Joined Nov 11, 2007
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In Depth Analysis of the 4 Year Old Bull Market, Beyond the Pundit Bull Calls

“The stock market has so far put in a spectacular bull run during January 2013 by putting in a series of new stocks bull market highs across virtually every major indices and this taking place whilst the hottest stock of 2012 having collapsed by 1/3rd – Apple. No one could have imagined that the major stock market indices could make a series of new bull market highs whilst the biggest cap stock was in free fall! Where Apple is concerned it is clearly a case of Samsung having pricked Apple’s stock price bubble that looks set to have much further to deflate.

If the stock market momentum continues at the current pace then the stock market will be up by more than 50% for the year! Off course that is not going to happen, realistically no matter how good such a move would be for our stock portfolio’s, I am pretty confident that this mature bull market (near 4 year old) is unlikely to see the stock market up 50% for 2013, especially as the major indices are homing in on major psychological levels such as Dow 14,000 (last 13,954) and my long standing target of 14,200 (Stocks Stealth Bull Market ebook March 2011).

Another point to note is that the rally underway has witnessed delusional bears right across the globe literally being seen as foaming at the mouth as illustrated by the diatribe that continues spew out of commentary of an always imminent bear market, crash, collapse etc… When the reality is that not only have they and everyone who listened to them missed out on what is a stocks bull market that is approaching the END of its FOURTH YEAR ! But that have been actively betting against an exceptionally strong recent bull run that is the exact mirror image of the crash that they have been so furiously proclaiming as always being imminent.

Stock Market 2012 Quick Review

The Dow closed up a healthy 7% for 2012 at 13,104, whilst other major indices adding substantially more such as S&P: up 13% and Nasdaq up 16%, with the UK FTSE trailing with a 6% gain.

Stock Market 2012 First Half Strategy

In terms of the long-term view my analysis of March 2011 (Stock Stealth Bull Market Ebook) (FREE DOWNLOAD) concluded in a target of Dow 14,200. However as regularly indicated since Mid December 2011, in view of expectations for a tough year for a maturing stocks bull market during 2012, my strategy for the first half of 2012 had been to cut my net long exposure to the stock market from about 40% of assets (Dec 18th) by distributing into the anticipated rally into late April / Early May 2012 as indicated by the analysis and forecast of Feb 2012, which resulted in substantially cutting my exposure to the stock market by mid year.

By June 2012, in the wake of the subsequent sell off my expectations were once towards a continuation of the bull market during the second half of the year towards bull market highs as illustrated by my analysis and concluding trend forecast at that time – 16 Jun 2012 – Greece Election Eurogeddon Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast …”

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