EL-ERIAN: Europe Is About To Collapse

“FRANKFURT – On a recent trip to Germany, I was struck by two distinct narratives. One narrative features a robust German economy with low unemployment, strong finances, and the right competitive position to exploit the most dynamic segments of global demand. The other narrative describes an economy that is encumbered by never-ending European debt crises whose perpetrators seek to shift their responsibility – and their financing needs – onto Germany’s pristine balance sheet.

Both narratives are understandable. But they cannot co-exist forever. After all, it is difficult to be a good house in a deteriorating neighborhood. Either the neighborhood improves, or the value of the house declines. And it matters a great deal which narrative prevails – for Germany, for Europe, and for the global economy….”

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“WASHINGTON (Reuters)- New orders for U.S. factory goods in March recorded their biggest decline in three years as demand fortransportation equipment and a range of other goods slumped, government data showed on Wednesday.

The Commerce Department said orders for manufactured goods dropped 1.5 percent after a revised 1.1 percent rise in February.

Economists had forecast orders falling 1.6 percent after a previously reported 1.3 percent increase in February.

While the report showed broad weakness in March in a sector that has carried the economic recovery, anecdotal evidence suggests factories continued to expand as the second quarter started….”

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European boards

Cool interactive way of looking at everything in the universe….

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“I will keep this short as possible.  A single nuclear weapon has “gone missing” as of last week, one of four missing but this one “more missing” than the others. 

The Thames Valley Police, famous for their fictional representations in the Colin Dexter detective novels, detained a high ranking government security officer, department to remain unnamed, at the behest of what we are told is the Home Secretary. …”

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[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hv36yEW85lo 450 300]

3D heat map

S&P A/D Line

NASDAQ A/D Line

NYSE

New Highs 22 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Abbott Labs                   ABT         62.60              503,690 
Amer Eagle Outfitters         AEO         19.80            2,712,389 
ApartmentInvMgmt7%Cl Z        AIVpZ       25.39                  300 
BlackRock  Muni Bnd           BIE         16.69                1,400 
CBS Corp A                    CBS/A       35.56                1,995 
CBS Corp B                    CBS         35.00            2,506,705 
CF Ind Hldgs                  CF          200.90             525,419 
CVS Caremark                  CVS         45.98            1,851,831 
Cabot Corp                    CBT         44.50              102,919 
CinemarkHldgs                 CNK         23.45              197,848 
Fedl Ag Mtge Corp Cl B        AGM         23.55               19,464 
First Republic Bk Pfd A       FRCpA       26.24                1,171 
Gallagher                     AJG         38.24               89,878 
Hersha Hosptlty Tr Pfd B      HTpB        25.08               11,250 
InterCont Hotels Grp          IHG         24.49               43,181 
MFA Finl Nts 2042             MFO         25.07                4,130 
Macy's Inc                    M           42.05              825,325 
Nuveen CA Muni Mkt            NCO         16.19                2,629 
NuveenPremIncmMuni            NNF         16.55                1,074 
Public Storage Dep Pfd S      PSApS       26.00                2,368 
SeaCube Container Leasing     BOX         19.05                7,689 
Teradata Cp                   TDC         72.00              120,783 

New Lows 16 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
AbitibiBowater                ABH         12.13               34,372 
Accretive Health              AH          8.85               222,580 
Arch Coal                     ACI         8.90             2,311,813 
Banco Bilbao Argentaria       BBVA        6.38               397,800 
Banco Santander               STD         5.94             8,930,158 
El Paso Elec                  EE          29.17               36,012 
Emergent Biosoltns            EBS         13.68                3,733 
GFI Group                     GFIG        3.00                35,047 
Goldcorp                      GG          37.80              427,364 
Ivanhoe Mines                 IVN         11.12              212,398 
Panasonic Cp                  PC          7.41                35,426 
Phillips 66                   PSX         31.75            1,093,749 
QiaoXingComm                  QXM         0.55                29,500 
RadioShack                    RSH         5.01               624,043 
Sony Corp ADS                 SNE         15.74              140,027 
Telefonica                    TEF         14.03            3,042,309

NASDAQ

New Highs 26 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Anika Therapeutics            ANIK        17.56                9,784 
Aspen Technology              AZPN        22.49              207,198 
Benihana                      BNHN        16.59                2,383 
BioScrip                      BIOS        7.88                86,614 
C&F Fincl                     CFFI        31.65                  400 
Charming Shoppes              CHRS        7.31            56,015,436 
Delta Natural Gas Co          DGAS        22.32                3,108 
EasyLink Services Int         ESIC        7.17             2,686,060 
Garmin                        GRMN        50.49              597,620 
HSN Inc                       HSNI        40.00               59,693 
Heartware Intl Inc            HTWR        81.06               21,601 
IAC/InterActive               IACI        52.48              278,618 
Key Tronic                    KTCC        12.72               75,580 
Market Leader                 LEDR        4.02                29,704 
MidWestOne Fincl Group        MOFG        21.20                  431 
Myriad Genetics               MYGN        27.00              242,319 
National Research             NRCI        50.02                  200 
Oconee Federal Financial      OFED        12.62                  700 
OmniAmerican Bancorp Inc      OABC        20.47                1,600 
Papa John's Intl              PZZA        44.65              129,682 
Prime Acquisition             PACQ        12.11                  100 
Reading Intl A                RDI         5.10                 1,650 
Ross Stores                   ROST        63.44              147,983 
Standard Microsystems         SMSC        36.35            2,249,650 
Synacor                       SYNC        9.10                27,130 
TripAdvisor                   TRIP        44.46            1,881,830 

New Lows 19 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
APCO Oil and Gas              APAGF       38.46                1,116 
Alaska Comm Sys Grp           ALSK        2.40                64,254 
AtriCure                      ATRC        8.01                 9,171 
Brightpoint                   CELL        5.78                65,114 
CEVA                          CEVA        19.13              239,596 
CommTouch Software            CTCH        2.68                 2,777 
Dial Global                   DIAL        2.09                   300 
DynaVox                       DVOX        2.16                26,984 
First Solar                   FSLR        17.78              539,492 
Groupon Inc                   GRPN        10.50              290,028 
Leap Wireless Intl            LEAP        5.30               113,784 
Nash Finch Co                 NAFC        24.51                3,085 
Planar Systems                PLNR        1.72                 2,500 
PwrShrs Glbl Wind Energy      PWND        6.24                   900 
Proofpoint                    PFPT        12.90               27,480 
Sycamore Networks             SCMR        15.27                1,669 
Tecumseh Products A           TECUA       3.63                 2,785 
Ultrapetrol (Bahamas)         ULTR        1.87                 2,495 
Vicor                         VICR        6.80                11,696

 -CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
BRCM       5/19/12         38.0000         324            0.4600      dn 0.4500 
AMZN       5/19/12        225.0000         301            8.7000      dn 0.5500 
AMZN       5/19/12        220.0000         300           12.0000      dn 1.1000 
AMZN       6/16/12        225.0000         300           12.2000      dn 0.7500 
BRCM       5/19/12         40.0000         300            0.1300      dn 0.3000 
CHK        5/19/12         19.0000         162            0.3600      dn 0.9800 
GNW        5/19/12          7.0000         161            0.0600      dn 0.0900 
CHK        6/16/12         20.0000         121            0.5400      dn 0.6500 
MS         6/16/12         19.0000         113            0.3200      dn 0.0400 
AAPL       5/4/12         590.0000         107            4.0000      up 0.6500 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
TLT        5/4/12         115.0000         200            0.1000      dn 0.0700 
TLT        5/4/12         116.0000         200            0.2100      dn 0.3200 
AAPL       5/4/12         580.0000         132            4.2500      dn 0.9500 
RIMM       6/16/12         13.0000          99            0.9900      up 0.2100 
AAPL       5/4/12         585.0000          90            6.1700      dn 0.7700 
SD         9/22/12          7.0000          75            0.6700      up 0.0600 
AAPL       5/4/12         570.0000          75            1.7400      dn 0.5400 
RIMM       5/4/12          14.0000          72            0.9800      up 0.3800 
GLD        5/4/12         160.0000          71            0.7000      up 0.1300 
JNJ        1/19/13         62.5000          70            2.7000      up 0.1100 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
9561    11925        21486

-CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
AET        6/16/12         49.0000       10000            0.2600      up 0.0500 
AET        7/21/12         49.0000        9486            0.7300      up 0.1500 
SPY        5/19/12        139.0000        3916            2.3000      dn 0.4400 
RVBD       5/19/12         28.0000        2996            0.0300      up 0.0000 
RVBD       5/19/12         27.0000        2851            0.0400      up 0.0000 
RVBD       5/19/12         26.0000        2413            0.0500      up 0.0100 
ABX        5/19/12         40.0000        1538            0.6600      dn 0.6300 
CHK        5/4/12          18.0000        1459            0.2200      dn 1.5800 
CHK        5/4/12          20.0000        1221            0.0200      dn 0.4200 
PLX        5/19/12          7.5000        1189            0.3500      dn 0.3500 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
SPY        6/16/12        133.0000       18295            1.2900      up 0.1800 
T          5/19/12         33.0000        3988            0.4000      up 0.0600 
CHK        5/4/12          18.0000        3267            0.8500      up 0.6600 
BRCM       5/19/12         34.0000        3040            0.1900      dn 0.3500 
SPY        5/19/12        127.0000        2060            0.1000      up 0.0400 
CHK        5/4/12          19.0000        1901            1.7600      up 1.3500 
CHK        5/19/12         19.0000        1836            1.9000      up 1.1300 
PLX        5/19/12          7.5000        1772            0.9000      dn 1.0500 
SPY        5/4/12         138.0000        1634            0.2500      up 0.0800 
CHK        5/4/12          16.0000        1586            0.0500      dn 0.0100 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
271027    216363        487390

DOW, GE, CVX, RDS.A, HAL, IBM

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“A pesticide used on farms and golf courses has been linked to brain abnormalities in babies, according to a group of researchers.

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“Banks and investors are jumping into the “junk” bond market with both feet, as the thirst for yield and the appetite for risk continue to rage.

Banks are lending and investors are buying to the point that some experts worry a bubble is forming.

“It’s not yet unduly dangerous, but we’re moving in that direction,” Wilbur Ross, the billionaire chief of buyout firm WL Ross & Co., tells The Wall Street Journal…”

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“The U.S. could suffer another credit downgrade, similar to the Standard & Poor’s decision to strip the country of its coveted AAA rating in 2011, says Bill Gross, founder of Pimco, manager of the world’s largest bond fund.

The U.S. is running a structural deficit, a deficit a country would post even while running at full capacity, that is seriously jeopardizing the country’s health.  Until the government addresses massive liabilities, the country is headed for another downgrade.

Standard & Poor’s currently rates the country at AA, while Moody’s rates the country at AAA.

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“The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 13,338 Tuesday, its highest since December, 2007. The S&P 500 added 16 points. Wall Street will remember May 1 as a great day.

But most of these gains are going to the richest 10 percent of Americans who own 90 percent of the shares traded on Wall Street. And the lion’s share of the gains are going to the wealthiest 1 percent.

Shares are up because corporate profits are up, and profits are up largely because companies have figured out how to do more with less.

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This is just absurd and juvenile.

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Spain is down 2.96%

Italy is down 2.5%

Full look

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“The number of homes entering the foreclosure process rose in March, up 8.1 percent, according to a new report from lender Processing Services, but the volume is down more than 30 percent from a year ago.

Analysts had expected this number to skyrocket immediately following the $25 billion settlement between banks and state governments over fraudulent mortgage servicing….”

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“MasterCard, the world’s second-largest credit and debit card network, reported higher quarterly profits as consumers spent more with their cards.

Net income in the first quarter was $682 million, or $5.36 a share, compared with $562 million, or $4.29 a share, a year earlier, the company said on Wednesday.

The global payments and technology company[MA  455.90        ] delivered revenue of $1.8 billion, up from $1.5 billion a year ago.

Analysts had expected the company to report earnings excluding items of $5.30 per share on revenue of $1.73 billion, according to a consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters….”

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