Monti policies then yields can come down.”

Italy’s 10-year yield dropped three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 4.41 percent as of 10:44 a.m. London time. It earlier fell as much as seven basis points to 4.38 percent. The 5.5 percent bond due in November 2022 rose 0.27, or 2.70 euros per 1,000-euro face amount, to 108.87.

The rate on two-year notes climbed three basis points to 1.70 percent, extending last week’s nine-basis point increase.

Initial estimates of the election result are due after 3 p.m. inRome, when the second day of balloting ends.

Yield Spread

Italy’s 10-year yield difference over similar-maturity bunds may narrow as much as 75 basis points if a center-left coalition is formed, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists Francesco Garzarelli and Silvia Ardagna wrote in a note to clients yesterday. The so-called spread fell three basis points to 284 basis points today….”

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U.S. Banks Open Liquidity Spigot for European Commercial Property Market

“U.S. banks are looking to capitalize on a dearth of financing for Europe’s commercial property market that’s driven lending margins to five times the level prior to the 2008 crisis.

Citigroup Inc. (C)Morgan Stanley (MS)Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) are following insurers and distressed investors allocating capital to the region as local banks, which overextended during the last boom, are forced to contract amid new regulations. Europe faces an $82 billion shortfall between the amount of real-estate debt maturing through this year and the funding available to replace it, according to real-estate broker DTZ.

The scarcity of capital means lenders can charge as much as 3.75 percentage points over benchmarks for the safest pieces of commercial mortgage debt, about five times the spread in 2007, according to Alvarez & Marsal, an adviser on real estate transactions. Those margins will enable banks to revive the market for commercial mortgage-backed bonds, which parcel loans and slice them into securities of varying risk, after it largely shut in 2008.

“Nature abhors a vacuum,” said Robin Priest, a managing director of Alvarez & Marsal’s real-estate business in London. “The need for debt finance is much greater than the bank-market supply,” he said. “This is therefore positive for the CMBS market.”

Europe’s recession caused the amount of new lending for commercial property in the region to drop by about 77 percent from 2007 through 2011, according to estimates from Michael Haddock, a London-based research director at CBRE Group Inc.

Portfolio Sale…”

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$ELN Offered $6.5 Billion by Royalty Pharma

RP Management LLC, an investor in royalty streams from pharmaceuticals, offered to buy Elan Corp. (ELN) for about $6.5 billion, threatening the Irish drugmaker’s plan to embark on its own acquisitions.

A sale of Elan would allow shareholders to avoid the substantial risks of the company’s plan to make purchases with the $3.25 billion it will receive from selling its stake in the Tysabri multiple-sclerosis drug to Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB), the New York-based firm, known as Royalty Pharma, said in a statement today. The informal offer of $11 per American depositary receipt is 3.8 percent above the closing price Feb. 22, and represents “the full value of Elan today,” RP said.

The offer is a challenge to Dublin-based Elan’s strategy of reinvesting the proceeds from the Tysabri divestiture, which will leave the company with virtually no operations. Chief Executive Officer Kelly Martin’s plan to buy drugs that are on the market, late-stage experimental products or some early-stage clinical research projects drew skepticism from investors when announced Feb. 6. The company said Feb. 22 it also would buy back $1 billion of stock.

“The conservative investors will say let’s tender the shares because of the uncertainty about what management will do with the cash,” Olav Zilian, an analyst at Helvea SA in Geneva who has a reduce rating on the stock, said in a telephone interview. “It’s still open as to where the cash will be reinvested and shareholders possibly have no say in that.”

Stock Gains..”

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The Doubling of Property Taxes Immediately Slows Hong Kong Real Estate Market

“Residential property sales in Hong Kong fell after the government doubled a sales tax, saying bubble risks are spreading in the world’s most expensive place to buy an apartment.

Secondary sales for the 15 most popular housing estates fell 15 percent at the weekend from the previous weekend, according to Buggle Lau, chief analyst at Midland Holdings Ltd., the city’s biggest publicly traded realtor. The stamp duty on all properties above HK$2 million ($258,000) was raised to as much as 8.5 percent of the purchase price.

Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying’s latest attempt to cool the city’s real estate market sent shares of developers and realtors lower amid concerns that transactions will dry up and prices will decline. Since taking office in July, Leung has added extra property taxes, favored local permanent residents, tightened mortgages and increased supply after home prices doubled in the past four years on near-record low mortgage rates, an influx of mainland Chinese buyers and a lack of new units.

“The government intends to turn away yield seeking investors from all property markets,” JPMorgan & Chase Co. analysts, led by Lucia Kwong, wrote in a report today. “Developers may see 5 to 10 percent share price downside.”

The Hang Seng Property Index, which tracks the shares of the city’s nine biggest developers, fell for a seventh consecutive session, the longest losing streak since the seven sessions to May 14. It fell 0.3 percent at the close to the lowest in almost two months, after declining as much as 1.7 percent. The index has outperformed the Hang Seng Index (HSP) in the past 12 months, gaining 14 percent compared to the benchmark’s 7.6 percent.

Retail Transactions…”

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China’s Petrochemical Corp. Will Buy Up $CHK’s Assets for $1.02 Billion

“China Petrochemical Corp., the nation’s second-largest energy company, will pay $1.02 billion to buy 50 percent of Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK)’s Mississippi Lime assets, seeking to benefit from surging U.S. crude output.

The assets in Oklahoma produced 46,000 barrels of oil a day at the end of 2012, according to an e-mailed statement released today by Beijing-based unit Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration & Production Corp. Cnooc Ltd. (883), a unit of China’s largest offshore oil producer, has bought $1.65 billion of assets from Chesapeake since 2010.

U.S. energy acquisitions may soar after Cnooc this month won approval from the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment to buy Nexen Inc. (NXY) for $15.1 billion. Chinese companies are seeking energy assets globally to lock in supplies for the world’s fastest growing major economy and access technology to retrieve fuel trapped in rocks that has driven U.S. oil production to the highest in almost 21 years.

“While Chesapeake has many quality assets, Chinese oil companies care more about their drilling and shale-fracking technology,” Laban Yu, Hong Kong-based analyst at Jefferies Group Inc., said in a telephone interview. “The reason Chinese oil companies have gone after Chesapeake in the past year was also because they wanted to apply the technology to tap the world’s No.1 shale gas reserves in China.”

Rising Production…”

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$CVX Buys Permit To Enter Australian Natty Gas Field Project

Chevron Corp. (CVX), the second-largest U.S. energy company, agreed to pay as much as $349 million to join Beach Energy Ltd. (BPT) in an Australian natural gas exploration campaign in its first shale investment in the country.

Chevron will acquire as much as 60 percent of a permit in South Australia and 36 percent of a block in Queensland, Adelaide-based Beach said today in a statement. The blocks cover about 810,000 acres in the Cooper Basin, the outback region that straddles the border of the two states, San Ramon, California- based Chevron said in a separate statement.

The agreement follows shale investments by ConocoPhillips (COP), Statoil ASA, BG Group Plc and Hess Corp. in a nation estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration to have the world’s sixth-biggest potential reserves. Wilson HTM Investment Group says the accord is the biggest shale gas deal in Australia, which the government estimates may hold almost 400 trillion cubic feet of resources.

“The fact you’ve got a knowledgeable party coming in says they think there’s something there,” said John Young, a Melbourne-based analyst at Wilson HTM Investment Group. “The resource in the Cooper is being progressively de-risked and we’ll over time see a commercial development from this.”

Beach rose 5.8 percent to A$1.37 at the close in Sydney, the most in more than five months. The company had the fifth- biggest gain on Australia’s key index, which climbed 0.8 percent….”

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Aussie Dollar Falls on Weak Flash PMI Data in China

Australia’s dollar declined against most of its major peers after a preliminary survey showed China’s manufacturing is expanding at a slower pace, dimming the outlook for South Pacific nation’s exports.

Local bonds and the so-called Aussie fell versus the U.S. currency as Italy’s general election result estimates due today curbed demand for riskier assets. Australia’s dollar reached a 4 1/2-year high against the yen on speculation Japan’s government will nominate as central-bank head Haruhiko Kuroda, who has said expanding monetary stimulus can be justified.

“It’s a surprisingly softer number, suggesting that the Chinese economy is pulling back a little,” said Greg Gibbs, a Singapore-based senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “It has contributed to some softness in the Australian dollar. The Aussie is in a gradual downtrend.”

The Australian dollar declined 0.4 percent to $1.0278 at 4:59 p.m. in Sydney from the end of last week. It touched 97.73 yen, the highest since August 2008, before trading at 96.81, 0.4 percent above the close on Feb. 22. New Zealand’s dollar slid 0.1 percent to 83.71 U.S. cents. The kiwi climbed 0.7 percent to 78.85 yen, adding to a 0.8 percent gain on Feb. 22.

The yield on Australia’s 10-year bonds fell three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 3.51 percent.

The preliminary reading of a Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.4 in February from 52.3 in January, according to a statement from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics today. That compared with the 52.2 reading expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. China is Australia’s biggest trading partner and New Zealand’s second-largest export market.

RBA Cut…”

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Private Survey Shows China Manufacturing at a Crawl

China’s manufacturing is expanding at the slowest pace in four months, a private survey showed, underscoring the headwinds faced by policy makers in the world’s second-biggest economy.

The preliminary reading of a Purchasing Managers’ Index was 50.4 in February, according to a statement from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics today. That compares with the 52.3 final reading for January and the 52.2 median estimate of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. A number above 50 indicates expansion.

Today’s report may damp optimism that an economic rebound is gaining traction following a seven-quarter slowdown and the weakest annual expansion in 13 years. The benchmarkShanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) last week dropped the most since May 2011 on concern the government will expand restrictions on the property market to curb home-price gains.

“It casts some shadow over China’s recovery,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong and a former researcher for the International Monetary Fund. “Chinese economic fundamentals may prove weaker than previously expected.”

China’s economy expanded 7.9 percent in the final three months of 2012 from a year earlier, the first pickup in eight quarters. Growth may accelerate to 8.2 percent this quarter, according to the median estimate of 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News this month.

Export Gain…”

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Samurai Abe to Elect Dovish Cabinet Members

“Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is likely to nominate Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda as Bank of Japan governor, according to two officials with knowledge of the discussions.

Abe is also likely to tap Kikuo Iwata, an academic who has urged a ramping up in Japan’s monetary base to end deflation, and Hiroshi Nakaso, a senior BOJ official, as deputy governors, according to one government official and a ruling coalition executive, who asked not to be named as the talks are private. Finance Minister Taro Aso lauded Kuroda in remarks to reporters today. The yen fell and Japanese stocks rose on the plans.

The picks would raise the odds of further BOJ stimulus after Kuroda, 68, who advocated an inflation target more than a decade before the bank adopted one in January, said this month additional easing can be justified for 2013. Iwata briefed Abe on monetary policy and the economy during his stint in opposition, when he decided to make reflation the main plank of his campaign for the Liberal Democratic Party to retake power.

“Kuroda has a degree of credibility, having been there relatively early” with arguing for an inflation target, said Richard Jerram, chief economist at Bank of Singapore Ltd., who has analyzed the Japanese economy since the 1980s bubble years. “The end of a toleration of deflation” means the nation is at an inflection point, where growth could return to 1 percent to 2 percent a year as real interest rates are brought down, he said….”

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The Yen Gets Crushed to Three Year Lows, Nikkei Likes

“The yen weakened to the lowest level in almost three years against the dollar and Japanese stocks led global shares higher on speculation Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will nominate a central bank chief who favors stimulus. The euro gained as Italy voted in general elections.

The yen depreciated 0.4 percent to 93.75 per dollar at 7:05 a.m. in New York and earlier traded at its lowest level since May 2010. The euro strengthened 0.6 percent to $1.3271 and Italian bonds advanced. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) surged 2.4 percent to its highest level since September 2008, helping the MSCI All-Country World Index gain 0.5 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures increased 0.5 percent. Silver climbed 1.5 percent and U.K. natural gas jumped to a one-year high.

Abe is likely to call on Asian Development Bank PresidentHaruhiko Kuroda, who said this month there is “substantial room” for easing, and Kikuo Iwata as his deputy, according to two officials with knowledge of the discussions. Initial estimates of Italy’s election results are due after 3 p.m. in Rome, with Pier Luigi Bersani the front-runner in opinion surveys two weeks ago.

“The market seems to have formed an opinion that Kuroda is a dove and if he indeed becomes the new BOJ governor, he would be willing to do much more to support growth,” saidGeoffrey Yu, a senior currency strategist at UBS AG in London. “The yen is weakening on speculation that there will be more policy easing.”

The yen weakened against all 16 of its major peers, losing 1 percent versus the euro. Japan’s currency has dropped 6.7 percent this year, the biggest loser among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The pound has seen the second-biggest decline, falling 5.9 percent.

U.K. Downgrade…”

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Need a Hedge for Those Equities & Commodity Plays? Try Greenbacks for a Change

“As we highlighted in our conversation in May 2012 – “Risk-Off Correlations – When Opposites attract”: Commodities and stocks have become far more closely intertwined as resources have taken on a greater role with China’s economic expansion and increasing consumption in Emerging Markets.

In numerous conversations, we pointed out we had been tracking with much interest the ongoing relationship between Oil Prices, the Standard and Poor’s index and the US 10 year Treasury yield since QE2 has been announced.

Looking at the recent weaknesses in commodities such as oil and copper, one could decently argue that the time might have come to take a few chips off the gambling table.

mt1 Time for a Pullback?  Get Some Greenbacks!

This feeling of “uneasiness” seems to be shared by Bank of America Merrill Lynch which indicated on the 21st of February the following important points:…”

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Governors Fret Over Spending Cuts Hurting Recovery

“U.S. budget cuts threaten states’ economic recoveries from the worst fiscal crisis since the Great Depression and will result in the dismissal of teachers and firefighters, as well as the elimination of work-training programs, governors said.

President Barack Obama and Congress need to find a way to prevent $85 billion in across-the-board spending cuts from taking effect starting on March 1, said Republican and Democratic governors who were in Washington today for a meeting of the National Governors Association.

The cuts, known as sequestration, will reduce projected spending by $1.2 trillion over the next nine years, with half in defense spending and half from domestic spending. Governors said the possibility of cuts has already caused damage to their economies, and they warned of far more disruption if the president and lawmakers can’t agree.

“The uncertainty of sequestration is really harming our states and our national economy,” Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin, a Republican, said at a news conference kicking off the meeting in Washington. “We’re talking about real lives. We’re talking about families. We’re talking about their pocketbooks.”

The spending reductions may lead to a loss of 20,000 jobs in Oklahoma, where businesses are already hesitant to invest because of the uncertainty over the federal budget, Fallin said.

Virginia Recession…”

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