Joe Weisenthal
Goldman’s Dominic Wilson is out with a new note offering guidance to investors on whether to finally jump off the stockmarket, and get more bearish.
Here’s the key threshold:
We think that risk assets are likely to move higher as long as US data remain consistent with GDP growth of somewhat more than 2%.
The next several hours may be decisive…
Given more mixed news in March, and the likelihood that weather-related boosts will fade in the month or two ahead, the stakes have been raised for the releases over the next 24 hours. At the risk of oversimplification, if the ISM and global PMIs bounce convincingly, we think the market is likely to be able to make fresh highs. If instead we see a second month of declines, we are likely to turn more cautious.
So basically, huge hours ahead, starting with the Chinese PMI today, and ending with US ISM numbers tomorrow morning.
UPDATE: The official Chinese PMI reading has bounced back nicely.
European PMI data will come out super-early on Monday.
