iBankCoin
Joined Nov 11, 2007
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Looking Into GDP Spin: Shrinkage Not Caused by Contraction in Government Spending

“The White House and its media didn’t even stop to take a breath. Before news of U.S. GDP shrinking 0.1 last quarter had even hit the cable airwaves, we were being told by both that this collapse was mostly due to the fact that the federal government didn’t spend enough during the last quarter of last year. Translation: Don’t blame Obama for this. Had we just grown the size and power of The State like he wants, we’d all be sitting in clover.

Except that simply isn’t true.

There was no decrease in government spending during the fourth quarter of last year. In fact, the government spent more money between October and December of 2012 than it did during the previous two quarters. So federal spending actually increased during the 4th quarter.

Would you like some facts to go with your media propaganda?

Federal outlays by quarter:

1st: 966,188

2nd: 884,957

3rd: 809,969

4th: 907,912

Now we’re being told the economic slide wasn’t due to an overall decrease in State spending, but that it was due to a specific decrease in federal spending, and, naturally, Hurricane Sandy:

“A likely explanation for the sharp decline in Federal defense spending is uncertainty concerning the automatic spending cuts that were scheduled to take effect in January, and are currently scheduled to take effect on March 1st,” explains Alan B. Krueger, the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in a statement. “The decline in government spending across all levels reduced real GDP by 1.33 percentage points in the quarter.”

Here’s Ezra Klein, who the Washington Post still sells as an objective journalist…”

Full article

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2 comments

  1. ottnott

    You can count on deadbreitbart to misinform.

    Whether it is through malice or ignorance is less certain.

    GDP figures are seasonally adjusted, while the Treasury numbers on outlays are not.

    All you have to do is read the Commerce Dept press release on the GDP numbers:

    http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

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  2. ottnott

    Here’s what deadbreitbart isn’t explaining to you:

    Federal government spending

    Fourth-quarter federal government spending decreased at a 15.0 percent annual rate,
    reflecting a large decrease in national defense spending. The decrease in national
    defense spending is based on the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) for October,
    November, and December from the Department of the Treasury, which shows a large
    decrease in fourth-quarter outlays for Department of Defense-military programs other
    than for military personnel. (The MTS shows a fourth-quarter increase in outlays for
    military personnel, but that increase reflects special factors such as once-a-year lump
    sum payments that BEA distributes across the quarters of the year, and an extra pay
    day that BEA adjusts for in preparing accrual-based estimates.)
    http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2013/tech4q12_adv.htm

    Commerce Department and the other sources disparaged by deadbreitbart win this round without breaking a sweat.

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