So far for 2015, it has proceeded very much like the end of 2014 in both scope and suffering endured by my person. Summer is coming to a close and it is time to make some preparations.
I wanted more cash; watching everything that is unfolding, and knowing the frequency of recessions in the United States, I have this horrible fear that we are not done going lower yet. China is teetering on the edge of ruin; a silly place that encourages a 5:4 male to female ratio, that likes to build huge train transit systems to everywhere but where they need to be, and that loves constructing entire Potemkin cities utterly devoid of people.
So I sold entirely out of ALDW. This is exactly what it looks like; selling winners and holding on to losers. I took my almost 40% gain and walked.
The trouble is that this 40% is counterbalancing some pretty ruinous action on the other half of my portfolio. HCLP has sunk lower that I ever believed HCLP could sink. BAS is a smoldering pile of ruin. VOC…don’t even talk about it.
The oil trade is dead, brought to the end in a most severe fashion. It is hardly the only tale of sorrow, but it is perhaps the worst.
And if we see Recession 2015: Welcome The Fuck Back materialize (trademark), well then…
Oil would stay down and ALDW and all fuel ventures would join them overnight. No thank you.
At this junction, betting we don’t go into a recession is equivalent to just betting on oil. I don’t need complicated hedges, thank you very much. They’re more likely to strangle me at inconvenient moments than actually help here.
If the recession fears don’t pan out, then make no mistake everything will be going much higher very soon.