First Estimate of Solar Cycle 25 Amplitude – may be the smallest in over 300 years
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Cue the global warming/ice age/ carbon VAT taxes debate
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/06/what-if-the-sun-went-into-a-new-grand-minimum/
“Solar physicists do not yet understand how an extended solar-activity low like the Maunder Minimum arises. Yet there is recent observational evidence for an unusual behavior of the Sun during the current cycle 24, including a missing zonal wind flow within the Sun, decreasing magnetic field strength of sunspots and lower activity around the poles of the Sun. These observations prompted Frank Hill and colleagues to suggest that the Sun might enter a new Maunder-like minimum after the current 11-year cycle ends (i.e. after 2020 or so).
It remains to be seen whether this prognosis turns out to be true (there have been some doubts expressed), but since grand minima of solar activity did occur in the past, it is certainly interesting to explore what effects such a minimum might have on 21st century climate if it did occur. This is precisely the question Stefan Rahmstorf and I investigated in a study published last year (see also our press release. (Earlier estimates for the size of this effect can be found here and here.) In our study we find that a new Maunder Minimum would lead to a cooling of 0.3°C in the year 2100 at most – relative to an expected anthropogenic warming of around 4°C. (The amount of warming in the 21st century depends on assumptions about future emissions, of course).”
Lol….they are expected warming of 4C this century. My gawd man, their models are so fucked. Not a single model, NOT ONE has predicted the lack of continued warming over the past 15 years.
There are many scientists calling for the models’ ranges to be adjusted, with most calling for now using the lower end of the projected range, which would be between 1 and 2C over this century.
Now, let’s consider that maybe the flawed models, who haven’t be right for 15 years, suddenly turn correct, but we only warm by 2C. Add in the new solar minimum and we may very well have cooling.
The key point- all this warminista research uses the same flawed models to project future temperature.
You gotta love the warmers. The sun may go colder than it has in 300 years, and they produce research that says, nope, the Earth will keep warming anyway…lol…yeah.
Flat earther!
The models didn’t account for water vapor (clouds), IIRC. Don’t know about now.
The models extrapolate a linear trend from a flawed data set.
That’s right, these guys are not better than chart monkey technical analysts drawing lines all over shit and calling it science.
It has to be carbon that is evil, right? I mean afterall the earth had carbon levels 20 times higher than it does now in prehistoric days.