Pushing Up 1% Into The Last Hour

So far I’m seeing gains of just under 1% today, clearly led by HCLP. UEC is staging a recovery (I hope), but CCJ has turned lower.

The multifamily REITs AEC and MAA are digesting some of the latest move higher.

But I’m happy enough with this – we had a good day yesterday and every minute we aren’t collapsing is another minute the bears can tremor, thinking about the last five years and what their short selling addiction has gotten them thus far.

I’m not ruling out more volatility just yet – the NASDAQ has dispensed some horrendous fortunes – but I am constructively optimistic about my own.

BAS Just Saved My Day

If not for Basic Energy Services turning on a dime and sprinting away from the rest of the trash that comprises this trading session, I would be having a pretty bad day.

UEC is down over 50% since I bought it. Mind you, as I have stated repeatedly, it is a small position. At its peak, it was under 5% of my account. So I’m not panicked here. But damn it, that was my 5%.

Give me my money back.

The trouble with the uranium miners (and the reason I’ve been very adamant up until now to just keep it simple and avoid the smaller businesses) is pretty forwardly summed up in UEC’s latest filing. They sold $0.00 in revenue in the first three months of 2014.

That’s $0.00.

The 2014 YEAR OF URANIUM BLISS (or whatever the hell I called it) …has been cancelled. Uranium spot just nosedived this week and, even though I suspect this flash crash is nearer the end of the turmoil, that kind of godless price action can only portend one thing.

Somebody is about to get liquidated.

I just pray it isn’t UEC.

CCJ is treading water daily. It’s all she can do to hold the line, but one false move and it’s a quick list to the side and down she goes.

The rest of my positions are holding up fairly well, actually. The multifamily theme remains tantalizing, particularly now that the primary argument against them – a resurgence in homeownership rates and a drop in occupancy for rentals – is such obvious bunk. AEC and MAA should continue to perform.

NRP has held up decent enough, following the 25% washout it took this year. That’s probably been my worst idea so far in 2014. But they are getting things under control, I have a hunch coal may be a terrific investment here, and I get to collect 8% annually while I wait.

I’m definitely not +10% for the year anymore, but there’s another 8 months to make something happen yet. My fear isn’t my positions, it’s what consequence an entire index of investors getting their combined comeuppance will have on me.

The NASDAQ traders got stupid. Real stupid. Will that spill over to me? It’s looking likely.

Like it or not, the stock market tends to take on a real flare of the vineyard effect. You pop up five vineyards next to each other, they all do well. Plenty of room to visit each, for the patrons. In fact, it draws in more business.

But if one of those bastards let’s an infestation go unattended; suddenly you have nothing but tears and reek wine.

Tesla earnings are out after the bell. Let’s see what happens there.

The Market Sure Looks Terrible

We open our week where once beloved technology companies continue their unfolding tragedy, sinking otherwise well to do enterprises and frustrating the market at large.

I shouldn’t even have to deal with this crap, do to a longstanding decision to shun big multiples tech firms and keep that trash out of my portfolio. Sadly, thanks to a wanting of such self restraint on the part of co-shareholders in the positions that I do have, I get to participate in the selling right alongside the rest of you; as if I owned a start up tech IPO that was knee-capped to the tune of 50% out the gate, anyway.

BAS was given a relief rally of about 4% today, which of course cratered into lunch. That led TheStreet to confidently assert that BAS is merely “dead cat bouncing”. Of course, TheStreet has been equally confident that BAS was dead money from $14, so my personal opinion of their articles related to BAS should be easy enough to guess.

The only positions I own that aren’t dragging me lower seem to be the multifamily themes – AEC and MAA (and technically speaking my hedging…but only because the losses on my PGJ and TSLA puts have already been had).

In summary, the 9th floor is smarting today and I find myself fearing a bloodbath, derived solely from a selloff in positions I would never own anyway.

Huzzah…

First The Good News, Then The Bad

Most of my portfolio is now solidly shrugging off Yellen’s slip of the tongue. Our good bankster friends over at JPMorgan said it best – Yellen is fresh and inexperienced, and she still needs to learn how to speak without actually saying anything.

It will come. It will come.

Despite my state of shock at watching Yellen crack the market like an egg yesterday, I didn’t react. I want to watch a few more days before I make a move, even if they should lose me money. With a +14% year going, I have buffer room.

Now, the good word here is that CCJ and BAS are both moving higher. I suspect HCLP will join in soon as well (that position can be rewarded a little breather, it’s come a long way). The energy themes are solid and intact.

The bad side of the coin is that fear/reality of higher interest rates is going to just ravish the REIT and associated housing space. Check out VNQ over a five day period, and you can almost sink the cracking point up with Yellen’s comments. My current position AEC is breaking down again this morning, and an old position MAA is following.

This has to be treaded carefully. If you’re juggling garbage like NLY, I’d say you’re one four day panic away from another round of 30% losses.

I’ve said well before today, back when I never imagined Yellen would spook interest rates higher, that I was interested in rebuying MAA. This is sort of a blessing in that regards. I’d venture a guess that long term damage to multifamily REITs from higher interest rates will hover somewhere between “negligible” and “not damaging, actually positive”.

But well before that point, there will probably be a lot of indiscriminate selling from emotionally driven fund managers. The climax of that, if it should materialize, is the buying opportunity.

Between then and now, it’s important to keep a wary eye on reform efforts to Fannie and Freddie. There’s been some “bipartisan chatter”. Mortgage origination is >70% dominated by the government backed mortgage giants, and the entire housing market is totally dependent on them. A poorly thought out reform effort could rain chaos. But there’s no sense even having a discussion about that just yet. First things first, interest rates.

Another Day, Another Big Meltup

CCJ is up another 1.3%. BAS is fighting for a +3% on the day. HCLP wants to hit that $41.00 mark, currently up 1.67%. NRP (my only loser so far this year, down 20% from my purchase price) is up 3.3%, back above $16.00. AEC is racing +1.1%. UEC (small position) is up 2.4% (but that thing swings around $1.70 +/- 20%, so let’s just call it flat…).

Really, silver is the only thing I own that’s down. And my emergency put positions are essentially all worth $0.00 – so I took about another 2-3% loss this year from those.

I am looking to re-enter MAA at some point.

And YTD my account is soaring, well above +14% for 2014.

Look, these daily posts, reminding you of how much money I’m making; I get that they’re a little boring.

What do you want from me?

I’m not going to be spending my time researching new positions when I really just want to hang on to what I already have.

My advice to you is to hold on to the things you should have been buying when I was doing research. That’s the high reward play right now – to sit back and reap the fruits of our labors. This has been due for a few years now.

That and to fling manure at enemy politicians who are watching their public ratings getting sucked into a vortex.

Well That Ended Anticlimactically

Here I was thinking CCJ would go on an epic run, and instead it decided to reverse 4.6% on a lazy Friday afternoon.

On the plus side, it and my other main positions (BAS, AEC, HCLP) all seem to be resting just above the higher moving averages. I’m going to pretend like I care about TA for a minute and assume that means paved glory in my future, next week.

China sucks and I’m sitting around just praying PGJ gets assaulted. The BRIC thing is just really a load of garbage. They’ve been shoveling this shit to private retail money for twenty continuous years now; meanwhile, to this day, three of the above four letters in said acronym don’t even have primitive shareholder legal protections in place worth a damn.

Pathetic.

Putin is bringing down US drones and generally showing off now, as if the inability to feed and cloth his own people (or other such humiliating realities of that Russian Exceptionalism lifetstyle) were somehow forgettable next to the nostalgic grandeur of a grey haired, 62 year old man suffocating on his own bullshit.

Suffice to say, if Bush were still in office, Putin wouldn’t have the balls to be trying any of this. I know you Obama apologists will be leaping around like faggots now, whining at me for being “unfair”. What’s unfair is us living in this day and age and still needing to explain how incentives and behavior work to you stupid assholes. Choke on some humility coming off the trio of failures that are Obamacare, Foreign Policy, and the DOJ before you open your mouths in my comments section. Unless I’m mistaken, outcomes still matter more than pathetic excuses and “intent”.

The only one of the BRIC’s I would even look at is Brazil. Even there though, no need to get tangled up in the state owned populism. I’m content to just sit back, crack a beer, and watch Venezuela and Argentina burn to cinders.

I’m 25% cash, a little less cocky from this week, and certainly not up 14.5% anymore (though doing quite well).

Pushing Up 1% Into The Last Hour

So far I’m seeing gains of just under 1% today, clearly led by HCLP. UEC is staging a recovery (I hope), but CCJ has turned lower.

The multifamily REITs AEC and MAA are digesting some of the latest move higher.

But I’m happy enough with this – we had a good day yesterday and every minute we aren’t collapsing is another minute the bears can tremor, thinking about the last five years and what their short selling addiction has gotten them thus far.

I’m not ruling out more volatility just yet – the NASDAQ has dispensed some horrendous fortunes – but I am constructively optimistic about my own.

BAS Just Saved My Day

If not for Basic Energy Services turning on a dime and sprinting away from the rest of the trash that comprises this trading session, I would be having a pretty bad day.

UEC is down over 50% since I bought it. Mind you, as I have stated repeatedly, it is a small position. At its peak, it was under 5% of my account. So I’m not panicked here. But damn it, that was my 5%.

Give me my money back.

The trouble with the uranium miners (and the reason I’ve been very adamant up until now to just keep it simple and avoid the smaller businesses) is pretty forwardly summed up in UEC’s latest filing. They sold $0.00 in revenue in the first three months of 2014.

That’s $0.00.

The 2014 YEAR OF URANIUM BLISS (or whatever the hell I called it) …has been cancelled. Uranium spot just nosedived this week and, even though I suspect this flash crash is nearer the end of the turmoil, that kind of godless price action can only portend one thing.

Somebody is about to get liquidated.

I just pray it isn’t UEC.

CCJ is treading water daily. It’s all she can do to hold the line, but one false move and it’s a quick list to the side and down she goes.

The rest of my positions are holding up fairly well, actually. The multifamily theme remains tantalizing, particularly now that the primary argument against them – a resurgence in homeownership rates and a drop in occupancy for rentals – is such obvious bunk. AEC and MAA should continue to perform.

NRP has held up decent enough, following the 25% washout it took this year. That’s probably been my worst idea so far in 2014. But they are getting things under control, I have a hunch coal may be a terrific investment here, and I get to collect 8% annually while I wait.

I’m definitely not +10% for the year anymore, but there’s another 8 months to make something happen yet. My fear isn’t my positions, it’s what consequence an entire index of investors getting their combined comeuppance will have on me.

The NASDAQ traders got stupid. Real stupid. Will that spill over to me? It’s looking likely.

Like it or not, the stock market tends to take on a real flare of the vineyard effect. You pop up five vineyards next to each other, they all do well. Plenty of room to visit each, for the patrons. In fact, it draws in more business.

But if one of those bastards let’s an infestation go unattended; suddenly you have nothing but tears and reek wine.

Tesla earnings are out after the bell. Let’s see what happens there.

The Market Sure Looks Terrible

We open our week where once beloved technology companies continue their unfolding tragedy, sinking otherwise well to do enterprises and frustrating the market at large.

I shouldn’t even have to deal with this crap, do to a longstanding decision to shun big multiples tech firms and keep that trash out of my portfolio. Sadly, thanks to a wanting of such self restraint on the part of co-shareholders in the positions that I do have, I get to participate in the selling right alongside the rest of you; as if I owned a start up tech IPO that was knee-capped to the tune of 50% out the gate, anyway.

BAS was given a relief rally of about 4% today, which of course cratered into lunch. That led TheStreet to confidently assert that BAS is merely “dead cat bouncing”. Of course, TheStreet has been equally confident that BAS was dead money from $14, so my personal opinion of their articles related to BAS should be easy enough to guess.

The only positions I own that aren’t dragging me lower seem to be the multifamily themes – AEC and MAA (and technically speaking my hedging…but only because the losses on my PGJ and TSLA puts have already been had).

In summary, the 9th floor is smarting today and I find myself fearing a bloodbath, derived solely from a selloff in positions I would never own anyway.

Huzzah…

First The Good News, Then The Bad

Most of my portfolio is now solidly shrugging off Yellen’s slip of the tongue. Our good bankster friends over at JPMorgan said it best – Yellen is fresh and inexperienced, and she still needs to learn how to speak without actually saying anything.

It will come. It will come.

Despite my state of shock at watching Yellen crack the market like an egg yesterday, I didn’t react. I want to watch a few more days before I make a move, even if they should lose me money. With a +14% year going, I have buffer room.

Now, the good word here is that CCJ and BAS are both moving higher. I suspect HCLP will join in soon as well (that position can be rewarded a little breather, it’s come a long way). The energy themes are solid and intact.

The bad side of the coin is that fear/reality of higher interest rates is going to just ravish the REIT and associated housing space. Check out VNQ over a five day period, and you can almost sink the cracking point up with Yellen’s comments. My current position AEC is breaking down again this morning, and an old position MAA is following.

This has to be treaded carefully. If you’re juggling garbage like NLY, I’d say you’re one four day panic away from another round of 30% losses.

I’ve said well before today, back when I never imagined Yellen would spook interest rates higher, that I was interested in rebuying MAA. This is sort of a blessing in that regards. I’d venture a guess that long term damage to multifamily REITs from higher interest rates will hover somewhere between “negligible” and “not damaging, actually positive”.

But well before that point, there will probably be a lot of indiscriminate selling from emotionally driven fund managers. The climax of that, if it should materialize, is the buying opportunity.

Between then and now, it’s important to keep a wary eye on reform efforts to Fannie and Freddie. There’s been some “bipartisan chatter”. Mortgage origination is >70% dominated by the government backed mortgage giants, and the entire housing market is totally dependent on them. A poorly thought out reform effort could rain chaos. But there’s no sense even having a discussion about that just yet. First things first, interest rates.

Another Day, Another Big Meltup

CCJ is up another 1.3%. BAS is fighting for a +3% on the day. HCLP wants to hit that $41.00 mark, currently up 1.67%. NRP (my only loser so far this year, down 20% from my purchase price) is up 3.3%, back above $16.00. AEC is racing +1.1%. UEC (small position) is up 2.4% (but that thing swings around $1.70 +/- 20%, so let’s just call it flat…).

Really, silver is the only thing I own that’s down. And my emergency put positions are essentially all worth $0.00 – so I took about another 2-3% loss this year from those.

I am looking to re-enter MAA at some point.

And YTD my account is soaring, well above +14% for 2014.

Look, these daily posts, reminding you of how much money I’m making; I get that they’re a little boring.

What do you want from me?

I’m not going to be spending my time researching new positions when I really just want to hang on to what I already have.

My advice to you is to hold on to the things you should have been buying when I was doing research. That’s the high reward play right now – to sit back and reap the fruits of our labors. This has been due for a few years now.

That and to fling manure at enemy politicians who are watching their public ratings getting sucked into a vortex.

Well That Ended Anticlimactically

Here I was thinking CCJ would go on an epic run, and instead it decided to reverse 4.6% on a lazy Friday afternoon.

On the plus side, it and my other main positions (BAS, AEC, HCLP) all seem to be resting just above the higher moving averages. I’m going to pretend like I care about TA for a minute and assume that means paved glory in my future, next week.

China sucks and I’m sitting around just praying PGJ gets assaulted. The BRIC thing is just really a load of garbage. They’ve been shoveling this shit to private retail money for twenty continuous years now; meanwhile, to this day, three of the above four letters in said acronym don’t even have primitive shareholder legal protections in place worth a damn.

Pathetic.

Putin is bringing down US drones and generally showing off now, as if the inability to feed and cloth his own people (or other such humiliating realities of that Russian Exceptionalism lifetstyle) were somehow forgettable next to the nostalgic grandeur of a grey haired, 62 year old man suffocating on his own bullshit.

Suffice to say, if Bush were still in office, Putin wouldn’t have the balls to be trying any of this. I know you Obama apologists will be leaping around like faggots now, whining at me for being “unfair”. What’s unfair is us living in this day and age and still needing to explain how incentives and behavior work to you stupid assholes. Choke on some humility coming off the trio of failures that are Obamacare, Foreign Policy, and the DOJ before you open your mouths in my comments section. Unless I’m mistaken, outcomes still matter more than pathetic excuses and “intent”.

The only one of the BRIC’s I would even look at is Brazil. Even there though, no need to get tangled up in the state owned populism. I’m content to just sit back, crack a beer, and watch Venezuela and Argentina burn to cinders.

I’m 25% cash, a little less cocky from this week, and certainly not up 14.5% anymore (though doing quite well).

Previous Posts by Mr. Cain Thaler