The Federal Reserve, ending a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, repeated its view that the economy faces “significant downside risks” but it offered little to suggest it was close to launching another round of bond-buying to prop up growth.
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Its forecasts pointed to somewhat weaker economic growth this year and next, compared with Fed estimates published in November.
It did say, however, that it would maintain a “highly accommodative” monetary policy stance.
Earlier Wednesday, the Fed pushed back the likely timing of an eventual interest rate hike until late 2014, much later than it had previously said, because of the still-sluggish economic recovery.
In a historic step that it has touted as an effort toward greater transparency, the Fed also announced an official inflation target of 2 percent, and for the first time published individual policymakers’ forecasts for the federal funds rate.
These showed quite a wide range of views, including three of 17 policymakers who expect rates will need to rise this year and two others who do not see any increase until 2016.
Still, the biggest concentration of estimates was around 2014.
The assurance that rates would remain near zero for at least some 18 months longer than previously believed was enough to drive a steep rally in U.S. government bonds and push stocks into positive territory.
Economic conditions “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014,” the central bank said in a statement.
Many investors had expected the Fed to push its expectations for the first rate hike into 2014, but few had thought it would be late in the year. After every previous policy meeting dating back to August, the Fed had said rates were not likely to rise until mid-2013.
The central bank also appeared more sanguine on the inflation outlook, suggesting prices were now rising at a pace consistent with policymakers’ goals. The statement also dropped a reference saying the Fed was monitoring inflation and inflation expectations.
Aside from the 2014 rate pledge, the Fed’s statement hewed closely to its last policy pronouncement in mid-December. It described the unemployment rate as still elevated and said it expects inflation to remain at levels consistent with stable prices.
In a slight shift, it acknowledged signs that business investment has slowed.
“I think what they are seeing is that the rate of growth is not sufficient to bring down the unemployment rate,” said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at FOREX.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker, an inflation hawk who rotated into a voting seat this year, dissented against the decision.
He preferred to omit the description of the time period for ultra-low rates.
In response to the deepest recession in generations, the Fed slashed the overnight federal funds rate to near zero in December 2008.
It has also more than tripled the size of its balance sheet to around $2.9 trillion through two separate bond purchase programs.
The policy is credited with having prevented an even more devastating downturn, but it has been insufficient to bring unemployment down to levels considered normal during good economic times.
In December, the U.S. jobless rate stood at 8.5 percent, and some 13 million Americans were still actively looking for work but could not find it.
While forecasters expect the U.S. economy grew at a 3 percent annual rate in the last three months of 2011, they look for growth of just around 2 percent this year.
Fed officials appear likely to bide their time in determining whether more monetary stimulus is needed.
Many economists expect they will eventually decide on another spurt of Fed bond buying – probably one focused on mortgage debt.
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