I drained much of my remaining cash position, adding to BAS and CCJ.
I’m committed to a holiday rally. I have only a trace amount of cash left. I have not dipped into margin trading.
If a bottom doesn’t materialize within a week to a week and a half, I will reassess.
Comments »And BAS is down another 5% today, perhaps as a product of follow through weakness in the sector, an announcement that they intend to raise $250 million, or it’s just leading the charge after Ben Bernanke’s…um…what the hell was the point of that speech anyway?
I don’t know; you pick the reason. None of them really makes sense.
After Key Energy’s disappointing guidance, the investing world is scared – scared, mind you – of any (already highly likely and anticipated) forward guidance that is anything less than what was expected at the beginning of 2012.
Of course, the entire energy sector sold off hard between then and now, rendering all the fracking companies dirt cheap. And secretly, we all know that natural gas / oil extraction in this country is going to continue to expand voraciously. And especially so just as soon as we get some more base demand online and some natural gas price stability. Which looking at coal miners crumpling, will be coming shortly.
Hell, we don’t even need demand for natural gas – just somewhere to put the God damned stuff would suffice…
But that’s all unimportant now. If BAS should print numbers that show a lower growth rate, even though we all know it’s probably just a lull, the market is preparing to give the stock a PE ratio that reflects the disappointment in its entirety.
This is a grave mispricing, in my mind. But hey, I’m happy to embrace and buy the plunge. Both Obama and Romney appear to be very accommodating to the drilling taking place in this country. And to me, energy services companies are still the best way to try and play a bottom in natural gas prices without actually getting beneath that falling piano.
Meanwhile, BAS persists in being one of the only energy services companies that actually has any cash on hand. They’re about to have $250 million more. If we get the slowdown everyone is bracing for, I can tell you without hesitation it will kill dozens of the weaker players. They have no cash on hand; no buffer to absorb shock.
With BAS, I’m looking ahead, to a time when natural gas production is expanding again, even slower than it was this past year; to when natural gas demand has grown on the backs of cheap volumes; and to where BAS is one of the only remaining players.
Comments »Look, I don’t want to talk about today, and especially not BAS which is ground zero for this selloff.
I don’t see how revenue downgrades are news. BAS already said they expected revenues to contract by at least as much as the market seems to be fretting over. This was on the table months ago. You’re only just now realizing it if you’ve had your head up your ass.
I’d much rather focus on the promising move in SKUL, which is preparing for an EPIC short squeeze.
It’s Christmas time…
Comments »I’ve been watching my BAS position, along with the entire energy services sector, being thrown off a highrise all morning.
I don’t know why, but all of a sudden, economic contraction matters again. Let’s gloss over that the entire planet has been in an industrial contraction since mid-2010, uninterrupted, and that this is not news in the least.
Let’s ignore that demand for basic materials ranging from oil to metals has been channeling downward only sporadically delayed from momentary noise – for two straight years.
Let’s pretend we didn’t already know this was happening.
Because about a month ago, everything was fine. And now, right now, it matters. We just cannot go on.
“Did you know Italy’s economy contracted last quarter?”
Well gee, I could have guessed. Something about it also contracting every other quarter for the prior 8…
At any rate, BAS is being unfairly hit here. I’ve been through their books, and they’re trading reasonable. Even with broad slowdown, they’re basically in a position to absorb the shock. And they’re a survivor – I welcome industry consolidation because BAS will emerge the winner.
So I added to BAS for $11.31.
Cash stands at 10%
Comments »Hahahahhaha BAS shorts are in the incinerator now. The company is one of the highest moving stocks on volume, on the announcement that Bernanke is hell bent on higher commodity prices. BAS is going to $18+…go ahead and quote me on that.
My position is in around $12, 10% of my portfolio at the time.
On or around August 28, a series of BLATANT hit pieces on BAS surfaced, portending that a sudden rise in demand for put options revealed a huge reversal imminent. These pieces, mostly disseminated by Yahoo Finance (the market manipulator’s preferred financial news source) and then hyper-linked on Twitter, led to massive losses in the name, cratering the stock by over 15%.
I am here to say, I outlasted you and your villainy. Another 2% and I will be back to even. All this redeeming occurred in a matter of just 3 short days.
What this tells me is that there was no real reason for BAS to have ever traded down in the first place. Demand for BAS shares is strong, and this was nothing shy of a coordinated attack orchestrated by unseen persons.
I can only hope that those of you behind this baleful comportment met your untimely demise, trapped in your own wickedness. However, I know better.
Market manipulators are wonted cowards, spineless from birth and devoid of any of the compulsions necessary for greatness.
Bereft of these qualities, they are forced to lurk in closets, casting aspersions on passerby’s. Rumors, gossip, lies, and all other physiognomies of wretched prevaricators are their haunts, and they lurk slyly out of sight, misleading the ignorant and gullible to their dooms.
The pests who caused this selloff were long gone before now, taking the easy profits, probably within the first 10% of downside, before scampering off back to their rat nests.
So instead I must hope that any who believed this racket learned their lesson – through fire.
This is what you deserve if you’re senseless enough to believe that a sudden demand for put options of all things is a guide to where stocks should be trading.
Funny enough, but in either case of a put or call option, the exact same relationship is being established; whereby one party receives cash with an obligation to transact stocks. The ONLY difference is on which party – long or short – gets to elect whether or not to exercise the terms of the contract.
A sudden demand for put options could be as much a desire to have temporary insurance as any direct evidence that prices of a security should go lower.
Someone played you for a sucker, BAS shorts, getting you to take a position against a company that ALREADY had 20% of their average float tied outstanding.
Now you get what you have coming to you.
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