Needless to say, I decided to edge long at exactly the wrong time. Ben suckered me in, and my once strong 30% cash position has been whittled away to a mere 10%.
This selloff is going to hurt, delivering its full force directly against the 9th floor, shaking the very walls.
But I find that I am willing to wait it out. The concerns that are driving this selloff are immaterial.
Spanish insolvency, fiscal cliffs, Chinese communists and Ben’s retirement – the four horsemen are dotting the sky and Twitter is like a dumping ground for snarky comments.
Earnings and growth are slowing and Bob Pisani is nowhere to be found.
The funny thing is I was sitting around in exactly the position of the bears this time last year, guffawing in between comments of doom and chugging from a golden chalice.
Let me tell you how this ends for the shorts.
First, they get run over by a stampeding flock of turkey’s. Seasonality adjustments and earnings projections tick up with bad modeling methods. A bottom in housing prices is called for the spring. Employment looks extra rosy with the holiday shopping.
Then Santa comes and mows the surviving shorts down with his sleigh.
This is how the holiday season works.
Let’s review the “impending demise” of civilization. Spanish insolvency can be flooded with EU money. The EU collapse comes from price inflation and manufacturing contraction, not outright defaults. Chinese communists are scary but China can’t exactly afford to have foreign investment flee the country at this precise moment. The fiscal cliff can be voted away.
And after his presidential inauguration, Mitt Romney is going to be ushered into a back room where central bankers will begin the process of extorting him. But even if they fail, Ben has plenty of time to sink so much money into dark pools there’s no chance of reversing his policies.
Why do we need to embrace the end of humanity right now? It’s the holidays. Can’t it wait until next June?