Category Archives: Trades
There wasn’t much need to, but I took profits in the RGR and BAS shares I most recently purchased on the last “selloff”. The RGR shares were bought on 4/4 for $48.03 and the BAS shares were bought on 4/26 for $13.03.
I unloaded them for $50.78 and $13.98, respectively.
I also added to my SCO hedge for $37.30.
Even if I wasn’t expecting the annual recession scare(s), energy demand is clearly falling, and since most of my book is in CCJ and BAS, that leaves me exposed. As I believe this is the start of the next washout, it just makes sense to bunker myself.
Net equivalent cash position now stands north of 50% again, counting on EUO and SCO hedging.
I cleaned AGQ off my books for a high teens hit. It was a supplemental position to my physical silver – about 5% of the account when I bought it. 1% net loss, roughly, and now my positions should flow much nicer.
SCO is screaming higher as oil implodes. I reduced some of that hedging the other day for profits, but am retaining a position to help give me more neutrality. EUO is also pushing up, but not as fast or hard.
Mixed day so far. I’m expecting a big selloff. Defensive plays are the name of the game.
My favorite position right now: Cash
I dipped in and threw a couple percent on top of my RGR position for $48, which is way off following a fail to long-term moving averages.
I’m not sure what caused the selloff, but it’s a good buy here.
I’m still being very conservative with my cash. From last fall to date, I’ve played my hand flawlessly, and I don’t intend to start letting performance slip through my fingers now.
I sold out BXG at $9.98 from $9.78 for a small 2% gain. The arbitrage has occurred fully – pricing in approximately zero risk of the deal falling through.
The deal is set to close in April and not a peep out of the SEC or any promising noise from the lawsuit. It appears that one Mister Alan Levan has emerged triumphant in his quest to bankrupt his BBX shareholders by making huge all cash offers for corporations he probably isn’t sufficiently talented to manage.
Monsier Levan makes off with BXG’s MBS captive fund and all its glory. BBX, his equity flagship, continues taking multimillion dollar beatings. Levan’s reputation will be flacked by the SEC until they finally drop all charges (spineless cowards). And everybody eats mud, with the one exception of Al’s personal paycheck (which seems to be the only surviving party here).
Well done, Al…
I pray to whatever darkforces have been unearthed with the unsealing of Ploutonion to murder this deal. Should they answer my call, I will be waiting with cash to buy the knee jerk selloff, heavily. This is such a steal for this company, it’s almost unfair. Especially with the default rate on their property mortgages plummeting to below 6% like they have. And this firesale will barely fill in the whole Levan has left in BBX. The guy is using up all the fresh water to put out the fire he started.
It is absolutely repugnant.
I added a position in SCO for $40.19.
This takes my artificial cash position north of 50%. We are at the “edge of disappointment”, where things are neither good nor bad, but merely “meh”.
“Meh” gets you killed.
Europe will flare up again. Cyprus doesn’t matter particularly. The underlying reason we keep hearing about the EU is because the EU is fundamentally fucked on a spindle. The cost of holding the euro together, not just in terms of money, but in terms of man hours, resources, lost opportunities, bitter resentment, livelihood,…is just immense.
It’s never just about the money. When the economics and numbers don’t work, it should usually be a warning sign that you’re screwing something up largely. Money is a metric for measurement; hence why when obnoxious social justiciers whine about people only caring about the money – refusing to just go along with their latest “great idea” – I have a resounding urge to punch them in the throat.
I really don’t understand why European citizens are subjecting themselves to this. It’s not like they’re avoiding the losses…the pain is coming either way, so it’s a choice of accepting that, making changes to improve their underlying format, and moving on, or…not accepting that, getting the beat down anyway and setting themselves up for more failure later.
Anyways…Italian/Spanish/French debt is docile now, but it’s just a matter of time before the next explosion. Europe continues to miss deficit reduction targets by a quarter mile, and they’re all in recessions.
Dangers to the SCO position would include if the ECB and Fed were ever permitted to team up like Batman and Robin; doesn’t seem in the cards at the moment (or ever), but it’s worth stipulating that I really believe Bernanke & Co would view $150 oil as a “successful policy outcome.”
For the meantime, however, I’ve got decreasing industrial production overseas, an oil production bonanza here at home, and a hundred-years demographic movement towards smaller commutes all playing to my hand.
Alright, at around noon today, I looked around and said, “You know what? I’m out”. It’s not that I’m calling a top (I’m not). In fact, I think we go higher. But what’s coming for me?
My positions have really just slothed it up this last week or two. They’ve been sucking wind and I’m not going to suffer it.
And what comes after March? The summer?
I’m not waiting around for the summer, to watch gasoline prices, European stupidity, a budget crisis, 2014 HCR implementation jitters, the press crisis of choice (it’s sort of an option play on their part), US impaired foreign exchange rates and God-knows what else I missed rob my hard won gains.
I absolutely trounced this winter; I was all over this rally back in November when everyone was boarding up their windows. And I’ve got the winnings to show it.
The largest sale came from CCJ – I love that position and the uranium market, but I’m not dumb. It was hanging out at >25% of assets…and a little closer to 30%, if you follow me…
So I cleaned it up and paired it off to 20%, even. Then I went to work on the rest of my holdings.
I sold some shares of CCJ, AEC, CLP, RGR, and BAS.
I did not sell any BXG, EUO, AGQ or physical silver
Cash stands at 30%. Average position size is 6% of assets – overweight CCJ, silver (physical and products) and BAS.