Alright, so the instant I switched over from “merely rapaciously expectant” to “full blown, mind numbingly jubilant”, the market turned on a dime and started punching participants in the face. That should have been clear before I did it. It always happens like that.
So on behalf of everyone whose kids can’t attend college now, I’d like to say, “I’m sorry.”
In times like this, it can always be difficult to answer that most important of questions. No not, “am I properly managing risk.” I’m talking about the even more important inquiry…”Whose fault is this?”
Now, there are several ways you could play this. Personally, I’ve decided to blame it on people using trailing stops. Dicks…littering their homes with half eaten burgers strewn around in McDonald’s bags all over the floor…all while smoking and ashing right on top of them…just begging to burn their house down…
There, you see how I did that? Make sure you ramble a little and trial off at intervals, to really get the “I’m-slightly-unhinged-talking-almost-to-myself” effect.
At any rate, the markets are getting lit up, and all is despair. If you’ve been living the Pisani lifestyle, I’m afraid you’ll be made to eat your hat by a short seller, who will watch you doing it while flinging small handfuls of sand in your eyes. It hurts, I understand. You have my sympathy.
Thankfully, I had the foresight to sell into the strength as opposed to throwing weight on the downdraft and cutting myself down by 5%+ all in one go.
My anticipation, for the moment, is that we will finish this selloff quickly and then surge higher.
I made a (now obviously) misguided purchase of AGQ a few days ago, but other than that I’ve been very good about holding that cash and keeping my hands off it. EUO, my hedge, is running, as this selloff seems to be driven as much by dollar strength as anything else.
The REITs are holding up decently well; AEC and CLP having nothing but cash and sterling operations.
BAS is not so fortunate.
If you owned BAS and didn’t know this quarter was going to be hard: please dispatch yourself in a grueling fashion. That was the most obvious loss in the history of loss-taking. Still BAS is way up from last year and I will consider adding on dips.
CCJ got hit yesterday as well, and RGR seems to be collapsing predominantly on profit taking. Both are buys; both will see much higher prices.
Finally, silver. Silver is the butt of jokes being told on Twitter; that place where everybody sees everything coming and makes 500% annually. Well, the jokes going to be on all of you. Silver is going to explode higher when you least expect it. I remember the circus at $15 /ounce. How it was going single digits. Then it lit you up.
I remember when it went from $50 to $25, and the same people were guffawing how it was going back to $15. Then it lit you up again.
Now it’s off to below $30 (meanwhile the Fed is dropping money like it’s worthless), and the same folks are howling that it’s all done for.