WikiLeaks Begins Publishing 5 million Emails from STRATFOR

Here are the hybrid movers from last Friday, click here for charts.

Courtesy of The PPT

by Michael Levi
February 24, 2012

Rising gasoline prices have a way of bringing out the hidden energy pundit in all of us. Most speculation tends to focus on why oil prices might be rising and on how high they might go. But a second strand of questioning is probably even more important: What do rising prices mean for the world? There’s a lot of wisdom that’s accumulated over the past few decades in attempts to answer that question. But I have to wonder whether there aren’t some fundamental changes that might render a lot of it obsolete.

By JohnThomas Didymus

With just a week to go before Google changes to its new privacy policy that allows it to gather, store and use personal information, users have a last chance to delete their Google Browsing History, along with any damning information therein.

Tech News Daily reports that once Google’s new unified privacy policy takes effect all data already collected about you, including search queries, sites visited, age, gender and location will be gathered and assigned to your online identity represented by your Gmail and YouTube accounts. After the policy takes effect you are not allowed to opt out without abandoning Google altogether. But now before the policy takes effect, you have the option of deleting your Google Web History by modifying your settings so that Google is unable to associate data collected about you with your Gmail or YouTube accounts.

Tech News Daily reports that Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF), a nonprofit organization based in San Francisco that advocates for online privacy, says: “Search data can reveal particularly sensitive information about you, including facts about your location, interests, age, sexual orientation, religion, health concerns, and more.” EFF advises all Google users to delete their web history.

Read the rest here.

A must read, concise yet detailed, well-sourced expose. Even the most lay of layperson can understand this presentation.

Here is the .pdf: The Skeptics Case

Joe Weisenthal

In just a matter of a few days, gasoline prices have become a major worry for people pondering what might drag down the U.S. economy.

The essence of the problem is this chart, posted by CFR’s Blake Clayton (via Brad Plumer):

CFR

Given where we are in the year, prices are unusually high. And if trends hold, then the national average will be well over the $4 freakout point sometime this summer.

But whenever the discussion turns to gas and oil, logic tends to die, and people start coming up with all kinds of bizarre explanations for what’s going on — explanations such as the Bernanke’s money printing, Obama’s domestic energy policy, Obama’s foreign policy, speculators, price gougers, and so on.

So we thought it would be a good time to just clear up some misconceptions, and explain what’s really driving the price.

Of course, you can’t start a discussion about gasoline without talking about oil. So let’s begin there.

John Paulson, the hedge fund manager seeking to rebound from record losses in 2011, told investors his Gold Fund will outperform his other strategies over five years, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

The billionaire, at a meeting yesterday at the Metropolitan Club in New York, said the metal is the best hedge against currency debasement as countries inject money into their economies, said the person, who attended the event and asked not to be named because the information is private. Paulson also cited gold as a hedge against the euro currency, as a breakup may occur, and an eventual increase in inflation.

The manager told clients his own money comprises 55 percent of the Gold Fund’s $1.2 billion in assets, the person said. The fund, which can buy derivatives and other gold-related securities, declined 11 percent last year after the metal slumped 14 percent in the final four months.

Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may continue to affect bullion in the near term, Paulson, whose firm manages $23 billion, said this month in a year-end letter to investors. The metal serves as the best long-term alternative to paper currencies, he said.

“We remain excited about the outlook for the Paulson Gold Funds over the next few years,” he said in the letter. “We would argue that the potential upside in gold outweighs the potential downside.”

Armel Leslie, a spokesman for New York-based Paulson & Co., declined to comment on the meeting with investors.

Read the rest here.

By Derek Kravitz, AP Real Estate Writer | Associated Press – Wed, Feb 15, 2012 5:01 PM EST

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. homebuilders are gradually growing more optimistic about the depressed housing market and believe homes sales could pick up sharply when the spring buying season begins.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo said Wednesday that its builder sentiment index rose for a fifth straight month in February to 29, up from 25 in January. The index has climbed 15 points since September and is now at its highest level since May 2007.

Builders have generally become more hopeful during that stretch about current sales, sales six months out and foot traffic, the report shows.

Even with the brighter outlook, the industry has a long way to go. Any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the housing market. The index hasn’t reached 50 since April 2006, the peak of the housing boom.

A key reason homebuilders are more optimistic is they are seeing more people express interest in buying a home. And rising interest has occurred alongside other improvements that suggest the troubled housing market could pick up after four weak years.

Sales of previously occupied homes rose in December for a third straight month. Mortgage rates have never been lower. And home construction picked up in the final quarter of last year.

Still, home prices continue to fall, and builders keep slashing their prices to stay competitive. Last year was the worst for new-home sales on records dating back to 1963.

Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, said the index is now consistent with new-home sales rising to more than 450,000 annually. While that’s below the 700,000 considered healthy, it would be an improvement from the recent trend of just over 300,000.

“The story here is that pent-up demand is being freed by much easier mortgage conditions, low rates and rising employment,” Shepherdson said. “It’s real.”

Read the rest here.

When the going gets tough, investors seek help from investment professionals. That is the conventional wisdom, but it seems that the worst economic downturn in the lives of most of today’s investors has prompted an unconventional response.

New research suggests that after going through a harrowing investment experience during the financial crisis, investors have emerged ready, willing and able to go it alone.

“The mainstream investor is increasingly self-directed in their decision making,” said Sophie Schmidt, an analyst with Aite Group LLC. “The online brokerages grew assets by close to $1 trillion between 2008 and 2010.”

GAINING MARKET SHARE

The consultant estimates that online brokers gained 3 percentage points of market share during that period while the wirehouses lost 1.1 percentage points and other retail brokerages lost 4 percentage points.

Between 2008 and 2010, assets on such direct-investing platforms as Charles Schwab & Co. Inc., Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, TD Ameritrade Inc. and The Vanguard Group Inc. grew to $3.7 trillion, from $2.6 trillion, according to research released last week by Cerulli Associates Inc. Numbers aren’t yet available for last year.

Read the rest here.

By Steven Russolillo

Sears shares aren’t showing signs of fading anytime soon.

Sears shares have followed up yesterday’s 19% surge with another 6% advance as investors keep buying into Eddie Lampert’s plan to rebuild the brand.

Today’s surge means shares of Sears have more than doubled since the beginning of 2012. It’s been a staggering reversal of fortunes for a company that is mired in a deep transformation effort. Short covering has played a role as has Mr. Lampert’s increased stake in the company.

But few expected this kind of sharp return, especially after Sears was one of the S&P 500′s worst performers last year.

Shares are up 6% at $65.41. The stock is up 106% in 2012, the top performer in the S&P 500. Netflix is the only other stock within the index that has had at least a 50% run-up this year.

The sharp rally still hasn’t prompted Credit Suisse analyst Gary Balter to change his stance on Sears.

“We believe the equity valuation is well out of line with comparable retailers,” he says, while reiterating an underperform rating and $20 price target.

Read the rest here.

SHAME ON BEN AND JERRY’S. SHAME.

Full Article

An excellent essay, The Curse of Seven, via the Psy-Fi Blog.

Excerpt:

Investing Overload

Information overload leads us into some quite nasty investing behaviours: we ignore parts of the data presented, we favour recent, vivid and easily available information over other types and gravitate towards well presented arguments, even if they’re spurious, as described here by Thomas Moellers. Basically, the idea that more information is better than less when it comes to stock analysis is wrong, unless you have a well-honed mental model and proper support tools. One of the simpler ways is to build a checklist of items that you need to cross-check: the valuation fundamentals that you’re interested in, the competitive position, the previous track record of the directors, or whatever.

via Climate Audit

Steve McIntyre

Some years ago, Daniel Butler hosted a television show called “America’s Dumbest Criminals” (trailer), entry to which Peter Gleick richly deserves.

In an interview some years later, Butler said that his favorite story was the robbers who had apparently planned the perfect gas station robbery. They took the licence plates off their van, wore ski masks. When the police arrived, they asked the attendant the usual questions, but there were no clues. Just when the police were leaving, the attendant volunteered that they’d left their phone number. In the rear window of the van, there was a For Sale sign with a phone number. The attendant had written down the phone number as the van left. The police called the phone number, inquired about buying the van, went for a test drive with the robber and drove him to the station.

Jay Leno described another incident, where the would-be bank robber demanded $40 million (milllllll-yun?). The teller said that they didn’t have that much on hand and suggested that he accept a cheque for $400,000. The robber agreed and gave the teller his name. She wrote him the agreed cheque, payment on which was stopped by the bank. When the robber tried to deposit the cheque into his own account, he was arrested.

Two Aussies achieved minor celebrity as bungling bank robbers in Colorado. They wore ski masks and goggles when they robbed a ski resort, but also wore name tags. It took the cops a mere eight minutes to identify them.

In another incident, a Tennessee policeman stopped porn starlet Barbi Cummings on a traffic violation. She then provided him with sexual favors in the back seat of the police car. The policeman took pictures of the encounter on his cell phone. He then emailed Miss Cummings and asked her to post the picture on her website so that he could prove the encounter to his pals. Miss Cummings reported that she still had to pay the traffic ticket as the cop had already called in the offence.

All of these felons were dumb, but they were all convicted and served time.

The newest entrant into the hallowed ranks of America’s Dumbest Criminals is surely Peter Gleick, MacArthur Genius. Gleick, who fancied himself the scourge of climate skeptics and imagined that Heartland’s climate program was funded by fossil fuel corporations and the Koch brothers, managed to trick a Heartland administrator and obtain confidential financial information by fraudulently impersonating a Heartland director. But the actual documents didn’t show that Gleick was feared by Heartland. Nor was even he mentioned. Nor did the documents show that Heartland’s climate program was funded by fossil fuel corporations or the Koch brothers.

So Gleick forged a document placing himself as Heartland’s nemesis, garnering the recognition and praise from Andy Revkin and others that he so desired.

His forged document read like an epistle from Dr Evil. (Megan McArdle of the Atlantic used the phrase “secret villain lair”). And like the famous scene where Dr Evil’s henchmen are dumbfounded by Dr Evil’s plan to extort a mere “milllll-yun” dollars for not destroying the world, one can picture the supposed Heartland henchmen in consternation at Dr Evil’s proposed Confidential Strategy against [long Dr Evil pause ….] Peter Gleiiiiiick. #2, #3 and the rest must have been scratching their heads. Not Al Gore. Not James Hansen. Not even the Climategaters. Peeeeeeeter Gleiiiiiiick.

And like Leno’s bank robber and the snowboarding Aussies, Gleick was identified almost immediately. Within hours of the so-called Confidential Strategy being announced as a fake, Steve Mosher identified Gleick as its author. In addition to painting himself into the picture, Gleick had written parts of the document in his own distinctive style – with distinctive word choices and punctuation. And even saved the scan in Pacific time zone.

Gleick has thus far confessed only to the fraudulent obtaining of actual documents, but has claimed innocence on the forgery. He claims that he was set up. By an evil genius who had put Gleick’s name in the forged document and written portions in Gleick’s distinctive style. Possibly by Dr Evil himself (who was unavailable for comment.)

Even if this part of Gleick’s impossible story were true (and the evidence against it is overwhelming), it would not prevent his entry into the hallowed halls of America’s Dumbest Criminals, in which he has surely garnered a place of particular honor. MacArthur Genius and America’s Dumbest Criminal.

Source

“Saudi Arabia has backed the arming of Syria‘s opposition guerrilla army in remarks that could signal an intervention by the Sunni Muslim superpower in the Assad regime’s crackdown against the uprising.

The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, described the arming of the Free Syria Army as an “excellent idea” at an inaugural meeting inTunisia of an anti-Assad group – the Friends of Syria.

But the Saudi delegation later walked out of the summit citing “inactivity” among the member states gathered….”

Read more

Not surprising at all….

The State Department is wasrning of WMDs in Syria and questioning what will happen if Assad falls….

“Jeffrey Gundlach, one of the world’s leading bond fund managers, on Friday warned that the rallying U.S. stock and corporate debt markets are highly vulnerable to a major reversal.

The investor, who was crowned by Barron’s as the new “King of Bonds” a year ago, said in an interview that he thinks the recent rally in stocks, which last week drove the Dow Jones industrial average above 13,000 points for the first time since May 2008, has gone too far.

Gundlach, the chief executive officer and chief investment officer of the $28 billion DoubleLine Capital LP, said he is still concerned about the euro zone crisis and deepening tensions in the Middle East.

The United Nations’ nuclear agency said on Friday that Iran has sharply stepped up its uranium enrichment drive in a report that will further inflame Israeli and Western fears that Tehran is pushing ahead with an atomic weapons program.

“It’s an awfully easy decision right now to not be making further investments in risk assets,” Gundlach said.

“The pricing of the market has returned to the levels prior to the scales falling from investors’ eyes regarding the global financial crisis, and I really don’t think that’s appropriate,” he said.

The Dow has gained 8 percent since December and the broader S&P 500 index is up roughly 10 percent.

The size of the gain leaves no cushion of safety given all the dangers in the world economy and leaves the stock market as priced for disaster as it was when the financial crisis hit in 2008, Gundlach argued.

“When I look at the pricing in the market today, I see a good chance of downside movement of some significance,” he said….”

Read more:  

“The latest Greek bailout totaling 130 billion euros would merely buy time, outgoing World Bank President Robert Zoellick said in an interview in Singapore with Reuters.

JHSB | ChinaFotoPress | Getty Images

“It’s too early to know, partly it depends on the actions the Greeks have to take,” he said. “I think that the European Union has dealt with Greece as one element but the core elements are really going to be the success of some of the bigger countries, such as Italy and Spain.”

But he said bailouts weren’t necessary for these two countries or Portugal.

“Each country’s situation is different and you really have three interconnected problems. For some it’s the size of the sovereign debt, for some it’s the effect on the banking industry, and for some it’s their competitiveness,” he said adding that “Spain and Italy need time to make the reforms.”

“But I do think that all this is harder to accomplish when there is a recession in Europe.”

Support from other European nations was also crucial.

“What I’ve tried to suggest, given the politics of reform in some of the Mediterranean countries, (is that) it will be important for Germany and other leaders in the process to show some prospects if the reforms are taken and how they will be supported by the other European countries.”

Zoellick heads next to China for the release on Monday of a major economic report by the bank and a Chinese government think tank, looking at economic opportunities and challenges to the year 2030.

Global Economy, China and Oil….”

Read more

Perhaps we should stay a little longer now that we have stirred up the hornet’s nest…..