A Special Message From Uncle Warren

2,912 views

“Good morning lads, and my what a splendid day it is.

It reminds me of when I was just a boy, taking pennies for good honest work painting fence posts. I was a regular Tom Sawyer.

Would you like to hear a humorous anecdote about personal responsibility?”

(Waves his hand to clean up crew who start making off with burning wreckage of the latest oil rail car fiasco)

“Why I sure love quality management. No good management can ever be held down by any problem. I love buying companies with good management and…

…Woah! Don’t look behind you. Eyes on me, kid.

…now I remember when my textile factory failed. I was quite upset. But did I just lie down? No, no I got back up and turned Omaha into a capital for insurance. Not that I would ever own derivatives, no that would be reckless.

Oh…I uh…I see you looked behind you and saw the smoldering ruin of my monopoly. Well, the thing about that is…

…would you care for a peppermint? I keep them in my breast pocket, and hand them out to children. I remember my grandfather. He was such a kind man. Used to have the most whimsical silver hair and kindest smile.

I was just at the White House the other day, not making special deals for preferential treatment or anything. Have you ever met the President of the United States before? You should write him a letter and tell him all about what you like about jam.”

(Clean up crew flashes an “OK” sign, then leaves)

“Well my good friends, I do believe I must be going now. I have lots of Cherry Coke to drink. Har har har. Before I’m off, let me tell you how important it is to buy good companies at a cheap price. Make sure you pay your taxes and play by all the rules”

THE END

The Oil Rally Comes Undone

566 views

This pretty well sums up why I haven’t done anything over the last month. I don’t trust anything or anyone right now, other than a comfy 60% cash position and my own nerves.

And if I have to sit on that cash position for a year, doing nothing much at all, then watch me.

You should generally presume that the future will behave averagely from the present. But there are times when you are confronted with the extraordinary; times like the 3rd most significant decline in a key commodity on record. And when those times happen, you should chuck the ordinary and assume you are living in extraordinary times.

We saw the tech sector get run through last spring. Then the oil space. What comes next? Wherever we are, it’s best to believe that it will be anything but average.

After all, nothing else has been.

The Family Life Is Worth It

467 views

Greetings from the 9th floor and allow me to talk non-finance for a while. We’ve been chewing on this tape long enough to have earned a break.

Months ago I swore to Madame Thaler that I would be a more involved family sort the last few months. It’s not that I was ever an uninvolved man; only that I promised to apply extra efforts to attending events and seeing loved ones who we had only occasioned with in the past few years. We let the children of our extended family come stay over night and entertained them with trips to water parks and zoos. We doted on the youngsters. We entertained and visited often.

The effort reaps dividends and I recommend you try it if you find yourself isolated from your clan. Our kin are one of those special associations that almost always enhance our quality of life. Sure spending time takes away from business affairs, but why are you working so hard anyway? A common answer is, “for others”.

But the others would rather you be a part of their lives. The great man or woman is one who can apply himself or herself in both fields of life (often at the expense of their own personal time – work and family are exhausting).

Naturally some of you are estranged from your families. I would not tell you to reconnect; plenty of those estrangements are for good reason. But find yourself a family all the same and exercise yourself to include them in your thoughts and life.

It’s difficult to organize these events and often it falls on you (as the enterprising up-and-coming) to make it all come together. But when you finally are surrounded by people you haven’t seen in years, the cost seems so negligible. It is a very rewarding experience.

These Late Day Recoveries Aren’t Helpful

589 views

Enough with the bounces, always bringing us back just enough to get beaten to death tomorrow. This process is faulty and needs to be jettisoned, either through rapacious upside action, or else total breakdown. Death by a thousand paper cuts is always far worse to the system over time. It breeds mistrust; nothing like a good and quick beating to clean a mans mind and the slate.

The market is being controlled by the weak and fretful. Cowards are not permitted to lead for long; buying the day and selling the close – as a strategy – must be swiftly punished through conviction moves either up or down, less the whole crowd be given over to that sort of silliness.

I would gladly accept a little more panic weakness, if the tradeoff is the bankruptcy of the intraday traders. Just to get them off the board.

DOW Off 300

620 views

Look we can sit here and try and play “Guess What People Are Thinking”, but I sort of feel that the game is a waste of time at this point. The room for psychoanalysis is well past. We’re selling off hard again and that’s all there is to it.

I had hoped – hoped – that we were near some sort of bottom. But obviously nobody took the time to guess the true impact of watching the EURUSD collapse by 20%. So now we’re going to get more face punching. It’s really that simple.

The strong dollar is going to be a huge boon for savers. Unfortunately, there aren’t any of those in America.

Should I Write About My Cash?

453 views

Maybe I’ll start writing weekly columns about the up and coming developments in the cash sector. I could, for instance, average together all the serial numbers on my cash, and then run countless back testing to see if that number modulo 7 correlates to the S&P 500 (pitch destroyer: it doesn’t, but I’ll have a super catchy title anyway).

Perhaps I will start a new publication to go along with my columns, and call it Cash Weekly. We could discuss the new emerging colors of cash or just pay cartoonists to draw amusing characters over the top of our legal tender’s portraits.

I could always do an in depth review of up and coming US destroyers, and how they pertain to stuffing our cash down the throats of the third world? Or why I’d rather own dollars than euros or rubles? I could dedicate an entire column to other uses for cash, such as mattress stuffing or alternative clothing fabric.

Sorry for the lull; you see, I’m sitting on quite a lot of the stuff at the moment and it is really boring, even though it’s also the right move here.

A Special Message From Uncle Warren

2,912 views

“Good morning lads, and my what a splendid day it is.

It reminds me of when I was just a boy, taking pennies for good honest work painting fence posts. I was a regular Tom Sawyer.

Would you like to hear a humorous anecdote about personal responsibility?”

(Waves his hand to clean up crew who start making off with burning wreckage of the latest oil rail car fiasco)

“Why I sure love quality management. No good management can ever be held down by any problem. I love buying companies with good management and…

…Woah! Don’t look behind you. Eyes on me, kid.

…now I remember when my textile factory failed. I was quite upset. But did I just lie down? No, no I got back up and turned Omaha into a capital for insurance. Not that I would ever own derivatives, no that would be reckless.

Oh…I uh…I see you looked behind you and saw the smoldering ruin of my monopoly. Well, the thing about that is…

…would you care for a peppermint? I keep them in my breast pocket, and hand them out to children. I remember my grandfather. He was such a kind man. Used to have the most whimsical silver hair and kindest smile.

I was just at the White House the other day, not making special deals for preferential treatment or anything. Have you ever met the President of the United States before? You should write him a letter and tell him all about what you like about jam.”

(Clean up crew flashes an “OK” sign, then leaves)

“Well my good friends, I do believe I must be going now. I have lots of Cherry Coke to drink. Har har har. Before I’m off, let me tell you how important it is to buy good companies at a cheap price. Make sure you pay your taxes and play by all the rules”

THE END

The Oil Rally Comes Undone

566 views

This pretty well sums up why I haven’t done anything over the last month. I don’t trust anything or anyone right now, other than a comfy 60% cash position and my own nerves.

And if I have to sit on that cash position for a year, doing nothing much at all, then watch me.

You should generally presume that the future will behave averagely from the present. But there are times when you are confronted with the extraordinary; times like the 3rd most significant decline in a key commodity on record. And when those times happen, you should chuck the ordinary and assume you are living in extraordinary times.

We saw the tech sector get run through last spring. Then the oil space. What comes next? Wherever we are, it’s best to believe that it will be anything but average.

After all, nothing else has been.

The Family Life Is Worth It

467 views

Greetings from the 9th floor and allow me to talk non-finance for a while. We’ve been chewing on this tape long enough to have earned a break.

Months ago I swore to Madame Thaler that I would be a more involved family sort the last few months. It’s not that I was ever an uninvolved man; only that I promised to apply extra efforts to attending events and seeing loved ones who we had only occasioned with in the past few years. We let the children of our extended family come stay over night and entertained them with trips to water parks and zoos. We doted on the youngsters. We entertained and visited often.

The effort reaps dividends and I recommend you try it if you find yourself isolated from your clan. Our kin are one of those special associations that almost always enhance our quality of life. Sure spending time takes away from business affairs, but why are you working so hard anyway? A common answer is, “for others”.

But the others would rather you be a part of their lives. The great man or woman is one who can apply himself or herself in both fields of life (often at the expense of their own personal time – work and family are exhausting).

Naturally some of you are estranged from your families. I would not tell you to reconnect; plenty of those estrangements are for good reason. But find yourself a family all the same and exercise yourself to include them in your thoughts and life.

It’s difficult to organize these events and often it falls on you (as the enterprising up-and-coming) to make it all come together. But when you finally are surrounded by people you haven’t seen in years, the cost seems so negligible. It is a very rewarding experience.

These Late Day Recoveries Aren’t Helpful

589 views

Enough with the bounces, always bringing us back just enough to get beaten to death tomorrow. This process is faulty and needs to be jettisoned, either through rapacious upside action, or else total breakdown. Death by a thousand paper cuts is always far worse to the system over time. It breeds mistrust; nothing like a good and quick beating to clean a mans mind and the slate.

The market is being controlled by the weak and fretful. Cowards are not permitted to lead for long; buying the day and selling the close – as a strategy – must be swiftly punished through conviction moves either up or down, less the whole crowd be given over to that sort of silliness.

I would gladly accept a little more panic weakness, if the tradeoff is the bankruptcy of the intraday traders. Just to get them off the board.

DOW Off 300

620 views

Look we can sit here and try and play “Guess What People Are Thinking”, but I sort of feel that the game is a waste of time at this point. The room for psychoanalysis is well past. We’re selling off hard again and that’s all there is to it.

I had hoped – hoped – that we were near some sort of bottom. But obviously nobody took the time to guess the true impact of watching the EURUSD collapse by 20%. So now we’re going to get more face punching. It’s really that simple.

The strong dollar is going to be a huge boon for savers. Unfortunately, there aren’t any of those in America.

Should I Write About My Cash?

453 views

Maybe I’ll start writing weekly columns about the up and coming developments in the cash sector. I could, for instance, average together all the serial numbers on my cash, and then run countless back testing to see if that number modulo 7 correlates to the S&P 500 (pitch destroyer: it doesn’t, but I’ll have a super catchy title anyway).

Perhaps I will start a new publication to go along with my columns, and call it Cash Weekly. We could discuss the new emerging colors of cash or just pay cartoonists to draw amusing characters over the top of our legal tender’s portraits.

I could always do an in depth review of up and coming US destroyers, and how they pertain to stuffing our cash down the throats of the third world? Or why I’d rather own dollars than euros or rubles? I could dedicate an entire column to other uses for cash, such as mattress stuffing or alternative clothing fabric.

Sorry for the lull; you see, I’m sitting on quite a lot of the stuff at the moment and it is really boring, even though it’s also the right move here.

Previous Posts by Mr. Cain Thaler