Bought Back More HCLP for $59.39

Over the past week or so, I raised cash to 25%. This was good fortune, as HCLP, my mantelpiece position, has dropped 8% since I let up.

Today, I repurchased half of those shares, which I sold at $64.19 each, for $59.39.

It seems like good enough of a bet to me. HCLP is growing so fast… it’s trading at just over 17x Q3 2014 earnings estimates. I have no good way to guess what HCLP’s earning’s potential is over time; but 17x doesn’t seem unreasonable, particularly with a steady announcement of 5 year supply agreements being announced and 200% revenue growth last year. When you’ve managed to get in on the ground floor of such a high flying position, it just makes sense to hold long a core stake, and ride the waves.

This 8% drop is just another opportunity to make extra money, until such time as that logic is challenged. For the moment, HCLP just managed to touch its 20 day moving average for the first time since early June.

Next earnings announcement is in August. So tell me, who wants to stand in the way of this thing?

Sold UEC, SLW, Partial Sales of CCJ, HCLP

This morning:

I completely sold out of UEC (5% cash raise).

I completely sold out of SLW for +5% (11% cash raise)

I then sold down CCJ and HCLP (my two remaining largest positions) until my cash position was 25%.

HCLP remains my largest and most successful position this year, +170% since I bought it last August. CCJ is an idea I remain committed to, but it’s gone nowhere and I need some cash.

UEC is small, speculative, and just asking for a beat down.

SLW was a quick trade, not an investment.

It’s time to start letting off the gas. Because, let me ask you: isn’t this getting a little out of hand?

Made Another Round Of Purchases Of ETP

I redeployed some cash from yesterday’s sale of BAS, bidding up ETP for $57.64.

They announced today that they’re building a new pipeline connecting the Bakken oil reserves being built out in North Dakota to Illinois. More importantly, they announced they already have commitments from shippers in the form of long term agreements.

I like this partnership a lot. It pays almost 7% in distributions to unit holders annually, and their operation has a lot going for it.

Reduced Size Of BAS Position To 15% Of Assets

I made a large series of sales in BAS for $26.23 on average. These shares were sold for an average gain of 116% from my initial purchase price a few years ago.

This sale brings BAS back in line to a 15% position in my portfolio. It had been almost 25%. The 10% cash raise will sit on my books for now.

I ran some numbers, and from their last report, I’m thinking BAS was probably worth about $8 a share. This massive move higher has been from the company managing to stop the losses they were taking every quarter. However, the next major risk to the shares will be execution; can the company turn a profit?

I think I can see how the company could make $1.60 a year in earnings pretty easily. That puts an 11 year break even point, which is about the top end of my acceptable range. At this junction, the shares are a fair price, in my book.

But I love the company, so I’ll be keeping the 15% position I have in them. I think they don’t just turn $1.60. I think they surprise us all and make $2.50-3 per share annually, sending the shares into the $30-40 range.

I cannot justify keeping the massive ~25% of my portfolio in BAS though. That’s too much, and I do have a lot of money sitting on the table here. I’m only willing to take regular risks that Basic Energy Services makes the next step successfully, even though I’m confident they will.

New Position: SLW

I think the other contributors on this site are dead on about a new move in the precious metals, so I have my lotto ticket selected. I bought SLW for $24.90.

SLW has managed to keep revenues flat from 2011 to 2013; think about that. Gold and silver were cut down (silver lost more than 50% from the highs). But SLW held revenues flat.

How did they accomplish this? Well, part of it was probably that they weren’t getting the top dollar for their production anyway (either holding out for higher spot or held down by existing futures contracts). But an equally big attribute has been the unwavering stream of acquisitions they’ve been from 2011-2013.

They’ve been offsetting their own loss of revenues by buying out competitors.

That has put them in a curious position of being a very strong play on a rebound in silver and gold. In spite of that, when I look at their cash flows and financial position, they don’t look distressed (if you believe their filing, it’s foreign).

Personally, I don’t completely renounce my common sense here, and I’ll be on the look out for signs of trouble (for instance, creative accounting and instruments of financial destruction buttressing up their book).

But at the moment, taking a new position at these levels feels right enough. They pass the first smell test.

I offset the purchase will sales of HCLP and BAS.

No before you ask, I do not think HCLP or BAS are to be sold here, I just have way too much in them after they doubled this year. It made sense, while taking this new position, to use them to offset the purchase. My other positions were driven below 10%. I need to rebalance soon but want to wait to see if BAS and HCLP can break out further before I do too much.

Small Add To My BTU Position For $16.80

I added to BTU for $16.80. This is just a small addition; a couple of percent of my net worth.

This play on coal is to be edged into incrementally. There is no hurry.

I offset the purchase with a minor sale of HCLP, which has become outlandishly sized. It is near unanimously disproportionate to the rest of my holdings – I presently have more in HCLP than CCJ – which is astounding when you consider that CCJ has priced pretty steady to where I’ve held it, and it was once more than 20% of my portfolio.

HCLP makes up 26% of my holdings after today’s sale. I may pare back BAS and HCLP some more, just to get them back in line a little. I’ll think about it over the weekend.

Bought Back More HCLP for $59.39

Over the past week or so, I raised cash to 25%. This was good fortune, as HCLP, my mantelpiece position, has dropped 8% since I let up.

Today, I repurchased half of those shares, which I sold at $64.19 each, for $59.39.

It seems like good enough of a bet to me. HCLP is growing so fast… it’s trading at just over 17x Q3 2014 earnings estimates. I have no good way to guess what HCLP’s earning’s potential is over time; but 17x doesn’t seem unreasonable, particularly with a steady announcement of 5 year supply agreements being announced and 200% revenue growth last year. When you’ve managed to get in on the ground floor of such a high flying position, it just makes sense to hold long a core stake, and ride the waves.

This 8% drop is just another opportunity to make extra money, until such time as that logic is challenged. For the moment, HCLP just managed to touch its 20 day moving average for the first time since early June.

Next earnings announcement is in August. So tell me, who wants to stand in the way of this thing?

Sold UEC, SLW, Partial Sales of CCJ, HCLP

This morning:

I completely sold out of UEC (5% cash raise).

I completely sold out of SLW for +5% (11% cash raise)

I then sold down CCJ and HCLP (my two remaining largest positions) until my cash position was 25%.

HCLP remains my largest and most successful position this year, +170% since I bought it last August. CCJ is an idea I remain committed to, but it’s gone nowhere and I need some cash.

UEC is small, speculative, and just asking for a beat down.

SLW was a quick trade, not an investment.

It’s time to start letting off the gas. Because, let me ask you: isn’t this getting a little out of hand?

Made Another Round Of Purchases Of ETP

I redeployed some cash from yesterday’s sale of BAS, bidding up ETP for $57.64.

They announced today that they’re building a new pipeline connecting the Bakken oil reserves being built out in North Dakota to Illinois. More importantly, they announced they already have commitments from shippers in the form of long term agreements.

I like this partnership a lot. It pays almost 7% in distributions to unit holders annually, and their operation has a lot going for it.

Reduced Size Of BAS Position To 15% Of Assets

I made a large series of sales in BAS for $26.23 on average. These shares were sold for an average gain of 116% from my initial purchase price a few years ago.

This sale brings BAS back in line to a 15% position in my portfolio. It had been almost 25%. The 10% cash raise will sit on my books for now.

I ran some numbers, and from their last report, I’m thinking BAS was probably worth about $8 a share. This massive move higher has been from the company managing to stop the losses they were taking every quarter. However, the next major risk to the shares will be execution; can the company turn a profit?

I think I can see how the company could make $1.60 a year in earnings pretty easily. That puts an 11 year break even point, which is about the top end of my acceptable range. At this junction, the shares are a fair price, in my book.

But I love the company, so I’ll be keeping the 15% position I have in them. I think they don’t just turn $1.60. I think they surprise us all and make $2.50-3 per share annually, sending the shares into the $30-40 range.

I cannot justify keeping the massive ~25% of my portfolio in BAS though. That’s too much, and I do have a lot of money sitting on the table here. I’m only willing to take regular risks that Basic Energy Services makes the next step successfully, even though I’m confident they will.

New Position: SLW

I think the other contributors on this site are dead on about a new move in the precious metals, so I have my lotto ticket selected. I bought SLW for $24.90.

SLW has managed to keep revenues flat from 2011 to 2013; think about that. Gold and silver were cut down (silver lost more than 50% from the highs). But SLW held revenues flat.

How did they accomplish this? Well, part of it was probably that they weren’t getting the top dollar for their production anyway (either holding out for higher spot or held down by existing futures contracts). But an equally big attribute has been the unwavering stream of acquisitions they’ve been from 2011-2013.

They’ve been offsetting their own loss of revenues by buying out competitors.

That has put them in a curious position of being a very strong play on a rebound in silver and gold. In spite of that, when I look at their cash flows and financial position, they don’t look distressed (if you believe their filing, it’s foreign).

Personally, I don’t completely renounce my common sense here, and I’ll be on the look out for signs of trouble (for instance, creative accounting and instruments of financial destruction buttressing up their book).

But at the moment, taking a new position at these levels feels right enough. They pass the first smell test.

I offset the purchase will sales of HCLP and BAS.

No before you ask, I do not think HCLP or BAS are to be sold here, I just have way too much in them after they doubled this year. It made sense, while taking this new position, to use them to offset the purchase. My other positions were driven below 10%. I need to rebalance soon but want to wait to see if BAS and HCLP can break out further before I do too much.

Small Add To My BTU Position For $16.80

I added to BTU for $16.80. This is just a small addition; a couple of percent of my net worth.

This play on coal is to be edged into incrementally. There is no hurry.

I offset the purchase with a minor sale of HCLP, which has become outlandishly sized. It is near unanimously disproportionate to the rest of my holdings – I presently have more in HCLP than CCJ – which is astounding when you consider that CCJ has priced pretty steady to where I’ve held it, and it was once more than 20% of my portfolio.

HCLP makes up 26% of my holdings after today’s sale. I may pare back BAS and HCLP some more, just to get them back in line a little. I’ll think about it over the weekend.

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