Up For The Week, Somehow

198 views

The market may be down, but somehow I ended up a small sum. My account is up 3% today, erasing the nasty tumble I had play out over the past 48 hours.

I’m constructive in oil and energy names, but that applies more to energy services and complement plays than it does to pure oil bets. I’m also very adverse to deep sea drilling, because it’s expensive and easily priced out of competitiveness.

I’m getting excited about uranium for the first time in years. I’ve been enthusiastic up until now, but there was something missing. The fuel run is exactly what the doctor ordered.

Enjoy your weekend, my good man or lady. The 9th floor is closed for business, until Monday.

Standing Strong Yet

191 views

This is one of those moments in life; where every atom in the wind cuts against you and blows with all its terrible might just for the sake of getting you to give up. There is no real logic to why it does this, other than that if you give in, it will be your undoing.

Today’s big move lower in oil (again) is gripping the market with fear and my positions are selling off hard. I am down another 3.5% today taking quite a beating. I have a loss for the year. I feel disheartened.

It’s in this moment that I know I have to hold out, if just for a little while longer yet.

The point of this selloff is to break my spirit. I don’t trust financial markets at all. They are filled to the brim with treacherous men acting without morals. I will not give in to this, whatever it is. If it is simply fear, I will rise above it. If it is something more sinister – an intentional move to steal that which is mine – I shall break the culprits in half.

I will not just throw away such a treasure as the US fracking boom. It holds our future.

The days of OPEC are coming to an end. The days of dealing with black handed foreign regimes will go with them. And the US shall be awash in domestic energy for many decades because of it.

Like Armour himself before me, if I must go bankrupt on this dream then so be it. Send the ships.

Straight Like Scotch – 2014 Elections

304 views

No I didn’t forget about the elections.

I was lurking in the shadows, you see. Watching Democrats discover that you actually can’t buy elections. There was only minimal reason to speak. Better to let the rocks fall on their own. Besides, what more do I have to say, that I didn’t already say?

I have to confess; even I didn’t imagine just to what extent the last two years would go.

I mean, the president completely fumbling the signature legislation of his first term through gross negligence? Who could have predicted that? That’s epic stupid. STOOPID.

Or Obama casually wading into the shark infested waters that is the gun debate without any game plan? He was a lame duck half a month before his second term even started.

Or the almost-impossible-to-count scandals blowing up chunks of his administration? Ultimately, much of my choice to vote for Obama rested on confidence that he had put exactly the wrong people in charge of the wrong tasks, and that any new executive would simply be too late to catch it and clean it up. Except like, a factor of ten times bigger than I ever guessed.

And along the entire pathway, somehow, Barrack Obama – a man once labeled as the smartest, savviest political force in a century – managed to look terrible at every junction.

I’m not even getting into the first term. Or the continued ramifications of PPACA, which I suspect may have the distinction of being the first sweeping government entitlement to be repealed in US history, at the demands of the citizenry no less.

That has been the true cornerstone of Obama’s presidency. The trampling of old political rules of thumbs.

Back in 2012, I made an analogy that voting for Obama was equivalent to chaining the bad captain’s ankle to the wheel of the ship, so that he couldn’t run from it. Who possibly could have known that Barrack Obama was the kind of man who would respond by chaining his entire party to himself?

President Barrack Obama now has the title of being the worst president of the modern era. But what’s more, his own party is going to carve the tomb stone and write the eulogy, while still losing anyway. Strange times, indeed.

The path ahead is complicated, and I question whether the GOP is up to the challenge. With men like Cruz in their ranks, …sometimes a dumb ally is worth two enemies. On the flip side, Democrats suffered this loss in no small part thanks to Obama – who is the only major piece on the board not changing.

To those of you who have been quietly calling for Obama’s remaining two years to be reminiscent of Bill Clinton’s, you could save your breath. Barrack Obama is not Bill Clinton. He is Barrack Obama. I doubt he has the ability, even if he had the desire.

I suppose we shall see. But for the moment, sitting here in my 9th floor office gazing from the darkness; a smile crosses my lips. And the curtain closes.

Staring Down The Meat Grinder

253 views

Yes I am down a demeaning 3%+ today, thank you for asking.

(Whispers sadistically)…WHO SAID THAT!?

(Eyes nervously twitching in all directions)

(Nervously laughs)…why, what else would I be on Tim Cook day?

What else would I be…?

_______________________________________________

Alright, upon externalizing my inner crazy, I feel better now. Today’s drawdown in everything I own, more or less, is most likely the mark of death touching the “SUPER SMART MONEY FUND MANAGERS”, liquidating them.

This action will most likely persist for several weeks more, with small and sharp bounces being met by fervent selling, as the “MOST INTELLIGENT PEOPLE YOU’VE EVER MET” continue to scale out of their late entry, money losing trades.

The 2014 blast off in names like HCLP was being driven in large sum by over allocation on the part of these hedge fund savants, blessings to humanity that they are. That is increasingly clear now. They conveniently showed up way after good entry could be had, provided those of us who actually have original ideas excellent opportunity to step out the door, hyped the crap out of these positions to people with 5 minute attention spans via cable networking, and are now immolating in a pyre.

Accordingly, the “ULTIMATE EXAMPLES OF HUMAN BEINGS ON EARTH” turned lit pieces of coal must be allowed to burn down before we can have some resolution to this little debacle. It is a most excellent buying opportunity to grab some great oil and gas companies…provided you still have both your arms.

As an extra thought, there is a lesson in all of this.

The hedge fund model is dead for the foreseeable future. Which is idiotic. The hedge fund model, on the face of it, makes complete sense. Hedge funds are supposed to be smaller, more versatile structures filled to the brim with excess money that comes from calmer and more financially secure sources. Fundamentally, the hedge fund world should persistently have an edge, free from jittery clients and hamstrung investment options.

In the beginning, that’s the way things were. Cue the copycats and mimics.

I have a long held theory, a secret point of view draped in conjecture: that the plights of the world can in many cases be seen best through the lens of the disappointing children of greater men and women. Mediocrity born behind the wheel; usually reserved for those who’ve demonstrated aptitude for actually handling it.

Everybody loves their children. Everybody wants to help their children succeed. And the result is the bastard sons of senators and business tycoons getting their start up funds seeded with doomed money; setting out into the world to be driven off a cliff or into a brick wall.

This is, in my imagination, the body of invisible and unseen forces currently bleeding all over my positions.

So the hedge fund mythos is dead. Heracles’ killed the Nemean Lion, but he couldn’t survive 6,000 posers dressing up like him and smashing his reputation to shit. Nice work, everyone. The whole concept will have to lie dead for a while, until this period gets smoothed over.

In the meantime, if you’re looking to trust a lucky sperm cell, have a close friend work off onto a four leaf clover – you’ll lose less money walking behind that.

IT HAS COME TO PASS

374 views

But o’ the joy that broke this afternoon! What delicious delight, scattering my sour mood to the sound of obsessed cackling laughter. One of my designs now comes to pass.

For years I have sat on CCJ, waiting patiently, unmoving. Made of stone, I was.

Now, no more waiting, it would seem. The gargoyle springs to life; the golem lives.

Japan has begun restarting the nuclear fleet at long last!

See the results for your own eyes.

“OH NO’S” More Dreaded Oil Slowdown

223 views

Courtesy of Platts:

Growth Rate Hit 15-Month High; China Imported Gasoline for 1st Time since Late-2011

SINGAPORE, Oct. 27, 2014 /PRNewswire/ — China’s apparent oil demand* in September climbed to the second-highest level since 2005, with a growth rate that was the sharpest in 15 months, according to a just-released Platts analysis of Chinese government data. Platts began tracking apparent oil demand in 2005.

Apparent oil demand in September was 42.34 million metric tons (mt), or an average 10.35 million barrels per day (b/d) – up 7.4% from the same month a year ago.

Analysts said previous stimulus measures by the local government, including loosening of credit controls; the lifting of the annual summer ban on fishing in China’s waters; and autumn harvest activity in the farming sector buoyed domestic oil demand.

On a month-over-month basis, China’s apparent oil demand in September rose 6.2% from August. During the first nine months of the year, total apparent oil demand was 9.95 million b/d, an increase of 1.8% from the same period last year.

Crude throughput by refineries in September jumped 9.1% year over year to 42.02 million mt, or an average 10.27 million b/d, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This was also the second-highest level on record and marks the third time this year that China’s refinery throughput exceeded 10 million b/d.

“The higher refinery run rates in September followed the end of a heavy schedule of refinery maintenance in summer,” said Song Yen Ling, Platts senior writer for China. “Major refineries, including PetroChina’s Lanzhou refinery and Sinopec’s Shijiazhuang refinery, returned to full operations after being closed in part or full for maintenance or upgrades.”

One interesting note – Platts says that China’s oil product imports are falling, down 19%. China is making even more in house than importing. Gasoline demand is also up 18%.

Up For The Week, Somehow

198 views

The market may be down, but somehow I ended up a small sum. My account is up 3% today, erasing the nasty tumble I had play out over the past 48 hours.

I’m constructive in oil and energy names, but that applies more to energy services and complement plays than it does to pure oil bets. I’m also very adverse to deep sea drilling, because it’s expensive and easily priced out of competitiveness.

I’m getting excited about uranium for the first time in years. I’ve been enthusiastic up until now, but there was something missing. The fuel run is exactly what the doctor ordered.

Enjoy your weekend, my good man or lady. The 9th floor is closed for business, until Monday.

Standing Strong Yet

191 views

This is one of those moments in life; where every atom in the wind cuts against you and blows with all its terrible might just for the sake of getting you to give up. There is no real logic to why it does this, other than that if you give in, it will be your undoing.

Today’s big move lower in oil (again) is gripping the market with fear and my positions are selling off hard. I am down another 3.5% today taking quite a beating. I have a loss for the year. I feel disheartened.

It’s in this moment that I know I have to hold out, if just for a little while longer yet.

The point of this selloff is to break my spirit. I don’t trust financial markets at all. They are filled to the brim with treacherous men acting without morals. I will not give in to this, whatever it is. If it is simply fear, I will rise above it. If it is something more sinister – an intentional move to steal that which is mine – I shall break the culprits in half.

I will not just throw away such a treasure as the US fracking boom. It holds our future.

The days of OPEC are coming to an end. The days of dealing with black handed foreign regimes will go with them. And the US shall be awash in domestic energy for many decades because of it.

Like Armour himself before me, if I must go bankrupt on this dream then so be it. Send the ships.

Straight Like Scotch – 2014 Elections

304 views

No I didn’t forget about the elections.

I was lurking in the shadows, you see. Watching Democrats discover that you actually can’t buy elections. There was only minimal reason to speak. Better to let the rocks fall on their own. Besides, what more do I have to say, that I didn’t already say?

I have to confess; even I didn’t imagine just to what extent the last two years would go.

I mean, the president completely fumbling the signature legislation of his first term through gross negligence? Who could have predicted that? That’s epic stupid. STOOPID.

Or Obama casually wading into the shark infested waters that is the gun debate without any game plan? He was a lame duck half a month before his second term even started.

Or the almost-impossible-to-count scandals blowing up chunks of his administration? Ultimately, much of my choice to vote for Obama rested on confidence that he had put exactly the wrong people in charge of the wrong tasks, and that any new executive would simply be too late to catch it and clean it up. Except like, a factor of ten times bigger than I ever guessed.

And along the entire pathway, somehow, Barrack Obama – a man once labeled as the smartest, savviest political force in a century – managed to look terrible at every junction.

I’m not even getting into the first term. Or the continued ramifications of PPACA, which I suspect may have the distinction of being the first sweeping government entitlement to be repealed in US history, at the demands of the citizenry no less.

That has been the true cornerstone of Obama’s presidency. The trampling of old political rules of thumbs.

Back in 2012, I made an analogy that voting for Obama was equivalent to chaining the bad captain’s ankle to the wheel of the ship, so that he couldn’t run from it. Who possibly could have known that Barrack Obama was the kind of man who would respond by chaining his entire party to himself?

President Barrack Obama now has the title of being the worst president of the modern era. But what’s more, his own party is going to carve the tomb stone and write the eulogy, while still losing anyway. Strange times, indeed.

The path ahead is complicated, and I question whether the GOP is up to the challenge. With men like Cruz in their ranks, …sometimes a dumb ally is worth two enemies. On the flip side, Democrats suffered this loss in no small part thanks to Obama – who is the only major piece on the board not changing.

To those of you who have been quietly calling for Obama’s remaining two years to be reminiscent of Bill Clinton’s, you could save your breath. Barrack Obama is not Bill Clinton. He is Barrack Obama. I doubt he has the ability, even if he had the desire.

I suppose we shall see. But for the moment, sitting here in my 9th floor office gazing from the darkness; a smile crosses my lips. And the curtain closes.

Staring Down The Meat Grinder

253 views

Yes I am down a demeaning 3%+ today, thank you for asking.

(Whispers sadistically)…WHO SAID THAT!?

(Eyes nervously twitching in all directions)

(Nervously laughs)…why, what else would I be on Tim Cook day?

What else would I be…?

_______________________________________________

Alright, upon externalizing my inner crazy, I feel better now. Today’s drawdown in everything I own, more or less, is most likely the mark of death touching the “SUPER SMART MONEY FUND MANAGERS”, liquidating them.

This action will most likely persist for several weeks more, with small and sharp bounces being met by fervent selling, as the “MOST INTELLIGENT PEOPLE YOU’VE EVER MET” continue to scale out of their late entry, money losing trades.

The 2014 blast off in names like HCLP was being driven in large sum by over allocation on the part of these hedge fund savants, blessings to humanity that they are. That is increasingly clear now. They conveniently showed up way after good entry could be had, provided those of us who actually have original ideas excellent opportunity to step out the door, hyped the crap out of these positions to people with 5 minute attention spans via cable networking, and are now immolating in a pyre.

Accordingly, the “ULTIMATE EXAMPLES OF HUMAN BEINGS ON EARTH” turned lit pieces of coal must be allowed to burn down before we can have some resolution to this little debacle. It is a most excellent buying opportunity to grab some great oil and gas companies…provided you still have both your arms.

As an extra thought, there is a lesson in all of this.

The hedge fund model is dead for the foreseeable future. Which is idiotic. The hedge fund model, on the face of it, makes complete sense. Hedge funds are supposed to be smaller, more versatile structures filled to the brim with excess money that comes from calmer and more financially secure sources. Fundamentally, the hedge fund world should persistently have an edge, free from jittery clients and hamstrung investment options.

In the beginning, that’s the way things were. Cue the copycats and mimics.

I have a long held theory, a secret point of view draped in conjecture: that the plights of the world can in many cases be seen best through the lens of the disappointing children of greater men and women. Mediocrity born behind the wheel; usually reserved for those who’ve demonstrated aptitude for actually handling it.

Everybody loves their children. Everybody wants to help their children succeed. And the result is the bastard sons of senators and business tycoons getting their start up funds seeded with doomed money; setting out into the world to be driven off a cliff or into a brick wall.

This is, in my imagination, the body of invisible and unseen forces currently bleeding all over my positions.

So the hedge fund mythos is dead. Heracles’ killed the Nemean Lion, but he couldn’t survive 6,000 posers dressing up like him and smashing his reputation to shit. Nice work, everyone. The whole concept will have to lie dead for a while, until this period gets smoothed over.

In the meantime, if you’re looking to trust a lucky sperm cell, have a close friend work off onto a four leaf clover – you’ll lose less money walking behind that.

IT HAS COME TO PASS

374 views

But o’ the joy that broke this afternoon! What delicious delight, scattering my sour mood to the sound of obsessed cackling laughter. One of my designs now comes to pass.

For years I have sat on CCJ, waiting patiently, unmoving. Made of stone, I was.

Now, no more waiting, it would seem. The gargoyle springs to life; the golem lives.

Japan has begun restarting the nuclear fleet at long last!

See the results for your own eyes.

“OH NO’S” More Dreaded Oil Slowdown

223 views

Courtesy of Platts:

Growth Rate Hit 15-Month High; China Imported Gasoline for 1st Time since Late-2011

SINGAPORE, Oct. 27, 2014 /PRNewswire/ — China’s apparent oil demand* in September climbed to the second-highest level since 2005, with a growth rate that was the sharpest in 15 months, according to a just-released Platts analysis of Chinese government data. Platts began tracking apparent oil demand in 2005.

Apparent oil demand in September was 42.34 million metric tons (mt), or an average 10.35 million barrels per day (b/d) – up 7.4% from the same month a year ago.

Analysts said previous stimulus measures by the local government, including loosening of credit controls; the lifting of the annual summer ban on fishing in China’s waters; and autumn harvest activity in the farming sector buoyed domestic oil demand.

On a month-over-month basis, China’s apparent oil demand in September rose 6.2% from August. During the first nine months of the year, total apparent oil demand was 9.95 million b/d, an increase of 1.8% from the same period last year.

Crude throughput by refineries in September jumped 9.1% year over year to 42.02 million mt, or an average 10.27 million b/d, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This was also the second-highest level on record and marks the third time this year that China’s refinery throughput exceeded 10 million b/d.

“The higher refinery run rates in September followed the end of a heavy schedule of refinery maintenance in summer,” said Song Yen Ling, Platts senior writer for China. “Major refineries, including PetroChina’s Lanzhou refinery and Sinopec’s Shijiazhuang refinery, returned to full operations after being closed in part or full for maintenance or upgrades.”

One interesting note – Platts says that China’s oil product imports are falling, down 19%. China is making even more in house than importing. Gasoline demand is also up 18%.

Previous Posts by Mr. Cain Thaler