I don’t know what idiots started the rumors that Yellen was a hawk, but they should have their reputations destroyed on live television. I can’t think of a single moment when Yellen skewed hawkish in Fed minutes or anywhere else in the body of her work over the last 5 years.

Consider this speech titled Perspectives On Monetary Policy she delivered last June to the Boston Economic Club.

She starts off:

Economic Conditions and the Outlook

In my remarks tonight, I will describe my perspective on monetary policy. To begin, however, I’ll highlight some of the current conditions and key features of the economic outlook that shape my views. To anticipate the main points, the economy appears to be expanding at a moderate pace. The unemployment rate is almost 1 percentage point lower than it was a year ago, but we are still far from full employment. Looking ahead, I anticipate that significant headwinds will continue to restrain the pace of the recovery so that the remaining employment gap is likely to close only slowly. At the same time, inflation (abstracting from the transitory effects of movements in oil prices) has been running near 2 percent over the past two years, and I expect it to remain at or below the Federal Open Market Committee’s (the FOMC’s) 2 percent objective for the foreseeable future. As always, considerable uncertainty attends the outlook for both growth and inflation; events could prove either more positive or negative than what I see as the most likely outcome. That said, as I will explain, I consider the balance of risks to be tilted toward a weaker economy.

She then goes on for some time, eventually remarking on the tools the Fed has been using to try and correct the sluggish economic recovery:

The Conduct of Policy with Unconventional Tools

Now turning to monetary policy, I will begin by discussing the FOMC’s reliance on unconventional tools to address the disappointing pace of recovery. I will then elaborate my rationale for supporting a highly accommodative policy stance.

As you know, since late 2008, the FOMC’s standard policy tool, the target federal funds rate, has been maintained at the zero lower bound. To provide further accommodation, we have employed two unconventional tools to support the recovery–extended forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate, and large-scale asset purchases and other balance sheet actions that have greatly increased the size and duration of the Federal Reserve’s portfolio.

Yellen then launches into a long explanation of the rationale for “Highly Accomodative Policy”, describing the statistical indicators and rules based decision making she likes to use to determine how accomodative policy should be extended. Finally, she wraps up her speech as such:

…On the one hand, our unconventional tools have some limitations and costs. For example, the effects of forward guidance are likely to be weaker the longer the horizon of the guidance, implying that it may be difficult to provide much more stimulus through this channel. As for our balance sheet operations, although we have now acquired some experience with this tool, there is still considerable uncertainty about its likely economic effects. Moreover, some have expressed concern that a substantial further expansion of the balance sheet could interfere with the Fed’s ability to execute a smooth exit from its accommodative policies at the appropriate time. I disagree with this view: The FOMC has tested a variety of tools to ensure that we will be able to raise short-term interest rates when needed while gradually returning the portfolio to a more normal size and composition. But even if unjustified, such concerns could in theory reduce confidence in the Federal Reserve and so lead to an undesired increase in inflation expectations.

On the other hand, risk management considerations arising from today’s unusual circumstances strengthen the case for additional accommodation beyond that called for by simple policy rules and optimal control under the modal outlook. In particular, as I have noted, there are a number of significant downside risks to the economic outlook, and hence it may well be appropriate to insure against adverse shocks that could push the economy into territory where a self-reinforcing downward spiral of economic weakness would be difficult to arrest.

Conclusion
In my remarks this evening I have sought to explain why, in my view, a highly accommodative monetary policy will remain appropriate for some time to come. My views concerning the stance of monetary policy reflect the FOMC’s firm commitment to the goals of maximum employment and stable prices, my appraisal of the medium term outlook (which is importantly shaped by the persistent legacy of the housing bust and ensuing financial crisis), and by my assessment of the balance of risks facing the economy. Of course, as I’ve emphasized, the outlook is uncertain and the Committee will need to adjust policy as appropriate as actual conditions unfold. For this reason, the FOMC’s forward guidance is explicitly conditioned on its anticipation of “low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run.”23 If the recovery were to proceed faster than expected or if inflation pressures were to pick up materially, the FOMC could adjust policy by bringing forward the expected date of tightening. In contrast, if the Committee judges that the recovery is proceeding at an insufficient pace, we could undertake portfolio actions such as additional asset purchases or a further maturity extension program. It is for this reason that the FOMC emphasized, in its statement following the April meeting, that it would “regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.”

Her “one hand” of comment seems to be the closest she comes, throughout the entire length of this speech, to suggesting that there could be drawbacks to “Highly Accomodative Policy”. That’s it; more of a formality than anything. Hell, she immediately says she disagrees with that point of view. The entire content of the speech was “we can do more.”

Yellen has consistently been on the record stating, “we can do more.”

Yellen has pushed for “we can do more.”

This was only a year ago. The recovery hasn’t dramatically improved since then. And this speech is just one example of Yellen being on the record dismissing concerns that Fed policy might become a double edged sword.

Yellen strikes me as the kind of Fed head that will be prone to taking Fed policy too far, into the danger zones of monetary interventionism, if anything. She believes in the notion that the Fed can actively micro-manage accomodative policy, with limited trade offs. While she is very much aware of the long term unpredictability of monetary policy tools, she is dismissive of the concerns.

And yesterday, Yellen was so kind to remind the people labelling her a hawk that they don’t know what they’re talking about. Those comments had no support from any observable Yellen comments or actions.

Appropriately, I really don’t think any taper is coming at any point over the next several years. Or, under Yellen’s discretion, any Fed actions, when taken in aggregate, will skew net dovish, with new programs more than overcompensating any individual restraining or contractionary policy move.

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Alright, it seems like the benevolent Tea Part folk have decided to share their complete inability to grasp simple concepts with the world, by forced contrition on the populace. It is time to eat our peas. Following the line of Obama’s hatred for those damn jet plane flying 1%-ers, the Tea Party have chosen to one up him, by destroying the 1% in its entirety. An unfortunate and slight side effect may be to destroy the other 99% of the country in the process, but hey…sometimes sacrifices must be born for the good of everyone. So making moves for the ill of everyone is the only logical course of action.

In an attempt to honor Argentina’s dim witted socialist president Fernández de Kirchner for her blood clot, the Tea Party have magnanimously extended a show of us revisiting that countries darkest moment, a point from which it has never recovered: elective default.

Remember that one time the global economy nearly collapsed because a single line of business for US banks bet large sums of money that non-creditworthy citizens would default at abnormally low rates in exchange for paper thin margins on those loans?

Well the entire global economy and all of finance has bet gargantuan sums of money that this non-creditworthy country will never default for no fucking margins.

By all means, how do you think this ends?

Frankly, I don’t care anymore, and am all in. Lay your neck under the axe, and taunt these pussies with all your hatred. See if they have the sack to swing.

What’s the alternative? You can turn all short doubling your money with the end of civilization, just in time to burn it to stay warm? You can barter that paper desperately for some precious metals that aren’t for sale? You can get shot by rioters and have it taken off your corpse?

Because if we actually default, it’ll be to late to go out and prepare. Just think of all the mechanisms that are tied to treasuries. There will be bank failures. And a slow, agonizing process as US spending on interest careens towards $1 trillion annually.

In the meantime, staying in our means would require we basically slash in half one of the following:

The entire defense budget OR
The entire non-defense budget

The point of the matter is that if we default, this place is going to get so screwed up anyway, what does it matter? At some point if the decision were not reversed, the man you know as Cain Hammond Thaler would simply cease to exist. His 9th floor office would be deserted; the only clue that he was ever there at all being an empty safe that used to house his silver and firearms and row upon row of cleaned out bookshelves.

I would simply take up my favorite pocket watch and walking stick, and slip away into the night…never to be heard from again.

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This morning, Italy announced they are now in the 8th consecutive quarter of economic decline. Do you understand how crazy that is?

In the 9th floor, a cool air drafts around my slippers, sneaking in to touch my feet. The black tea in my mug gives off a warmth to the touch, and the paper between my fingers stains the skin lightly. Dim shadows from the clouds outside the windows provides the need for a lamp on the side table that casts humming of electricity, while I read.

Italy, and all of the EU, are subjecting themselves to needless pain, just so that some dim witted economists and politicians from the 90’s can continue to enjoy the benefits of a legacy!

The thread that holds the eurozone together has slipped and is now strangling the wearer. But these fools won’t cut themselves free from some misplaced fear of tattering the shirt!

Fine; they’ve chosen their coffin. Do you believe, dear man reading over my shoulder, that we are near a bottom, just because numbers came in “better than expected”? Wrong!

These policy wonks have been calling for a bottom, always two quarters out, for two consecutive years now. They fail because they fail to grasp the intricacies of the problem. The debt maturities are breaking against the wall. Each crest that is survived simply marks a trivial point before the next wall of water raises up.

There’s one path for Europa, and that is the destruction of the euro. They may dismantle the debt instruments directing it, or they may dilute it directly. Their cheap side games are distracting from the main choice at hand, which is that the continent cannot survive if it allows itself to be dragged beneath the surface, anchored by the stubborness of those that created this mess in the first place.

As we are now almost three years past the start of the EZ crisis, my fears of Europe derailing US markets is on soft footing. However, even if America should rise above our distant cousins, and leave us sitting, as here in my office, watching curiously as distant spectators, my sympathies for what our brothers are being wrongly subjugated to stand.

There is no reason that a quarter of Spain should be sitting idle. There is no reason that almost a fifth of Portugal should be in despair. There is no reason that over half of Greek youth should be permitted to sink into shambles of anarchy.

There is no reason for any of this, other than the pride of a few.

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Dollar up, oil up, treasury yields up, stocks slightly off, PM’s flat – sure, why try and make it consistent. It’s a non-linear world we live in folks. Get used to it.

Your market correlation models are getting blown to pieces this morning, as the movements reset. Really, yields can’t correlate with markets forever; sooner or later the transient correlations lead risk exposure by the halter to unsustainable levels. Blow ups follow.

I see no reason why markets can’t selloff even though yields are pushing up. With treasuries so inflated, they will be prone to massive directional moves that might belie the rules of thumb of “teeter-totter” purchasing patterns. I mistrust those who say otherwise.

Interference in markets from the huge players has primed the classical views of markets for disconnection. Especially at the turning ranges, things are prone to get very weird.

Personally, I’m not ready to completely abandon the market rally just yet. We haven’t confirmed the move in any direction. But I have raised a cash stake, which I will guard jealously. And when the rally is finished, I all but guarantee anyone trying to use a purely correlary approach to defining the turn will be left for dead.

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I opened a position in EUO for $18.25. This is a starter position, which I will add to every few weeks/months.

Remember, every time thus far that European authorities have put claim on “the end of the crisis being just in sight”, it has come back to haunt them.

They are playing a confidence game. The realities of the situation are different. Just below the surface, trouble is brewing.

Remember that.

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You think this makes sense do you? US markets are ramping to levels not seen since the last, great bull market. The debt of countries like Italy (where ex-president and child rapist Berlusconi is threatening to splinter the votes to ungovernable ends) and Spain (where a quarter of the youth are disaffected, unable to start their lives and about one tenth of the land mass is preparing for secession) are trading for yields that are really, reasonable. Oil is spiking towards the $100 mark – meanwhile Europe remains marred in recession and Germany just joined them. Oil stockpiles are increasing.

Precious metals are collapsing in price and the Fed is printing $80 billion a month.

In short, my dear reader, you are out of your minds.

But that is all right. You see, I foresaw your absurdity – your complete mental breakdown – months ago. I prepared for this. I realized, “this makes no sense”, and because it made no sense, I knew you would act this way. How else would the crazy behave in a crazy world?

So I did the opposite of what makes sense. And I did it first, before you.

Now, let’s chat about the euro. The $EURUSD is completely deranged. If it were a person, it would be a homeless man who found a tattered tuxedo, and is presently running around, hiding in steam vents in the middle of the street in Detroit. But, by some divine joke, this homeless man has been mistaken for a titan of industry, and is currently invited to all the high social class dinners.

“Aaaaahahghgh”, he gurgles in reply to requests for his opinion on gun control.

“EEEEAAAA”, he says when asked for advice on pre-tax 401K versus Roth.

And then he proceeds to eat his napkin with an olive fork.

Now let’s chat about oil. Oil is going way lower. The US economic numbers and forecasts are, again, way off, again. This is really not very funny anymore. How ten thousand economists can blow this year after year, never bothering to even pretend to learn from their mistakes the year prior…they should all be fired and stripped of their degrees. Pathetic…

Plus, Europe remains in a spiral. Germany, the heart of the EU, has finally entered recession this year. Question: knowing German culture, do you think that will make them more or less willing to work with their fellow member states?

Wait, don’t answer that. I’ll answer it for you. “It will make them less likely to work with their peers.”

Very good me, have a reward.

Why thank you.

German’s are going to increasingly view the rest of Europe as a useless bundle. If German wellbeing takes a hit, they’re culturally predisposed to blaming Italy or Spain or France for dragging them down with their wild schemes and self-centered demands. If Germany was reluctant to sit by and watch Draghi open the ECB doors to distressed banks before, wait until their worst prejudices are confirmed. Free money was supposed to help Europe, remember? Germany goes into recession and they’ll make sure the Bundesbank does everything within its power to hamper the rest of the EU at every turn.

Now let’s chat about housing. Housing prices are going higher, but that’s not going to help you sell that third, four bedroom house you’ve been desperately clinging to, praying for a buyer. Your retirement plans are shot, pal. Prices are going higher, but sales volumes are staying depressed. The housing recovery, like most luxuries, is reserved for the rich.

Now let’s chat about bonds. Safe haven bonds have got one major push left in them. I don’t expect the US 10 year to clear 2%. Meanwhile, bonds of Italy, Spain, Greece, etc are WAY too high. They are going to be taken out back to the woodshed before summer.

After that, I’m going to reinvestigate building a short position in American treasuries. We’re one major push in commodity prices from the Fed being strung up without any options for recourse. Because they’ve decided to load up on assets yielding 2%, they really don’t have much in the way of choices for controlling the money supply, unless they want to jack up the discount rate and watch the banks crash screaming back into bankruptcy. The economy is going to become increasingly wild, like a Stallion that got away from the Spanish.

For the moment, bet on the Fed and bet on higher prices. But always remember, in the back of your mind, that trouble cannot be vanished with the wave of a wand. Problems will always materialize in some way, and if not addressed, the consequences of those deviations can build to tremendous proportions.

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