I Can’t Tell Yet If This Is An Awful Move

1,177 views

I’ve decided more or less to cling to the oil stocks I had before last year’s implosion. BAS and HCLP remain in my portfolio, and into the decline I added VOC.

On the face of it, this is a bad move. The oil price decline was a classic collapse and these things have a way of being dead money for prolonged periods of time after the big drop off.

I can think of things like uranium prices or old school tech where the market tanked and people sat around, wasting their lives, waiting for a redemption that still hasn’t come. (On that note, I still own CCJ too, and am getting quite impatient with the Japanese).

But if there’s one market that breaks the mold, it has to be oil.

Oil has dumped spectacularly, twice in the past seven years, and it always returns right back to new highs. Not since before the ’90’s has oil been truly dead money.

The world is modernizing and despite all the hoopla about pretty battery packs you can adorn your house with, if humanity is to fully push into 21st century modernity, then it will need oil and lots of it.

This isn’t just about gasoline for cars. I mean it certainly is about gasoline, as a young society will need cheap options available to create a footing. But it’s also about raw material for industrials.

So I have decided, despite horrendous 30% losses last year, to more or less stay put. Everyone is so negative right now, but if recessions and corrections were so obvious and always about to happen, then they wouldn’t be so devastating or rare now would they?

I’m On Vacation

1,341 views

I didn’t realize I was on vacation; it sort of sneaked up on me.

May brought the turn of the weather in Michigan, and it is just so beautiful out that I cannot bring myself to sit in front of a computer. So I am out of work until next Friday and spent the entire day doing some gardening around the house.

Gardening is one of those activities that calms me down. It’s back burning work and tires you out. You’re under the sun with fresh air bending around you. Much superior to any time spent in a stuffy office, where the air circulation was modeled after a submarine.

I’ve been keeping a soft eye on the markets and generally speaking here is my position: foreign sovereign bonds have inverted themselves sharply from showing severe distress to a much more favorable normalcy. Paying countries to hold onto your money is terrible practice and a bad omen. The EURUSD has also been acting favorably, staging a rally off the lows. These things could be suggesting a bought of good data out of Europe finally, which is being priced in by markets (or not). For the moment, they have led a strong rebound in oil and have helped reverse the oil glut which has been building in the US.

The oil build we’ve been seeing has two components. The first component is what you might call global demand for oil, which is in question following weak data out of China, Europe, South America, North America…okay why am I writing this?…the whole planet Earth.

But the second component is much more localized. An uncompetitive dollar has actually acted to erect a trade wall around the US, which is in a sense trapping our oil products domestically. This has led to weak demand for US industrials and so our oil is pooling.

Global demand will still weigh down things, but if the second point is corrected, then global demand notwithstanding you could still see the US oil glut correct itself very quickly.

A spate of oil inventory draw downs and good news for US oil names is not then directly dependent on strong growth numbers around the globe. That would obviously help but adjustments to the dollar could serve much the same purpose.

That’s more or less why US oil names have rallied so hard recently.

For my part I am hunkered down and will be avoiding making transactions. But I like what I’m seeing in terms of the EURUSD and bonds.

Something to be cautious about however; you could also argue that low bond yields have forced pensioners and fixed income positions to take on additional risk by chasing stock prices for dividends to supplement yield. In that sense, stocks are rigged with a weak element that could quickly cascade. Positive bond yields are good, but too much yield is bad. If yields run too high, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it sparked a significant correction.

For the moment, the negative yield environment was a pretty recent phenomenon, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves. But we do need to see bonds set a floor at some point in the not too distant future or my optimism could turn dark in a hurry.

Cameco & Canada Enter Uranium Agreement With India

1,410 views

Here’s the scoop. This has been a rumor for a while now, but India and Canada finally signed an agreement to deliver nuclear fuel to India for their power generation. This comes as India’s economy is (finally?) making it out of the 19th century and power requirements are growing.

Nuclear energy is on the way back in, because it has to be. Environmentalist groups are basically anti-everything, but they have upset the balance in one key aspect – a large block of the population, about half, believe that traditional carbon emitting forms of fuel will end all life on Earth.

While I’m sure Greenpeace would love to block every form of power generation conceivable, their victories against coal are going to create momentum for nuclear power. You cannot block the main source of fuel and also block development of all the other sources of fuel. I mean, advancements in solar are impressive, but we’re still in the midst of a decades long process of incorporating that into the grid. And let’s be honest, Greenpeace hates constructing those too.

The sane folks are going to slowly latch onto the anti-coal message (and by and large already have), but they aren’t going to embrace the hardcore environmentalist message…ever. So that means we’re going to get more nuclear power as public policy shifts to fuel diversification.

Japan restarts are being held up by some asshole judge. That’s actually fine for the Japanese for the moment since import pricing have presumably fallen sharply with the recent oil selloff. But how long do you really think that will last? Eventually power generation costs jump and they have to restart.

India is running to nuclear because growing nuclear is going to provide air pollution free generation, which they need same as China. My guess is CCJ stock jumped yesterday on confirmation that, yes, this is actually happening and not just a pipe dream.

A Free Sample Of The Income Investment Report

983 views

As a token of goodwill and affection, I have decided to hand out a free page from the Income Investment Report.

Feel free to click on the link to preview the research behind my ALDW position. Unfortunately, not all of the functionality will be operational, but that is the penalty of free.

To see the report in all of its raw glory, sign up for the service.

Happy Easter Weekend

3,418 views

Thank you for a wonderful week and best wishes to you and your family from here in the 9th Floor.

As the summer weather sets in, as much as it pains me to do so, I simply must insist you spend a little less time here. Check in once a day, but no more. You are excused to spend all day loitering about my office in rain showers.

Life is short friends, so free yourself to enjoy it.

I made just one move this week, buying ALDW. I have also identified a position which I may short, either directly or synthetically. I’ll decide next week what I want to do.

The next issue of the IIR will be out this weekend. Make sure those of you who are paying members check in to collect your issue. You can reach me either on my wall or at Cain.Thaler@yahoo.com.

Want to become a paying member? Simply click on the link to the Income Investment Report and follow through to receive 100 analyses per year over quarterly installations. We detail which high yielding positions you should and should not be buying.

God I Hate This Market

2,439 views

We had the greatest market of our short dumb lives, and you just couldn’t be happy with that could you? We awoke, for months upon months, every morning to find riches and spoils filling our coffers and bread lining our pockets. My what a terrible situation…(extra sarcasm)

Now we have the market from hell, rising out of bed every morning bracing ourselves, not knowing if we’re to receive a few hundred points up or a beating down. But it doesn’t really matter either way, because these moves are only here to screw with our emotions. At the end of the month, they all average out to a big load of nothing. Sweat and tears and kids crying at their shadows.

I want back my bull market and I want it back now. I’m tired of being on pins and needles every single freaking day, worrying about the financial state of affairs in countries whose names and languages I can barely pronounce quite literally on the other side of the planet. Over half the US didn’t even know these places existed 5 years ago.

The currency markets and interconnectedness of trade is just ridiculous. It was bad enough going to war with these places on a global scale just a century ago. Now a smog laden city with a hand-washing problem in China gets a cough and I get rewarded with a sell-off in Chicago. Greece, inventors of public corruption, exercise their trade and I get a bond selloff in New York. Africa – AFRICA! – sucks and Europe teeters from that…I mean what else would Africa have?

Screw it, let’s erect some trade barriers again. Globalization inevitably boils down to having to trust that illiterate countries are meticulous with paperwork and mafia run countries don’t have theft problems. It’s almost uncanny, really.

I Can’t Tell Yet If This Is An Awful Move

1,177 views

I’ve decided more or less to cling to the oil stocks I had before last year’s implosion. BAS and HCLP remain in my portfolio, and into the decline I added VOC.

On the face of it, this is a bad move. The oil price decline was a classic collapse and these things have a way of being dead money for prolonged periods of time after the big drop off.

I can think of things like uranium prices or old school tech where the market tanked and people sat around, wasting their lives, waiting for a redemption that still hasn’t come. (On that note, I still own CCJ too, and am getting quite impatient with the Japanese).

But if there’s one market that breaks the mold, it has to be oil.

Oil has dumped spectacularly, twice in the past seven years, and it always returns right back to new highs. Not since before the ’90’s has oil been truly dead money.

The world is modernizing and despite all the hoopla about pretty battery packs you can adorn your house with, if humanity is to fully push into 21st century modernity, then it will need oil and lots of it.

This isn’t just about gasoline for cars. I mean it certainly is about gasoline, as a young society will need cheap options available to create a footing. But it’s also about raw material for industrials.

So I have decided, despite horrendous 30% losses last year, to more or less stay put. Everyone is so negative right now, but if recessions and corrections were so obvious and always about to happen, then they wouldn’t be so devastating or rare now would they?

I’m On Vacation

1,341 views

I didn’t realize I was on vacation; it sort of sneaked up on me.

May brought the turn of the weather in Michigan, and it is just so beautiful out that I cannot bring myself to sit in front of a computer. So I am out of work until next Friday and spent the entire day doing some gardening around the house.

Gardening is one of those activities that calms me down. It’s back burning work and tires you out. You’re under the sun with fresh air bending around you. Much superior to any time spent in a stuffy office, where the air circulation was modeled after a submarine.

I’ve been keeping a soft eye on the markets and generally speaking here is my position: foreign sovereign bonds have inverted themselves sharply from showing severe distress to a much more favorable normalcy. Paying countries to hold onto your money is terrible practice and a bad omen. The EURUSD has also been acting favorably, staging a rally off the lows. These things could be suggesting a bought of good data out of Europe finally, which is being priced in by markets (or not). For the moment, they have led a strong rebound in oil and have helped reverse the oil glut which has been building in the US.

The oil build we’ve been seeing has two components. The first component is what you might call global demand for oil, which is in question following weak data out of China, Europe, South America, North America…okay why am I writing this?…the whole planet Earth.

But the second component is much more localized. An uncompetitive dollar has actually acted to erect a trade wall around the US, which is in a sense trapping our oil products domestically. This has led to weak demand for US industrials and so our oil is pooling.

Global demand will still weigh down things, but if the second point is corrected, then global demand notwithstanding you could still see the US oil glut correct itself very quickly.

A spate of oil inventory draw downs and good news for US oil names is not then directly dependent on strong growth numbers around the globe. That would obviously help but adjustments to the dollar could serve much the same purpose.

That’s more or less why US oil names have rallied so hard recently.

For my part I am hunkered down and will be avoiding making transactions. But I like what I’m seeing in terms of the EURUSD and bonds.

Something to be cautious about however; you could also argue that low bond yields have forced pensioners and fixed income positions to take on additional risk by chasing stock prices for dividends to supplement yield. In that sense, stocks are rigged with a weak element that could quickly cascade. Positive bond yields are good, but too much yield is bad. If yields run too high, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it sparked a significant correction.

For the moment, the negative yield environment was a pretty recent phenomenon, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves. But we do need to see bonds set a floor at some point in the not too distant future or my optimism could turn dark in a hurry.

Cameco & Canada Enter Uranium Agreement With India

1,410 views

Here’s the scoop. This has been a rumor for a while now, but India and Canada finally signed an agreement to deliver nuclear fuel to India for their power generation. This comes as India’s economy is (finally?) making it out of the 19th century and power requirements are growing.

Nuclear energy is on the way back in, because it has to be. Environmentalist groups are basically anti-everything, but they have upset the balance in one key aspect – a large block of the population, about half, believe that traditional carbon emitting forms of fuel will end all life on Earth.

While I’m sure Greenpeace would love to block every form of power generation conceivable, their victories against coal are going to create momentum for nuclear power. You cannot block the main source of fuel and also block development of all the other sources of fuel. I mean, advancements in solar are impressive, but we’re still in the midst of a decades long process of incorporating that into the grid. And let’s be honest, Greenpeace hates constructing those too.

The sane folks are going to slowly latch onto the anti-coal message (and by and large already have), but they aren’t going to embrace the hardcore environmentalist message…ever. So that means we’re going to get more nuclear power as public policy shifts to fuel diversification.

Japan restarts are being held up by some asshole judge. That’s actually fine for the Japanese for the moment since import pricing have presumably fallen sharply with the recent oil selloff. But how long do you really think that will last? Eventually power generation costs jump and they have to restart.

India is running to nuclear because growing nuclear is going to provide air pollution free generation, which they need same as China. My guess is CCJ stock jumped yesterday on confirmation that, yes, this is actually happening and not just a pipe dream.

A Free Sample Of The Income Investment Report

983 views

As a token of goodwill and affection, I have decided to hand out a free page from the Income Investment Report.

Feel free to click on the link to preview the research behind my ALDW position. Unfortunately, not all of the functionality will be operational, but that is the penalty of free.

To see the report in all of its raw glory, sign up for the service.

Happy Easter Weekend

3,418 views

Thank you for a wonderful week and best wishes to you and your family from here in the 9th Floor.

As the summer weather sets in, as much as it pains me to do so, I simply must insist you spend a little less time here. Check in once a day, but no more. You are excused to spend all day loitering about my office in rain showers.

Life is short friends, so free yourself to enjoy it.

I made just one move this week, buying ALDW. I have also identified a position which I may short, either directly or synthetically. I’ll decide next week what I want to do.

The next issue of the IIR will be out this weekend. Make sure those of you who are paying members check in to collect your issue. You can reach me either on my wall or at Cain.Thaler@yahoo.com.

Want to become a paying member? Simply click on the link to the Income Investment Report and follow through to receive 100 analyses per year over quarterly installations. We detail which high yielding positions you should and should not be buying.

God I Hate This Market

2,439 views

We had the greatest market of our short dumb lives, and you just couldn’t be happy with that could you? We awoke, for months upon months, every morning to find riches and spoils filling our coffers and bread lining our pockets. My what a terrible situation…(extra sarcasm)

Now we have the market from hell, rising out of bed every morning bracing ourselves, not knowing if we’re to receive a few hundred points up or a beating down. But it doesn’t really matter either way, because these moves are only here to screw with our emotions. At the end of the month, they all average out to a big load of nothing. Sweat and tears and kids crying at their shadows.

I want back my bull market and I want it back now. I’m tired of being on pins and needles every single freaking day, worrying about the financial state of affairs in countries whose names and languages I can barely pronounce quite literally on the other side of the planet. Over half the US didn’t even know these places existed 5 years ago.

The currency markets and interconnectedness of trade is just ridiculous. It was bad enough going to war with these places on a global scale just a century ago. Now a smog laden city with a hand-washing problem in China gets a cough and I get rewarded with a sell-off in Chicago. Greece, inventors of public corruption, exercise their trade and I get a bond selloff in New York. Africa – AFRICA! – sucks and Europe teeters from that…I mean what else would Africa have?

Screw it, let’s erect some trade barriers again. Globalization inevitably boils down to having to trust that illiterate countries are meticulous with paperwork and mafia run countries don’t have theft problems. It’s almost uncanny, really.

Previous Posts by Mr. Cain Thaler