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Monthly Archives: March 2011

26-33% of Japanese Refining Capacity Still Offline

As much as 1/3rd of Japanese refining capacity is still offline, lending to strength in gasoline, diesel and kerosene (heating oil) prices. Two of the biggest refineries, JX and Cosmo, should see sustained outages due to fires. Refineries at Tonen General and Kyokuto Petro should be able to restart, once power is restored.

At the present, current refining loss represents 4% of Asian capacity, 1.2% worldwide. Potential sustainable loss in refining capacity is projected to be around 9%.

Related: Japanese utilities have stated they may restart thermal power plants, which would further tighten supplies for refined crude.

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UBS: DRAM and NAND Prices to Rise Sharply

Due to temporary power outages at the Toshiba and Sandisk fabs in Japan, UBS is predicting a “sharp rise” in both DRAM and NAND prices. They feel MU stands to benefit, as their 2 Japanese fabs have been unaffected by the disaster in Northern Japan.

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UBS: Japanese Growth to Contract 2-3% in March-April

Although they are calling for a 2-3% contraction in the economy within the next month, they feel the second half of the year the economy will recover, as reconstruction takes hold. They are calling for just a 0.5% contraction in Japanese economic activity for 2011.

The cite comparisons between the Kobe earthquake (1995) to the current situation. However, they couch their optimistic assessment by warning that nuclear meltdown or extended electrical outages may hamper reconstruction efforts.

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CCJ Responds to Today’s Pinless Hand Grenade Action

In light of today’s 13% drubbing, due to the events in Japan, CCJ is updating investors via conference call.

As you could imagine, they feel today’s sell off is unwarranted and expect their guidance will land in within range. They are downplaying the events in Japan as not material to their business, stating that only 11 of Japan’s 54 reactors have been affected, totaling 3-4 million tons of uranium per year. Moreover, the company noted “political rhetoric” as possible distractions to the core thesis of the uranium story, which is massive demand deriving from China and India for years to come.

They reiterated their plans to double uranium output by 2018.

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Today’s Notable Movers

LZ +27% (acquired)
KSP +26% (acquired)
SYMX +18%
CIGX +17%
KUTV +16%
EWV +14.5% (inverse Japan)
LNG +14%
GPOR +13.5%
PWER +12.8%
NEU +11.8%
——————————-
URG -28%
URRE -25%
GVP -23%
CXZ -23%
DNN -23%
RCON -20%
UEC -20%
URZ -18%
TNDM -17%

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Commodities End the Day Lower

Here are today’s notable movers:

Uranium -17%
Cotton -4.2%
Sugar -3.9%
Lithium -3.1%
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Coal +2.4%
Tin +0.6%
Crude +0.4%

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CAGC Dismisses Auditor

More Chinese chicanery.

Co announced that the Board of Directors, based on the suggestion of the Audit Committee, has dismissed Ernst & Young Hua Ming as the independent auditor starting from March 14, 2011. The dismissal of Ernst & Young Hua Ming was made after thorough consideration by the Audit Committee, and the Board of Directors of the Company. The decision to dismiss the auditor was the result of Ernst & Young (China) Advisory Limited Beijing Branch Office entering into a SOX 404 service agreement including performing the test of the internal controls from 2008 to 2010. Recently, the public and the management team have raised doubts about this service agreement’s impact on Ernst & Young Hua Ming’s independence to act as the Company’s auditor. Co actively seeking a new auditor to finish the audit work for 2010 and file with the Securities and Exchange Commission with the least delay possible.

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Auditor and CFO Resign at CCME

Not good to say the least.

China’s largest  television advertising operator on inter-city and airport express buses, today announced that the Company’s registered independent accounting firm, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu (“DTT”) has formally resigned its engagement by the Company as of March 11, 2011. Following the receipt of the DTT resignation letter, on March 13, 2011, the Company received notice of the resignation of Jacky Lam from his position as Chief Financial Officer and director of the Company, effective immediately. As a result, CME will delay its fourth quarter earnings release and will not file its Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2010 by March 16, 2011, its original due date.

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Wunderlich Lowers Target for AM Superconductor – AMSC

Wunderlich lowers their AMSC tgt to $45 from $50 to account for changes in shipment patterns, product transition at its largest account, and for the impact of the acquisition of The Switch. The firm says they have taken the conservative side of the company’s comments but still believe the company could reach $1 billion of revenue before it says it will in fiscal 2014. Excluding cash of $5.00 per share, the stock trades at about 9x their CY12 non-GAAP EPS estimate, for a PEG of about 0.15x

Next earnings release: May 12 before market, unconfirmed. Thomson Reuters estimate: 0.37

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