Tricky Tricky

1,024 views

I admit it; you had me pretty worried there.

What with oil prices plunging to lows not seen since last the entire planet was on the precipice of economic catastrophe. Yes, I was sweating…profusely.

But now what do we have here? In less than a business week, oil is back. My stocks are roaring back to dead life from a state of living death. It’s not much, but at least the putrefaction is under some amount of control.

For the moment, I am not putting any of my cash reserves to work. I want the dry powder in case we go Mad Max again.

But this is constructive. Greek 10 years are yielding 8% again. China will get it under control, much to the dismay of Zerohedgers. It’s not difficult to take away freedom from people who barely have any to start with.

iBankBonds

1,584 views

Effective immediately, the 9th Floor shall be converting itself into a bond trading desk.

Under martial penalty, every comment made herein must contain in the least sense an oblique mention of at least one of the following terms:

1) Coupons (shopping excluded)
2) Face value (sexist remarks made in good fun will be admissible)
3) Maturity (not in the passing of the prepubescent into adulthood sense of the word)
4) Yield (no crop talk)

Effective immediately, every other post will just be a chart of US Treasuries.

Welcome to hell, boys and girls.

The Beat Down Goes On

1,432 views

I have bad news for you, which is that if we’re going to judge this on the level, the market is pricing in recession.

I know it sounds bad, but that is just the way things are. This is no longer about the Eurozone; even Greek debt has come back in. The EURUSD is back above where it was. Greece has been bailed out again. The entirety of the Eurozone crisis fears that were occurring at the beginning of this meltdown have subsided…but the meltdown endures.

China took that baton and is running with it. And I am sure there’s a Brazil or Vietnam in the wings waiting for their turn next.

Energy pricing is – collapsing is too weak of a word – I don’t know how to call it. Oil is gone. Coal is gone. Nuclear is gone. Solar is gone. If you’re looking for a leading indicator, that may not be an optimistic one.

I don’t know. For the moment I’ve got enough cash to be composed about this, but these are tremors we haven’t felt since 2011 at least.

What A Weird Year

1,031 views

The wind rushes through the curtains, which cloak my 9th Floor office from direct light outside. The summer air is fresh and warm.

So here’s my review of the week; it was strange and fit perfectly in line with the year we’ve been having.

A Bloomberg article speculating on the looming bankruptcy of Saudi Arabia touched off a fierce rally in oil names, while oil itself continued to have the icy hand of death caressing its forehead.

I’m not exactly sure why you would speculate that a country which has no national debt to speak of would be at risk of going bankrupt any time soon. Certainly, the perseverance of US oil drilling is a thorn in the side of the Saudi’s. But those of us here in the 9th Floor had already worked out that might be the case.

The Saudi target was either their other OPEC members or else they just wanted to hang up future well development. In either case, that mission seems accomplished, and what we are seeing – finally – in media is some resistance to the idea that oil prices should go any lower.

Sure we’re all manic depressive now, but these are good signs. Oil will be back to $80 just as soon as we figure out where to put it.

I know I’ve had been in a black mood all year; but not all is going wrong with Cain Hammond Thaler, have no fear of that.

OMAB continues to experience traffic growth of about 16% per year. It’s come down a little from earlier but that is still strong and the stock should continue to outperform.

TIS was a newer position which took a bit of a 30% spill when I bought it – oops – but I liked to the name so I held on. We’re back above $26, reaching for break even and the company just announced sales increased by 45%. Income per share is up 37.5% year over year and unless I’m misreading something, that is coming straight from product sales – no financial gimmicks to speak of. I need to dig in to the numbers a little deeper to be absolutely sure of that, but for the moment I’m pretty pleased.

TIS is one of those names no one has heard of with a really boring business that is going to make me a lot of money. They make toiletry paper products, something South America is going to be in high demand for as their banana republics keep folding.

And ALDW is playing the part of the faithful hedge, now up 32% since I bought it elevated by lower oil prices and stable gas prices at the pumps.

‘Nice Reprieves’ Won’t Stop The Suffering

1,208 views

Here we are on a Tuesday, getting a day of comfortable green price action. It’s remnant of a time when every day stocks melted higher and bears were committing suicide by the hour.

But buddy, this isn’t going to cut it.

While I love finally seeing a little bit of upside I know in my heart that this is just the waft of fresh air that gets you to patiently wait in the smoke filled room while the fire starts to work through the next layer of the walls.

My recent patience with this day after day of unfolding tragedy may be the most unsubstantiated move I have made in more than seven years. I shouldn’t be this comfortable, but here I am anyway, watching the villain saw me to pieces whilst I sip from a small cup of tea.

Only work outside of the task of managing my wealth keeps me from fixating exclusively on this nightmare and probably suffering a massive nervous breakdown / stroke combo.

I want you to hear this, right now: the world isn’t changing that much.

Sure it’s an exciting time to be alive, but you think oil won’t be valuable in thirty years time? You need to open an organic chemistry book or three and get with the program. I have watched this happen enough times to know that the same scumbags who are preaching environmentalism and a return to the times of Friar Tuck from one hand are busy buying anything oil and coal related with the other. Just because you can’t see where or how doesn’t mean that they aren’t.

Venezuela is melting down completely now. There are reports on twitter of inflation rates that crest an annualized 800% – real inflation is more than 120% per year right now. That country is going down, and when it does I do believe the oil market might become a lot less oversupplied.

Or maybe it will be somebody else? Who knows…but so far the US domestics have been holding on like champs. I’m will not get shook out by the freaking Saudi’s, of all people.

I remain convinced that the US domestic boom in oil production remains the best place to hold money for 10 years or longer. Just so long as your positions don’t go out, watching them go down will just make the story better for the kids.

Are They Trying To Break Me Down?

1,704 views

As if we weren’t already on a knife’s edge, watching Greece meltdown the euro and China burn to cinders, now we are treated to major financial outages here at home.

Is someone trying to ignite a panic? Because they’ll pull it off.

For the moment I guess those of us who have heavy supplies of guns and ammo rest easiest at night. You unarmed peace and love types have fun, knowing you’re the first targets of Fly’s junta, should civilization fail.

I for one welcome our new feudal system.

Tricky Tricky

1,024 views

I admit it; you had me pretty worried there.

What with oil prices plunging to lows not seen since last the entire planet was on the precipice of economic catastrophe. Yes, I was sweating…profusely.

But now what do we have here? In less than a business week, oil is back. My stocks are roaring back to dead life from a state of living death. It’s not much, but at least the putrefaction is under some amount of control.

For the moment, I am not putting any of my cash reserves to work. I want the dry powder in case we go Mad Max again.

But this is constructive. Greek 10 years are yielding 8% again. China will get it under control, much to the dismay of Zerohedgers. It’s not difficult to take away freedom from people who barely have any to start with.

iBankBonds

1,584 views

Effective immediately, the 9th Floor shall be converting itself into a bond trading desk.

Under martial penalty, every comment made herein must contain in the least sense an oblique mention of at least one of the following terms:

1) Coupons (shopping excluded)
2) Face value (sexist remarks made in good fun will be admissible)
3) Maturity (not in the passing of the prepubescent into adulthood sense of the word)
4) Yield (no crop talk)

Effective immediately, every other post will just be a chart of US Treasuries.

Welcome to hell, boys and girls.

The Beat Down Goes On

1,432 views

I have bad news for you, which is that if we’re going to judge this on the level, the market is pricing in recession.

I know it sounds bad, but that is just the way things are. This is no longer about the Eurozone; even Greek debt has come back in. The EURUSD is back above where it was. Greece has been bailed out again. The entirety of the Eurozone crisis fears that were occurring at the beginning of this meltdown have subsided…but the meltdown endures.

China took that baton and is running with it. And I am sure there’s a Brazil or Vietnam in the wings waiting for their turn next.

Energy pricing is – collapsing is too weak of a word – I don’t know how to call it. Oil is gone. Coal is gone. Nuclear is gone. Solar is gone. If you’re looking for a leading indicator, that may not be an optimistic one.

I don’t know. For the moment I’ve got enough cash to be composed about this, but these are tremors we haven’t felt since 2011 at least.

What A Weird Year

1,031 views

The wind rushes through the curtains, which cloak my 9th Floor office from direct light outside. The summer air is fresh and warm.

So here’s my review of the week; it was strange and fit perfectly in line with the year we’ve been having.

A Bloomberg article speculating on the looming bankruptcy of Saudi Arabia touched off a fierce rally in oil names, while oil itself continued to have the icy hand of death caressing its forehead.

I’m not exactly sure why you would speculate that a country which has no national debt to speak of would be at risk of going bankrupt any time soon. Certainly, the perseverance of US oil drilling is a thorn in the side of the Saudi’s. But those of us here in the 9th Floor had already worked out that might be the case.

The Saudi target was either their other OPEC members or else they just wanted to hang up future well development. In either case, that mission seems accomplished, and what we are seeing – finally – in media is some resistance to the idea that oil prices should go any lower.

Sure we’re all manic depressive now, but these are good signs. Oil will be back to $80 just as soon as we figure out where to put it.

I know I’ve had been in a black mood all year; but not all is going wrong with Cain Hammond Thaler, have no fear of that.

OMAB continues to experience traffic growth of about 16% per year. It’s come down a little from earlier but that is still strong and the stock should continue to outperform.

TIS was a newer position which took a bit of a 30% spill when I bought it – oops – but I liked to the name so I held on. We’re back above $26, reaching for break even and the company just announced sales increased by 45%. Income per share is up 37.5% year over year and unless I’m misreading something, that is coming straight from product sales – no financial gimmicks to speak of. I need to dig in to the numbers a little deeper to be absolutely sure of that, but for the moment I’m pretty pleased.

TIS is one of those names no one has heard of with a really boring business that is going to make me a lot of money. They make toiletry paper products, something South America is going to be in high demand for as their banana republics keep folding.

And ALDW is playing the part of the faithful hedge, now up 32% since I bought it elevated by lower oil prices and stable gas prices at the pumps.

‘Nice Reprieves’ Won’t Stop The Suffering

1,208 views

Here we are on a Tuesday, getting a day of comfortable green price action. It’s remnant of a time when every day stocks melted higher and bears were committing suicide by the hour.

But buddy, this isn’t going to cut it.

While I love finally seeing a little bit of upside I know in my heart that this is just the waft of fresh air that gets you to patiently wait in the smoke filled room while the fire starts to work through the next layer of the walls.

My recent patience with this day after day of unfolding tragedy may be the most unsubstantiated move I have made in more than seven years. I shouldn’t be this comfortable, but here I am anyway, watching the villain saw me to pieces whilst I sip from a small cup of tea.

Only work outside of the task of managing my wealth keeps me from fixating exclusively on this nightmare and probably suffering a massive nervous breakdown / stroke combo.

I want you to hear this, right now: the world isn’t changing that much.

Sure it’s an exciting time to be alive, but you think oil won’t be valuable in thirty years time? You need to open an organic chemistry book or three and get with the program. I have watched this happen enough times to know that the same scumbags who are preaching environmentalism and a return to the times of Friar Tuck from one hand are busy buying anything oil and coal related with the other. Just because you can’t see where or how doesn’t mean that they aren’t.

Venezuela is melting down completely now. There are reports on twitter of inflation rates that crest an annualized 800% – real inflation is more than 120% per year right now. That country is going down, and when it does I do believe the oil market might become a lot less oversupplied.

Or maybe it will be somebody else? Who knows…but so far the US domestics have been holding on like champs. I’m will not get shook out by the freaking Saudi’s, of all people.

I remain convinced that the US domestic boom in oil production remains the best place to hold money for 10 years or longer. Just so long as your positions don’t go out, watching them go down will just make the story better for the kids.

Are They Trying To Break Me Down?

1,704 views

As if we weren’t already on a knife’s edge, watching Greece meltdown the euro and China burn to cinders, now we are treated to major financial outages here at home.

Is someone trying to ignite a panic? Because they’ll pull it off.

For the moment I guess those of us who have heavy supplies of guns and ammo rest easiest at night. You unarmed peace and love types have fun, knowing you’re the first targets of Fly’s junta, should civilization fail.

I for one welcome our new feudal system.

Previous Posts by Mr. Cain Thaler