Staring Down The Meat Grinder

Yes I am down a demeaning 3%+ today, thank you for asking.

(Whispers sadistically)…WHO SAID THAT!?

(Eyes nervously twitching in all directions)

(Nervously laughs)…why, what else would I be on Tim Cook day?

What else would I be…?

_______________________________________________

Alright, upon externalizing my inner crazy, I feel better now. Today’s drawdown in everything I own, more or less, is most likely the mark of death touching the “SUPER SMART MONEY FUND MANAGERS”, liquidating them.

This action will most likely persist for several weeks more, with small and sharp bounces being met by fervent selling, as the “MOST INTELLIGENT PEOPLE YOU’VE EVER MET” continue to scale out of their late entry, money losing trades.

The 2014 blast off in names like HCLP was being driven in large sum by over allocation on the part of these hedge fund savants, blessings to humanity that they are. That is increasingly clear now. They conveniently showed up way after good entry could be had, provided those of us who actually have original ideas excellent opportunity to step out the door, hyped the crap out of these positions to people with 5 minute attention spans via cable networking, and are now immolating in a pyre.

Accordingly, the “ULTIMATE EXAMPLES OF HUMAN BEINGS ON EARTH” turned lit pieces of coal must be allowed to burn down before we can have some resolution to this little debacle. It is a most excellent buying opportunity to grab some great oil and gas companies…provided you still have both your arms.

As an extra thought, there is a lesson in all of this.

The hedge fund model is dead for the foreseeable future. Which is idiotic. The hedge fund model, on the face of it, makes complete sense. Hedge funds are supposed to be smaller, more versatile structures filled to the brim with excess money that comes from calmer and more financially secure sources. Fundamentally, the hedge fund world should persistently have an edge, free from jittery clients and hamstrung investment options.

In the beginning, that’s the way things were. Cue the copycats and mimics.

I have a long held theory, a secret point of view draped in conjecture: that the plights of the world can in many cases be seen best through the lens of the disappointing children of greater men and women. Mediocrity born behind the wheel; usually reserved for those who’ve demonstrated aptitude for actually handling it.

Everybody loves their children. Everybody wants to help their children succeed. And the result is the bastard sons of senators and business tycoons getting their start up funds seeded with doomed money; setting out into the world to be driven off a cliff or into a brick wall.

This is, in my imagination, the body of invisible and unseen forces currently bleeding all over my positions.

So the hedge fund mythos is dead. Heracles’ killed the Nemean Lion, but he couldn’t survive 6,000 posers dressing up like him and smashing his reputation to shit. Nice work, everyone. The whole concept will have to lie dead for a while, until this period gets smoothed over.

In the meantime, if you’re looking to trust a lucky sperm cell, have a close friend work off onto a four leaf clover – you’ll lose less money walking behind that.

IT HAS COME TO PASS

But o’ the joy that broke this afternoon! What delicious delight, scattering my sour mood to the sound of obsessed cackling laughter. One of my designs now comes to pass.

For years I have sat on CCJ, waiting patiently, unmoving. Made of stone, I was.

Now, no more waiting, it would seem. The gargoyle springs to life; the golem lives.

Japan has begun restarting the nuclear fleet at long last!

See the results for your own eyes.

“OH NO’S” More Dreaded Oil Slowdown

Courtesy of Platts:

Growth Rate Hit 15-Month High; China Imported Gasoline for 1st Time since Late-2011

SINGAPORE, Oct. 27, 2014 /PRNewswire/ — China’s apparent oil demand* in September climbed to the second-highest level since 2005, with a growth rate that was the sharpest in 15 months, according to a just-released Platts analysis of Chinese government data. Platts began tracking apparent oil demand in 2005.

Apparent oil demand in September was 42.34 million metric tons (mt), or an average 10.35 million barrels per day (b/d) – up 7.4% from the same month a year ago.

Analysts said previous stimulus measures by the local government, including loosening of credit controls; the lifting of the annual summer ban on fishing in China’s waters; and autumn harvest activity in the farming sector buoyed domestic oil demand.

On a month-over-month basis, China’s apparent oil demand in September rose 6.2% from August. During the first nine months of the year, total apparent oil demand was 9.95 million b/d, an increase of 1.8% from the same period last year.

Crude throughput by refineries in September jumped 9.1% year over year to 42.02 million mt, or an average 10.27 million b/d, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This was also the second-highest level on record and marks the third time this year that China’s refinery throughput exceeded 10 million b/d.

“The higher refinery run rates in September followed the end of a heavy schedule of refinery maintenance in summer,” said Song Yen Ling, Platts senior writer for China. “Major refineries, including PetroChina’s Lanzhou refinery and Sinopec’s Shijiazhuang refinery, returned to full operations after being closed in part or full for maintenance or upgrades.”

One interesting note – Platts says that China’s oil product imports are falling, down 19%. China is making even more in house than importing. Gasoline demand is also up 18%.

The Window For The iBC Investor Conference Is Closing

A wonderful opportunity awaits you in Las Vegas, Nevada.

There you will receive teaching at the hands of a market sage – Jeff (the Option Addict) Kohler – two special presentations from successful industry practitioners Howard Lindzon and Jeff Macke, be served world class comestibles and carouse in the presence of your fellow men and women of industry.

That evening attend a special VIP event on the MGM Skyline Terrace. Mingle with your associates, expand your network, and perhaps, without realizing it, meet one of iBankCoin’s own writers travelling incognito.

Indeed I am please to announce all who attend the conference will also receive a free sample of iBankCoin’s newest featured product, the Income Investment Report.

The Income Investment Report is a quarterly interactive publication and PPT enhancing experience. Every quarter receive a detailed analysis of twenty five positions tailored for the investor seeking income from his or her portfolio. The Income Investment Report breaks down recent business fundamentals, risk exposures and relative pricing against hundreds of other possible income investments one could make.

The Income Investment Report is a publication of the highest quality – I should know, I wrote it.

If you are ready to commit to the best event you will attend all year, click here.

Hoist The King’s Flag

You were given a choice in life; to walk the path of righteousness or slither along the trail of the disreputable. Life was yours, to go where you will. The possibilities were endless and wonderful, reaching like skyscrapers in the eyes of a child’s imagination.

You chose to fly black sails and follow in the teachings of one “Tyler”.

Today will bring the reward deserving of a pirate. The Royal Navy is come crashing down upon your most pitiful crew with aim of sinking your vessels to the dark fathoms below. Any survivors will be hung by their necks on the shoreline, as a warning to other misty eyed urchins who might dare to dream of such a wanton lifestyle.

Practitioners of the Dark Arts shall be brought to justice today. Ho hum.

We’re Not Done Going Lower Yet

The EURUSD is not confirming the move, and oil prices have retraced. Yesterday’s powerful follow through into this morning has suckered people into the funnel.

For the moment, I don’t know if I want to sell any more. But one thing is clear to me – unless Europe can get its act together, we are going down.

Staring Down The Meat Grinder

Yes I am down a demeaning 3%+ today, thank you for asking.

(Whispers sadistically)…WHO SAID THAT!?

(Eyes nervously twitching in all directions)

(Nervously laughs)…why, what else would I be on Tim Cook day?

What else would I be…?

_______________________________________________

Alright, upon externalizing my inner crazy, I feel better now. Today’s drawdown in everything I own, more or less, is most likely the mark of death touching the “SUPER SMART MONEY FUND MANAGERS”, liquidating them.

This action will most likely persist for several weeks more, with small and sharp bounces being met by fervent selling, as the “MOST INTELLIGENT PEOPLE YOU’VE EVER MET” continue to scale out of their late entry, money losing trades.

The 2014 blast off in names like HCLP was being driven in large sum by over allocation on the part of these hedge fund savants, blessings to humanity that they are. That is increasingly clear now. They conveniently showed up way after good entry could be had, provided those of us who actually have original ideas excellent opportunity to step out the door, hyped the crap out of these positions to people with 5 minute attention spans via cable networking, and are now immolating in a pyre.

Accordingly, the “ULTIMATE EXAMPLES OF HUMAN BEINGS ON EARTH” turned lit pieces of coal must be allowed to burn down before we can have some resolution to this little debacle. It is a most excellent buying opportunity to grab some great oil and gas companies…provided you still have both your arms.

As an extra thought, there is a lesson in all of this.

The hedge fund model is dead for the foreseeable future. Which is idiotic. The hedge fund model, on the face of it, makes complete sense. Hedge funds are supposed to be smaller, more versatile structures filled to the brim with excess money that comes from calmer and more financially secure sources. Fundamentally, the hedge fund world should persistently have an edge, free from jittery clients and hamstrung investment options.

In the beginning, that’s the way things were. Cue the copycats and mimics.

I have a long held theory, a secret point of view draped in conjecture: that the plights of the world can in many cases be seen best through the lens of the disappointing children of greater men and women. Mediocrity born behind the wheel; usually reserved for those who’ve demonstrated aptitude for actually handling it.

Everybody loves their children. Everybody wants to help their children succeed. And the result is the bastard sons of senators and business tycoons getting their start up funds seeded with doomed money; setting out into the world to be driven off a cliff or into a brick wall.

This is, in my imagination, the body of invisible and unseen forces currently bleeding all over my positions.

So the hedge fund mythos is dead. Heracles’ killed the Nemean Lion, but he couldn’t survive 6,000 posers dressing up like him and smashing his reputation to shit. Nice work, everyone. The whole concept will have to lie dead for a while, until this period gets smoothed over.

In the meantime, if you’re looking to trust a lucky sperm cell, have a close friend work off onto a four leaf clover – you’ll lose less money walking behind that.

IT HAS COME TO PASS

But o’ the joy that broke this afternoon! What delicious delight, scattering my sour mood to the sound of obsessed cackling laughter. One of my designs now comes to pass.

For years I have sat on CCJ, waiting patiently, unmoving. Made of stone, I was.

Now, no more waiting, it would seem. The gargoyle springs to life; the golem lives.

Japan has begun restarting the nuclear fleet at long last!

See the results for your own eyes.

“OH NO’S” More Dreaded Oil Slowdown

Courtesy of Platts:

Growth Rate Hit 15-Month High; China Imported Gasoline for 1st Time since Late-2011

SINGAPORE, Oct. 27, 2014 /PRNewswire/ — China’s apparent oil demand* in September climbed to the second-highest level since 2005, with a growth rate that was the sharpest in 15 months, according to a just-released Platts analysis of Chinese government data. Platts began tracking apparent oil demand in 2005.

Apparent oil demand in September was 42.34 million metric tons (mt), or an average 10.35 million barrels per day (b/d) – up 7.4% from the same month a year ago.

Analysts said previous stimulus measures by the local government, including loosening of credit controls; the lifting of the annual summer ban on fishing in China’s waters; and autumn harvest activity in the farming sector buoyed domestic oil demand.

On a month-over-month basis, China’s apparent oil demand in September rose 6.2% from August. During the first nine months of the year, total apparent oil demand was 9.95 million b/d, an increase of 1.8% from the same period last year.

Crude throughput by refineries in September jumped 9.1% year over year to 42.02 million mt, or an average 10.27 million b/d, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This was also the second-highest level on record and marks the third time this year that China’s refinery throughput exceeded 10 million b/d.

“The higher refinery run rates in September followed the end of a heavy schedule of refinery maintenance in summer,” said Song Yen Ling, Platts senior writer for China. “Major refineries, including PetroChina’s Lanzhou refinery and Sinopec’s Shijiazhuang refinery, returned to full operations after being closed in part or full for maintenance or upgrades.”

One interesting note – Platts says that China’s oil product imports are falling, down 19%. China is making even more in house than importing. Gasoline demand is also up 18%.

The Window For The iBC Investor Conference Is Closing

A wonderful opportunity awaits you in Las Vegas, Nevada.

There you will receive teaching at the hands of a market sage – Jeff (the Option Addict) Kohler – two special presentations from successful industry practitioners Howard Lindzon and Jeff Macke, be served world class comestibles and carouse in the presence of your fellow men and women of industry.

That evening attend a special VIP event on the MGM Skyline Terrace. Mingle with your associates, expand your network, and perhaps, without realizing it, meet one of iBankCoin’s own writers travelling incognito.

Indeed I am please to announce all who attend the conference will also receive a free sample of iBankCoin’s newest featured product, the Income Investment Report.

The Income Investment Report is a quarterly interactive publication and PPT enhancing experience. Every quarter receive a detailed analysis of twenty five positions tailored for the investor seeking income from his or her portfolio. The Income Investment Report breaks down recent business fundamentals, risk exposures and relative pricing against hundreds of other possible income investments one could make.

The Income Investment Report is a publication of the highest quality – I should know, I wrote it.

If you are ready to commit to the best event you will attend all year, click here.

Hoist The King’s Flag

You were given a choice in life; to walk the path of righteousness or slither along the trail of the disreputable. Life was yours, to go where you will. The possibilities were endless and wonderful, reaching like skyscrapers in the eyes of a child’s imagination.

You chose to fly black sails and follow in the teachings of one “Tyler”.

Today will bring the reward deserving of a pirate. The Royal Navy is come crashing down upon your most pitiful crew with aim of sinking your vessels to the dark fathoms below. Any survivors will be hung by their necks on the shoreline, as a warning to other misty eyed urchins who might dare to dream of such a wanton lifestyle.

Practitioners of the Dark Arts shall be brought to justice today. Ho hum.

We’re Not Done Going Lower Yet

The EURUSD is not confirming the move, and oil prices have retraced. Yesterday’s powerful follow through into this morning has suckered people into the funnel.

For the moment, I don’t know if I want to sell any more. But one thing is clear to me – unless Europe can get its act together, we are going down.

Previous Posts by Mr. Cain Thaler