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Monthly Archives: May 2011

Marc Farber: Beware of false breakouts in stocks

“Swiss investor Marc Faber has just released his latest issue of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report where he discussed his outlook for the stock market, gold, emerging markets, and other financial topics. Here are a few highlights from the report:”


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Jim O’Neil Becoming a Former Bull on China

“Goldman’s Jim O’Neill is the man who invented BRICs, and he’s been a fervent China bull.

And yet in his latest monthly note, he’s concerned.

Basically, he’s not seeing China shift its growth strategy the way he’d like. Inflation is still torrid, and the central bank is being forced to resort to blunt instruments….”

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Upgrades and Downgrades This Morning

Upgrades

SPG – Simon Properties target raised to $130 from $120 at RBC Capital Mkts

APA – Apache target raised to $150 from $130 at Oppenheimer

HUM – Humana target raised to $83 from $62 at Oppenheimer

MCP – Molycorp target raised to $125 at Dahlman Rose

JKS – JinkoSolar Holding target raised to $35 from $32 at Brean Murray

SABA – Saba Software initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $15

AWI – Armstrong World Industries target raised to $55 from $50 at RBC Capital Mkts

ADP – Automatic Data target raised to $60 from $52 at RBC Capital Mkts

CGNX – Cognex target raised to $42 from $35 at Needham – following earnings

DiSH – DISH Network target raised to $35 from $30 at RBC Capital Mkts

GPRO – Gen-Probe target raised to $90 from $57 at RBC Capital Mkts

FSRV – FirstService initiated with an Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $45

Downgrades

DNDN – Dendreon target lowered to $60 from $65 at Brean Murray

IMAX – IMAX initiated with a Hold at Stifel Nicolaus

VZ – Verizon downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Citadel

CHU – China Unicom Hong Kong downgraded to Underperform at Macquarie

KKD – Krispy Kreme initiated with a Neutral at Janney Montgomery Scott

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Gapping Up and Down This Morning

Gapping Up

LEE +22.5%, HLF +7.1%, VVUS +7.1%, FMC +1.7%, MCP +1.2%, DVA +5.9%, FE +5.8%,CGNX +11.5%, EBS +4.7%, CTIC +4%, SCSS +3.8%, AEIS +11%, CRUS +3.8%, HIG +3.6%, BGC +2.7%,  FRPT +9.8%, SYKE +9.5%

Gapping Down

PRXL -18.3%, TXRH -3.4%, VOD -2.2%, NBS -2.1%, BHP -1.5%, ATSG -3.1%, DMED -3%, ROC -2.2%,  COOL -17.1%, CHK -3.6%, LPSN -3.6%, SWSH -8%, NETL -5.1%, MG -4%

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Asian Countries Make Good on Diversifying Out of Foreign Reserves

“Asian nations are pooling funds to strengthen regional investment, in a step toward diversifying record foreign-exchange holdings as the U.S. dollar declines.

Ten Southeast Asian nations, along with ChinaJapan and South Korea, plan to discuss an infrastructure fund to boost investment in roads, ports and utilities at a meeting of finance officials that started today in Hanoi. Policy makers have agreed to look for “new avenues” for reserves, the Philippine central bank chief said last month, urging greater use of China’s yuan.

More than a decade after the 1997-98 Asian crisis depleted reserves and forced countries from Indonesia to South Korea to seek bailouts, the region’s holdings have risen to about $6 trillion, half held by China. With the dollar remaining the dominant reserve asset, the currency’s decline threatens to erode returns on Asia’s stockpile….”

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European Stocks Fall Led by Auto Companies

“European stocks declined, snapping the longest winning streak in 10 months for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as carmakers retreated. U.S. index futures and Asian shares dropped.

Volkswagen AG (VOW) led a gauge of auto companies lower as a report stoked speculation that Germany may raise taxes on company cars. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) led mining companies lower as copper declined in LondonHannover Re slid 2.8 percent after the world’s third-biggest reinsurer cut its profit forecast. Man Group Plc (EMG) led advancing shares after starting a fund in Japan.

The Stoxx 600 fell 0.7 percent to 281.98 at 11:24 a.m. in London after eight days of gains pushed the measure to a two- month high. The gauge in April had the biggest monthly increase so far this year as companies reported earnings that topped analyst estimates and the Federal Reservemaintained its pledge to keep interest rates low for an “extended period.”

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U.K. Manufacturing Drops to a 7 Month Low

“A U.K. manufacturing index fell to a seven-month low in April amid declining consumer confidence and falling construction orders.

The gauge based on a survey by Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply fell to 54.6 from a revised 56.7 in March, according to a report published in London today. The median forecast of 19 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a decline to 57 from a previous March reading of 57.1. A measure above 50 indicates expansion.

The recovery in manufacturing may be losing momentum as the biggest fiscal squeeze since World War II takes hold, countering the benefit to exporters from a weaker pound. Policy makers will probably keep the key interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent this week to support the recovery, according to 42 of 43 economists in a Bloomberg News survey….”

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Infosys To Create Jobs in U.S. and Elsewhere

Infosys Technologies Ltd. (INFO), India’s second-largest software exporter, plans to step up hiring in the U.S., China and other overseas markets as it seeks to check rising employee turnover and boost profit.

“Our customers are global, so we want to create a global footprint,” S.D. Shibulal, chief operating officer, said in an interview on May 1. “We really need to get talent in thePhilippines, in China, in the Czech Republic and Brazil,” said the 56-year-old executive, who was last week named to take over as the company’s chief executive officer from Aug. 21.

Infosys plans to hire as many as 1,500 workers in the U.S……”

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Russian Manufacturing Falls Deeply and a Strong Ruble Hurts Exports

“Russian manufacturing growth slowed in April for the largest monthly drop since December 2008 after export orders declined and companies scaled back investment.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to a seasonally adjusted 52.1, the weakest level since November, from 55.6 in March,HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) said in a report today, citing datacompiled by Markit Economics, a financial information services company. The survey-based index indicates a contraction when below 50 and growth with a figure above 50.

“A decline in new export orders is worrisome as it usually points to the direction of change in overall manufacturing growth momentum in the coming months,” Alexander Morozov, HSBC’s chief economist for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States, said in the report.”

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China Stocks Trade Higher on Energy and Utility Plays

“China’s stocks climbed, driving the benchmark index to its biggest two-day increase in four weeks, on the prospect slowing manufacturing growth may allow the central bank to delay further increases in interest rates.

A gauge of consumer staples rose the most among 10 industry groups as inflation concerns eased after the Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 52.9 in April from 53.4 in March. Huaneng Power International Inc. (600011) paced gains for utility stocks for a second day on speculation the government may allow power producers to boost prices. A measure of small-company stocks advanced the most since February, led by technology companies….”

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Canadian Dollar Falls on Oil Downside Action

“The Canadian dollar fell as crude oil declined, erasing gains in the currency that came after Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party won a majority of seats in Parliament for the first time.

The loonie, as the currency is known, depreciated 0.2 percent to 95.26 cents against the U.S. dollar at 6:21 a.m. in Toronto, from 95.06 yesterday. It earlier advanced as much as 0.5 percent.”

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Austrlia Keeps Rates on Hold While a Strong Aussie dollar Shows Some Weakness

“The Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged today for a fifth straight meeting, signaling a record local dollar will help contain consumer prices until late this year.

“The rising exchange rate will be helping to hold down prices for some consumer products over the coming few quarters,” RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement today after holding the overnight cash rate target at 4.75 percent, as forecast by 21 of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. “Over the longer term, inflation can be expected to increase somewhat if economic conditions evolve broadly as expected.”

Aussie interest rate story

“The Australian dollar declined against most of its major counterparts after the central bank left interest rates on hold and traders bet policy makers will extend the pause until the third quarter.

The so-called Aussie fell for a fourth day versus the yen as Governor Glenn Stevens said the recent surge in the currency may “exert additional restraint” on industries related to trade. New Zealand’s dollar dropped after a government report showed private-sector wages grew at a slower pace than some economists forecast. Both currencies extended losses as commodities and Asian equities declined.”

Aussie dollar story

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The Nikkei and Shanghai Escapes Downside Action; the Rest Fall on Weak Commodity Prices

“Asian stocks declined, with a regional benchmark index falling the most in three weeks, as raw material producers fell andAustraliaNew Zealand Banking Group Ltd. and Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. posted earnings that missed analysts’ estimates.

BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s biggest mining company and Australia’s No. 1 oil and gas producer, and rival Rio TintoGroup fell at least 0.7 percent after crude and copper futures declined. ANZ Bank lost 2.1 percent. Hon Hai, the largest global contract maker of electronics, slipped 2.3 percent in Taipei. HTC Corp. (2498), the Taiwanese smartphone maker, tumbled 6.9 percent after HSBC Holdings Plc and Credit Suisse Group AG cut their ratings on the stock….”

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