The Melt Up Is Upon Us

There is no limit to the benevolence of my portfolio today. HCLP spurred out the gate and is now closing in on $70, +5.4% in the first half of today’s trading.

CCJ and BAS are second runners up. Most everything else is green, with only new half position PSEC and NRP breaking the pattern at the moment.

No one wants to hold short into the Labor Day weekend. Bears have been conditioned over the past five years that long weekends deal death to misers.

My account is up +2.3% today. I’m tempted to take a few sales at lunch, just to prepare for September (the biggest dick of all the months).

The world is my tainted oyster (which is only an odd statement if you knew that I don’t like oysters). Now, as you were.

Friday’s Purchases Working Hard Today

The buys of CCJ, HCLP and BAS I made before leaving for the weekend are all working today, up markedly.

Everything else I have is also pacing, as we reached oversold levels last week that warranted a strong bounce.

I’ll give you a small hint: I’m personally terrible at these short term inflection points. My style is very much long term allocation to the right place at no particular time. It works; sure I have no complaints on my own performance.

But even though I have no personal trading skills, I’ve still made a killing trading the past few years. How, you ask yourselves?

Why with the help of The PPT, of course.

The quality work of The PPT has enabled focused investors like myself to become well rounded performers. Where before I would have been limited to strictly my own strategies, I can now diversify my tactics to a trading pattern around those strategies, multiplying my profit potential.

It is a community where each of us outsources our strengths to one another. And it is high time you get off the fence and add a subscription.

Made Some Purchases

I bought back shares of HCLP and BAS that I unloaded on the run up, as they are both off 10-15% from the highs and we are just a short span away from a bounce.

HCLP reports earnings soon, and I expect nothing less than magnanimous triumph.

Down Over 2% Today

Well, the hubris post did it, and pointing out that when I crossed 20% YTD gains timed the top with almost cruel exactness. Just as we all knew it would.

BAS is taking the session the hardest for me, down almost 7%. They started a correction after earnings, and it looks to be picking up speed. My guess is a retest of the 200 day, putting them just over $20 a share, at which time I will be a buyer.

MAA is second worst, down over 5% on a disappointing…Core FFO number? FFO is very important in the real estate market, because it prices out depreciation of construction (which so long as your structure is sound is irrelevant). But they also just doubled their operation by acquiring my old position CLP, and seem to be continuing the spirit of development and expansion. They have sound debt levels making the process easier, with plenty of room to add leverage. And a strong wind at their backs in the form of a rising rent environment. I’m holding here because a 4% dividend and steady growth make MAA a sound enough investment once this passes.

Following next is a roughly four way tie between BTU, NRP, HCLP, and ETP. There seems to be a theme today of energy names being punished a little worse than the indices. Then again, people have hated coal for years and half the energy sector has huge gains unrealized with ample volume to round about escape losses elsewhere, so maybe this makes perfect sense.

CCJ had a good earnings report, continuing to kick the uranium market doldrums by personally doing just fine. Their long term contracts persist in rewarding them with a price well above the dismal spot market, and sales volumes have increased. So the market has rewarded them by only selling off 1.5%.

(Actually, I need to be honest. I am concerned that CCJ has managed to perform this well in this environment. Particularly because despite the better sales and earnings, they continued to lose cash – the only thing that really matters – and in light of the recent revelations of overseas corporations acting to enable financial games with their taxes. I’m going to be sniffing around very closely here, because I will not become prey to some corporate Enron nonsense)

AEC and silver are my “best” positions, each down “only” less than 1%.

Okay, so the market is getting clubbed. What do we do about it?

Well, if you’re in my position – and if you’ve been following me, that is quite possible – up still over 15% for the year, then the answer is pretty clear. You do nothing.

I can afford to do nothing here, to see if this hard drop doesn’t stabilize quickly and lead us higher through August. We should hit a bottom pretty quick. I don’t yet see a good catalyst for a major drop, outside of the regular bank failings and global “World War” heckling that usually bogs us down. For the moment, that’s no excuse to panic.

China, Europe, and most the rest of the world haven’t exactly been doing awesome before now. This isn’t news.

So there’s no rush here. 13% YTD gains is my floor. When I hit that point, I go to cash fast, because my year will be at least +13%. 13% because I was stuck between 10% and 15%, so let’s take the black prime number in the middle (scientific, right?).

My 1,001st Post – It’s About BAS

To think the post before this one was my 1,000th since joining the site. I would have had more fanfare if I had realized. But then the best tribute I can make is to march onward with the good work.

BAS reported earnings last night of $0.06 a share – $0.13 excluding one time items. So far this morning, BAS is gapping down 10% (and counting).

This is honestly a pretty good showing. They lost $0.10 a share last quarter, so they swung $0.23 cents into profits.

The company has grown revenues 12% from this time last year. Revenues are 8.5% higher from last quarter.

At the moment, the CEO is anticipating another 4-6% lift in revenues in the third quarter. That should be good for another $3-4 million in profits for shareholders, so I’d expect earnings to lift another $0.20 or so at the next report. That would put us at ~$1.30 annually with a full quarter left to go in 2014.

Beyond that, I see more shareholder value being unlocked as the cost of capital continues to come down and natural gas adoption progresses.

The stock is cratering this morning on profit taking (it’s priced pretty fairly right now, in line with the rest of the market), but I’d guess it recovers soon enough. We’re on track to make that $1.60 annually I mentioned, and the $2.50-3.00 surprise I also hoped for is not out of the question. Barring some sort of major stumble, the stock should be in the vicinity of $35 by Christmas.

After all, if they keep this tempo, they’re at $2.00 yearly earnings by the start of 2015.

Checking In – Year To Date +16%

I haven’t checked in much recently, and for good reason. You, dear reader, probably check out of life enough without having an excuse to. There’s a big bright world outside, and you are missing it, neglecting your children in favor of reading a blog on the internet, run by a man you have never met.

Today, the weather is crappy (in my neck of the woods, anyway), so I will take a minute to scrawl out some thoughts. But really, go outside already.

When you are lying on your death bed, you are not going to regret never getting to read another stock picking article. If you are a normal man, you will probably regret not staring at clouds more often. Or gazing at the stars. Or feeling the warm breeze on your skin, standing by the water.

You may check in once per day to read my work. You have my permission. But other than that, get your ass outside. You’re not getting any younger, buddy.

Writing has been scant here because I have been following my own advise. Despite this neglect, my person is doing just fine. Year to date, my gains are just now over 16%. CCJ has pushed back above $20, and if it can recover to $23, I’ll be sitting inside 20% shortly.

Almost all my positions are higher. HCLP and BAS seem to be breathing, but that’s alright. Everything is holding up well.

The Melt Up Is Upon Us

There is no limit to the benevolence of my portfolio today. HCLP spurred out the gate and is now closing in on $70, +5.4% in the first half of today’s trading.

CCJ and BAS are second runners up. Most everything else is green, with only new half position PSEC and NRP breaking the pattern at the moment.

No one wants to hold short into the Labor Day weekend. Bears have been conditioned over the past five years that long weekends deal death to misers.

My account is up +2.3% today. I’m tempted to take a few sales at lunch, just to prepare for September (the biggest dick of all the months).

The world is my tainted oyster (which is only an odd statement if you knew that I don’t like oysters). Now, as you were.

Friday’s Purchases Working Hard Today

The buys of CCJ, HCLP and BAS I made before leaving for the weekend are all working today, up markedly.

Everything else I have is also pacing, as we reached oversold levels last week that warranted a strong bounce.

I’ll give you a small hint: I’m personally terrible at these short term inflection points. My style is very much long term allocation to the right place at no particular time. It works; sure I have no complaints on my own performance.

But even though I have no personal trading skills, I’ve still made a killing trading the past few years. How, you ask yourselves?

Why with the help of The PPT, of course.

The quality work of The PPT has enabled focused investors like myself to become well rounded performers. Where before I would have been limited to strictly my own strategies, I can now diversify my tactics to a trading pattern around those strategies, multiplying my profit potential.

It is a community where each of us outsources our strengths to one another. And it is high time you get off the fence and add a subscription.

Made Some Purchases

I bought back shares of HCLP and BAS that I unloaded on the run up, as they are both off 10-15% from the highs and we are just a short span away from a bounce.

HCLP reports earnings soon, and I expect nothing less than magnanimous triumph.

Down Over 2% Today

Well, the hubris post did it, and pointing out that when I crossed 20% YTD gains timed the top with almost cruel exactness. Just as we all knew it would.

BAS is taking the session the hardest for me, down almost 7%. They started a correction after earnings, and it looks to be picking up speed. My guess is a retest of the 200 day, putting them just over $20 a share, at which time I will be a buyer.

MAA is second worst, down over 5% on a disappointing…Core FFO number? FFO is very important in the real estate market, because it prices out depreciation of construction (which so long as your structure is sound is irrelevant). But they also just doubled their operation by acquiring my old position CLP, and seem to be continuing the spirit of development and expansion. They have sound debt levels making the process easier, with plenty of room to add leverage. And a strong wind at their backs in the form of a rising rent environment. I’m holding here because a 4% dividend and steady growth make MAA a sound enough investment once this passes.

Following next is a roughly four way tie between BTU, NRP, HCLP, and ETP. There seems to be a theme today of energy names being punished a little worse than the indices. Then again, people have hated coal for years and half the energy sector has huge gains unrealized with ample volume to round about escape losses elsewhere, so maybe this makes perfect sense.

CCJ had a good earnings report, continuing to kick the uranium market doldrums by personally doing just fine. Their long term contracts persist in rewarding them with a price well above the dismal spot market, and sales volumes have increased. So the market has rewarded them by only selling off 1.5%.

(Actually, I need to be honest. I am concerned that CCJ has managed to perform this well in this environment. Particularly because despite the better sales and earnings, they continued to lose cash – the only thing that really matters – and in light of the recent revelations of overseas corporations acting to enable financial games with their taxes. I’m going to be sniffing around very closely here, because I will not become prey to some corporate Enron nonsense)

AEC and silver are my “best” positions, each down “only” less than 1%.

Okay, so the market is getting clubbed. What do we do about it?

Well, if you’re in my position – and if you’ve been following me, that is quite possible – up still over 15% for the year, then the answer is pretty clear. You do nothing.

I can afford to do nothing here, to see if this hard drop doesn’t stabilize quickly and lead us higher through August. We should hit a bottom pretty quick. I don’t yet see a good catalyst for a major drop, outside of the regular bank failings and global “World War” heckling that usually bogs us down. For the moment, that’s no excuse to panic.

China, Europe, and most the rest of the world haven’t exactly been doing awesome before now. This isn’t news.

So there’s no rush here. 13% YTD gains is my floor. When I hit that point, I go to cash fast, because my year will be at least +13%. 13% because I was stuck between 10% and 15%, so let’s take the black prime number in the middle (scientific, right?).

My 1,001st Post – It’s About BAS

To think the post before this one was my 1,000th since joining the site. I would have had more fanfare if I had realized. But then the best tribute I can make is to march onward with the good work.

BAS reported earnings last night of $0.06 a share – $0.13 excluding one time items. So far this morning, BAS is gapping down 10% (and counting).

This is honestly a pretty good showing. They lost $0.10 a share last quarter, so they swung $0.23 cents into profits.

The company has grown revenues 12% from this time last year. Revenues are 8.5% higher from last quarter.

At the moment, the CEO is anticipating another 4-6% lift in revenues in the third quarter. That should be good for another $3-4 million in profits for shareholders, so I’d expect earnings to lift another $0.20 or so at the next report. That would put us at ~$1.30 annually with a full quarter left to go in 2014.

Beyond that, I see more shareholder value being unlocked as the cost of capital continues to come down and natural gas adoption progresses.

The stock is cratering this morning on profit taking (it’s priced pretty fairly right now, in line with the rest of the market), but I’d guess it recovers soon enough. We’re on track to make that $1.60 annually I mentioned, and the $2.50-3.00 surprise I also hoped for is not out of the question. Barring some sort of major stumble, the stock should be in the vicinity of $35 by Christmas.

After all, if they keep this tempo, they’re at $2.00 yearly earnings by the start of 2015.

Checking In – Year To Date +16%

I haven’t checked in much recently, and for good reason. You, dear reader, probably check out of life enough without having an excuse to. There’s a big bright world outside, and you are missing it, neglecting your children in favor of reading a blog on the internet, run by a man you have never met.

Today, the weather is crappy (in my neck of the woods, anyway), so I will take a minute to scrawl out some thoughts. But really, go outside already.

When you are lying on your death bed, you are not going to regret never getting to read another stock picking article. If you are a normal man, you will probably regret not staring at clouds more often. Or gazing at the stars. Or feeling the warm breeze on your skin, standing by the water.

You may check in once per day to read my work. You have my permission. But other than that, get your ass outside. You’re not getting any younger, buddy.

Writing has been scant here because I have been following my own advise. Despite this neglect, my person is doing just fine. Year to date, my gains are just now over 16%. CCJ has pushed back above $20, and if it can recover to $23, I’ll be sitting inside 20% shortly.

Almost all my positions are higher. HCLP and BAS seem to be breathing, but that’s alright. Everything is holding up well.

Previous Posts by Mr. Cain Thaler