Monthly Archives: March 2012
Initial Claims: Prior 348k, Market Expects 350k, Actual 359k…..Final GDP Revision Comes in @ 3%
Last weeks initial claim revision jumped to 364k from 348k.
Continuing claims: Prior 3352k, Market expects 3385k, Actual 3340k.
Comments »Best Buy Beats on the Bottom Line, But Misses on the Top
Technical Analysis Suggests the S&P May be Range Bound for Many Years
“The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) will likely remain stuck in the 500-point range where it’s been four-fifths of the time since 2000 until the Federal Reserve allows interest rates to rise, according to Piper Jaffray Cos.
The benchmark measure fell in the previous two days after reaching 1,416.51, the highest level since May 2008 and 9.5 percent below its record high of 1,565.15 from 2007. The index has traded between 1,000 and 1,500 for about 80 percent of the time since 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Equity gains stalled in the past 12 years as the economy suffered from the bursting of bubbles in technology and real estate, forcing the central bank to cut its benchmark interest rate to near zero from 6.5 percent to spur growth. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has pledged to keep borrowing costs low through at least late 2014.
“The S&P 500 is approaching the upper end of the secular trading range,” Craig W. Johnson, a Minneapolis-based technical market strategist with Piper Jaffray, wrote in a note yesterday. “This resistance will likely remain intact until 2014-2015, and will correspond with a secular change in bond yields.”
Comments »Government Math May Turn to Crisis
“Consider the following numbers: 2.2, 62.8, 454, 5.9. Drawing a blank? Not to worry. They don’t mean much on their own.
Now consider them in context:
1) 2.2 percent is the average interest rate on the U.S. Treasury’s marketable and non-marketable debt (February data).
2) 62.8 months is the average maturity of the Treasury’s marketable debt (fourth quarter 2011).
3) $454 billion is the interest expense on publicly held debt in fiscal 2011, which ended Sept. 30.
4) $5.9 trillion is the amount of debt coming due in the next five years.
For the moment, Nos. 1 and 2 are helping No. 3 and creating a big problem for No. 4. Unless Treasury does something about No. 2, Nos. 1 and 3 will become liabilities while No. 4 has the potential to provoke a crisis.
In plain English, the Treasury’s reliance on short-term financing serves a dual purpose, neither of which is beneficial in the long run. First, it helps conceal the depth of the nation’s structural imbalances: the difference between what it spends and what it collects in taxes. Second, it puts the U.S. in the precarious position of having to roll over 71 percent of its privately held marketable debt in the next five years — probably at higher interest rates….”
Comments »Spain Sees Massive Strikes and Protests as Patience and Time Run Out
“Spanish transport, power demand and manufacturing were disrupted today in the first general strike against labor reforms and austerity policies since Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy took office three months ago.
Iberia, the Spanish unit of International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG), said it canceled 65 percent of flights, while national power demand was 16 percent below that of a typical day, grid operator Red Electrica Corp SA data showed. At Volkswagen AG (VOW3) and Renault SA (RNO) factories, 100 percent of workers followed the strike during the nightshift, the Comisiones Obreras union said in a statement.
The People’s Party government “will not cede” to union demands to retract changes to labor rules, Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro said yesterday. Thirty percent of workers planned to strike, according to a poll by El Pais.
While Rajoy’s measures have angered unions and undermined support for the party in a regional election on March 25, the government is still struggling to convince investors its policies are enough to restore the public finances and reduce a 23 percent jobless rate. Spanish 10-year borrowing costs have surged almost 50 basis points since the start of March.
“He has no choice,” said Antonio Barroso, a political analyst at Eurasia Group in London and a former government pollster. “If he gives in, the markets will punish Spain. Rajoy has his back against the wall.”
Comments »Italy Sells Bonds With Ease as the 10 Year Note Hits the Lowest Yield Since Last August
German Unemployment Falls More Than Expected
“German unemployment fell more than forecast in March, adding to evidence that growth inEurope’s biggest economy is gaining traction as the debt crisis recedes.
The number of people out of work fell a seasonally adjusted 18,000 to 2.84 million, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists forecast a decline of 10,000, the median of 36 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed. The adjusted jobless rateslipped to 6.7 percent, a two-decade low…”
Comments »Investors Bet on Palladium Over Gold as Global Car Sales Rise
“Investors are buying palladium at the fastest pace in more than a year as analysts predict rising demand and declining supply will turn this quarter’s worst- performing precious metal into the best by December.
Holdings in palladium-backed exchange-traded products rose 14 percent this year, poised for the best quarter since the end of 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The metal will average $850 an ounce in the final three months of 2012, 31 percent more than now, according to the median estimate of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. They expect a gain of 15 percent for gold, 13 percent for silver and 10 percent for platinum.
Palladium lagged behind other metals this year on concern about slowing growth in vehicle sales in China, the world’s largest car market. Autocatalysts account for 65 percent of demand, according to Barclays Capital. Prices are poised to rise because carmakers are still using the most metal ever, with the prospect of shortages because of less supply from state reserves in Russia, the biggest producer, the bank estimates.
“I like palladium the best among precious metals, it’s relatively cheap compared to the others,” said Bart Melek, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto and the most accurate price forecaster tracked by Bloomberg Rankings in the eight quarters through the end of 2011. “Autocatalyst demand for palladium should grow. Russian government stocks will limit supply growth.”
Comments »Oil Remains Weak on Supply and Growth Concerns
Europe Sells Off as the S&P Says Greece Will Have to Restructure its Debt
“European stocks declined for a third day, extending a three-week low, as Standard & Poor’ssaid Greece may have to restructure its debt again. Asian shares and U.S. index futures retreated.
Hennes & Mauritz AB (HMB), Europe’s second-largest clothing retailer, dropped the most in six months after earnings missed estimates. Inditex SA (ITX), the owner of the Zara brand, fell 1.9 percent. FirstGroup Plc (FGP), Britain’s biggest train operator, sank 14 percent. Nobel Biocare AG rose 4.1 percent after Chairman Rolf Watter told Handelszeitung the dental-implant maker would reject a takeover bid if it was too low….”
Comments »The Yen Rallies Nearly 1% as Investors Seek Safety in Asia
Rates Stay in Czech As Inflation is Tame and Recession is Running
“The Czech central bank kept its main interest rate at a record low for a 15th meeting as risks of an extended economic recession overshadowed an inflation spike fueled by an increase in sales taxes.
Czech central bankers left the benchmark two-week repurchase rate at 0.75 percent, a quarter-point less than the European Central Bank’s main rate, which was in line with the forecasts of all 22 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The bank, which has refrained from changing policy since May 2010, will hold a news conference at 2:30 p.m. in Prague.
The economy, exporting about 80 percent of its output, slid into a recession last year as government spending cuts outweighed demand abroad for Czech-made vehicles, car parts and electronics goods. Inflation (CZCPYOY) accelerated to the fastest pace in more than three years in February, driven by an increase in the value-added tax rate at the start of the year….”
Comments »Roche Gets Antsy and Increases Their Illumina Bid by 15%
Global Markets and U.S. Futures Trade Lower
LOL: Obama Budget Defeated 414-0
They don’t call him Zero for nothin’…
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President Obama’s budget was defeated 414-0 in the House late Wednesday, in a vote Republicans arranged to try to embarrass him and shelve his plan for the rest of the year.
The vote came as the House worked its way through its own fiscal year 2013 budget proposal, written by Budget Committee Chairman Paul D. Ryan. Republicans wrote an amendment that contained Mr. Obama’s budget and offered it on the floor, daring Democrats to back the plan, which calls for major tax increases and yet still adds trillions of dollars to the deficit over the next decade.
“It’s not a charade. It’s not a gimmick — unless what the president sent us is the same,” said Rep. Mick Mulvaney, a freshman Republican from South Carolina who sponsored Mr. Obama’s proposal for purposes of the debate. “I would encourage the Democrats to embrace this landmark Democrat document and support it. Personally, I will be voting against it.”
But no Democrats accepted the challenge.
Read the rest here.
Comments »New EPA Rule will Block ALL New Coal-Electric Generation
by Alec Rawls
The upcoming rule:
… will require any new power plant to emit no more than 1,000 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt of electricity produced. The average U.S. natural gas plant, which emits 800 to 850 pounds of CO2 per megawatt, meets that standard; coal plants emit an average of 1,768 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt.
Can this stand, after Obama’s big energy-policy tour last week included not a single mention CO2, greenhouse gases, climate or global warming?
Read the rest here.
Comments »WATCH: IS THIS REALLY A CONGRESSWOMAN?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_3do_LYSwI&feature=player_embedded#!
Comments »The EPA Wrecking Ball: FUCK YOU and Cheap Energy
Comments »This is evil writ large.
Shutting down utilities that use coal, an energy source the U.S. has in such abundance that it could provide electricity for the next hundreds of years, and ensuring that no new ones are built fits in perfectly with all the Green pipedreams about “renewable” energy. Solar and wind presently provide about two percent of the nation’s electricity and, without government subsidies and mandates requiring their use, they would not exist at all.
How stupid is it to not build more nuclear power plants when this form of power doesn’t emit anything but energy?
How stupid is it not to use coal when the U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of coal?
How stupid is it to begin to find reasons to regulate and thwart fracking, the technology to access trillions of cubic feet of natural gas that has been in use for decades?
How stupid is it to cover miles of land, far from any urban center, with hundreds of solar panels or huge, ugly wind turbines that kill thousands of birds every year?
The sun does not shine all the time, nor does the wind blow all the time. In the event of overcast skies or a day without wind, traditional plants—those using coal, gas, nuclear or generating hydroelectric power—have to be maintained as a backup. Take away the coal-fired plants and there were be huge gap in the national grid.
Darkness will descend and Americans will begin to live with blackouts and brownouts that will undermine every aspect of our lives. It’s bad enough when a town or even a city briefly loses power because of a storm, but imagine that occurring on a regular basis because there just aren’t enough utilities generating power!
What kind of people stand by idly while its own government conspires to take away the primary source of energy that everything else depends upon? The answer? You. The answer is the many elected politicians that have done little to rein in a rogue government agency intent on undermining the nation by denying it the ability to generate power with the least expensive source of electricity, coal.
The EPA, an unelected bureaucracy, has just ensured that all Americans, industries, small businesses, and individuals will begin [sic] pay far more for electrical power.
Richard J. Trzupek, the author of “Regulators Run Wild” and an environment policy advisor for The Heartland Institute, said of the new rule, “With around 50,000 megawatts of coal-fired power set to be forcibly retired in the next few years—thanks to the draconian policies of Obama’s EPA—this rule ensures that no new modern, efficient coal fired power plants will be built to fill the gap.”
In a triumph of crony capitalism, Trzupek notes that “The big winner will be Obama’s good friend, GE Chairman Jeff Immelt. Since solar and wind cannot fill a 50,000 megawatt baseload gap, the only way to ensure continued reliability of the grid is to build a lot of natural gas-fired plants quickly. And who is the biggest supplier of natural gas-fired combustion engines? GE of course.”
