Started A New Position In TIS

725 views

I purchased shares of TIS for $25.57, bringing my cash position down to 50%.

TIS is a smaller scale North American company that specializes in toiletry paper products. They have good financials and a reliable little operation. A nice little cash generating machine which, as of today, is available at an 8% discount to yesterday.

Not exciting or interesting at all, yet well positioned.

I’ve also got a hunch that companies like TIS will have surprise growth ahead. As I look at more or less the complete dissolution of an entire economy in South America, I can’t help but think that this kind of boring business will have some interesting opportunities over the next few years.

Venezuela is not going to stabilize without outside help. Maduro is too stupid to pull this off alone; the bus driver is going to need to allow some major imports of foreign goods at market prices to stabilize his economy. Or, more likely, whichever successor is first to be found standing over Maduro’s lifeless body will. An entire country is not going to be supplied by any one source, so I’d put good odds that manufacturers of basic products like this, all over North and South America, will stand to profit as supplies redirect southward.

Venezuela may be the worst, but hardly the only party here. There are a handful of similar styled countries in South America that have looming problems and will likely end up becoming ripe targets for North American supply.

Put 25% Cash To Work

397 views

Okay today is strong. There are dark spots, like the dollar and bonds. I know I said I would wait, but if I apply just 25% cash at these levels, I could get back to even quickly enough.

So I bought BAS, HCLP, and some VOC.

75% cash.

Cash To 50%

764 views

Something is just…wrong here. Isn’t it?

A supermarket chain in the UK dropped that much? Wouldn’t oil have helped them? Greece plunged 11%? The EURUSD is dead, plumming along at 1.24.

These are 2009 type moves we’re seeing here. I’ve been looking at each of these events in a bottle, because I was blind to the obscene money I was making. Taken together, they spell a rather dark picture.

I didn’t sell any BAS, just CCJ, VOC and HCLP. If we get a good relief rally, well…let’s just say, I’m skittish now.

Restructuring

708 views

Something had to be done.

It is December, so I cleared my head and made some tough choices. I sold completely out of AEC, ETP, and BTU. AEC and ETP are the only two positions I have that have held up (made money, really). I don’t want to part with them, but it’s the best move.

There will be immediate cries about selling winners and doubling down on losers. This is nonsense. I’m not doubling down on anything.

The sheer magnitude of this calamity has left me with an enormous, outstanding loss for the year. It’s December – no way in hell I can absorb that loss in less than 30 days.

The only way I can view this is as a window of opportunity to cash out my winners tax free.

Cash now stands at 25%.

I’m sitting on the cash. My preference, obviously, would be to deploy into a sector not at all tied to oil and gas. But if my worst fears come to fruition, that may not be a real thing.

Added To SXCP

166 views

I made purchases of SXCP for $24.64, adding to my position.

My current account balance stands at 118% margin.

My wash sale of NADL was total luck. I got pissed off at them for failing to close the deal with Rosneft so I spiked the ball and stormed off the field. That locked in a 15% loss. Well, the stock is down another 42% from that point. That would have been another 5% loss on the account. Not pretty but I’ll take it.

There is good strength in my positions this morning. BAS is up almost 8%; I’d take that with a grain of salt, it has been flipping 10% week over week, lately. But HCLP and VOC are both up about 4%, CCJ is up another 1%, and BTU is higher by 2%. AEC is taking a breather, now nearing $22. So is ETP, pushing on $68.

My holdings are AEC, CCJ, HCLP, BTU, BAS, ETP, VOC, SXCP, and physical silver.

Started A New Position In TIS

725 views

I purchased shares of TIS for $25.57, bringing my cash position down to 50%.

TIS is a smaller scale North American company that specializes in toiletry paper products. They have good financials and a reliable little operation. A nice little cash generating machine which, as of today, is available at an 8% discount to yesterday.

Not exciting or interesting at all, yet well positioned.

I’ve also got a hunch that companies like TIS will have surprise growth ahead. As I look at more or less the complete dissolution of an entire economy in South America, I can’t help but think that this kind of boring business will have some interesting opportunities over the next few years.

Venezuela is not going to stabilize without outside help. Maduro is too stupid to pull this off alone; the bus driver is going to need to allow some major imports of foreign goods at market prices to stabilize his economy. Or, more likely, whichever successor is first to be found standing over Maduro’s lifeless body will. An entire country is not going to be supplied by any one source, so I’d put good odds that manufacturers of basic products like this, all over North and South America, will stand to profit as supplies redirect southward.

Venezuela may be the worst, but hardly the only party here. There are a handful of similar styled countries in South America that have looming problems and will likely end up becoming ripe targets for North American supply.

Put 25% Cash To Work

397 views

Okay today is strong. There are dark spots, like the dollar and bonds. I know I said I would wait, but if I apply just 25% cash at these levels, I could get back to even quickly enough.

So I bought BAS, HCLP, and some VOC.

75% cash.

Cash To 50%

764 views

Something is just…wrong here. Isn’t it?

A supermarket chain in the UK dropped that much? Wouldn’t oil have helped them? Greece plunged 11%? The EURUSD is dead, plumming along at 1.24.

These are 2009 type moves we’re seeing here. I’ve been looking at each of these events in a bottle, because I was blind to the obscene money I was making. Taken together, they spell a rather dark picture.

I didn’t sell any BAS, just CCJ, VOC and HCLP. If we get a good relief rally, well…let’s just say, I’m skittish now.

Restructuring

708 views

Something had to be done.

It is December, so I cleared my head and made some tough choices. I sold completely out of AEC, ETP, and BTU. AEC and ETP are the only two positions I have that have held up (made money, really). I don’t want to part with them, but it’s the best move.

There will be immediate cries about selling winners and doubling down on losers. This is nonsense. I’m not doubling down on anything.

The sheer magnitude of this calamity has left me with an enormous, outstanding loss for the year. It’s December – no way in hell I can absorb that loss in less than 30 days.

The only way I can view this is as a window of opportunity to cash out my winners tax free.

Cash now stands at 25%.

I’m sitting on the cash. My preference, obviously, would be to deploy into a sector not at all tied to oil and gas. But if my worst fears come to fruition, that may not be a real thing.

Added To SXCP

166 views

I made purchases of SXCP for $24.64, adding to my position.

My current account balance stands at 118% margin.

My wash sale of NADL was total luck. I got pissed off at them for failing to close the deal with Rosneft so I spiked the ball and stormed off the field. That locked in a 15% loss. Well, the stock is down another 42% from that point. That would have been another 5% loss on the account. Not pretty but I’ll take it.

There is good strength in my positions this morning. BAS is up almost 8%; I’d take that with a grain of salt, it has been flipping 10% week over week, lately. But HCLP and VOC are both up about 4%, CCJ is up another 1%, and BTU is higher by 2%. AEC is taking a breather, now nearing $22. So is ETP, pushing on $68.

My holdings are AEC, CCJ, HCLP, BTU, BAS, ETP, VOC, SXCP, and physical silver.

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