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Monthly Archives: March 2012

Geithner Says No Meaningful Liquidity Risk in Volcker Rule

“Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said he doesn’t think the Volcker rule ban on proprietary trading will present a “meaningful risk” to liquidity or credit availability in European countries.

“I don’t believe, that despite the concerns expressed by governments and central banks, the rule as drafted presents a meaningful risk to liquidity or credit in those countries,” Geithner told the House Financial Services Committee today. He said he’s confident U.S. regulators will find the “right balance” in implementing the rule.

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New iPad Undergoes Heat Tests to Determine Safety Issues

Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s new iPad is being examined by Consumer Reports, which is trying to determine whether the tablet computer runs too hot and poses health risks to users.

“We’re doing some scientific analysis with thermal imaging,” said James McQueen, a spokesman for the consumer- review company. “We’re also going to check with our health experts, to see whether it’s an injury risk.”

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52 Week Highs and Lows

NYSE

New Highs 9 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Airgas Inc                    ARG         85.28               48,235 
Colgate-Palmolive             CL          95.75              170,007 
6.125% CorTS Am Gen Cap A     XFP         21.90                4,350 
Lions Gate Entertainment      LGF         14.78            1,796,390 
Nike Inc                      NKE         112.75             319,762 
Philip Morris Intl            PM          86.65              519,897 
SunTrust Bks Inc.Cl A Wt.     STI/WS/A    5.76                 2,700 
Williams Cos                  WMB         31.77            2,754,501 
YUM! Brands                   YUM         69.50              368,309 

New Lows 12 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
ASA Gold & Prec Metals        ASA         25.01               39,307 
Alexandria RE Eqs Pfd E       AREpE       24.38                6,000 
AngloGold Ashanti             AU          37.07              230,030 
EldoradoGold                  EGO         12.83              576,919 
GrafTech Intl                 GTI         11.60              192,931 
Harmony Gold Mining           HMY         10.63              156,199 
IamGold                       IAG         12.93              574,649 
NTT DOCOMO Inc                DCM         16.78               35,868 
Nuveen Glbl Val Opp Fd        JGV         15.84               35,435 
Polypore Int                  PPO         33.80              317,716 
Public Storage Pfd T          PSApT       24.78               61,598 
Transalta Corp                TAC         19.15               22,631

NASDAQ

New Highs 21 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Affymax                       AFFY        12.21              233,977 
Alexion Pharm                 ALXN        90.00              163,776 
Carmike Cinemas               CKEC        12.35               27,029 
ChinaEdu Corp                 CEDU        7.85                   900 
CoBiz Fincl                   COBZ        7.08               169,967 
Extreme Networks              EXTR        3.89               105,573 
Galena Biopharma              GALE        1.94             2,815,449 
Guaranty Federal Bancshrs     GFED        9.10                   100 
J Alexanders                  JAX         9.96                 1,968 
Joe's Jeans                   JOEZ        1.30               732,100 
Liquidity Services            LQDT        47.88              171,969 
M/A-COM Tech Solutions        MTSI        22.43                7,954 
MutualFirst Fincl             MFSF        9.95                 5,719 
Northrim Bancorp              NRIM        21.14                2,227 
Pacific Mercantile Bncp       PMBC        4.85                   500 
Premier Exhibitions           PRXI        3.38                96,428 
PrimeEnergy                   PNRG        28.55                  200 
Provident Fincl Hldgs         PROV        11.00                5,400 
SI Fincl Group                SIFI        11.59                2,082 
Starbucks                     SBUX        53.83              777,892 
Utd Community Fincl           UCFC        1.84                 8,794 

New Lows 10 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
AVEO Pharmaceuticals          AVEO        12.15               17,044 
Anthera Pharmaceuticals       ANTH        2.90                68,366 
B Communications              BCOM        9.55                 1,156 
Digital Ally                  DGLY        0.46                   600 
MDC Partners  (Cl A)          MDCA        11.43                4,770 
NewLead Hldg Ltd              NEWL        1.18                42,804 
Pure Bioscience               PURE        0.31                15,716 
SMART Technologies            SMT         3.00                54,645 
Superconductor Tech           SCON        0.65                88,337 
WPCS Intl                     WPCS        1.28                15,816

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Today’s Money Flows

ISSUE GAINERS                 SYMBOL   EXCH   LAST PRICE   MONEY FLOW    RATIO 
                                                          (in millions) 
Select Sector SPDR-Ind         XLI     ARCA       37.47       +24.0       4.92 
Freeport McMoran               FCX     NYSE       38.22       +12.9       1.48 
Microsoft                      MSFT    NASD       31.88       +11.3       1.46 
Caterpillar                    CAT     NYSE      110.92       +11.3       1.22 
Wells Fargo                    WFC     NYSE       33.94        +9.8       1.76 
Advance Auto Parts             AAP     NYSE       88.69        +9.2       2.37 
Wal-Mart Stores                WMT     NYSE       60.80        +8.7       2.49 
PepsiCo                        PEP     NYSE       64.81        +8.4       2.54 
Barrick Gold                   ABX     NYSE       43.07        +7.8       1.82 
DirecTV Group Inc              DTV     NASD       47.90        +7.2       1.92 
Pfizer                         PFE     NYSE       21.83        +6.9       1.95 
Nike Inc                       NKE     NYSE      112.63        +6.9       1.92 
Mosaic                         MOS     NYSE       58.15        +6.5       1.38 
United Parcel Service B        UPS     NYSE       80.47        +6.4       1.68 
Goldman Sachs                  GS      NYSE      125.05        +6.2       1.21 
YUM! Brands                    YUM     NYSE       69.42        +6.0       2.51 
Vodafone Grp                   VOD     NASD       27.00        +5.6       2.70 
Equinix                        EQIX    NASD      139.12        +5.6       2.19 
Newmont Mining                 NEM     NYSE       53.00        +4.9       1.46 
AT&T                           T       NYSE       31.62        +4.8       1.85 

ISSUE DECLINERS               SYMBOL   EXCH   LAST PRICE   MONEY FLOW    RATIO 
                                                          (in millions) 
Apple                          AAPL    NASD      594.40      -175.7       0.83 
Google                         GOOG    NASD      627.86       -45.0       0.49 
iShrs MSCI Emerg Mkts          EEM     ARCA       43.04       -33.7       0.43 
Bank Of America                BAC     NYSE        9.79       -26.0       0.81 
JPMorgan Chase                 JPM     NYSE       44.65       -20.2       0.60 
Qualcomm                       QCOM    NASD       66.59       -16.7       0.50 
Citigroup                      C       NYSE       37.18       -14.5       0.78 
iShrs Russell 2000             IWM     ARCA       82.89       -13.7       0.75 
El Paso Corp                   EP      NYSE       29.29       -13.4       0.22 
PwrShrs QQQ Tr Series 1        QQQ     NASD       66.56       -12.7       0.66 
Chevron                        CVX     NYSE      109.46       -11.8       0.55 
Tiffany & Co                   TIF     NYSE       73.98       -11.5       0.80 
Oracle                         ORCL    NASD       29.80       -11.3       0.56 
MetLife                        MET     NYSE       38.40       -11.0       0.39 
Chipotle Mexican Grill         CMG     NYSE      411.50       -11.0       0.34 
IBM                            IBM     NYSE      204.07       -10.9       0.66 
Cisco Systems                  CSCO    NASD       20.25       -10.8       0.48 
Intel                          INTC    NASD       27.69       -10.7       0.47 
Amazoncom                      AMZN    NASD      183.34       -10.2       0.70 
Johnson & Johnson              JNJ     NYSE       64.92        -9.9       0.45

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CREDIT SUISSE: 9 REASONS TO STAY BULLISH ON EQUITIES

Source 

“Despite a record breaking run Credit Suisse is sticking to their guns on higher equity prices.  They are now calling for a year end target of 1470 on the S&P 500 and offer 9 reasons to stay bullish:

“(1) Bond yields could rise further… this might help equities
(2) The macro environment is supportive:
-Economic momentum indicators suggests global and US growth is still well above consensus
-The breadth of the US recovery is now impressive: investment; housing; employment; the
process of consumer deleveraging in the US is quite advanced; inventories are low and bank
loan growth has returned
-China easing: half of GDP is coming from emerging markets
-Europe: muddling along but mutualisation is advancing
(3) The dovishnessof central banks and the synchronised QE as the end game
(4) Rising global excess liquidity is consistent with c10% re-rating
(6) Valuations relative to bonds are still attractive
(7) Equities remain the hedge if , as we expect, long term inflation expectations continue to rise.
(8) Positioning still cautious relative to optimistic sentiment
(9) Earnings: upgrades continue, global revisions just turned positive”

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Heads Up on the Profit Recession

Source

“One of the better market calls I’ve seen over the last 10 years was Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg teaming up near the peak of the housing bubble to call for a profit recessionand a full blown recession.  At the time, both were Merrill analysts and I was a daily reader of their research.  Bernstein was the equity guy and Rosenberg was the chief economist and they made one of the better Wall Street research duos around.  They didn’t always agree, but in this case they did.  And boy were they right.

In his latest note Richard Bernstein is growing increasingly concerned about corporate profits.  He says:

“The US corporate profits story, however, is showing the first chink in the armor. The proportion of US companies reporting negative earnings surprises has jumped significantly so far in the current reporting period. With over half of the S&P 500 companies reported, 30% of the companies have reported negative earnings surprises. If reports continued in the same pattern for the remainder of the reporting season, the current reporting period would be the worst since 2008.

It seems increasingly clear that the profits cycle is slowing enough so that one should again consider the probability, albeit still reasonably low, of a profits recession. We are not suggesting that a profits recession is imminent. Rather, we are simply saying that the profits data appears for the first time in this cycle to be weakening enough to warrant consideration of such an outcome.”

I’d echo Bernstein’s note, but with a bit more specificity.  We’ve seen a substantial increase in corporate profits in recent years thanks in large part to the gigantic federal budget deficit.  We know from Kalecki’s work that budget deficits are a primary driver of profits.  And in this cycle that has been particularly pronounced given the balance sheet recession and the weakness in the household sector.   As I’ve noted previously, the odds of recession this year with a near $1 trillion deficit are very low.  I’d say the same is true regarding a profit recession, but as we near 2013 the likelihood of much smaller deficits looms large.  If we go the way of Europe 2013 could turn out to be a double whammy.  Real recession AND profit recession.  Stay tuned.”

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Glencore Agrees $6.15 Billion Deal for Canada’s Viterra

Glencore International Plc (GLEN), the largest publicly traded commodity supplier, agreed to buyViterra Inc. (VT) for C$6.1 billion ($6.15 billion) to add grain assets in Canada and Australia.

Glencore will pay C$16.25 a share, the two companies said in a statement today. Glencore agreed the deal in partnership with Agrium Inc. (AGU) and Richardson International Ltd., which will buy the majority of Viterra’s Canadian and other assets for about C$2.6 billion in cash, according to the statement….”

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MARK MOBIUS: Here Are 2 Great Reasons To Bullish On Emerging Market Stocks

Source 

“Emerging market stocks are poised to do well according to Franklin Templeton’s emerging markets specialist Mark Mobius. Speaking with CNBC he pointed to two clear reasons.

First, he said the selloff in Treasuries will send more money into equities and at least a third of that into emerging market stocks.

Since emerging markets now account for about 30 percent of global market capitalization Mobius said we should expect a corresponding flow into EM stocks.

“People are now beginning to realize that they cannot be sitting on bonds that are paying one, two or even three percent, when inflation is running higher than that. …If you look at equities of course, the yields are much, much greater than the bonds.”

Second, he said emerging markets will benefit from quantitative easing. Mobius said markets can expect to see money supply increase since Fed chairman Ben Bernanke promised to increase liquidity until he saw sustained growth.

Mobius also said he was bullish on Africa because it would gain from investments from countries like Brazil, India and China. Mobius told CNBC that oil prices have not kept pace with inflation and that “there’s some catch up to do.” He said he was bullish on Russia because of the rise in oil prices.”

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The SEC Continues to Push for Change in Money Markets

“(MoneyWatch) COMMENTARY A long-simmering debate about the future of money market funds is heating up, as the SEC signals it wants changes that a fund industry executive on Monday said were “outrageous.” The question, debated in Washington for nearly four years, is whether or not money market share prices should remain fixed at $1 per share, as they have since the first money market fund was created in the 1970s, or whether the share price should be required to “float” to reflect the value of the underlying securities it owns.

Arguing in favor of the fixed share price are fund managers and their trade group, the Investment Company Institute. They contend that a floating share price would scare investors away from money market funds, which would disrupt the financial markets and deprive corporate America of an important source of short-term capital.

Arguing in favor of a floating share price is, well, let’s put it this way: When the Wall Street Journal’s editors, the SEC chair, Paul Volcker, and a blue ribbon commission chartered by President Obama all come out in favor of a floating share price, it’s safe to say that the idea has a broad base of support.

Why is this issue important? Because a fixed share price connotes safety and stability — an investment that’s free from volatility. But while those might be appropriate ways to describe money market funds most of the time, they don’t apply all of the time. While it’s not common, it is possible for the holdings of money market funds to decline enough that the fund is in danger of “breaking the buck” — losing so much on its investments that it can’t return $1 per share to its investors.

When this happens — as it did with one of the nation’s largest money market funds in 2008 — it can create a “run on the bank” mentality as investors scramble to pull their money out before an artificially high $1 share price is lowered. This puts even more downward pressure on prices as fund managers try to sell their holdings to meet these redemptions….”

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