Joined Nov 11, 2007
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How Important is Your Vote ?


“If you live in Ohio, your vote for president matters a whole lot, at least to judge from the attention being lavished on that state by the candidates. There is 1 chance in 5,800 that you will personally decide the election.

If you live almost anywhere else the probability that your vote matters is lower. In New York, way lower. Rational New Yorkers won’t drive to the polls, at least in areas where gasoline is short.

My rough calculation of the chance that a single vote cast in New York will decide the presidency is 1 in 10 raised to the power 61,000, or thereabouts. That would be a number with 61,000 zeroes in it. You’d have a better shot at winning the state lottery 6,000 times in a row.”

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