Source

“The executive director of International Energy Agency has released a statement this morning that is pushing crude prices down further today:

The oil market has been tightening in recent months; crude oil prices are very high again, and petrol prices have reached a record high level in some member countries. The International Energy Agency, like many others, is concerned by the impact of these high prices while the global economic recovery remains fragile.

The IEA is closely monitoring market developments and will remain in close contact with member countries to exchange views about the oil-market situation. As we have mentioned many times, the IEA was created to respond to serious physical supply disruptions, and we remain ready to act if market conditions so warrant.

This is a clear indication that the group’s members have reached at least some accord on another release from members’ strategic reserves. With elections on tap in France and later this year in the US and next year in Germany, rising pump prices threaten the re-election hopes of the current governments and nothing would soothe voters more than a drop, even if it’s temporary, in gasoline prices.

Crude prices have sinking again today, with WTI crude down about -2% at $103.28/barrel and Brent crude down about -1% at $122.81/barrel. US pump prices are $0.035 higher today than a week ago according to gasbuddy.com.”

His current target is $2500 over the next 12-18 months…..

Source

In a lecture given to George Washington University students today, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke presented a simple explanation of how long-term asset purchases actually work to stimulate the economy.

His explanation is key to understanding whether or not this was the best course of action for the U.S. at the time.

Bernanke noted that the Federal Reserve traditionally owns a significant quantity of long-term asset purchases, and owned about $800 billion before the crisis.

According to his explanation, here’s how the process worked:

• The Fed began purchasing Treasuries and government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) securities, making them more difficult for commercial banks to obtain.
• In doing so, the Fed drastically increased the demand for Treasuries, so bondholders could raise the price they charged for the securities in comparison to the return.
• This had the effect of reducing interest rates without direct monetary policy, since interest rates are closely related to the rate of return on Treasuries.
• Low availability drove investors to put money in corporate bonds, thus stimulating the economy.

To keep in mind, this chart demonstrates the massive scale of this program.

Click for larger image.

Federal Reserve

Further, Bernanke rebuffed analyst descriptions of how the Fed “printed money” in order to finance these asset purchases. Instead, the Fed credits “the accounts that commercial banks hold with the Fed [which are] part of what’s called the monetary base,” but not part of the cash supply.

In order to offset asset purchases and normalize its balance sheet, the Fed simply ticked up the number of assets that commercial banks held with the Fed. Therefore, the Fed did not add to the cash supply, but it did some behind-the-scenes balance sheet manipulations that had the effect of expanding the money in the system.

This chart breaks down the liabilities side of the Fed’s balance sheet:

Click for larger image.

Federal Reserve

These were inflationary measures, but at the time the Fed was far more worried about deflation than inflation, so on the whole did not consider this a concern.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bernanke-heres-how-qe-works-and-its-not-by-printing-money-2012-3#ixzz1qWzAnJT2

Source

Some parents are so averse to public schools that they’re taking out hefty “pre-college” loans to cover the costs of their child’s full tuition from kindergarten through 12th grade.

SmartMoney’s Annamaria Andriotis describes the risks of this trend:

“Parents could be on the hook to repay K-12 and college loans simultaneously. Already, about one in six parents of college graduates have loans, and they’re projected to owe nearly $34,000 on average this year, according to FinAid.org. Taking on loans before college leaves parents at risk of owing larger sums of debt, experts say.”

Let’s not forget that college students’ loan debt passed the trillion dollar mark months ago, creating some real-live horror stories for millennials. One student, Nick Keith, took on the college debt burden when his father refused to pay, and he has yet to pursue a career.

Also troubling is that the surge in pre-college loan’s popularity coincides with a rise in the cost of private school’s tuition, Andriotis says. The average cost is up nearly $20,000 per year. “

China the sleeping giant has arrived yet again…..

“In the current state of the US economy it’s getting tougher and tougher to find a job. With an unemployment rate of 8.3 percent, according to the latest job numbers, saying yes to a job is a no brainer.

Now imagine in order to get the job you must disclose your Facebook password.

On Tuesday night, House Republicans stopped a measure that would have allowed the Federal Communications Commission to prevent employers from forcing potential employees to disclose their Facebook passwords.

Republicans who are against “big government,” have delivered a huge blow to the legislation that was presented by Democrats.

The purpose of the legislation was part of a bill to implement new restrictions on the FCC rules after a series of cases where employers have requested access to social media accounts.

“What this amendment does is it says you cannot demand as a condition of employment that somebody reveal a confidential password to their Facebook, to their Flickr, to their Twitter, whatever their account may be,” said Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D- Colo.).

According to a post by Facebook, the company has “seen a distressing increase in reports of employers or others seeking to gain inappropriate access to people’s Facebook profiles or private information.”

The social media giant added that the practice “undermines the privacy expectations and the security of both the user and users’ friends.”

According to WANE.com, Anthony Juliano has been keeping a close watch on the growing trend. Juliano, a social media expert said, “it’s really not new, but it’s getting people’s attention because it is controversial,” he said….”

Read more

“Signs of an improving U.S. economy and a liquidity boost from the European Central Bank have lifted expectations for the main U.S. share market indexes, but most of the year’s gains may be in the rear view mirror after a sizable rally, a Reuters poll of market analysts found.

Forecasts for end-2012 levels have increased over 6 percent compared with those made late last year before stocks posted their best first quarter in 14 years.

The median forecast for the Standard & Poor’s 500 at the end of 2012 is now 1,427, compared with 1,340 in December. That represents an expected gain of 13 percent this year, according to the median forecast given by the 40 respondents polled over the last week.

But with the market up almost 12 percent already, there may be little left to add. The projected rise of 1.5 percent from now until the end of the year is the weakest of any of the 20 stock indexes around the world covered by the Reuters survey.

Still, that follows a blistering rally that has seen the best first quarter since 1998 and pushed the S&P 500 up over 30 percent from lows hit in October.

Much of the rally has been attributed to signs of a better U.S. jobs market as well as the European Central Bank removing the immediate risk of a banking crisis by advancing cheap loans to the region’s banks.

“This is not a year about economic growth or earnings growth, it’s about fear receding, the crisis premium coming out of risk assets,” said Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at BlackRock, which manages $1.56 trillion in equities.

The ECB funneled over 1 trillion euros into the financial system with twin ultra-cheap funding operations in December and February to head off a credit crunch that risked exacerbating the euro zone crisis and threatening the currency bloc’s future.

Doll’s year-end target this year is 1,350, but he has said the S&P could rise as high as 1,550 if the conditions are right.

“If Europe stays off the front page and things remain acceptable in the Middle East, we could see another 10 percent from here,” he said.

U.S. unemployment has fallen to 8.3 percent from 9 percent in September, which has supported the market. But Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said this week that recent data may be presenting too optimistic a picture, suggesting monetary policy will remain accommodative.

BLOWING BUBBLES…”

Read more 

Source 

“President Barack Obama challenged Congress on Thursday to repeal billions of dollars in tax breaks for the biggest U.S. energy companies, saying they are raking in record profits while Americans struggle with higher gasoline prices.

“Today, members of Congress have a simple choice to make. They can stand with big oil companies, or they can stand with the American people,” he said at an event in the White House Rose Garden highlighting one of the hottest issues in the U.S. presidential campaign.

“Last year, the three biggest U.S. oil companies took home more than $80 billion in profit. Exxon pocketed nearly $4.7 million every hour,” Obama said.
Instead of rewarding oil companies, the United States should “double down” on clean energy, Obama said in his speech.

“Keep in mind, we can’t just drill our way out of this problem,” Obama said before a crowd of about 100 people, including representatives of environmental groups and Americans affected by the rising cost of gasoline.

The U.S. Senate was to vote on Thursday on legislation backed by Democrats that would eliminate more than $24 billion in tax deductions granted to big oil companies over the next decade. The measure would also extend some tax breaks intended to foster clean energy initiatives.”

Oil is getting smashed below the $104.88 support level…down $1.93

Gold is trading down$9.20 @ $1,648.70

The VIX is up 10.6% to 17.11 (potential double top)

Banks lead the overall downside action 

DOW down 70 @ 13,055

S&P down 12 @ 1,393

NASDAQ down 32 @ 3072

Full look

NYPOST.com Exclusive 

Eddie Lampert is cleaning out the closet at Sears, and he’s not feeling sentimental about Lands’ End.

The number-crunching hedge-fund tycoon — who, as chairman of Sears Holdings, has lately been scrambling to raise cash amid heavy losses at the Sears and Kmart retail chains — has quietly been shopping the Dodgeville Wis. mail-order catalog to potential buyers, The Post has learned.

Lampert, who inherited Lands’ End when he took control of Sears in 2005 by merging it with Kmart, has approached a handful of private-equity firms as he looks to raise as much as $2 billion in cash, sources said.

AP

Sears boss Eddie Lampert is shopping the retailer’s underperforming khaki-andplaid Lands’ End brand, which he bought for just under $2B a decade ago.

While it’s early in the process, sources said that Lampert is likely to tap Goldman Sachs to run the sale.

Last month, Sears said it had moved to raise upwards of $750 million by selling 11 stores and spinning off some smaller-format stores as it disclosed it lost $3.1 billion last year.

Sears has since cut a deal to sell three prize stores in Canada for $170 million.

“Everybody is talking to Sears about buying back stores,” according to a real-estate source. “It stinks of desperation.”

A Sears spokeswoman yesterday said the retailer doesn’t “comment on rumor or speculation.”

Lampert is looking to find a buyer who will license Lands’ End to Sears while pursuing growth elsewhere, possibly in Europe, according to a source.

“The idea is that Lands’ End would become something like Tommy Hilfiger,” according to the source, noting that the global brand’s clothing is licensed exclusively to Macy’s in the US.

Nevertheless, many insiders question whether the hard-bargaining billionaire could fully recover the $1.86 billion shelled out in 2002 by former Sears CEO Alan Lacy — a price tag that was widely viewed as inflated at the time.

That’s because Lands’ End — which had seen torrid growth in the 1990s as a family destination for khakis, cardigans and sensible swimsuits — hasn’t grown much under the Sears umbrella.

Sears has mostly kept mum about the brand’s financial performance in recent years, but sources said its profitability hasn’t changed much either, generating between $150 million and $200 million annually in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda.

While Sears had paid more than 10 times Ebitda for Lands’ End, today’s rocky retail environment makes a deal more likely in the $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion range, bankers said.

Lands’ End’s upscale image was an awkward fit from the beginning for Sears, whose stores have become increasingly shabby as Lampert has slashed capital spending.

While it’s rare for a brand to rebound, Martha Stewart has been successful at Macy’s despite a previous stint at Kmart, notes Michael Stone of the Beanstalk Group, a branding consultant.

“A lot of people remember Lands’ End before it went to Sears,” Stone said. “It can certainly be brought back to its former glory by the right company.”
Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/lands_end_game_5p3ePLWUD0sqSpTPERJGeM#ixzz1qWI6UmuU

Interesting read here….

Researchers have found a whole lot of real estate on our cosmic doorstep…..

3 D heat map 

S&P A/D Lines

NASDAQ A/D Lines 

NYSE

New Highs 18 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
AVG Technologies              AVG         15.49               20,280 
Aetna                         AET         49.12            2,707,070 
Amer Vanguard                 AVD         21.42               54,946 
Annie's Inc.                  BNNY        40.00              654,509 
Bluegreen Corp                BXG         4.30                11,096 
Corrections Corp Of Amer      CXW         27.11               61,745 
Demandware Inc                DWRE        31.84               78,229 
Exelis Inc.                   XLS         12.88               57,134 
Fedl Ag Mtge Corp Cl A        AGM/A       18.18                  300 
HBFuller                      FUL         33.40              165,835 
Hels High Income Fund         HIH         8.82                 6,711 
Kilroy Realty Corp Pfd G      KRCpG       25.10               20,200 
LeapFrog Cl A                 LF          8.49               128,968 
Markel Corp                   MKL         451.90              10,399 
Movado Group                  MOV         24.78              127,167 
Red Hat Inc                   RHT         57.17            2,648,476 
UnitedHealth Group            UNH         57.05            2,401,565 
Xinyuan Real Estate           XIN         3.15               153,271 

New Lows 16 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Alliant Techsys               ATK         49.81               20,371 
Alpha Natural Res             ANR         14.54            2,404,350 
AngloGold Ashanti             AU          36.07              374,519 
Baker Hughes                  BHI         40.41            1,308,122 
Banco Bradesco ADS            BBDO        15.00                7,200 
Bill Barrett                  BBG         25.43               95,726 
Gold Field ADS                GFI         13.42              424,131 
Harmony Gold Mining           HMY         10.58              259,849 
KT Crp ADS                    KT          13.72              300,983 
Kinross Gold                  KGC         9.57               997,155 
NRG Energy                    NRG         15.87              240,330 
Newmont Mining                NEM         50.62            1,531,885 
RadioShack                    RSH         6.22             1,139,711 
Taro Pharmaceutical Indus     TARO        38.95                3,950 
Transalta Corp                TAC         18.61               23,540 
Vocera Communications         VCRA        20.20               93,206

NASDAQ

New Highs 20 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Acorn Energy                  ACFN        9.96                47,853 
Angie's List                  ANGI        19.82               11,382 
Bassett Furniture Inds        BSET        9.25                 3,125 
BBC Capital Trust II 8.5%     BBXT        32.15                7,100 
Cisco Systems                 CSCO        21.24            7,825,033 
Dynavax Techs                 DVAX        4.93               100,569 
EXACT Sciences                EXAS        11.02              103,127 
Fossil                        FOSL        135.98             322,353 
Hooker Furniture              HOFT        13.90                5,217 
Loral Space & Comm            LORL        82.48               23,978 
Macatawa Bank                 MCBC        3.50                11,400 
Monster Beverage              MNST        62.32              123,435 
Nautilus Marine Acqn          NMAR        10.00                  200 
ORBCOMM                       ORBC        3.90                 6,265 
OptimumBank Hldgs             OPHC        5.43               232,494 
Pacific Mercantile Bncp       PMBC        5.48                 2,400 
Repligen                      RGEN        5.80                63,512 
Threshold Pharmaceuticals     THLD        8.74             1,966,575 
US Ecology                    ECOL        21.76               10,341 
Wayne Savings Bncshrs         WAYN        9.48                   200 

New Lows 13 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
A123 Sys Inc                  AONE        1.16               812,024 
Cardiome Pharma               CRME        0.72                34,556 
China Yida Hldg Co            CNYD        1.43                21,023 
CommTouch Software            CTCH        2.83                 8,633 
Ctripcom Intl                 CTRP        21.54              352,644 
G Willi Food Intl Ltd         WILC        3.91                 8,717 
iGo                           IGOI        0.55                64,105 
MDC Partners  (Cl A)          MDCA        11.32                4,561 
Mission NewEnergy             MNEL        0.47                19,120 
Peregrine Pharma              PPHM        0.48               425,142 
Stereotaxis                   STXS        0.66                67,745 
Swisher Hygiene               SWSH        2.57               290,074 
Ultrapetrol (Bahamas)         ULTR        2.05                 6,298

 -CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
BAC        3/30/12          10.0000         500            0.0200      dn 0.0100 
AAPL       3/30/12         615.0000         375            3.4000      dn 2.0100 
MMR        5/19/12          14.0000         170            0.4500      dn 0.1200 
MMR        4/21/12          17.0000         170            0.0800      up 0.0200 
BAC        5/19/12           8.0000         145            1.8200      dn 0.0400 
AAPL       3/30/12         620.0000         125            1.7300      dn 1.1400 
WFC        4/21/12          39.0000         123            0.0100      dn 0.0100 
CSCO       3/30/12          21.0000         110            0.1900      up 0.0100 
GLD        3/30/12         163.0000         110            0.1700      dn 0.1800 
F          4/21/12          13.0000         106            0.1100      up 0.0100 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
BAC        4/21/12           9.0000         342            0.1900      up 0.0200 
AAPL       3/30/12         610.0000         155            2.3100      up 0.6600 
AAPL       3/30/12         615.0000         141            4.0500      up 1.1500 
DOW        4/21/12          33.0000         108            0.6400      up 0.1400 
BBY        4/21/12          24.0000          77            0.4900      up 0.0500 
AAPL       3/30/12         600.0000          73            0.7400      up 0.2400 
RIMM       4/21/12          13.0000          68            0.9200      up 0.0200 
PBR        5/19/12          24.0000          56            0.5400      up 0.2200 
BHP        4/21/12          65.0000          54            0.5500      up 0.1600 
GMCR       3/30/12          50.0000          54            1.9200      up 0.7900 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
19235    11809        31044

 -CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
BBY        4/21/12          27.0000        7702            0.1600      dn 0.8400 
BBY        4/21/12          29.0000        2824            0.0400      dn 0.2900 
AAPL       3/30/12         615.0000        2367            3.8000      dn 1.6800 
AAPL       3/30/12         620.0000        2229            1.8200      dn 1.1700 
AAPL       3/30/12         610.0000        2008            7.0500      dn 1.9000 
BIDU       3/30/12         145.0000        1543            2.6800      dn 1.1700 
RHT        4/21/12          57.5000        1315            1.3200      up 1.0200 
C          3/30/12          37.0000        1306            0.1300      dn 0.2500 
INTC       4/21/12          28.0000        1298            0.6000      up 0.0400 
BIDU        4/5/12         150.0000        1264            1.5300      dn 0.2200 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
RIMM       3/30/12          12.0000        2744            0.2800      up 0.0500 
RIMM       3/30/12          13.0000        2045            0.6000      up 0.0600 
AMD        7/21/12           7.0000        2000            0.3200      up 0.0200 
AAPL       3/30/12         610.0000        1865            2.2600      up 0.6900 
XOM        7/21/12          80.0000        1679            1.5600      up 0.1100 
AAPL       3/30/12         615.0000        1366            4.1100      up 1.0600 
BP         3/30/12          44.0000        1300            0.4400      up 0.3200 
BP         3/30/12          43.0000        1300            0.0900      up 0.0500 
BAC        4/21/12           9.0000        1268            0.1900      up 0.0300 
ILMN       4/21/12          50.0000        1138            1.0000      dn 1.1500 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
277024    253878        530902

Source

“During bullish market advances there is a lot of faulty analysis done in order to promote a bullish bias.  Wells Fargo Advisors today pretty much just captured the gold in this competition with this piece of lunacy via Bloomberg:  “Wells Fargo Advisors examined return for stocks over next 10 yrs when the start date is three years into a bull market and found in prior cycles that stocks have risen a median of 162%; implies S&P 500 can reach ~3700 by 2022.

• Firm examined five prior cycles starting in year 3 of bull market: Chief Equities Strategist Stuart Freeman in note yesterday
• 1973-1983, 1977-1987, 1983-1993, 1985-1995, 1993-2003
• 2006 cycle only 6 yrs old, posting 12% return
• 10-yr returns range from low of 57% for ’73-’83 cycle to high of 194% for ’85-’95 cycle
• “What we are suggesting is that there is much evidence the last 40-plus years of later-cycle returns following the first upleg in cyclical bull markets and periods of mid- cycle meandering”

report developing….

Think regional

“The threat of a double-dip recession is a thing of the past, and even the ailing housing sector is starting to turn around support the overall economy, says Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase.

The economy is poised to continue growing, and banks are planning for more growth, and not for a return to recession.

“No one can forecast the economy with certainty,” Dimon tells CNBC, “but most of us in business [have] got growth plans that have nothing to do with the actual state of the economy.”

Read more 

Full report