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$OMAB

Sold Out Of OMAB

I traded out of OMAB, going into the bell, for $40.36 a share. I added +6.6% in price appreciation, plus another +3.8% in dividends collected, for a return of +10.4% over

This is just not that big of a return, but I need to be honest about how this year is going. I’ve taken write downs and it makes sense to offset those losses with gains wherever possible.

OMAB’s growth rate has been slowing down from the stellar +17% it was at the beginning of the year, now at around +12%. Double digit growth is still impressive but aside from that, at the end of the day, I was still the owner of a Mexican airline company.

The reasoning behind the position was to ride cheap fuel and a rebounding consumer. But after this past year, the last thing I need is any more fucker.

And Mexican companies are nothing but fuckery.

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What’s 15% To OMAB?

A cloudy day wafts across the window of the 9th Floor. The lingering smell of lunch sits in the air while the soft office sounds of my typing keep me company.

What is 15% to OMAB, I ask you?

15% is how much passenger growth OMAB had in September of 2015 over September 2014. The company was growing at a 17% clip. That has moderated 2% to a still impressive 15% annual growth rate.

After the second quarter, revenue growth stood at 36.41%. 19.74% of that was hiking sales prices, and the rest was volume of business.

The stock is in a state of permanent liftoff, and it’s one of the bright spots on my year.

OMAB strategically has two major things going for it. The first is a strong dollar which makes travel for nearby US residents much cheaper. And the second is ultra cheap fuel prices which are coming fast thanks to the crude implosion.

As it becomes more affordable for vacation travel, OMAB’s core business model is going to benefit directly.

I am waiting excitedly to hear how OMAB’s latest quarter shaped up. The company is on a tear.

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What A Wonderful Day

I am 70% long, and this is what my day looked like:

BAS +12.61%
CCJ +7.56%
HCLP +3.42%
ALDW +1.99%
VOC +1.76%
TIS +1.48%
OMAB +0.70%

It’s difficult to scoff at a day like that.

Yes I am still down from 2014. I have no desire to hide behind spin. 2014 was a horrible year. But as I said to those of you asking why I was still hanging around BAS, it was because BAS had 100% of upside…at least. And now here we are, closing in on $10 from $5.

I like all on the list. I’ve carefully vetted these positions and wouldn’t it be something if it was these same positions that ultimately redeemed me? I’m not wedded to the thought (for fear it will kill me) but it’s certainly quite possible.

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OMAB Traffic Trends 23% Higher In March, Year Over Year

OMAB operations continue the ascent as traffic in March rose 22.9% year over year. Total traffic in the first three months of 2015 compared to 2014 rose 17.5% across domestic and international travel. This compares to February passenger growth of 17.0% with total traffic growth in the first two months of 14.5%. January traffic growth, 2015 from 2014, was 12.2%.

OMAB is on fire right now, and the name is on nobody’s watchlist. The stock is in a long uptrend and still cheap. It’s paying out over 7% annually, which in this interest rate environment is some sort of crime.

I cannot wait for the next quarterly earnings report. It is going to be gangbusters.

9th Floor, out.

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OMAB 4Q Results Were Strong

I purchased OMAB, a Mexican airline company, is December of last year. OMAB has been putting up strong performance numbers and yet remains very much off the radar of most investors. They have control of some key geographical regions; hotspot destinations for vacationers.

Passenger traffic grew greater than 14% alone in the fourth quarter of 2014, year over year. The 2014 year showed passenger growth of greater than 10% – accelerating into year end.

Income from operations grew 56% in the fourth quarter of 2014 year over year, and total 2014 income increased 23%. Revenues grew 6% in the fourth quarter versus 9% for the 2014 year. Adjusted EBITA were up 14% in the fourth quarter and up 13% year over year.

OMAB is growing fast and aggressively and yet is still priced very competitively.

Thanks to lower fuel prices, OMAB is blessed with strong wind behind their sales. You could also reasonably make the case that stronger consumers are finally making time for long put-off vacations. OMAB is growing amenities in airport locations to expand non-core revenue.

Naturally I am looking forward to see how they do in 2015.

Note: I apologize for being somewhat absent the past few weeks. My wife had some health complications which have consumed vast amounts of my time.

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Good Showing Today

Not bad all things considered. CCJ, HCLP, OMAB and TIS all went higher, with HCLP up more than 4%, OMAB up more than 3%, and TIS up more than 2%. BAS was down 1%, but this is a process.

BAS just recently announced their rig count numbers. Utilizations are way down, from 67% at the beginning of 2014 to 56% today. 4% has occurred just since the start of the new year.

Well? We’ve seen that these methods are more expensive. Now let’s see how cheap they can be. And who’s going to be around next year. My guess; BAS are champs.

If oil prices run back to $100 now that Russia has decided to play nice, I will die from laughing. The days of global competition are done; the USA is the victor. I know you defeatists want to apologize for our might – it’s nothing but luck of course, and that is somewhat true – and rekindle the “peaceful” yester-years of blood thirsty despots butchering the peasants for land and spoils, never ending. Save your breath.

Someone was going to win this game sooner or later, and it looks like that someone is us. Rather than wishing upon us another 1,000 years of savagery, suck it up and move on. You could hardly ask for a more genteel ruler than America, no? What other nation has ever spent this much time self-reflecting and prostrating over the vanquished?

Our President’s order is about to smote tens of thousands to ruin. And when he is finished, he will give a long, sophomoric lecture on the importance of civility and equal opportunity in the global marketplace. Could you imagine the look on the faces of Genghis Khan or Alexander the Great, if they could see such a spectacle? I imagine they would have both cast down their arms and retired to spend their final days as hermits.

What comes next is very important. The crowd is skittish, but today surely helped. We need Brent to breach $60 soon, and it would be very constructive if bond yields of the safe havens could, you know…yield something again.

The people are very scared of the Eurozone breaking up…for why, I could not possibly tell you. The euro has brought nothing but suffering on the nations of Europe. It was as if a spattering of intellectuals across the continent tried to trick Germans, French, Greeks, Italians, Spaniards, Finnish, Austrians, Belgians, Irish, Dutch, and Portuguese people into thinking they were all from the same place, like they wouldn’t figure it out.

It seems that way because that was exactly what happened. Such a brainless ploy. And almost set up to fail, from the beginning. The number of American economists, almost uniformly and unanimously across all walks of life, that laughed at this idea; it is incredible.

I will spoil the ending. Greece is going to walk away from the Eurozone, and nobody will care.

Did creating the Eurozone destroy the global economy in the first place? There were many currencies that were trading one day that didn’t the next. The euro came out and life went on. Reversing the process is no different, except at the end of the rainbow, Greece defaults and ruins their credit rating for a decade, and a bunch of banks get whacked (what else is new?). Then voila! we have a brand new example of what not to do when managing a country, as Greece becomes the butt of jokes for a half century (see France as to fighting wars or Venezuela as to not being filthy animals, for reference).

I remain cash heavy for now, but am looking for that moment when people start getting excited again.

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